Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 141942

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
342 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Surface high pressure and diurnal mixing has led to a fairly sunny
afternoon with a scattering of cu and some thin high clouds.
Temperatures so far today have struggled to rise much, even with a
stronger March sun. Mostly clear skies will persist through the first
half of the night as the high pressure ridge slides through. A weak
cold front/surface trough will drop south through the area shortly
after midnight with little fanfare as atmosphere will be moisture
starved. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front will bring slight waa
which will keep lows slightly higher in the mid 20s then this
mornings lows in the teens to low 20s. Winds will veer back to the
northwest behind the front and remain brisk for the day Thursday
along with weak cold air advection. A deeper pool of moisture
currently north of Lake Superior associated with strung out pva on
the backside of the large trough over the northeast will advect into
the area during the day. This will lead to partly to mostly cloudy
skies. With weak caa and lesser sunshine then today, highs Thursday
will struggle again for this time of year reaching the low 30s north
to upper 30s south. Some flurries will be possible along the eastern
portion of the forecast area with light snow showers possible closer
to the Lake Huron shoreline. Elsewhere should remain dry.

High pressure building in Thursday night will bring clearing that
will continue through Friday night.  Thicknesses will only slowly
increase through this period so temperatures will remain below avg
with this very cold airmass in place. Thursday night/Friday night
lows will drop into the teens most places. If winds were to
decouple, lows would drop near the single digits. Even with plenty
of sunshine Friday`s highs will still remain in the 30s.

An approaching high pressure system that pushes east from the
northern Plains into the Ohio Valley will help keep conditions dry
throughout the weekend as temperatures reside in the 40s for a
daytime high. Plenty of sunshine is expected over the weekend,
before mid and high level clouds build in from the south as low
pressure pushes east from Kansas/Oklahoma into southern
Indiana/Ohio. This system will also bring the chance for snow and/or
a rain/snow mix across SE MI, however, major discrepancies can be
seen across long-range models, thus confidence remains low at this
point regarding precipitation chances. The ECMWF model run develops
a mid-level closed low across the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday
which helps steer the surface low north into southern Michigan
during this time frame. The CMC model run keeps a more northerly
track of the low relative to the GFS run, pushing the low east
across Indiana and Ohio. This solution brings precipitation chances
across the Metro region, while the GFS run fails to resolve any
meaningful QPF for the area.

General temperature trends keep daytime highs parked in the mid to
upper-30s up to the lower 40s for the first half of next week.For
reference, climatological normal highs reside in the mid-40s for mid-



Fresh to strong northwest flow will develop late tonight into
Thursday and persist through Friday. Wind gusts will be limited by
marginal stability but may gust to marginal gales for a brief time
Thursday afternoon. Small craft advisories for elevated waves have
been issued for the nearshore waters of Lake Huron as the prolonged
NW fetch builds significant wave heights in excess of 6 feet and
maximum wave heights around 10 feet.


Issued at 1204 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018


Gusty northwest wind will steadily back toard southwesterly through
the forecast period as surface high pressure slips south of the area
and a weak surface trough approaches from the northwest. Increasing
mixing and anticyclonic flow this aftn will erode most or all of the
lingering borderline MVFR stratocu. Low VFR/high MVFR stratus
evident on visible just north of Lake Superior early this aftn will
fill in behind the cold front early Thursday morning.


* High for cigs aob 5kft


Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 4 PM EDT Friday for

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 4 PM EDT Friday for

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.



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