266
FXUS65 KMSO 261915
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
115 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.DISCUSSION...Breezy afternoons, mainly dry conditions, and
smoky skies will dominate the weather pattern through Monday. An
exception will be tomorrow as a weak wave will provide the lift
for a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms in the S. Bitterroot
Valley, Lemhi County, ID, and southwest MT which will lead to
concerns for a critical fire weather day in those locations. Any
storms will be capable of gusty and erratic outflow winds.

Tuesday a stronger wave associated with some Pacific moisture will
transit the Canadian border bringing showers and thunderstorms
mainly to northwest Montana and the Continental Divide. Slightly
cooler temperatures will result from cloud cover.

By Thursday, the model consensus is increasing temperatures with a
reemergence of the 4-corners high pressure. A deepening Alaskan
trough on the 2-3 Aug will force the axis of the ridge to the
east. The question then becomes, will the ridge hold and the
Northern Rockies experiences very warm temperatures with
increasing instability or a complete ridge breakdown? Future
forecasts will answer this question.


&&

.AVIATION...Breezy winds out of the west will develop this afternoon
and evening and will be the main weather feature at all terminals
today. Smoke from local and regional wildfires will degrade
visibility at times throughout the Northern Rockies today and
tonight.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...&&

$$