629
FXUS66 KMTR 261955
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1255 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Temperatures cool down more significantly beginning today with
below average temperatures to persist through mid next week. Some
potential for light drizzle along the coast Friday into Saturday
and Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through tonight)
Issued at 1254 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Temperatures look to peak in the mid-to-upper 90`s across the far
interior, 70`s and 80`s around the South Bay and North Bay valleys,
and upper 50`s to 60`s near the coast this afternoon. Tonight,
expecting more widespread low clouds, fog, and coastal drizzle to
impact the region as the marine layer deepens. This is in response
to a mid/upper level trough moving across the region. Minimum
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 40`s across the colder
interior spots with 50`s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Temperatures continue to cool Saturday and Sunday with widespread
70s to 80s expected inland and 60s to 70s expected closer to the
coast. Upper level troughing will continue to deepen over the
weekend which will help to keep temperatures cooler and contribute
to some slight potential for light drizzle. Overnight Friday into
Saturday and Saturday into Sunday, decent low level moisture at
850mb and 700mb will support the development of light drizzle to
light rain along the coast and in areas where upslope ascent is
favored. Both the NBM and the HRRR pick up on light coastal drizzle
overnight this weekend with some potential for light showers over
the marine environment. The NBM is showing very light precipitation
totals along the coast and bay shoreline with totals ranging from a
trace to a few hundredths of an inch.

The upper level pattern will become more zonal by early next week
which will allow for temperatures to warm slightly. In general,
temperatures are expected to gradually increase a few degrees each
day beginning Monday but high temperatures will still remain below
average through mid-week. By mid to late next week, a little more
uncertainty enters the forecast in regards to how fast high
temperatures will warm up again. Ensemble guidance indicates ridging
will start to build over the Western US by mid to late next week but
cluster analysis indicates that it is less certain where exactly the
ridge will set up. Temperatures could be slightly warmer depending
on if the ridge is centered more directly over the West Coast vs
temperatures could be slightly cooler if the ridge is centered to
the east of the coast. Regardless, it is looking likely that above
average temperatures will return with the current forecast and the
CPC 8-14 day outlook both in support of slightly above average
temperatures returning by the first week of August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals with stratus along the coastline.
The marine layer will continue to deepen, therefore all terminals
are forecast to get some form of a ceiling tonight. Winds will
remain onshore through the TAF period. Slant range visibilities
will likely be impacted due to haze and smoke.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. Winds will
prevail out of the west through the TAF period. Moderate-to-high
confidence on the terminal developing an IFR ceiling this evening.
The TAF was constructed with optimism and a reasonable best case
scenario for clearing time tomorrow; however, it may clear later as
some models/guidance don`t have it clearing until 21Z-00Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low clouds will filter in early this evening
and linger through the TAF period.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and
VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Moderate-to-high confidence on
LIFR ceilings developing at both terminals this evening. Winds will
prevail out of the west through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 843 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes with strong gusts will
prevail through the forecast period. Significant wave heights will
continue to abate through the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay
     N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea