Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 042003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
303 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Key Messages:

- Clouds eventually depart from west to east this evening, with
  partly cloudy skies overnight into tomorrow. A few sprinkles or
  isolated showers are possible in central Minnesota and northern
  Wisconsin tomorrow afternoon and evening, with a better chance for
  more widespread rain on Friday.

- Cooler temperatures as we approach the weekend, with highs in the
  50s this weekend. We warm up a bit towards the 60s again next week.
  Frost looks possible outside of the Twin Cities metro this weekend
  with lows in the mid 30s.

Discussion... Satellite imagery this afternoon continues to show
widespread cloud cover across the majority of the MPX CWA, with
clearing very slow to begin over western Minnesota. This clearing is
expected to spread eastwards as we progress towards the evening,
however it may not be in time to give us any meaningful sunshine
before sunset across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A few
drops could be squeezed out of the low stratus deck in central
Minnesota, but we should remain dry across the entire area with no
measurable rainfall for the rest of today. Further cloud cover and
isolated showers or sprinkles will arrive overnight into early
Thursday for central Minnesota, continuing until our next system
passes on Friday. A compact trough will slowly sink southwards
towards the area, with the axis finally arriving with enhanced mid-
level forcing by midday Friday. Right now, the setup would favor the
heaviest rain from eastern Minnesota to western Wisconsin as a PV
anomaly and falling heights focus on the eastern side of the trough
in western Minnesota to western Wisconsin, with good agreement
between deterministic models as to where this heavier axis of
rainfall ends up. It would also be within the realm of possibility
that as we get a bit later into the event towards Friday night into
Saturday morning, a few flakes become possible as the surface
temperatures cool into the 30s and 40s with cooler temperatures
aloft. This would end up non-accumulating as our QPF drops off
significantly by 00z Friday.

Cooler temperatures prevail behind this system through the weekend
with some recovery towards normal into the middle of next week.
Highs will range in the low to mid 50s Saturday through Monday with
lows in the mid 30s outside of the metro to near 40 within the metro
area. Highs return to the 60s by midweek with lows in the 40s with
lack of significant sensible weather or precipitation after Friday.
There are some hints of another larger system towards the end of
next week, however confidence is too low to bring up the form this
looks to take for now, just keep it in the back of your mind.

One special note given the time of year, with the cool down this
weekend and current fall colors, this weekend likely ends up being
the peak for color season in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and it would
be a good idea to get your fill of the vibrant colors we are known
for before the leaves begin to drop even further!


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Main concerns this period will be borderline MVFR/VFR cigs this
afternoon, followed by gusty west winds on Thursday. Several spots of
cigs below 3kft right now should eventually lift into VFR over the
next 2 hours, and gradually scatter from west to east later this
evening and overnight. Cold frontal passage late Thursday morning
will bring gusty west winds as high as 25 kts.

KMSP...Cigs currently flirting MVFR/VFR will become solidly VFR over
the next hour or two, then scatter out by sunset. West winds with a
few gusts over 15kts this afternoon, becoming lighter and backing to
SWerly tonight, then gusting from the west by 16Z Thurs.

Friday...MVFR with showers likely. Northwest wind 10 to 20 kt.
Friday night...MVFR possible early with a chance of showers.
Northwest wind 5 to 15 kt. Saturday...VFR. Northwest wind less than
10 kt. Saturday night...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.
Sunday...VFR. Variable wind 5 kt or less.




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