Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 260005
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
505 PM PDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A weak front will pass through the area this evening
with light rain showers. The front will stall over the South Bay
and Central Coast on Tuesday keeping a chance of showers in the
forecast for southern areas. The next front will push into the
area later Tuesday night into early Wednesday with another
organized chance of rain. Shower and isolated thunderstorms will
be possible Wednesday before ending by Thursday. Drying trend
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 1:51 PM PDT Monday...A frontal boundary is
weakening as it passes through the Bay Area this afternoon and
evening. Showers will continue to impact the afternoon/evening
commute but mainly be light to occasionally moderate in intensity.
Shower activity will decrease this evening and overnight. The
surface boundary will wash out over the South Bay and Central
Coast by early Tuesday morning.

As the main upper trough approaches on Tuesday, there may be
sufficient upper lift/divergence over the left over surface
boundary to allow for more showers to develop on Tuesday. In
contrast to today the best chances will be from the far East Bay
counties through the South Bay and around the Central Coast in the
vicinity of the surface moisture boundary. The nam model remains
most bullish on generating showers Tuesday while the ecmwf and gfs
are drier.

Rain chances will then increase again later Tuesday night into
Weds, especially across the North Bay as another surface front
approaches the region. This will lead to increased shower chances
right through Weds morning. Enough cold air aloft by Weds to allow
thunderstorm chances be put into the forecast (as inherited from
overnight shift).

The parent upper low responsible for all the shower chances the
next few days will finally move onshore late Weds night into
Thursday morning. Precip chances should rapidly end by late
Thursday afternoon and evening. For all the talk of showers the
next few days, amounts in general look to be light with some
portions of interior Monterey/San Benito potentially seeing no
rainfall at all. Daytime highs will be on the cool side of normal
with cloud cover and cool temps aloft. However, any peaks of
sunshine will allow temps to jump into the 60s most days.

High pressure to build Friday into the weekend with dry and mild
weather. Storm track remains somewhat active next week but right
now the best precip chances remain north of I-80.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 4:45 PM PDT Monday...For 00z TAFs. The passing
cold front is gradually moving south and east across the region
spreading rain to area terminals at the moment. Rain will continue
to slide south this evening with showers lingering through
tonight. Bay Area terminals may see rain linger through Tuesday.
Winds will remain light south to southwesterly to calm and
variable overnight. MVFR to VFR cigs will prevail through much of
the period.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cigs will prevail with showers gradually
tapering to vicinity showers overnight. Light south to
southwesterly winds will persist through this evening then
becoming light and variable overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR to MVFR cigs will prevail with
showers possible overnight as the front slides south. Moderate
and gusty winds will diminish and turn easterly overnight.

&&

.MARINE...as of 2:14 PM PDT Monday...Low pressure off the Oregon
coast will keep light to moderate southerly winds through Tuesday
night. Stronger winds can be expected over the central waters this
evening and over the northern waters Tuesday night. Winds will
switch to southwest on Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure
builds off the California coast.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 9 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 9 PM
             SCA...SF Bay until 6 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W Pi

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