Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 242211

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
211 PM AKDT Sat Mar 24 2018


Models...Not much change from yesterday, solutions continue to be
pretty sketchy beyond 48 hours, but not quite as bad as yesterday.
Still quite a bit of disagreement in the details, but the big
picture pattern is coming more into focus. Going to lean toward
the NAM precipitation solution again since it is not spreading the
precipitation out so much. Solutions continue to struggle with
temperatures as guidance has 10 to 20 degree spreads in some
locations, and varies by locations so no single solution can be
used. So, will need to do a lot of single point editing.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the central part of the state
with a 543 dam high 300 nm north of Nuiqsut and the axis extending
south over Telida and the southern tip of Kodiak Island. Troughing
to the east with a 500 dam low developing over the Northwest
Territories tonight with a shortwave extending southwest to
Cordova, and to the west trough extends from the New Siberian
Islands to a 513 dam low 200 nm north of Atka. By Sunday afternoon
the ridge will lie from a 533 dam center 100 nm north of Point
Barrow over Tanana to Whittier, and south. The low to the east
will move just a little, with trough continuing to push southwest
to Yakutat. The low near Atka will move to the Pribilof Islands at
509 dam. There is not much change through Monday as the low over
the Pribilofs moves toward Nunivak Island, but stalls as the ridge
bulges to the west over the Bering Strait and prevents it from
moving north. The high will drift to 200 nm north of Point Barrow.
To the east the broad area of lower heights continues and the
trough slides north and will lie over the Upper Tanana Valley over
Tok and the Copper River Basin. At 850 hpa...Around -12C over the
eastern 1/3 of the state, and -5C to -10 over the remainder of
the area and not expecting much change through Tuesday.

Surface...Trough of low pressure persists over the Gulf of Alaska
Coast and Southeast Panhandle. High pressure continues over most
of mainland Alaska with a 1037 mb high 400 nm of Demarcation Point
extending south over MacKenzie Bay to a 1030 mb high east of Old
Crow, then southwest to Anvik, and finally south to 1019 mb high
near the Shelikof Strait. Elongated trough of low pressure
extends from a 995 low near the New Siberian Island to a 993 mb
low in the Gulf of Anadyr to a 980 mb low 200 north of Atka. Not
much change the next 24 hours of so except for the low moving to
the pribilof Islands at 975 mb. That movement will tighten the
gradient up across the Alaska and Brooks Ranges as leeside
troughing develops to the north of them. With strong high pressure
to the east the gradient also tightens over the Upper Tanana
Valley, and expect the summit winds to pick up a bit as well. As
the high weakens on Sunday afternoon the gradient will relax as
well and winds will diminish. Precipitation will be limited to the
Lower Yukon Delta, Bering Strait, and southern Seward Peninsula,
but not expecting much.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Blowing snow continues to be an
issue. Visibility has gone down as winds have increase just a few
mph today, so conditions improving this evening as the winds
diminish. Winds increasing again tomorrow during the afternoon, so
expect the visibility to be reduced again. Not seeing much
stratus on the NPP-VIIRS at 24/1857Z over the Arctic Coast, so do
not expect that to be much of an issue tonight. It does look like
there are some open leads along the northwest coast from Point
Barrow to Point Hope. No significant change in temperatures
through Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Decaying occluded front
continues to fall apart with only a few spreads left over in the
northwest interior. A low moving to the southeastern Bering
Sea is spreading a mix of precipitation to the lower Yukon Delta,
and snow to the southern Seward Peninsula and St Lawrence Island.
Will have to force in a chance of snow for those areas this
evening as models keep it just offshore. No significant
accumulations expected. Not much change in temperatures through
the weekend. Inland locations can expect lows in the single digits
with the clearing skies. Southeast winds picking up a bit on St
Lawrence Island to around 25 mph, with wind on the Lower Yukon
Delta Coast picking up to around 20 mph. Elsewhere winds will be
northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph with generally light winds
inland. As the low pushes closer to the coast Sunday winds in the
lower Yukon Delta west of Anvik will pick up to 15 to 25 mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...High pressure persists over the
area with partly cloudy conditions. Expect big diurnal
temperature swings with lows -10 to +5 and highs in the 30s to
lower 40s. Winds generally light at night, then northeast at 5 to
15 mph during the day. The exceptions will be tonight the Tanana
Valley Jet will kick in around Delta Junction and winds will
increase to 20 to 30 mph and gusty into Sunday evening, and winds
around Nenana and over the flats south of Fairbanks will also be
breezy Sunday with 10 to 20 mph winds. Gap winds in the Alaska
Range kick in with the leeside trough developing, and will be
gusting to around 45 mph Sunday.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...A little more faith in the
extended periods, but mainly since they are building a ridge, and
that seems to be something they have handled well that last few
weeks. Stacked low in the southeastern Bering Sea will finally
gets kicked out as ridging over the AlCan moves east, and ridging
builds over the western Bering Sea. The ridging moves to the
eastern Bering Sea by Thursday evening and builds northeast across
the state with a closed 568 dam center over the Lower Yukon
Delta. As the trough is forced east by the ridge expect some
spotty precipitation across the area, but at this time nothing



Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-



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