706
FXUS62 KFFC 190747
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
347 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

An elongated, positively tilted 500 mb shortwave is currently moving
over the forecast area at the time of writing. Positive vorticity
advection in the base of the trough, weak upper level divergence,
and an abundance of moisture in the lower levels are helping to
initiate a few light showers over far north Georgia early this
morning. The otherwise moist surface conditions thanks to yesterday
evening`s round of rain and calm winds have produced patchy areas of
intermittent dense fog across the forecast area. A few locations
this morning have had visibilities reduced to less than a quarter
statute mile. Have opted to issue an SPS for areas along and north
of the I-85 corridor through 10am local time given the spotty and
intermittent nature of the dense fog. An upgrade for some areas to a
Dense Fog Advisory may be warranted if visibilities continue to
deteriorate over the course of the next few hours.

Light shower activity will continue to drift southward early this
morning as the trough moves eastward bringing showers to the metro
during the mid morning hours (though an isolated rumble of thunder
cannot be ruled out). The progression of the upper level trough will
also help the surface low slide a surface boundary southeastward and
serve as the focus for showers and thunderstorms across eastern
central Georgia during the late morning/early afternoon hours as
surface instability is reinvigorated through diurnal heating (SBCAPE
~1000-2000 J/kg). With better forcing at the surface and some upper
level support, there could be a few strong thunderstorms across
eastern central Georgia where the seabreeze may infiltrate later
this afternoon. A Marginal Risk has clipped a handful of our far
southeastern counties where an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out today.

Overnight, as the system makes its exit off the eastern seaboard,
ridging aloft will become established along the spine of the
Appalachians as surface high pressure develops in the leeside. While
most locations will experience sunny, dry weather on Tuesday,
upslope orographic convective initiation will produce a low end
chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms across far northeast
Georgia in the afternoon hours. QPF through the period will hover +/-
a quarter of an inch where locally higher amounts of a 1.0+" are
possible in areas of convective activity today and tomorrow. Today`s
high temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, but will
rebound tomorrow closer to normal where high temperatures will be in
the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will run in the upper 50s to low
60s.

KAL

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

On Monday night, the positively tilted upper trough will continue to
move eastward into the Atlantic as an upper ridge sets up over the
eastern CONUS. By the beginning of the long term period, this ridge
will extend from the north-central Gulf into New England. A weak
shortwave will traverse the flow on the northwest side of the ridge.
However, any sensible impacts from this disturbance will stay well
to the north of the forecast area. Surface high pressure associated
with the ridge and centered to the northeast of the forecast area
will also largely serve to inhibit precipitation from Monday night
into Tuesday. After low temperatures start the morning on Tuesday in
the upper 50s to low 60s, a warming trend can be expected through
midweek. Highs are forecast to climb into mainly the mid 80s on
Tuesday afternoon, and then into the upper 80s on Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures will be locally cooler in the higher
elevations of far northeast Georgia. High temperatures through the
remainder of the long term period will range from the mid 80s in
north Georgia to the low 90s in south-central Georgia each afternoon.

A deepening upper low will move from the northern Plains towards the
Great Lakes region on Wednesday, at which time the axis of the ridge
will clear Georgia to the east. Southwesterly upper flow between the
low and the ridge will enter north Georgia, leading to increasing
atmospheric moisture. As the low pressure system becomes occluded
and moves into southeast Canada, a cold front will advance slowly
southward into the Tennessee Valley region by Wednesday night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to spread into far
north Georgia by early Thursday morning. As the low continues to
move away to the northeast, the frontal boundary will become more
elongated from west to east, and its southward advance will begin to
slow. As such, PoPs on Thursday will mostly be confined to north
Georgia, with chance PoPs to the north of I-20 and progressively
lower chances to the south. By Friday morning, the frontal
boundary is forecast to stall near the Georgia/Tennessee state
line. Model guidance appears to be coming into better agreement on
a shortwave traversing the westerlies and from the Lower
Mississippi River Valley across the Southeast on Friday. This
setup would bring more numerous showers and thunderstorms to the
forecast area on Friday, especially the wave overruns the stalled
frontal boundary, providing a focus for additional convection.King

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Mixed bag of cigs/vsbys across TAF terminals. Northern TAF sites
will be trending towards IFR/LIFR cigs and vsbys over the course
of the early morning hours. Intermittent periods of VV002/VV001
and 1/2SM will be possibly through sunrise with improvement to
MVFR/VFR by the late morning/early afternoon. -SHRA will also be
possible for the metro locations from roughly 12 to 16Z with -TSRA
possible at AHN. Non- zero chance that metro locations could see
-TSRA during this time frame but confidence is too low to include
in the TAF at this time. MCN will see -TSRA later this afternoon
between 17 and 21Z. Calm/NW winds will become NE at or just after
13Z today at 5KT or less.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on winds. Medium confidence on remaining elements.

KAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          78  59  82  59 /  30   0   0   0
Atlanta         79  61  83  62 /  30   0   0   0
Blairsville     76  56  79  57 /  40  20  20   0
Cartersville    81  60  84  60 /  30  10   0   0
Columbus        83  64  84  62 /  20   0   0   0
Gainesville     78  61  82  62 /  30  10  10   0
Macon           80  61  83  61 /  30  10  10   0
Rome            83  61  85  61 /  20  10   0   0
Peachtree City  80  60  83  59 /  20   0   0   0
Vidalia         83  64  83  62 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...KAL