Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 141946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
246 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

A quiet short term period through tomorrow with high pressure
maintaining control across the Upper Midwest. Weak frontal
boundary moved through today and winds have turned northwesterly.
This area of high pressure will continue sinking in from our
north, and overnight lows should fall off efficiently under clear
skies with light winds. Expect widespread teens by tomorrow
morning, with low 20s in the metro.

Sunny skies again tomorrow but slightly cooler temperatures are
expected under northerly flow. Meanwhile, a large trough across
the western CONUS will be in the process of spawning a surface low
along the lee of the rockies, which will begin to eject tomorrow

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

The aforementioned surface low will eject eastward Thursday night.
The system looks to take a due east track, will deepen in eastern
CO/western Kansas. It will quickly become vertically stacked very
quickly, and begin filling as it progresses east toward Missouri.
For our area, it looks like far southern MN could get grazed with
light snow Friday night into Saturday, but the trend today in the
models was for a decreasing chance for precipitation as the system
falls wraps up and dry air in place locally wins out.

After a few dry days and temperatures within a few degrees of
normal, another cyclone will emerge from the Rockies again on
Sunday night. This one also looks to take a due east track
through the mid-Mississippi Valley, keep us dry but cool as we
reach middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Very quiet period ahead. Winds have turned W to NW across the area
and will slowly turn N tonight, then NE tomorrow. Clear skies are
expected for the most part. But, there is a stratus shield heading
south through western Ontario. Dry air should win out against this
moisture as most of it looks to head south-southeast through
Wisconsin. Did include a mention of clouds in RNH and EAU
overnight to account for this. additional concerns.

FRI...VFR. Wind E at 15G20 kts.
SAT...VFR. Slight chance of MVFR. Wind S at 05 kts.
SUN...MVFR possible.  Wind E 5-10 kts.




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