Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 200844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
444 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the MO/KS
border with a trough over the northern Rockies this morning. There
is also a trough over New England. The closed low along the MO/ KS
border heads east and opens up while the trough in the northern
Rockies moves into the northern plains 00z Wed. It is borderline for
lake effect snow showers, but there could be enough moisture to at
least put in slight chance pops in the eastern lake effect snow
belts and will have that tonight into Tue morning. Otherwise, pretty
quiet weather through the forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 439 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

Quiet weather is expected to persist through much of the week. A
weak sheared-out shortwave trough will bring an increase in mid-
level clouds tonight into Wed but low-level dry air in a ne flow
circulating around a Hudson Bay high will ensure dry conditions. The
mid level clouds combined with the cool ne flow off Lake Superior
will keep temps blo normal Wed with highs in the upper 20s north to
lower to mid 30s south. Clearing skies from the west behind
departing shortwave along with light winds should make for chilly
conditions Wed night. Forecasted on the lower end of model
guidance as min temps could approach zero at a few of the typical
cold spots over the western interior.

Building 5h heights ahead of an advancing upper ridge from the
west will yield more sunshine Thu and Fri as temps push back
toward normal with highs in the lower to mid 30s north to lower
40s south.

Heading into the weekend, models now in good agreement showing
amplified ridge from Hudson Bay into the Western Great Lakes
suppressing next system well south moving through the Central Plains
and Ohio Valley on Saturday. Expect dry conditions through the
weekend although there will be an increase in clouds from the
Central Plains system Fri night into Saturday. E-SE flow circulating
around the Hudson Bay high and presence of some clouds will keep
temps slightly blo normal over the weekend with highs generally in
the 30s.

GFS shows a shortwave lifting ne through the Upper MS Valley into
Ontario bringing the next chance of light precipitation Sun night
into Mon. GFS solution is certainly most aggressive with this
shortwave breaking down the strong ridge in place while the ECMWF
and CMC hold on to ridging and drier air through Monday. Given
strength of ridge, persistence and drier solution seems to be the
way go.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the TAF period.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 144 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2018

High pressure building in from Ontario will produce ne winds around
25 knots over western Lake Superior into tonight. Otherwise no
significant strong winds are expected through the forecast period,
with winds generally staying at or below 20 knots.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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