Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 241625

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
925 AM MST Sat Mar 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry weather through the weekend, with breezy
daytime southwest winds. Another round of unsettled weather is
expected starting Monday, with well below normal temperatures and
a chance of light showers through Wednesday.


.UPDATE...Moderate southwesterly flow will continue over Arizona
today. Expect increasing clouds this afternoon, along with breezy
winds developing. Clouds and wind speeds will decrease this
evening. Made minor tweaks to the sky forecast for today with no
other updates needed.



Dry and breezy conditions are expected for the weekend as a large
scale trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Most of the moisture
and instability will remain well north of the area through the
weekend, yielding only cloud cover and breezy afternoon winds for
this weekend. Wind speeds are currently forecast to remain below
advisory criteria, so will hold off on issuing any products at
this time.

By Monday a shortwave trough will move across the area and deepen
as it cross the Rocky Mountains. This will create some potential
for cooler temperatures and rain/snow showers on Monday and
Tuesday as the system moves across northern Arizona.

Most of the shower activity is expected to end Tuesday as a ridge
of high pressure begins to build into the area on Wednesday. The
ridge looks to remain in place through the rest of the week, but
some models are suggesting the ridge will flatten out to a more
zonal flow pattern by next weekend as a large scale trough looks
to once again move into the Pacific Northwest.

While temperatures are expected to start off next week about 10
degrees below normal thanks to the cold front associated with the
shortwave trough, by the end of the week temperature values
should be back at or above normal values due to the influence of
this large ridge.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions under high
clouds for the next 24 hours. Sfc winds SW15-25kts with gusts to
30kts from 18Z-02Z, decreasing to 10-20kts with higher gusts lee of
higher terrain overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions and variable high cloud
cover today and Sunday. Gusty southwest winds will develop each
afternoon. Winds will likely not fully decouple overnight.

.Monday through Wednesday...A slow moving low pressure system will
bring a cool down and a chance of rain and snow showers Monday and
Tuesday. Rain and snow showers will end by Wednesday morning, any
accumulations will be light.






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