Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 192242
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
642 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018


.AVIATION...

High pressure will build into the area from the west during the
forecast period and provide vfr conditions with relatively light
winds. Northwest flow will ease to 10-12 knots this evening and
approach those levels again on Friday during best period of mixing.
The only expected clouds will be thin cirrus, mainly on Friday.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

DISCUSSION...

The upper low responsible for the clouds earlier this morning has
quickly exited to the east allowing clearing to occur quicker than
anticipated. Due to this earlier clearing trend, temperatures have
risen several degrees above model guidance this afternoon with most
locations in the upper 40s to low 50s across SE Michigan. Incoming
high pressure has led to a tightened pressure gradient supporting
gusty northwest winds across the region. As the high settles into
the region tonight, expect winds to dissipate quickly under clear
skies. This will allow temperatures to fall quickly through the
evening into the upper 20s to possibly mid 20s in colder, outlying
areas by late tonight (possibly near the record low of 24 at Flint).

An upper level ridge will then slowly slide eastward into the region
on Friday into Saturday while surface high pressure becomes
established over the Great Lakes. This will maintain dry, calm
conditions to end the week. With mainly clear skies on Friday high
temperatures could again overachieve Friday afternoon with
widespread mid 50s across SE Michigan. An upper low moving well to
the south of the region this weekend will bring some high clouds
across mainly the southern half of the CWA on Saturday while high
temperatures rise into the upper 50s.

The stretch of dry weather and accompanying plentiful sunshine will
continue through the end of the weekend and into early next week as
high pressure remains in control. Aloft, upper-level ridging will
gradually break down with time into early next week as a broad,
closed upper low across the lower Mississippi River Valley interacts
with northern stream energy diving southeastward from the northern
Plains. Partial phasing of these two features will lead to an
increasing chance for showers for the midweek period. Remnant deep
longwave troughing across the eastern CONUS will give way to
building heights aloft to end the work week and a return to drier
weather.

Temperatures will continue to moderate through the 50s to near
normal for late April (around 60), with high temperatures reaching
into the low/mid 60s Monday and Tuesday. As showers overspread the
region during the midweek period, temperatures will cool, but still
remain in the 50s for daytime highs.

MARINE...

Northwest winds gusting to 25 knots or slightly greater over much of
Lake Huron this afternoon will slowly decrease tonight as high
pressure builds into the Central Great Lakes tomorrow, leading to
light and variable winds over the Weekend. Small craft advisories
continue for the southern Lake Huron waves through Friday morning,
as waves do not fall below 4 feet until Friday afternoon.

Light southerly winds early next week as high pressure slides off
the East Coast.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...JD/IRL
MARINE.......SF


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