Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 121800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
100 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Upper level shortwave trough progged to drop southward through WI
tonight. Relatively weak qg convergence in the mid/upper levels, but
confined to eastern WI. Time/height x-sections and bufkit soundings
point to some low saturation, along with some lift within this
layer. Could be enough for some light snow/flurry chances tonight -
mainly in/east of the I-94 corridor. High pressure then slated to
build in for Tue/Wed. Coupled with northwest flow at the sfc, should
be a couple quiet and cool days.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

GFS/EC trends favoring developing broad upper level ridging by the
middle/later half of the new work week, with a milder temperature
regime through the weekend. The GFS does suggest an upper level
shortwave trough could spin across the region Fri/Sat, bringing a
threat for some pcpn. The EC holds onto a sfc high, keeping much of
the upper level energy south and/or northwest of the local area.
Will let consensus detail any pcpn threat for the time being.
Overall, looks fairly quiet for the upcoming weekend, with
temperatures at or above the seasonable normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Northwesterly winds gusting to just over 20 kts will be seen
through this afternoon before subsiding a bit near sunset.
Anticipating the development of scattered to broken cumulus with
bases around 4000 ft agl east of the Mississippi River this
afternoon. Guidance then shows a separate batch of clouds moving
in west of the Mississippi River late this evening. Currently
thinking bases will be around 2500 ft agl at RST, but with the
best moisture remaining to the west, thinking clouds will be
scattered, though can`t completely rule out MVFR conditions. For
LSE, anticipating cloud bases to drop a bit overnight, but cloud
cover should also be on the decrease. That said, given subsident
air throughout the area and poor model performance with cloud
heights and presence last night and this morning, confidence is
not high with these aspects of the forecast.




LONG TERM....Rieck
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