925
FXUS64 KMRX 220732
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
332 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Key Messages:

1. Low afternoon relative humidity and gusty winds will promote
elevated fire danger across the area this afternoon.

2. Warming trend continues today with high temperatures near to
slightly above normal expected.

Discussion:

A surface low pressure system is currently located just north and
east of Michigan with an associated cold front spanning southwest
along the northern Kentucky border. This surface front is moisture
starved with RAP soundings depicting PWAT values near 0.30". This
front will continue to propagate eastward and make passage through
the forecast area shortly after sunrise. No rain is expected due to
the lack of moisture.

Westerly winds will gradually become breezy post FROPA. Gusts
between 20-30mph are expected in portions of northeast Tennessee and
southwest Virginia this afternoon. Gusts in the southern valley are
more likely to be in the realm of 15-20mph. Very strong mixing in
excess of 5kft will promote another of afternoon with widespread RHs
at or below 30%. The previous Fire Danger Statement remains in good
shape and will be reimplemented before its current expiration at 9z.
Plenty of sunshine with low RH this afternoon will allow
temperatures to trend near to slightly above normal.  Strong
radiational cooling will allow higher elevations of the Tennessee
Mountains and northern valley into southwest Virginia to approach
lows near freezing tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Key Messages:

1. Widespread showers and even some thunderstorms expected with cold
front passage late Sunday into Monday. Severe chances are low.

2. Increasing wind gusts across the area Sunday afternoon will keep
the fire danger threat elevated.

3. Cooler Monday then warming trend with chance of showers Tuesday
into Wednesday morning with some uncertainty.

4. A greater warming trend begins Thursday, with dry weather
prevailing the end of the work week.

Discussion:

A developing trough expected to deepen over the northern Plains late
Saturday, will become a closed low with an associated sub-1000mb low
center over the Great Lakes region Sunday. A weak surface low
originating near the Texas panhandle is expected to become enveloped
into the deepening system before it reaches the Great Lakes. A cold
front will extend from this system, passing over our area late
Sunday into early Monday. This will be another high shear and low
CAPE case, where timing overnight and very dry antecedent conditions
will inhibit widespread severe weather. A MRGL risk including the
potential for damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes does touch our
western border with OHX. The best chance for storms becoming strong,
and maybe even severe will most likely be limited to the Plateau.
It`s important to note that Td`s struggle to exceed 50 degrees with
the approaching system; return flow doesn`t really take place until
mid day Sunday so not a lot of time to work with.

Mountain wave set-up potential doesn`t look all that great with the
00z NAM only showing low level flow of 35-40kts at the peak early
Monday. So, wind gusts over the terrain will probably be low-end
advisory or just below advisory at most. Increasing southerly to
southwesterly winds are expected to funnel up the valley with peak
heating Sunday. This paired with low RH`s before the system`s
arrival, may keep the fire danger threat going beyond Saturday.

Following the cold front Monday, there won`t be much in the way of
NWly flow behind the system or cold temperatures either, so the
higher terrain may escape post-frontal snow for once. Temperatures a
touch cooler Monday and Tuesday following Sunday`s highs of 70s in
the valley. Though, morning temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will
be more on the mild side than usual following a frontal system.

A weak wave diving in from the NW Tuesday may bring a chance of
precipitation to the area. There are disagreements amongst the 00z
deterministic runs, so there is some uncertainty as far as who may
see rain, how much, and when later Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs
Wednesday will trend cooler as a result, and lows Thursday morning
may be the "coldest" of the long term with upper to lower 30s for
the area.

Surface high pressure comes rushing in later in the day Wednesday.
High and dry will dominate for Thursday and Friday, with
temperatures returning to the mid to upper 70s Friday afternoon. A
shortwave within the longwave pattern towards the lower tier of the
country, may bring the next best chance of precipitation to the area
next weekend. Ample return flow from the Gulf is noted in the models
as well as highs Saturday remaining in the upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail. It is possible TRI observes a brief
period of LLWS as westerly H85 jet near 30-40kts swings over our
northern third before surface winds increase late morning. Have
left this out of TAFs at the moment but will monitor VAD Wind
Profile and amend if needed. Otherwise, main TAF concern is
breezy westerly winds between 15-25kts tomorrow during the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  40  75  54 /   0   0  10  90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  37  73  52 /   0   0  10  90
Oak Ridge, TN                       66  36  72  51 /   0   0  20  90
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  33  69  50 /   0   0  10  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS
LONG TERM....KS
AVIATION...KRS