021
FXUS63 KABR 081854
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
154 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record/near record temperatures today with highs in the 60s to
  low 70s. High to very high grassland fire danger across central
  SD into the early evening hours.

- System affecting northern SD Monday/Monday night may bring
  around an inch of snow accumulation. Cooler on Monday behind a
  passing cold front tonight.

- Another system for Tuesday/Tuesday night has the potential to
  bring around 1 to perhaps 3 inches of snow to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

West-southwest wind gusts are beginning to increase to 30-40mph
across portions of the region, although it`s been noted winds have
taken a bit longer to get gusty than originally anticipated. Also
noting obs showing RH falling into the 23-30 percent range across
central/south central SD. Will continue to monitor fire weather this
afternoon and the elevated fire danger conditions across central SD.

Cold front will drop south through the CWA overnight, entering
northern SD between 03Z and 06Z, then likely clearing the CWA by 12Z
Monday. Low-level cold air advection with northerly winds developing
through the nighttime hours as we go from 925mb temps from +15C to
+20C this afternoon, down to 0C to +5C (northern CWA) by Monday
morning. Will see highs drop back down into the 40s and 50s for most
areas, although the far southwest CWA may still see readings closer
to 60 degrees.

Low pressure will then move east-southeast across southern SD and NE
Monday evening/overnight. Models have been consistent in showing a
band of rain/snow (mostly snow) moving eastward across southern ND
into northern SD for a few days now. Highest precip chances (50-60
percent) exist across the northern CWA Monday evening. Thermal
profiles suggest mostly all snow closer to the ND/SD border, with
potential for rain or rain/snow mix further south in the CWA.
Highest NBM probability of 24-hr snowfall greater than an 1 inch
lies just over the border across southwest/south central ND, where
values range from about 40 to 55 percent. Across northern SD (north
of Hwy 12) values are lower and generally range from 20 to 40
percent. WPC Super Ensemble Plumes generally have members showing
around an inch or less accumulation for the northern CWA.

Will then be watching another area of low pressure which looks to
move eastward across the Plains Tuesday/Tuesday night. This system
looks like it has the potential to be slightly stronger than the
Monday system, but models/ensembles still not generating a huge
amount of precip or anything like that. Again, it appears warm
enough to where we will be dealing with mixed precip late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening before precip type potential becomes
all snow. Current forecast and available data has the look and feel
(for the time being) of a 1 to 3 inch-type event, but will continue
to monitor strength trends. NBM probability of 24-hr snowfall 2
inches or greater ending at 18Z Wednesday is generally 20-40 percent
across the CWA, so a stronger signal for 2 inches versus the Monday
system. Super Ensemble Plumes reveal higher end scenarios are more
in the 2 to 4 inch range. 90th percentile amounts off the NBM are
actually more in the 4 to 6 inch range across the eastern CWA, so
some trends to keep an eye on for sure as we approach Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. There may be a
short period of low-level wind shear (LLWS) conditions at KABR
tonight and have inserted mention of this. Otherwise, breezy/gusty
westerly surface winds this afternoon will switch to a northerly
direction overnight.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT