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FXUS63 KMPX 261201
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
601 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures are expected through much of the
  week with little to no chances for precip through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

It`s quiet... but not too quiet because we`ll see an increase in
winds again today. They`ll primarily be from the southwest this
time around, and with plenty of sunshine overhead it`ll likely
feel like a nicer day outside. These southwesterly winds will
persist around 10 to 15 mph overnight, keeping lows relatively
mild tomorrow morning. We start the work week situated between a
deepening surface low to the northeast and a surface high to
the southwest. This will allow much of the region to climb above
freezing for the first time since January 17th (parts of
southwest Minnesota may hit this mark today).

A weak clipper will skirt across Minnesota and Wisconsin on
Tuesday, resulting in a pretty large gradient in temperatures:
southwest MN could climb well into the 40s while parts of east
central MN and northwestern WI may struggle to reach above
freezing depending on the exact track of the low. Polk, Barron,
and Rusk counties will have the best chance at seeing
accumulating snow, however the bulk of QPF will stay in northern
MN and WI. The 00z LREF gives these counties roughly a 10 to 30
percent chance of 0.5" or more of snowfall.

The slight cooldown on Wednesday following the fropa Tuesday
night will be short-lived as another low slides across southern
Canada on Thursday. The Upper Midwest will stay dry and mild
heading into the weekend. Long range models continue to try to
parse out the pattern breakdown this weekend, but there is still
too much spread to discern a most likely forecast. It is not
uncommon to see models struggle with blocking patterns such as
this one, as such, forecast confidence could remain low until we
are 2-3 days out at least. Both the GFS and Euro ensembles
present outcomes that would keep us completely dry (the cutoff
low slides east quicker and stays well south) and wet (the
cutoff low progresses east slower and kicks a bit further
north). Right now the trend favors a southern track, but we are
still 6-7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

VFR throughout this duration with no precip/visibility/ceiling
concerns. Issues will be surface winds and LLWS. By late this
morning, breezy/gusty SW winds will develop, with speeds around
15G25kts. Such surface winds will persist through tonight and
Monday morning. However, strong low level jetting will develop
overnight, impacting all sites except MKT within this duration.

KMSP...Benign conditions expected through this evening with LLWS
conditions developing overnight through much of Monday morning.
Westerly winds near 2 kft will reach speeds of 40-50kts while
surface winds will run SW 10-15kts with gusts to near 20kts.
LLWS conditions will subside after the morning push.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC