Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 162335 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
635 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Severe thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

Today...
Dry northwesterly winds and sunny skies have resulted in another
ideal Spring day across the area. RH values have dropped into the
upper 20s at some locations, but wind gusts maxing out around 20 mph
have limited the overall fire weather threat along with the
antecedent wet conditions.

Tuesday-Wednesday...
A band of showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will spread
across western and southern Minnesota overnight into tomorrow
morning as a shortwave approaches out of the Dakotas. Precipitation
will become more widespread during the afternoon and evening as the
main forcing aloft passes over the area, but rain is generally
expected to remain along an south of I-94. Rainfall amounts of a
quarter inch or less are likely, wit the heaviest amounts across
southwest Minnesota. Some lingering rain may last into Wednesday
morning across eastern MN and western WI, but an overall dry day is
expected. Temperatures Wednesday will vary widely deepening on where
the main band of rain sets up and where cloud cover is thickest.
Highs Wednesday will likely remain in the 50s across western and
southwest Minnesota where rain is expected most of the day, but could
reach 70 to the north and south of this band as well as across
western Wisconsin where cloud cover will be thinner. Wednesday will
be warmer with highs in the 70s along with increasing dew points.

Thursday-Friday...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday into
Friday as an upper level low over Hudson bay pivots a trough and
strong cold front through the Upper Midwest. A 120+ kt jetstreak
develops in response to the deepening trough and moves over the
Upper Midwest, placing the strongest forcing aloft over Minnesota
and Wisconsin. Plenty of ascent aloft will generate a widespread
region of showers and thunderstorms, with the treat for severe
thunderstorms remaining dependent on how much instability develops
at the surface Friday. Dew points are expected to rise into the 60s
through Thursday as southerly flow develops ahead of the approaching
cold front. However, widespread may already be ongoing through much
of the day on Thursday, which would limit surface heating and
preventing any appreciable instability from developing. If the cold
front is delayed a bit and precipitation holds off until later in
the day, then sufficient instability is more likely to build and
result in a threat for severe thunderstorms given the strong wind
shear from the developing system aloft. This event will likely bring
another soaking rain event to the region as well, with precipitation
amounts around 1" likely Thursday through Friday.

Friday-The Weekend...
Much cooler air invades behind the strong cold front on Friday with
temperatures falling into the 50s through the afternoon. Highs are
only expected to reach the low to mid 50s expected on Saturday and
around 60 on Sunday. Dry weather is expected, but cyclonic flow aloft
will likely result in mostly cloudy skies and thus the cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

VFR conditions this evening with just some mid-high level clouds
increasing. A band of rain will breakout overnight across
southwestern and south central MN. MVFR vis is possible in the light
rain, primarily at RWF. The showers could spread a little farther
northeast Tuesday, but appears unlikely to reach areas north of I-94
at this time.

KMSP...Gusts will end by around 01Z. No concerns through most of
Tuesday with any rain likely holding off until afternoon. Some
deterioration in cigs possible Tuesday evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA early. Wind NE to W 5-10kts.
THU...MVFR/VFR. IFR/TSRA possible. SE 10-15G25kts.
FRI...MVFR possible early. Wind NW 15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Borghoff


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