Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 181957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
357 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

Northwest flow aloft prevails between upper ridge over northern
plains and upper low over Quebec. Weak cold front from the north is
making its way across Upper Michigan this afternoon. Temps have
steadied out in the low 30s near Lk Superior but pushed into the
upper 40s again over scntrl this aftn where skies stayed mostly
sunny all day. Mid clouds are quickly increasing from the west this
aftn now though and due to these clouds and possible lower stratocu
off Lk Superior, expect most areas to be mostly cloudy by the
evening. The clouds will result in most areas seeing lows in the
teens tonight though as skies clear out farther east overnight,
could see lows fall into the single digits. Mid clouds dissippate to
from north to south on Monday but could be lingering low clouds due
to cooler air aloft and flow continuing off Lk Superior out of high
pressure over northern Ontario and Hudson Bay.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

Persistent quiet weather continues through much of this week. A weak
upper level trough could bring some light snow or flurries to
western Upper Michigan Tuesday and Tuesday night. The precipitation
should not make it any farther east though as it runs into dry air
with the high pressure over northern Ontario and Hudson Bay. Will be
decent amount of mid level clouds across rest of Upper Michigan
though and the clouds combined with temps staying in the upper 20s
north to lower 30s south will lead to a couple chilly days Tuesday
and again on Wednesday.

Upper ridge begins to shift into the upper Great Lakes Thursday and
Friday and should also see more sunshine. Expect temps to push back
toward normal by that time as well.

Next weekend mainly on Saturday, the GFS/GEFS and the ECMWF indicate
pcpn, mainly in the form of snow, associated with a stronger
shortwave moving into the upper MS valley. It is likely that the
northern portion of the pcpn shield will likely be impeded by
continued dry east to northeast low level flow from the Hudson Bay
high. Will continue to feature likely pops along WI border and
scntrl. If the dry air does not set up as much, then at least the
southern part of Upper Michigan could see at least some light
accumulating snow.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

A cold front moving in from the NE today, combined with a mid level
short wave moving in from the W should lead to reduced CIGs, with
MVFR conditions developing at KIWD and KSAW this evening and
overnight, but no precipitation is expected. The exact height of
those CIGs is uncertain. Should remain in the 2000-3000 ft range,
but mentioned SCT to 1500 ft to hint towards the potential that
cielings could be a little bit lower for a brief period, mainly
between 00Z and 06Z.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 356 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

High pressure building in from Ontario will produce ne winds around
25 knots over western Lake Superior into tonight. Otherwise no
significant winds are expected through the forecast period, with
winds generally staying at or below 20 knots.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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