Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 251330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
930 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Low pressure over central North Carolina will move northeast today
and push a cold front through the area later tonight. Several weak
disturbances will affect the area from late Thursday into the


.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 930 AM Wed...Already seeing some diurnal strato cu
development across the wrn half as lapse rates steepen. Latest
near term guide indicating sct showers with some embedded iso
thunder developing after noon, so forecast on track with inc pop
trend through early afternoon.

Previous discussion... As of 645 AM...Occluded low pressure
remains over central NC, slowly creeping northeast. All shower
activity has moved off the coast, for now, and expect dry
conditions through mid morning. As the upper level trough and
surface low move through later this morning and afternoon,
scattered showers and eventually thunderstorms will develop over
the region. The highest coverage of showers and storms is
expected to be generally north of US 264. No severe weather is
expected, although there could be some small hail.

Current temperatures are mild, mostly in upper 50s to low 60s.
Partly cloudy skies later today will allow temperatures to rise
into the mid to upper 70s inland, with low 70s expected near
the coast.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 320 AM Wed...Any shower or thunderstorm activity should
begin to weaken by this evening. A dry night is expected
thereafter, with mostly clear skies. The cold front behind the
slow moving low pressure system will finally push through early
tonight, with winds shifting to the NW. Low temps will reach the
mid to upper 50s across Eastern NC by morning.


As of 330 AM Wednesday...Models have come into better agreement
with handling of disturbances for Thu night and Friday and again
Saturday, thus increased forecast confidence with this issuance.
Area will be in-between systems Thursday, then dampening short
wave and associated relatively weak surface reflection will
affect area Thu night into Friday, with main threat of precip
late Thu night. Another short wave trough will move through Fri
night into Saturday with main energy remaining north and south
of area. Main eastern U.S. upper trough will finally move
through north of area late Sunday, followed by ridging surface
and aloft Sun night into Tuesday.

Thursday into Saturday...Thursday looks mainly dry with just
slight chance of showers inland with heating in afternoon.
Dampening short wave will move across SW to NE inland of area
Thu night into early Friday with models in better agreement on
weak surface low moving across inland as well, pulling a weak
front through Fri night. Models do hint at possible NW and SE
split of precip with this system late Thu night, thus kept POPs
at 40% for now. Will have chance POPs continuing eastern
sections Fri morning with just slight chance inland, then
flipping to 30% inland/20% coast during afternoon with weak
frontal boundary approaching. With main energy splitting north
and south of area with next shortwave Fri night and Saturday,
models have trended drier that period but still enough support
for slight chance POPs. Temps near normal during period with
lows mainly in 50s and highs 65-70 coast and 70-75 inland.

Saturday night through precip expected through
period. Upper trough passage and high pressure building in from
NW will result in temps cooler than normal Sat night into Mon
night, then warming Tuesday with ridging aloft. Lows mainly
45-55 Sat night through Mon night with highs Sunday and Monday
from mid 60s to lower 70s. Highs Tuesday around 70 coast and mid
to upper 70s inland.


Short Term /through Thursday Morning/...
As of 700 AM Wed...A mix of IFR and MVFR conditions are present
across the airspace this morning. IFR conditions have been on
and off across the coastal plain, including KPGV and KISO, while
further east, conditions are currently MVFR or VFR. Expect
possibly an hour or two of additional IFR ceilings across the
coastal plain, and then a lift towards MVFR after mid morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
later this morning, and last through the evening. MVFR and some
brief IFR conditions will be possible with these showers and
storms. VFR conditions should return for all by late this
afternoon or evening, and last through the night.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...VFR expected most of period. Brief
sub-VFR possible with scattered showers Thu night into Friday
and isolated activity Friday night into Saturday.


Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 320 PM Wed...Rough seas and strong, but diminishing winds
will continue this morning and through most of today. Small
craft advisories are ongoing for all the coastal waters, and
will continue through Thursday morning/afternoon.

Winds are currently SSW 15-20 kts across the coastal waters,
with seas 7-12 ft. Winds and seas will continue to subside
today, although a period of winds SW 20-25 kts is expected late
this afternoon into the evening. Later tonight, winds will shift
to the NW as a cold front moves through the waters, and winds
will become NW 5-15 kts by tomorrow morning. Seas will subside
to 6-10 ft this afternoon, and then to 4-7 ft by early tomorrow

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Weak high pressure will result in light
veering winds for Thursday, the low pressure moving across
inland of area will result in SW winds 15-20 KT late Thu night
into Friday. A weak front will result in another brief wind
shift late Fri night into Saturday, then a stronger front will
move through Saturday night followed by a northerly surge of
15-20 KT winds Sunday.

Lingering elevated seas will finally subside below 6 ft during
the day Thursday, but will build again to near 6 ft outer
southern and central waters late Thu night into Friday with
increasing SW winds. Seas then gradually subsiding to around 3
ft by late Saturday, but building to 4-5 ft again Sunday with
northerly wind surge.


As of 330 AM Wed...Lingering long period swell energy will
continue to produce a high rip current risk for all beaches
today along with high surf advisory criteria for the Outer


NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ103-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ150.


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