Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 211804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1004 AM PST Thu Nov 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds in the North and East Bay mountains will
decrease this morning. Dry conditions, along with seasonable
temperatures, are forecast today through the upcoming weekend.
Rain chances will develop by late Tuesday of next week and
possibly impact the Thanksgiving holiday.

&& of 09:06 AM PST Thursday...Mainly clear sky
conditions and light winds resulted in a chilly morning over much
of the region. Temperatures are now warming into the upper 40s to
middle 50s and will top out in the lower/middle 60s for much of
the region this afternoon. Low level clouds are impacting much of
Santa Cruz County this morning under moist southerly flow.
Elsewhere, look for dry and mostly sunny conditions through the
day. With this said, the ongoing forecast remains on track with no
updates needed at this time. Please see the forecast discussion
below for additional details.


.PREV DISCUSSION...As of 3:19 AM PST Thursday...Latest automated
observations indicate some gusty offshore winds are still
occurring in the North and East Bay Hills with wind gusts
generally in the 30-40 mph range. However, relative humidity
values are over 30 percent in these breezier areas. After
coordinating with neighboring offices, the Red Flag Warning has
been canceled. Satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies,
except some low coastal stratus extending into Santa Cruz County,
and some higher clouds over portions of the the southern half of
the district.

Dry weather will continue through the rest of the work week and
through early next week. Overnight low temperatures are forecast
to cool into the 30s to mid 40s during the weekend, coolest in the
inland valleys. High temps will be mild, generally in the 60s.

A pattern shift is still looking probable next week. Models remain
in relatively good agreement in bringing a cool upper level
trough in from the northwest on Tuesday, with widespread rain
developing by late that day. Shower chances to persist through
midweek with the trough moving east by Friday.

&& of 10:04 AM PST Thursday...For 18z TAFs. VFR
continues at the TAF sites this morning. Southerly flow is
bringing low clouds to Santa Cruz County and off the coast of
Monterey and San Mateo Counties. VFR will continue through the
afternoon with winds 5-10 kt. Offshore winds this morning will
transition to west or southwest this afternoon. MVFR cigs will
expand along the coastline this evening. Some low clouds could
make their way into the San Francisco Bay terminals overnight
tonight into Friday morning.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. North to northeast winds around 5 kt
becoming light SW after 00Z. Some low clouds could begin to move
over the terminal and approach late tonight into Friday morning
but confidence on extent is low.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...E-SE winds around 5 kt at MRY and 5-10
kt in the Salinas Valley. Northwest winds at KSNS around 20-21z
and southwest at KMRY around 20z. MVFR cigs expected to return
this evening.


.FIRE WEATHER....As of 3:17 AM PST Thursday...Gusty offshore
winds in the hills of the North and East Bay have subsided
overnight, but some gusts remain in the 30 to 40 mph range.
Relative humidity values remain over 30 percent, however, so the
Red Flag Warning has been canceled.

Fire weather concerns will return early next week as medium range
models suggest another round of offshore flow impacting the
region and be potentially more widespread. Hot dry windy index
shows values increasing to nearly 400 by Monday. Stay tuned - fire
season is definitely not over until the region receives
widespread wetting rainfall.

&& of 09:06 AM PST Thursday...Low pressure over
southern California will move slowly east. This will bring light
east to southeast winds through Friday. Winds will switch to north
to northwest late on Friday. A long-period northwest swell will
build on Friday and continue through the weekend.





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