592
FXUS64 KMRX 101058
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
658 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Key Messages:

1. Clear and sunny again today with ridging across the region.

2. Dry air remains in place with warmer temperatures.

Discussion:

Upper ridge and surface high pressure across the region will keep
our weather calm and clear today with sunshine across the region.
Low-level ridging will be slightly stronger today which should
allow afternoon max temperatures to be 3 to 7 degrees warmer than
Monday. In addition, dry air remains in place which will lead to
low RH values this afternoon.

With high pressure in control, winds remain light with light
winds. A few high clouds may begin to increase from the south
tonight ahead of TC Francine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Key Messages:

1. Increasing rain chances Thursday through the weekend as remnants
of Francine move inland.

2. Breezy downslope winds possible at times late in the week through
the weekend.

Discussion:

Wednesday will likely be the warmest day this week and continued
dry. Winds are expected to be light and variable and we will begin
to see some moisture advection moving northward towards the end of
the day. This will be most noticeable in the clouds that move
northward during the day. Wednesday night Francine will move onto
land affecting the Gulf Coast states.

By Thursday the winds will become southeasterly/easterly through at
least Friday. While rain chances rise confidence is still low on the
rainfall totals due to low level dry air due to downslope. Forecast
soundings indicate the best chances for rain/highest QPF to be in
the southern TN Valley and along the Cumberland Plateau. Still
awaiting numerous variables that could sway the confidence. Winds
increase particularly across the higher terrain of the mountains on
Friday/Friday night. Threats of any weather impacts will be minimal
at this time.

Low chances of rain will persist into early next week as the
remnants of Francine dissipate over the Ohio Valley under weak flow
aloft. Temperatures will return to near normal by the end of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

VFR conditions prevail at all sites as high pressure dominates the
weather across the Southern Appalachians.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             89  62  87  66 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  59  88  62 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              83  54  85  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....AC
AVIATION...JB