Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 250237

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
937 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Frontal boundary currently along a line from Paris Texas to Hot
Springs Arkansas characterized by a fairly sharp temperature and
dewpoint gradient. Cloud cover a little less widespread than
advertised. Hence, for this update, went ahead and readjusted
clouds based on current trends. Front forecast to remain nearly
stationary with possibly some drifting to the south overnight.
Otherwise, forecast is on track. /05/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

For the 25/00z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail for the first few
hours of the period at most terminals. The exceptions will be over
North Central Louisiana, including KMLU, where some patchy MVFR
ceilings remain in place. Ceilings should gradually lower through
the nighttime hours and MVFR/IFR flight conditions are expected
areawide after 25/06z. Some patchy fog and isolated instances of
LIFR ceilings cannot be ruled out, especially at KTYR, KGGG, and
KLFK. The low clouds should slowly lift through the remainder of
the period, but conditions will likely remain in the MVFR or low-
end of VFR. Model guidance suggests a few scattered showers will
be possible across Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and
Southern Arkansas during the period, mainly after 25/12z. KTXK and
KELD would be the TAF sites most likely to be affected. However,
rain chances appear too low at this time to mention in the TAFs.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

This afternoon a cold front was moving into Western Arkansas
and trailed from an elongated surface low pressure system over
Northwest Arkansas, Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois. The
boundary stretched Southwest to near De Queen Arkansas, Idabel
Oklahoma,and Paris and Terrell Texas. A pressure gradient between
the surface low and surface high pressure over the Northeast Gulf
of Mexico provide gusty winds today but the gradient will be
relaxing overnight and winds will decrease. Aloft in the amplified
ridge of high pressure stretching from Mexico across the Plains
and into the upper Mid-West and Canada a short wave trough of low
pressure was moving across the central sections of the country and
will be shifting the surface low East that will pivot the
Northern sections of the front into the Four State Region as a
back door front. This boundary will provide rain and showers to
the area overnight and into Sunday. Late Sunday night and into
Monday the nearly stationary boundary will be moving back to the
Northeast as a warm front. For the start to the work week a
longwave trough of low pressure will dig to the South as two
systems phase together with an upper low closing off near the Four
Corners Region by early Tuesday. In the Southwest flow pattern
aloft from West Texas into the Central sections of the country and
upper mid west, showers and thunderstorms will form the width of
the nation along a surface cold front trailing from the upper mid-
west and Western Great lakes into another surface low over New
Mexico and Mexico. This pattern will set the stage for our mid to
late week period. Until the closed low becomes an open wave and
its trough axis sends a cold front over the forecast area and off
to our East, expect to see locally heavy rainfall with the
potential for flash flooding, flooding, and river flooding. The
rivers may not respond to the water runoff until the weekend and
into the first of April. There will also be a potential for strong
to severe storms with large hail, damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes for Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall comes to an end by
late Thursday with surface high pressure building into forecast
area prevailing dry conditions through the middle of the weekend.


SHV  62  77  62  83 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  62  76  61  84 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  52  68  58  77 /  10  40  30  40
TXK  56  71  60  80 /  20  30  30  30
ELD  56  70  58  81 /  20  30  20  20
TYR  64  79  64  83 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  64  78  63  84 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  64  82  64  85 /  20  20  20  20




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