489
FXUS61 KCLE 110533
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
133 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move eastward across Michigan and southern
Ontario today with a cold front crossing the region. A trough
will linger over the region into Saturday night, but expect high
pressure to return Sunday into early Monday. The next system
will approach from the west Monday afternoon or evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure is expected to move across the central and eastern
Great Lakes today with a cold front move west to east with it.
Lift will increase along and ahead of the cold front with some
assistance of a 5H jet that moves over OH through the day.
Cooler air aloft will also assist with steepening middle level
lapse rates which could lead to some small hail near and east of
I-71 with the stronger convection this afternoon. Fortunately it
doesnt look like enough low level instability for us to worry
about severe thunderstorms. The showers and thunderstorms should
quickly move west to east with the cold front through mid
afternoon. We then will see how long the showers can persist in
the wake of the cold front with some lake enhancement possible
into early Sunday morning across NE OH into NW PA.

It will be a chilly morning across NW PA with a few spots
seeing temperatures dip into the upper 30`s with some patchy
frost possible across eastern Erie and Crawford Counties.
Elsewhere the increasing clouds and winds should keep
temperatures in the 40`s. Cloud cover, the rain and the cold
front crossing the region will combine to keep highs down a bit
today with a range from the upper 50`s across inland NW PA to
the lower 60`s west. Westerly winds likely become gusty in the
wake of the cold front with a few spots seeing gusts up to 35
mph. Skies should clear across NW OH tonight but the flow over
the lake should limit the decrease in cloud cover across NE OH
into NW PA until Sunday. Lows tonight should be in the 40`s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions will be drying out on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure
builds east through the Ohio Valley. The upper level low starting
the day near Erie, PA will move off the East Coast by Sunday
evening. Can not rule out a couple light morning showers in the far
east but these should end during the morning. A cooler airmass will
linger in Northwest Pennsylvania on Sunday with high temperatures
limited to around 60 degrees while warm advection develops in our
western counties with highs recovering into the low 70s. Some mid
and high cloud is possible ahead of another piece of shortwave
energy moving through the northwest flow aloft.

By Monday, a closed upper level low will be moving east across the
Plains states while another upper level low passes near James Bay.
Monday will feature above normal temperatures in the warm sector
ahead of a cold front slowly sinking south into the Great Lakes.
This front tends to stall north of Lake Erie on Monday with some
amplification of the upper level ridge moving out of the Plains.
Moisture will be on the increase Monday afternoon and night with
marginal instability developing across mainly northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms
can be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term will start off with active weather as energy streams
north ahead of the trough over the Mississippi Valley. Tuesday looks
to be the wettest day of the week with good moisture convergence as
the front eventually starts to settle south into the area. Surface
low pressure will slide east through the Ohio Valley and expect
instability to be limited north of the low. Temperatures drop back
into the 60s with clouds and showers. The trough shifts to the
Carolina Coast by Wednesday with high pressure returning to the
Central Great Lakes. Showers should generally be ending with clouds
clearing and temperatures trending warmer as the ridge builds
aloft towards the end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A cold front is expected to sweep west to east across the
region today with southerly winds expected ahead of it. In its
wake westerly winds may gust to 30 knots.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
ahead of the cold front. The chances of thunder are greatest
near and east of a line from KLPR to KMNN. There may be some
small hail with the strongest thunderstorms. Most locations
remain VFR except with the thunderstorms that briefly impact
the region.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night. Non-VFR possible in showers
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for all of the Ohio
Nearshore Waters for Saturday and Saturday night with the strong
flow behind the cold front.

Previous Discussion...
A ridge will build east across Lake Erie tonight with winds backing
to the south. Winds will increase to 15-20 knots ahead of a low
pressure system moving from Michigan towards Lake Ontario. This
system will pull a cold front east across Lake Erie with winds
veering to northwest behind the front. Conditions will be close to
needing a Small Craft Advisory by Saturday night for the Ohio
waters, generally east of the Lake Erie Islands. Waves are
expected to build to 3 to 5 feet but the duration will only be
for about 12 hours.

A ridge will build north into the Ohio Valley on Sunday with marine
conditions improving quickly. Southwest winds increase to 10-20
knots ahead of a front slowly approaching from the north Sunday
night into Monday. This front will stall near or just north of the
lake into Tuesday before finally pushing south.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening
     for LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Sunday for LEZ145>148.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...KEC/Sullivan