446
FXUS63 KMPX 112000
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
300 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke/haze aloft continues through tomorrow before beginning
  to improve.

- Moisture associated with Hurricane Francine will be advected
  northward by this weekend, leading to increased chances for
  showers across portions of the forecast area.

- Temperatures will continue to run some 10 degrees above normal through
  the end of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Another day of smoky sunshine is ongoing across the region this
afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Only subtle
changes in the weather are expected over the next day or so, with
tomorrow being the warmest day of the period. As Hurricane Francine
comes ashore along the Louisiana coast this evening and continues to
push northward through the end of the week, it will impact the
overall upper flow across the central CONUS. The weak flow we`ve had
for the past few days will become southerly as we find ourselves
caught between the 500mb ridge over the Great Lakes and a deepening
upper low over the western Dakotas that will be forced northward
into Canada. This shake up in the flow should also help move some of
the smoke aloft out of the region. The warm front associated with
the western low will lift across Minnesota and western
Wisconsin by early tomorrow, allowing highs to climb into the
mid to upper 80s. This will also work to advect in some of the
tropical moisture as we head into the weekend. Depending on
where all these features end up, far western Minnesota may see
some showers Friday if the associated front can make it far
enough east. The best chance for precip looks to be further east
across western Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota Friday night
through late Saturday. However, QPF amounts will only be on the
order of a few hundredths to maybe a tenth of an inch at best.

Outside of this, our dry weather will continue through the middle of
next week, with temperatures continuing to run some 10 degrees above
normal. Additional rain chances make their way into the forecast to
end the period and beyond. Ensembles show a decent signal at this
time range for some more meaningful precip to close out the end of
next week, so that will be something to watch.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period, with only mid-high clouds
expected today. Winds will generally remain under 10 kts, starting
out of the south and gradually shifting more southeast. Localized
fog should not be of concern overnight with a much weaker signal
compared to this morning`s fog in west-central MN.

KMSP...Winds weaken and shift SE overnight, then increase and become gusty
at times tomorrow afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...BED