Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 292323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
423 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

Issued at 102 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

The warming trend continues, with its peak expected Thursday.
Slight cool down over the weekend with another warming possible
warming trend next week.


(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 102 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

Temperatures continue to warm with this afternoon offering highs
peaking in the 80s in the more interior areas, while the coast
continues to stay in the 50s and lower 60s. Cloud cover eroded in
the mid morning, but some coastal clouds begin to return in the
evening and overnight.

Temperatures cool at a fair pace overnight, with widespread lows
in the 50s. Meaning those warmer interior areas get a good break
between these warm days.

Thursday offers the warmest temperatures of the week with the
interior areas breaking into the 90s, but still only into the 60s
along the immediate coast.


(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 102 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

Again, overnight temperatures allow for a nice break from the heat
Thursday night. Friday starts a modest cooling trend, with
interior locations still breaking into the 80s and low 90s, but
these high temperatures will continue to ease over the weekend.

Longer term models and ensembles hint at another warming trend
over the next work week. The peak of the warming still has some
arguments in overall model output. The model trends keep pushing
the warmest temperatures later into the next work week as the
upper level pattern change continues to be delayed. This will
continue to be something the forecast team keeps a close eye on.

Be sure to keep checking in!


(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 410 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period for all
terminals except MRY, where IFR/LIFR ceilings may develop early
Thursday morning, but burn off by mid-morning. Breezy west winds
this afternoon will taper off somewhat through the overnight and
tomorrow morning before increasing once again tomorrow afternoon
under mostly clear skies.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Gusty westerly winds
this afternoon, peaking at around 30 kts, will ease this evening
but remain breezy through the overnight. Gusty west winds develop
again Thursday afternoon under mostly clear skies.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with clear skies will persist the
remainder of the afternoon and evening, with periods of IFR CIGs
expected to develop during the overnight hours, along with some
areas of mist and fog along the coast line.


(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1014 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

Strengthening surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean
will move east, tightening the pressure gradient, allowing for
strong northwesterly winds with gale force gusts to prevail today
and tomorrow. As this surface high pressure weakens and
retrogrades  to the west heading into the weekend, gale force
gusts will be  allowed to subside and northwesterly winds will be
allowed to slightly diminish although still remaining strong
through Saturday.  Significant wave heights build to 12 to 14 feet
by tomorrow with  an abating trend set for Friday into the


PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.



SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock

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