Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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186
FXUS63 KMPX 161727
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

.UPDATED for 18Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Not much change in the short term forecast as a large storm system
that was centered across the Rockies early this morning will move
out into the Plains today, and spread precipitation across the
central part of the CONUS. A secondary system was moving southeast
across south central Canada. This system will merge with the storm
system over the Rockies this weekend. Most of our region will be
controlled by a drier northerly flow in the boundary layer, keeping
the precipitation south of us. However, mid to high level cloudiness
will accompany the northern stream system later tonight and into
Saturday. Where more sunshine exist across eastern Minnesota and
west central Wisconsin, temperatures will rise into the mid to upper
50s. Under the denser cloud cover to the southwest, temperatures
will hold in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures will be
similar on Saturday but slightly warmer in the southwest due to as
more sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Southwest flow Saturday night and Sunday will keep temperatures close
to normal, but a cold front will sag south with an approaching trough
Sunday night. A band of post-frontal precipitation will also pass
through late Sunday night and early Monday morning. Temperatures will
crash through the 30s as the precipitation moves in, so expecting a
rain and snow mix across much of the area, with more snow north and
more rain south. The current official QPF is about a tenth of an
inch, but there is a fair amount of guidance that is higher, even
near a quarter inch. If the heavier QPF pans out, there may be some
light snow accumulation. However, given that the band will be narrow
and quick moving, it should have a short residence time over any
given location. Therefore, the lower QPF seems like a good bet. In
that case, only minor accumulation is expected.

A cold airmass will remain in place early next week. Several
disturbances within the trough could generate pockets of rain/snow
showers Tuesday. Left the forecast dry for now, but there may be a
need to introduce some low PoPs at some point if the trend continues.

The trough will lift out slowly midweek with below normal
temperatures until late week when some modest ridging builds in. The
latest trends are to squash the ridge by next weekend with another
shot of cold air, but if the trough misses us to the east as the GFS
and Canadian indicate then it could be much milder. The ensemble spread
is rather large beyond mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

VFR conditions throughout at most locations with some mid level
clouds moving in later tonight into Saturday. There is a chance for
MVFR conditions and some light rain at KAXN, and possibly KRWF. Winds
will be northerly throughout.

KMSP...
VFR with no weather-related aviation concerns. Northerly winds
throughout.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Winds W 10kts.
MON...MVFR with chc -ra/-sn in mrng. Winds NW 15-20G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW at 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...JRB



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