Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 082353 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
553 PM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 PM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

Main concern for the short range is the storm expected late Thursday
night and Friday. But first things first. For tonight a sfc
trof/front and some energy aloft are expected to move east over the
region. CAMS comp reflectivity progs hint at some light pcpn,
especially over the western CWA late tnt. With warm air aloft
advecting into the region, a mix of pcpn types will be possible with
anything that forms. For now will confine said pcpn to the western
CWA and pretty much end it before 12z. In the east, some
precipitation may get going early Thursday morning ahead of
advancing sfc front, but most of any measurable pcpn will probably
occur east of the CWA.

Attention then turns to Thursday night/Friday. Most of the latest
12z model runs have shifted the QPF/Snow axis a bit north vs
previous runs. GEFS plumes are still somewhat chaotic but the
majority of them over the southern CWA still suggest a fairly low
QPF event. The I90 corridor, however, may need some sort of wintry
weather headline if the northward trend continues. As for
temperatures, didn`t stray too much from the model blend given snow
on the ground etc. That said, fairly good mixing may allow for temps
a bit above guidance on Thursday. And a LLJ tonight should serve
to keep temperatures milder vs the last few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

The storm system that will affect mainly southern portions of the
area will be ongoing Friday morning. Latest model runs have shifted
the system a bit further north, so went ahead and increased POPs
during the daytime hours Friday using a 50/50 blend of the NBM and
CONSall. Still looking as though areas along and south of Interstate
90 will see the highest amounts, with current model runs indicating
3 to 5 inches of snow accumulation, with much lower amounts to the
north of the Interstate, and little to no accumulation north of
Highway 212. The system exits the area Friday evening, with much of
the remainder of the extended period featuring dry and mild
conditions. There is some indication of another storm system
potentially affecting the Northern and Central Plains toward the
middle of next week. Will continue to monitor for now as things are
likely to change between now and then.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 30s, and in the 30s to
lower 40s on Saturday. The remainder of the period will see high
temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s. Low temperatures Friday night
will be in the teens, then will be in the 20s through the rest of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 548 PM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR flying weather is forecast for all four terminals over the
next 24 hours. There is a low probability chance for some light
rain or light freezing rain to be moving into the KMBG terminal,
briefly, between 06Z and 12Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn


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