Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 242105
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
205 PM PDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Expect afternoon and evening sea breezes through the
weekend, low clouds and fog along the immediate coast will move
locally inland each night and morning. Warm to hot afternoon
temperatures will continue across the interior while cooler
temperatures will occur at the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 02:05 PM PDT Friday...Weak upper level
troughing over the area has allowed for the daytime highs to come
down slightly when compared to the last several days. Saturday
will be a near repeat of Friday, marine layer and all. This means
a few spots of drizzle are possible as well. Sunday will bring a
short duration warming trend as a ridge builds over the west.
Ensemble models have been consistent with a 500 mb ridge building
in late Saturday into Monday. As such, temperatures will be on the
increase again for Sunday and Monday, and even into Tuesday for
some areas. Temps will not be as hot as the last bout of heat and
overnight lows are expected to be a little cooler comparatively.
With the ridge building in from the south, the hottest areas are
expected in our southern service area, so Southern Monterey and
San Benito Counties. There was discussion with WFO LOX about a
possible heat advisory for the Southern Salinas Valley for Sunday
and Monday, but we opted to kick the can down the road as the
range of possibilities in the overnight low provide confidence
that there should be enough of a cool down to offer relief of some
of the daytime heating. Either way, temps will be running 5-15
degrees warmer than average Saturday through Tuesday, except at
the coast where they will likely be average or a few degrees below
due to a compressed marine layer. For the weekend temperature
forecast a blend of the NBM and NBM 50th percentile was used.
After Monday temps will be on the slow slide to normal or even
several degrees below normal.

What about rain? None.
Anymore thunderstorms? Not in the near term. We`ll be watching for
more monsoonal moisture in the first few days of July as models
have a difficult time deciphering things out that far.

In short, warm up this weekend through Monday then a slow decline
of temps through next week. Really not much to write home about.

&&

.AVIATION... As of 11:40 AM PDT Friday... For the 18Z TAFs.
Little day to day change expected today and tomorrow with a semi
persistent compressed marine stratus deck banked along the
immediate coast for this afternoon. A similar return of marine
stratus tonight to coastal and nearshore locations with likely
VLIFR-LIFR with periods of fog at KMRY/KSNS and patchy FEW/SCT
brief BKN at KSTS/KAPC/KOAK, and VFR elsewhere inland. Onshore
winds continue at all terminals today, generally light, becoming
locally breezy near coastal gaps this afternoon, strongest near
KSFO to around 15-20kt. Similar conditions for Saturday.

Vicinity of KSFO... VFR with low clouds failing to intrude past
the Golden Gate and San Bruno Gap. Afternoon sustained winds
13-18kt, easing overnight. A few to scattered low clouds over the
Bay from the NE overnight to tomorrow morning, but not expecting
significant impacts at terminal.

KSFO Bridge Approach... Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay...VFR at terminals but low clouds linger over the
Bay, return through this evening, and becoming VLIFR-LIFR
overnight to tomorrow morning. Similar, if not slightly later
return versus yesterday. Slight onshore breeze this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...as of 02:05 PM PDT Friday...Northwest winds across the
waters today with more westerly winds nearshore. Generally lighter
winds from Point Reyes southward with stronger, occasionally
gusty, winds in the waters North of Point Reyes, especially south
of Point Arena and in the outer waters and through Golden Gate gap
to Angel Island. Generally typical summer time wind driven seas
out of the northwest again today with a longer period (17-18
second) southwest swell mixed in. Winds and seas ease this
weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM
             SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BFG
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP

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