Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 141604

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1204 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018


Gusty northwest wind will steadily back toard southwesterly through
the forecast period as surface high pressure slips south of the area
and a weak surface trough approaches from the northwest. Increasing
mixing and anticyclonic flow this aftn will erode most or all of the
lingering borderline MVFR stratocu. Low VFR/high MVFR stratus
evident on visible just north of Lake Superior early this aftn will
fill in behind the cold front early Thursday morning.


* High for cigs aob 5kft


Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018


A few scattered snow showers that have remained throughout the night
are slowly coming to an end early this morning. After a couple days
of snow shower activity, southeast Michigan is in for a break today
as dry air arrives to the region. A weak shortwave ridge embedded
within the broader troughing pattern looks to move over Michigan
today while the center of the closed low pressure pushes east of the
region through the northeastern US. A large surface high pressure
will center itself over the Gulf states. This will help surface
winds shift from northwest to a more westerly direction during the
afternoon and into the evening. This shift will not result in much
warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures rebounding a few degrees by
late afternoon. High temperatures will be mostly driven by solar
insolation today and forecast temperatures should reside in the 30s
today with some scattered clouds.

Predominately northwest flow aloft remains overnight and into
tomorrow as the broad trough pattern holds its grip over the Great
Lakes. A stream of PV within this flow will move overhead tonight as
a weak surface trough slides through southeast Michigan late
tonight. This will result in a brief backing of the winds to the
southwest in the evening for the southern portions of the area before
winds veer back to the northwest. The passing of the surface trough
and a little moisture boost in the lower levels will bring light snow
showers and flurries late tonight into tomorrow morning. Anticipate
minor accumulations less than an inch for locations that experience
these snow showers as instability does not look great with this
system. Will need to keep an eye on the north and eastern portions of
the Thumb for any lake enhanced snow showers that may develop off of
Lake Huron. Cloudy conditions with this passing surface trough will
keep overnight lows in the 20s.

A surface high pressure will begin to build in from the northwest as
the mid/upper level trough maintains cold northwest flow tomorrow
night. Dry air pushing in will also keep things quiet for most of
the area. The only exception again being the potential for lake
enhanced showers within the northerly flow bringing potential snow
accumulations to portions of the northern Thumb shoreline tomorrow
night into Friday morning. Accumulations at this time look to be less
than an inch. Forecast overnight low temperatures tomorrow night
will dip into upper teens for much of the area with only locations
around Detroit Metro reaching the low 20s.

Weather will remain somewhat quiet and temperatures below average on
Friday in the 30s as the center of the surface high pressure begins
to drift into the western Great Lakes. A slight warm up during the
weekend looks to be on the way, though not as warm as previously
advertised. A stream of energy from a weakening surface low passing
through the central plains towards lower Michigan will allow some
weak warm air advection to help boost temperatures slightly for
Saturday and Sunday. Sunday will be the warmer day this weekend with
most locations reaching above 40 degrees aside from portions of the
Thumb that will see upper 30s.


A weak ridge of high pressure will traverse Lake Huron today. This
will result in both a backing of the winds toward the west and a
decrease in wind speeds as the gradient relaxes. A weak cold front
will push from northwest to southeast across Lake Huron into Lake
Erie tonight. The passage of this front will be marked by a veering
of the winds to the northwest. Post frontal cold air advection will
boost over-lake mixing depths, supporting increasing wind speeds
late tonight through Thursday. There has been increasing
probabilities that wind gusts will reach 30 knots across the open
waters of Lake Huron Thurs afternoon and evening. High pressure will
slowly build across the region Friday and Saturday, leading to a
slow but steady drop in winds and waves.


Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.



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