Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 160958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
358 AM MDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...The ridge of high pressure will continue to be the
dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for one more day.
Temperatures will once again warm to above normal readings with
most locations being in the upper 80s to mid 90s. A plume of
monsoonal moisture appears to make its way into the region later
today. This moisture has the potential of producing a few showers
and thunderstorms across portions of north central Idaho and
southwest Montana. Any storms that do develop could create gusty
and erratic winds.

The models are still on track of a shortwave trough swinging
through the Northern Rockies Friday into Saturday. This feature
will cause an increase in convection especial for locations south
of the I-90 corridor. The moisture feed associated with this
disturbance will be fairly hefty, so these storms have the
potential of producing moderate to heavy rainfall. Temperatures
will only cool a few degrees on Friday, but should be back to
seasonal readings by Saturday.

A weak disturbance sliding southward out of British Columbia and
Alberta Canada will aide in the development of scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Shower and storm
development will be mainly tied to the higher terrain, with the
Continental Divide seeing the best potential for showers and
storms. Seasonal temperatures are expected Sunday through early
next week, with western Montana valleys reaching into the low to
mid 80s and north central Idaho valleys reaching into the low to
mid 90s. The Northern Rockies will begin a drying and slight
warming trend Tuesday onward as high pressure redevelops.


.AVIATION...The ridge of high pressure will persist for another 24
hours which will mean another day of widespread haze and impactful
smoke across the region. A plume of monsoonal moisture will make
its way into the northern Rockies later today producing a few
showers and thunderstorms. KSMN and KBTM appear to have the best
chance of being impacted by this convection this
afternoon/evening. Any storms that develop today will have the
potential of gusty and erratic winds.


MT...Fire Weather Watch from 2 PM MDT this afternoon through this
     evening Bitterroot...Deerlodge/West Beaverhead.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     Bitterroot...Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead...
     East Lolo.

ID...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     Clearwater/Nez Perce...Palouse/Hells Canyon.


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