Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 201152 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
552 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Rain and high terrain snow showers are developing over northern NM
early this morning ahead of an upper low approaching from AZ. A west
wind shift is moving east into the Rio Grande Valley as of 12Z and
will continue progressing east today. This wind shift will provide
the focus for showers and potentially a couple strong storms aft 20Z
over far eastern NM. A secondary area of showers will develop over
western NM this afternoon beneath the core of the upper low. Some of
this activity may make it into the Rio Grande Valley aft 01Z with
gusty outflow along the leading edge. Precip may linger over the far
northeast plains behind the departing low overnight.



.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018...

An upper level low pressure system will shift gradually eastward
along New Mexico`s northern border today bringing a few inches of
additional snow accumulation to the northern mountains above 8500
feet. Showers and thunderstorms are expected elsewhere across
northern and eastern parts of the state. A few storms may turn severe
on the eastern plains. Windy conditions will also persist into this
afternoon along and east of the central mountain chain. After cooler
temperatures with a Pacific cold front today, readings will rebound
Sunday afternoon through Monday. A weak disturbance crossing from the
west will probably kindle a few clouds and mountain virga showers on
Sunday, before an upper level trough passing north of New Mexico
causes them to become more widespread on Monday. A gusty back door
cold front will barrel southwestward through the eastern plains
Tuesday, then into central and western areas Tuesday night. It will
increase moisture enough for a chance of showers and thunderstorms
along and east of the Continental Divide to the Texas border through
the middle of the coming week.


Most of the additional snow accumulation in the northern mountains should
occur this morning, since a dry slot wrapping into the upper low on
the CO border will progress across the state during the afternoon.
The dry slot will produce a low level dry line, which will advance
eastward across the eastern plains this afternoon triggering
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. There is a marginal
risk of severe thunderstorms on the eastern plains south of Union
county this afternoon, where large hail and damaging winds will be
the main threat.

In the wake of the upper low, another lobe of vorticity will track
into northwest and west central areas from the northwest with enough
moisture for showers, thunderstorms and mountain snow showers this
afternoon and evening. There may be an inch or so of snow
accumulation on the continental divide. A Pacific cold front will be
associated with this secondary lobe of instability, and this front
will progress through eastern NM tonight. The upper low will exit
gradually eastward along the OK/KS border on Saturday. Moisture
wrapping around the upper low will probably trigger some additional
showers, thunderstorms and mountain snow showers mainly along and
east of the northern mountains on Saturday.

Models depict an upper level ridge crossing CO from the west on
Sunday, with a weak disturbance embedded south of the system. It will
probably trigger some virga showers, especially in the mountains of
NM. The virga showers may become more widespread on Monday as an
upper level trough passes north of NM. There may even be a few light
showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon in the northern Sangre de
Cristo Mountains and along the east slopes of the south central

Monday`s upper level trough will send a wet back door cold front into
the state, as mentioned in the above Synopsis. Another wet back door
cold front is expected by the GFS and ECMWF to reinvigorate
convection along and east of the central mountain chain on Thursday.



A much needed break from the prolonged stretch of critical fire
weather conditions is on the way. But first, the current weather
system departing the area will deal a brief blow of very dry and
windy conditions to western NM today. Marginal critical conditions
are likely along and west of the Rio Grande Valley behind a cold
front racing eastward. Meanwhile, scattered rain showers and high
terrain snow will impact the northern mts. The focus for wetting
rainfall will be over the far eastern plains where storms fire up
this afternoon. A secondary area of showers will redevelop over
western NM later this afternoon and this evening as the core of the
upper low moves across northern NM. Overnight recoveries will be
very good to excellent for much of the area into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will be below normal most areas Saturday. Northwest
winds will be a tad breezy over central and western NM on the back
side of the upper wave. A back door front entering eastern NM will
keep temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal with higher humidity
and continued cloud cover. Flow aloft will become more southwesterly
Sunday while a weak impulse of mid and upper level moisture shifts
into the state. Enough instability will be present for a few gusty
virga showers or very light rain showers near the higher terrain.
Monday will be a transition day as a weak upper ridge crests over
the state. Temperatures will warm closer to normal with relatively
light winds. Overnight recoveries from the weekend into Monday will
range from good across the west to excellent across the east.

The next weather system is expected to take shape Tuesday as a moist
back door cold front enters eastern NM ahead of an approaching upper
level low. This pattern will bring even deeper moisture into NM with
the potential for at least scattered wetting showers and storms for
central and eastern NM Tuesday night through Thursday.



Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM MDT this afternoon
for the following zones... NMZ526-539-540.

Wind Advisory until noon MDT today for the following zones...

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for the
following zones... NMZ510-513-514.


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