Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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644 FXUS65 KABQ 290535 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1135 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening mainly north of a line from Grants to Clovis, except for numerous cells around Raton and Capulin. The recent warming trend will continue through mid week with high temperatures mostly in the 70s and 80s at lower elevations starting Monday, and highs peaking around 3 to 13 degrees above 1991 to 2020 averages on Wednesday. Southwest winds will also become breezy to windy on Wednesday with very low humidities and widespread fire weather concerns. Temperatures will cool closer to 30-year averages as winds shift out of the northwest and remain breezy on Thursday, when a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeast plains near the Colorado border. The potential exists for strong to severe thunderstorms east of the central mountain chain on Saturday with gusty sprinkles as far west the continental divide. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Yesterdays upper low has lifted into NE/SD with a lagging shortwave trough having dropped into AZ and soon to be into NM. While temperatures aloft have warmed a couple degrees, there is still a deep thermal trough over the Rockies and high plains with anomalous readings of -16 to -18 C over much of NM. This is allowing the lower half of the troposphere to destabilize, and convective showers and a few thunderstorms should continue taking shape through early evening. While areas near the NM-CO border will remain the favored area for rainfall, it should also be noted that a meso-high is being modeled by CAMs and higher resolution synoptic models over the far northeast highlands which could produce a dry outflow boundary over adjacent northeastern zones through the late evening. As the sun sets, stability will be restored and a clearing trend should follow as the shortwave pushes eastward into TX. Overnight temperatures will not be as chilly as this mornings readings. A mostly clear, warmer and moderately breezy day is then in store for the remainder of the day Monday as dry zonal flow aloft prevails with a weak lee- side surface low developing just east of the Sangre de Cristos. Monday night also looks to remain mostly void of moisture for any clouds. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Fair weather with warming temperatures and some gusty afternoon winds Tuesday under zonal flow aloft. The warming trend will continue Wednesday, and breezy to windy conditions will develop with fire weather concerns as an upper level trough crossing the northern and central Rockies strengthens the flow aloft over NM. The strongest winds on Wednesday afternoon may reach 50 mph across northeast areas, where a strong lee trough will develop south of a ~988 mb surface low in southeast CO. The upper trough is forecast to drive a gusty Pacific cold front southeastward through the forecast area on Thursday, then a backdoor cold front southward through the eastern plains Thursday afternoon and night, with cooling temperatures areawide. After high temperatures around 3-13 degrees above 1991-2020 averages on Wednesday, readings will fall around 3-13 degrees with continued breezy conditions on Thursday. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains near the CO border Thursday afternoon and evening, and perhaps again over the Sangres on Friday. Models now indicate the backdoor cold front will be too shallow to push into the central valley with a gusty east wind Thursday night, and a little too dry to trigger showers and storms across the bulk of the eastern plains on Friday. However, they do bring a moist southeasterly low-level return flow into the forecast area Friday afternoon through Saturday. This may set the stage for a potential severe weather outbreak across eastern NM Saturday afternoon, depending on the progress a west coast low pressure system makes moving inland. With enough progress, the storm system will be able to strengthen the vertical wind shear and enhance severe thunderstorm chances over eastern NM. At this time, there is also some uncertainty about how for into central NM the moist return flow will reach Saturday. Usually this time of year moisture that reaches the central valley will tend to shift eastward with afternoon atmospheric mixing leading to only sprinkles and dry microbursts with a risk of locally damaging winds. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Mid level clouds across eastern NM will fully dissipate by around 29/09Z. VFR and SKC will prevail for the rest of the TAF period. Light southwest to west winds develop in the afternoon. Winds will be a bit breezy at times across the central and northeast highlands between KCQC and KLVS through the early evening due to being in the vicinity of a weak surface lee trough. Light winds areawide after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN MID WEEK... Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through the early evening, mainly over north central and very far northeastern NM where there will be fewer recipients of soaking rainfall. A few cloud-to-ground lightning strikes will remain a possibility in these areas, and some gusty outflow winds will also accompany showers and storms while otherwise moderately breezy conditions settle through the evening. Breezy conditions will repeat themselves on Monday and Tuesday while a warming and drying (lower humidity) trend become more pronounced. With breezes generally limited to a 15 to 25 mph range, no critical concerns are foreseen for the final couple of days of April. However, an upstream upper level trough will move just east of the Great Basin (into ID/UT), bringing stronger southwest winds to NM. The northeast highlands and plains appear to observe the strongest winds on Wednesday where higher chances for critical conditions will be expected with very low humidity already in place, but the middle to lower Rio Grande valley will also be another secondary area of concern. There is still some forecast model uncertainty with the track and timing of the disturbance aloft, but it should at least overtake CO by Thursday along with an associated front. While this could lead to cooler temperatures on Thursday, the humidity does not appear to rise much, nor is there much precipitation advertised, so this will likely keep a critical fire threat going into Thursday. Winds would then likely relax more into Friday and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 37 72 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 28 67 33 72 / 20 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 33 68 38 71 / 20 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 29 71 34 73 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 30 67 34 70 / 10 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 30 71 34 75 / 20 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 32 70 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 39 73 45 75 / 10 0 0 0 Datil........................... 34 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 31 75 34 78 / 10 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 42 78 46 82 / 5 0 0 0 Chama........................... 27 61 30 66 / 30 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 40 67 46 71 / 10 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 36 68 41 71 / 20 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 63 40 67 / 40 0 0 0 Red River....................... 26 58 28 64 / 50 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 21 61 20 65 / 40 0 0 0 Taos............................ 29 68 33 72 / 30 0 0 0 Mora............................ 33 67 38 71 / 30 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 37 73 42 79 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 38 69 43 73 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 36 73 41 76 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 43 74 49 79 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 45 76 50 80 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 37 78 42 83 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 43 76 48 80 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 39 79 44 83 / 10 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 41 76 47 81 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 37 78 42 83 / 10 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 41 77 47 82 / 10 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 38 78 43 83 / 10 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 41 73 46 76 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 43 76 48 80 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 45 80 49 85 / 10 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 39 67 45 70 / 10 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 40 70 45 74 / 10 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 37 70 41 75 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 33 72 36 76 / 10 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 36 68 40 72 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 37 70 43 75 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 39 71 43 75 / 10 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 45 74 50 80 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 37 70 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 34 69 38 74 / 70 0 0 0 Raton........................... 34 72 37 77 / 60 0 0 0 Springer........................ 35 74 38 78 / 40 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 36 71 41 75 / 20 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 41 75 48 83 / 30 0 0 0 Roy............................. 39 73 45 79 / 40 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 43 81 47 85 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 42 78 45 82 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 43 81 48 87 / 20 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 46 81 50 87 / 20 0 0 0 Portales........................ 46 82 49 88 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 45 82 48 86 / 10 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 50 86 53 93 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 47 79 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 44 77 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...71