Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
303 FXUS64 KMRX 131842 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 142 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 135 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 - Widespread rain expected Saturday night through Sunday. High confidence in widespread +0.50" totals, with greater than 50% chance for an inch or more of rainfall primarily over the northern plateau area. - Dry and significantly warmer next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 An upper low will eject eastward from central Texas Saturday afternoon and evening, moving to central Georgia by Sunday evening. Ahead of this system, widespread rainfall is expected to spread across the forecast area and the southern Appalachian region in general, late Saturday night into Sunday morning. There remains some uncertainty in the expected rainfall amounts but there is pretty high confidence in seeing at least 0.50" across much of the CWA, with even a 50-60 percent chance of seeing 1" of rain or more primarily north of I-40 and west of I-75. This is much needed given the ongoing drought conditions across the region, and the introduction of some D3 drought categories in our southern TN counties this week. Additionally, a belt of stronger H85 winds will extend north into the southern Appalachians Saturday night through roughly midday Sunday. Cross sections show some downward motions in the lee of the TN mountains, but there`s no strong cross-mountain pressure gradients in place. As such, it doesn`t seem like any wind headlines are warranted right now. It will be breezy in the foothills, and even the southern plateau areas, but right now it doesn`t appear that we`ll get that downward acceleration like we would in a true mountain wave wind event and that the speeds will be low enough to preclude putting up any headlines at the moment. Otherwise, this system moves off the southeast coastline by sunrise Monday morning, giving way to persistent ridging that builds over the Tennessee valley and deep south through at least the first half of next week. Indications are we`ll see dry conditions through much of next week to be honest. And temperatures will respond in kind, climbing to 8-10 degrees above normal by Tue/Wed. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. High and mid clouds will be in the increase tomorrow, but it will be late in the period. Winds will be light, generally less than 5-7kt, but will gradually pick up a southerly direction in the last few hours of the period especially at KCHA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 61 47 58 / 0 10 80 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 59 44 53 / 0 10 80 100 Oak Ridge, TN 32 58 44 53 / 0 10 80 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 57 40 50 / 0 0 70 100 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...CD AVIATION...CD