Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 232053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
253 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2019


Cloud cover will increase through midday Sunday, as a weak storm
system moves over the Northern Rockies from the south. As in
previous forecasts, north central Idaho appears most favored for
rain amounts up to one half inch tonight through Sunday night.
This precipitation may cause some steep road embankments to shed
mud and rock suddenly, particularly along US Highway 12 and 95
corridors of north central Idaho. For western Montana,
precipitation appears to be most favorable along and south of
I-90, with slightly lower accumulations. Snow over mountain passes
is possible, however not much of the snow will stick to the road

Partial clearing by Monday morning will allow patchy fog to
develop across northwest Montana and north central Idaho valleys.
Dry conditions are anticipated for the remainder of Monday.
Another weak storm system will move over the region on Tuesday,
bringing another round of high elevation snow and valley rain.
Light accumulations are once again anticipated, with another
chance of light snow over mountain passes.

Forecast models continue to indicate an active period for the
Northern Rockies for mid-week through next weekend. A broad
trough of low pressure will be moving over the region during this
time, with a series of shortwaves moving through the trough. There
still remains some uncertainty in the details, though the
consensus is, we will be back in the well below normal temperature
ranges for this time of the year. High temperatures throughout
the region, could be as low as 10 degrees below normal. Normal
highs for the valleys this time of the year should be in the low
to mid 50s. A cold and showery mid week is looking more likely,
and some models even show the potential for snow as low as 3000
feet in elevation. Unfortunately, the cool and showery pattern
will likely remain over us, and potentially getting slightly
colder by next weekend. Again, confidence is low on any details,
including any valley snow. Though at least plan on the
unseasonably chilly weather to continue.


.AVIATION...Cloud cover will increase across the Northern Rockies
during the next 24 hours. Rain and high elevation snow showers
will eventually move northward over north central Idaho from
western Great Basin mostly after 24/0600Z. KSMN will experience
rain showers near the air field after this time, with 24/1200Z -
25/0000Z the best time frame for precipitation. KMSO and KBTM have
increased chances of rain showers after 24/1800Z, however no real
change to ceilings or visibility. Widespread terrain obscurations
across the Northern Rockies, most notably after 24/0600Z.



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