Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 241203 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
703 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A cold front that extended southeast of a KMKC-KOKC-KFDR-KHOB
line as of 11z will move southeast to near a KMLC-KDFW-KMKN line
by 18z. Winds will be southwesterly at 10 to 15 knots ahead of
the front and will shift to the northwest and then north at
around 10 knots with frontal passage. Low clouds that were along
and east of a KLZZ-KDAL-KF00 line will move move off to the
northeast later this morning with the southwesterly flow. The
front will become stationary later during the afternoon and south
winds will persist at KACT. The front will start to lift back to
the north after 06z with winds coming around to the southeast
between 08 and 10z in the Metroplex. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop north of the I-20 corridor after 06z but
the chances at the TAF sites is too low to include in the TAFs at
this time.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 329 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/
/Through tonight/

A cold front extended from Wichita, Kansas southwest through
Clinton, Oklahoma into southeastern New Mexico as of 3 AM. This
front will move southeast into the northwestern parts of North
Texas this morning and become quasi-stationary this evening
southeast of a Paris to DFW to Cisco line. It will be much warmer
today with highs around 80 degrees east to the upper 80s west.
Winds will be southwesterly at 10 to 20 mph ahead of the front and
will shift to the northwest and then north at around 10 mph with
the frontal passage. The front will then lift back to the north
overnight Saturday night. With a strong cap still in place and
only modest lift above the frontal boundary, only some isolated
elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected north of the I-20
corridor before daybreak Sunday. Have placed some 20 percent PoPs
there. Lows will be in the upper 50s near the Red River and in the
60s elsewhere.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 329 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/
/Sunday through next weekend/

The front will continue to lift northward as a warm front as an
upper trough drops southeast across the Great Basin. Isolated
convection will linger along the Red River Sunday morning before
lifting north of the area in the afternoon. A fast moving
shortwave in the southwest flow aloft will allow a dryline to
surge east to western portions of the forecast area Sunday
afternoon. Though a strong capping inversion will be in place,
unseasonably warm conditions in the vicinity of the boundary will
likely allow a few parcels to overcome it, resulting in isolated
convection late Sunday afternoon and evening. The presence of good
instability and good deep layer shear values supports the
likelihood that any storm which develops will have the potential
to become severe, posing a large hail and damaging wind threat.
Activity should wane late Sunday evening as instability levels

The upper trough will work its way southeast into the Four Corners
area on Monday, before cutting off from the main flow Monday
night. The cold front will begin to approach again from the
northwest Monday afternoon and Monday night, aided by the
continued eastward advancement of the main piece of energy (north
of the cut-off low) across the Central Plains.

Meanwhile, stronger ascent will begin to arrive as the upper low
approaches from the west. Scattered convection along the slow-
moving front will become more likely with time across the
northwest counties. POPs in the 30 to 50 range have been added to
the northwestern third of the region for Monday afternoon,
increasing to likely POPs Monday night. Instability and shear will
be sufficient for a few severe storms late Monday afternoon and
Monday evening with large hail and damaging wind remaining a

The primary threat will transition to flooding as we move into
Monday night and Tuesday, due to the slow movement of both the
upper level system and the cold front. Persistent lift associated
with the upper low should lead to a region of locally heavy rain,
as training thunderstorms become possible in the vicinity of the
surface boundary. The latest thinking is that the axis of locally
heavy rainfall will shift from the northwest counties Monday
night, to either side of a line extending from Paris to Dallas to
Lampasas on Tuesday and Tuesday night, to areas south of I-30 and
east of I-35/35E Wednesday.

There is a low threat for severe weather during this time, but
the threat should be mitigated by the presence of substantial Gulf
moisture and modest mid level lapse rates. Rainfall totals in the
range of 2 to 4 inches are a good possibility for a broad portion
of the area. As in any event, some localized spots will receive
less than this, while others receive more. The best chances of
higher storm totals will occur across areas northeast of the DFW
Metroplex where the higher PWAts are being advertised.

Showers and storms will linger across the southeast Wednesday
night before moving east of the area on Thursday as the upper
level system continues east and the cold front clears the forecast
area. Some wrap-around moisture may generate a few showers on
Thursday, but at this time POPs will be left below 20 percent due
to the low probability of receiving measurable precipitation. Dry
and seasonable weather is then expected Friday through next
weekend as the system heads for the East Coast and dry northwest
flow develops overhead.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  65  81  66  82 /   5  20  20  30  30
Waco                85  65  83  66  84 /   5  10  20  20  10
Paris               81  59  74  63  79 /  10  20  40  30  40
Denton              85  62  81  65  80 /   5  20  20  30  40
McKinney            84  62  79  65  80 /   5  20  20  30  30
Dallas              86  65  81  67  82 /   5  20  20  30  30
Terrell             84  63  80  64  83 /   5  10  20  30  20
Corsicana           83  65  79  65  82 /  10  10  10  20  20
Temple              85  66  83  66  84 /   5  10  20  20  10
Mineral Wells       87  62  86  64  82 /   0  10  30  30  40




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