Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 150210 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
910 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Issued at 910 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Only a few isolated showers remain this evening over far northeast
SD while more showers/storms were moving into western SD with the
next short wave trough. Some of these should spread into our
western cwa after midnight where we already have pops in. Made
some adjustments to the forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Lingering showers and thunderstorms persist across parts of the
southwest CWA this afternoon. Models are still showing the forcing
mechanisms responsible for these showers diminishing this evening
before the next low pressure system moves in late tonight.
Therefore, still forecasting a break in precip between these two
systems. Warm air advection ahead of the next slow moving closed low
system will help force some showers and thunderstorms across south
central South Dakota late tonight/early Wednesday -- followed by
additional thunderstorms through the day Wednesday as the main low
tracks right over South Dakota. Models are suggesting CAPE values
rise in the 1500-2000 J/KG range by Wednesday afternoon, but
shear profiles are rather unimpressive to start. This would
suggest the opportunity for a few stronger pulse storms,
especially across the southwest CWA, but otherwise the severe
threat is low. Likewise, the latest SPC profiles just skirt the
southwest edge of the CWA with a marginal risk. The abundance of
cloud cover may make overnight low temperatures a little tricky,
however stuck with persistence and a trend toward the cooler
guidance for the low temperature forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

The period begins with a 500 mb low over the region with showers and
storms expected Wednesday night. CAPE values near 1000 J/KG, along
with 30 to 40 knots of shear may produce a few stronger storms,
mainly along the I-90 corridor. Upper level ridging and a surface
high pressure will bring dry conditions Thursday night through at
least Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, an upper level trough
and surface front will begin impacting the region. Widespread pcpn
appears possible Sunday through Sunday night. Not expecting severe
much with this feature as instability and shear is lacking.

Temperatures should remain above normal through most of the period.
A cool down is possible early next week with highs in the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Any remaining showers continue to dissipate and are not expected
to further affect any of the TAF sites. Overcast skies at KATY
are expected to continue to climb as higher clouds and clearer
skies move in. This will keep KATY from dipping back down to MVFR
CIGS. Otherwise, expect light winds and VFR conditions throughout
the region for the forecast period.




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