128
FXUS62 KFFC 091519
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1119 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Forecast generally remains on track. Initial line of tstms continues
to slowly push S and presently extends from Sandersville to N of
Macon to Columbus. Secondary batch of tstms associated with an MCS
moving SE from N central AL into the Atlanta metro area will continue
to push the mass of convection southward through the day. Storms
continue to be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail,
frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall along with isolated
tornadoes. Some northern counties in Tornado Watch number 216 have
been shaved off, and the remainder of that watch continues through 1
PM. Tornado Watch number 217 was issued earlier for the remainder of
our S counties, and this watch runs until 5 PM. High res model
guidance suggests most of the storms will be S of the area by late
afternoon. /SEC


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Active weather anticipated again today as a second MCS moves through
the CWA.

Early morning convection (MCS #1) is moving off to the east.

MCS #2 is currently winding up across western TN. This system will
advance eastward through the overnight hours and move through the
CWA today. Models have been fairly consistent on the timing of this
system over the last couple of days. The MCS should approach the far
NW corner of the CWA around 10-12Z and then continue southward. The
far northern portion of the outlook area should be well worked over
as the MCS approaches, but a few strong storms with isolated severe
storms will continue to be possible.

As the MCS moves south of the north GA mtns, the potential for
severe weather will increase fairly rapidly as this area is not
worked over and there will be plenty of moisture and instability to
work with. In addition, plenty of deep layer shear will be present
and lapse rates remain impressively steep. Damaging wind gusts,
large hail and a few tornadoes will all be possible. The MCS should
travel southward across the entire CWA through the early afternoon
hours.

The models are progging a late period MCS (MCS #3) approaching from
the west late tonight/every early Friday. The HRRR seems to be the
most reasonable hi-res model regarding this convective complex.
There will likely be some timing changes and some slight track
adjustments, but do think the bulk of strong/severe storms with this
system could remain south of the CWA. The entire CWA should be well
worked over from the MCS (#2) from earlier in the day. Not sure if
the atmos across the southern quarter of the CWA will have enough
time to recover for strong/severe thunderstorms. However, due to the
uncertainty regarding these types of systems, will leave in some
higher pops in that area. Can`t rule out the potential for strong
and/or isolated storms in that area, but the potential should be low
during the early morning hours.

The early morning MCS (#1) has produced some locally heavy rainfall
across northern portions of the CWA. Radar estimates/observations
show some 3"-4" amounts across far NW GA...with a axis of 1"-2"
extending further eastward. The second MCS is expected to be a fast
mover, but will be capable of producing additional locally heavy
rainfall. Will hold off issuing a FFA at this time, but do expect
locally higher amounts of rainfall.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Previous Discussion Below

A brief period of dry and slightly cooler weather is expected
this weekend as we return to northwest flow aloft. Rain chances
look to return to the region next week as another low pressure
system developing in the Southern Plains moves eastward.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Convective complex will move through during the early part of the
day. The timing may be an hour or so later than previous
forecasts, but there has been a steady uptick of storms out ahead
of the main line. Will keep the tempo as is, but it may have to be
extended. Winds will remain on the west side.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.
NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  82  52  77 /  20  20   0   0
Atlanta         66  80  54  76 /  20  20   0   0
Blairsville     58  72  45  69 /  10  10   0  10
Cartersville    62  79  49  76 /  10  10   0   0
Columbus        69  84  57  80 /  60  50   0   0
Gainesville     64  79  53  75 /  10  10   0   0
Macon           69  84  56  79 /  30  30   0   0
Rome            63  79  51  76 /  10  10   0   0
Peachtree City  65  83  52  78 /  20  20   0   0
Vidalia         71  82  60  80 /  30  60  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...NListemaa