716
FXAK68 PAFC 270005
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
405 PM AKDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday night)...

A deep negatively tilted upper level trough continues to push
steady light to moderate rain through Southcentral Alaska.
Precipitation will continue to taper off through Saturday from
southwest to northeast as the upper low and trough exit to the
north and east. Conditions will clear out and clouds will decrease
under drier westerly flow aloft leading to relatively warmer
temperatures and some sunshine on Saturday.

Strong zonal flow aloft will steer a shortwave trough quickly
eastward from the Bering into the Gulf on Sunday. There is still
model spread with regards to the track and timing of of the
shortwave and whether it clips Southcentral or remains mostly
south over Kodiak Island and the Gulf. Regardless, there is
another chance of a quick-hitting rain event on Sunday as this
shortwave moves through. There is higher confidence in another
upper level low and trough crossing the Bering Sea and into
southern Alaska Sunday night into Monday. This is expected to
bring another round of widespread light to moderate rain across
Southcentral Alaska.

-ME/SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Discussion:

The occluded upper low has lifted up towards the Yukon Delta and
Norton Sound region this afternoon with associated frontal boundary
pushing northeastwards across interior Alaska. More widespread
precipitation has transitioned over to more showery conditions as
the 500 mb low center and cooler temperatures aloft have steepened
lapse rates over the Kuskokwim Delta. Showers should diminish from
southwest to northeast this evening as the upper low continues to
track inland tonight. Weak shortwave ridging moving in behind this
system will allow for continued onshore flow, and possibly resulting
in some areas of fog developing by Saturday morning.

Another disturbance is currently moving across the central Aleutians
bringing moderate to heavy rain, some gusty winds, and low ceilings.
This system is starting to weaken as cloud tops are gradually
warming, and will push east of the southern AKPen by Saturday
morning. However, several more disturbances will quickly move in on
nearly zonal flow behind the aforementioned system keeping the
Aleutians and Southwest in an unsettled pattern. Will likely see a
brief lull in rain and maybe see some peeks of sun between systems.
More widespread rainfall returns to Southwest Sunday morning and
into early next workweek with a Bering low pushing towards the
Kuskokwim Delta.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday to Friday)...

An upper level trough digging across Southwest Alaska Monday will
continue to push east through late Monday into Tuesday. This
feature, while slightly different with each forecast model, looks
to bring widespread rain to Southwest Alaska late Sunday through
Monday and to Southcentral Alaska early Monday through early
Tuesday.

Unsettled conditions with periods of showers are then expected to
persist for Southern Alaska Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper
level low remains situated over mainland Alaska. Gusty
northwesterly gap winds are possible across the Alaska Peninsula
on Tuesday as the low departs to the east over the Northern Gulf
and a weak transient surface high builds in over the central
Aleutians. Another system emerges from the North Pacific and
impacts the Aleutians with periods of rain on Wednesday. Overall,
temperatures will remain below average for the long term period
with persistent cloud cover and rain.

-DD

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Showers will linger through the evening hours as a series
of shortwaves moves through the region. Expect mainly VFR
conditions this afternoon and evening with the occasional and
brief MVFR period in any lingering showers. VFR conditions will
then return as the primary trough axis crosses through the area
between 00Z and 06Z tonight. Gusty south winds will prevail for
much of the afternoon and early evening. Winds will diminish by
08z tonight.

CCC

&&


$$