000
FXUS63 KABR 230557 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and windy on Tuesday behind a passing cold front overnight.

- Pattern becomes more active by week`s end with increasing chances
  for showers and thunderstorms by Friday into the start of the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 833 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is doing just fine so only minor updates for this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Plenty of dry air working into the CWA this afternoon, with most
areas along and west of the James River in the 10 to 20 percent
range. Areas further east are still expected to see a drop in RH
over the next couple hours as drier air continues to advect eastward
in the post-frontal air mass. Highest wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph
have been occurring across central/north central SD today, and
earlier issued a Wind Advisory to cover this. Will leave the
headlines in place until its current expiration time of 01Z.

Will be watching a cold front drop south across the area overnight,
with decent cold air advection and an uptick in northwest winds
later tonight (after a lull in winds after sunset), along with
cooler temperatures for Tuesday. In the lower levels (925mb), we
start off around +14C to +15C at 00Z this evening, but then cool to
around +5C to +7C by 12Z Tuesday. Looking for a bit of a setback
with highs on Tuesday compared to today, with readings dropping back
into the mid 50s to low 60s. As for winds, they appear to stay
generally below advisory levels for the time being, and in fact the
strongest winds may be morning into early afternoon, with
diminishing winds as the afternoon progresses on Tuesday.

High pressure then settles in over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota
Tuesday night. This will bring mostly clear skies, light winds, and
chilly temperatures perhaps below freezing for some areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Beginning 12Z Wednesday, our forecast area will be under the
influence of high pressure at the sfc and aloft. The center of the
sfc ridge will have translated east of our area Wednesday morning
while the ridge aloft will be building across the Northern Plains
Wednesday into Thursday. Return flow on the backside of the sfc high
will allow south to southeast winds to commence on Wednesday and
persist through Thursday. A warmer air mass will be drawn northward
into our area. 925mb temperatures are progged to warm to between
+10C to +15C on Wednesday and to between +15C to around +20C on
Thursday. This should translate nicely into daytime temperatures in
the 60s and 70s. We`ll just have to keep an eye on cloud cover vs
sunshine, which could impact how far readings warm. A tighter
pressure gradient these days will lead to gusty south to southeast
winds. Models continue to peg Thursday as the windiest day across
the board for our CWA. Most of our zones have a 50-90 percent chance
to see wind gusts reach or exceed 40 mph.

The upper flow pattern will begin to shift by the end of the work
week. An upper trough is progged to trek across the 4 Corners region
turning our flow southwesterly. This system is forecast to lift
northeast into our region on Friday into Saturday. Sfc low pressure
in conjunction with this upper disturbance will increase our
rainfall chances by early Friday. In fact, during the day Friday
into Friday evening appear to be the wettest period from this
system. Lingering rain showers will be possible into the start of
the weekend, but guidance does hint that a drying trend may take
hold for a short time anyway. Another follow on upper trough is
progged by longer range guidance to take a similar track early next
week. This could increase our pcpn chances again by late in the
weekend into Monday. Models are still fluctuating on how they handle
this system, so uncertainty still remains. The 12Z deterministic set
has latched onto a bit of different solution from previous runs in
taking this early next week system just a bit farther south and east
of our forecast area. We`ll just have to keep an eye on trends
during the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday, except perhaps around
KABR/KATY during the morning hours today where an occasional MVFR
cig could occur. Northerly winds will again turn gusty with
daytime heating later today.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Dorn