Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 290159 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
859 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Issued at 851 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

With the changing of airmasses from warm/semi-moist to less
warm/dry, it is likely there will be some places flirting with 39
or 40 degrees for a night-time low temperature. Have made a few
modifications to the overnight low temperature forecast to lower
forecast values a few degrees mainly from the James River valley
over to Corson/Dewey Counties west-river where the lightest winds
are forecast to set up overnight. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature over the area
tonight and Friday, keeping conditions dry and temperatures near
normal. As low pressure crosses the central Rockies and toward the
High Plains region, the high will begin to get pushed east. Between
these two systems, may see some precipitation develop along the nose
of a 20 to 30 knot low level jet. This precipitation looks to reach
the southwestern part of the CWA late Friday night. Expecting just
rain showers for now as instability is pretty much non existent.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 40s, with highs on
Friday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows on Friday night will be
mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Lingering showers may remain in south central and southeast SD at
the start of the long term, as the mid-level shortwave moves its way
out of the state Saturday. Clouds may break up a bit later in the
day but mostly cloudy conditions remain through the weekend. The
upper ridge sitting over the Rockies shifts eastward into the
Midwest as we start next week, leading to warmer than normal
conditions. Highs for Sat/Sun are expected to be in the upper 60s
and mid 70s, but climb into the 80s for the remainder of next
week. Ridging breaks down a bit towards mid-week, becoming more
zonal, and models show several shortwaves next week, bringing
increasing chances for thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020


Breezy northwest winds of 15 to 30 knots will become light and
variable later this evening. VFR conditions are forecast to
prevail across the area through Friday afternoon.

***Construction to improve the taxiway for runway 13 at the KPIR
terminal may cause an occasional temporary visibility reduction due
to blowing dust (bldu), mainly during daytime hours UFN.***




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