Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 262313

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
313 PM AKDT Thu Apr 26 2018

An unsettled pattern will continue through the weekend across the
west coast and western Interior. Winds will be the main forecast
concern across the forecast area, mainly the Tanana Valley Jet and
south gap winds through the Alaska Range through early next week.
The latest model solutions are in agreement through the weekend
regarding the overall synoptic setup with increasing spread in
solutions from Monday onward. 500 mb, a 514 dam low over the Chukotsk Peninsula will
remain quasi-stationary through Saturday before shifting east into
the Chukchi Sea Saturday night and over northwest Alaska by Monday
morning. Several shortwaves will rotate around this low and over
the area through the weekend. The first will be southwest of Saint
Lawrence Island this afternoon, then trek southwest into the
southwest tonight, and then lift northeast over the interior
Friday and Friday night. The second will move into the northern
Bering Saturday morning, then proceed east over the Seward
Peninsula Saturday, and then over the Brooks Range through Sunday
morning. Another low will form over the southern Bering Sea
Saturday night, then push east towards the west coast Sunday, and
the over the Interior through late Monday.

Surface...A 995 mb low over the Chukotsk Peninsula rotate back
west along the northern coast of the peninsula and weaken through
tomorrow morning. A second low, at 996 mb, near St Matthew Island
will push east into the southwest coast late tonight and then
rotate back northwest and weaken over the Seward Peninsula Friday
morning, and over the Chukchi Sea by Saturday morning. A third
low, at 982 mb, over the Kamchatka Peninsula will move out into
the western Bering Sea by tomorrow morning and then continue east
to be over Nunivak Island by Saturday morning. This low will
move inland and then over the interior as it weakens through
Sunday. A 1020 mb ridge of high pressure over the eastern Arctic
will remain in place into early next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...Unsettled weather pattern will
persist over the area through the weekend as several lows move
overhead. Precipitation type will vary diurnally (rain/snow day,
snow night) with the western interior primarily seeing rain
during the day and the coast where the primary precip type during
the day will be rain seeing a mix of snow and rain. Parts of
Norton Sound and Bering Strait coast can see around 1 to 2 inches
of snow through tomorrow morning. The second system, progged to
move into the west coast Saturday morning, will bring another
round of snow of 1 to 3 inches over the area, especially inland
Friday night into Saturday morning. There is the potential to see
more in southern upslope areas in the Brooks Range as well. Gusty
winds to around 40 mph along the west coast will weaken this
evening. Otherwise, winds will remain generally under 25 mph
through the weekend.

Eastern and Central Interior...Southerly gap winds through Alaska
Range passes will continue through the weekend, but vary in
strength over time. Late Saturday afternoon gap winds will
increase, especially through Isabel Pass and north into Delta
Junction where gusts will approach and likely exceed advisory
levels by Sunday evening. The Tanana Valley Jet will develop
Saturday morning and persist into Sunday. Chances for rain and/or
snow showers across the area will continue through Sunday. Both
the GFS and ECMWF are hinting the potential for several rounds of
spring rainfall as southwest flow develops and persists next week.
Details are a bit hazy as there are model guidance differences to
the timing and amount. Temperatures will be fairly steady over the
next couple of days, then warming Sunday into next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Fairly quiet weather expected to
persist into the weekend. A band of stratus and fog located north
of Point Barrow will expand south towards the Arctic Coast this
evening reaching the coast by sunrise tomorrow morning as depicted
by the AK-HRRR. Leeside troughing north of the eastern Brooks
Range combined with high pressure shifting south over the eastern
Beaufort Sea will result in an increased pressure gradient east of
Deadhorse. This will result in easterly winds increasing with
gusts to around 35 mph by Sunday morning.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


.FIRE WEATHER...Alaska Range gap winds will persist through the
weekend into next weekend. Gap winds will increase Saturday
afternoon with gusts up to 50 mph possible. Minimum RH values
this afternoon/evening will be around 30 percent southeast of a
line from Circle to North Pole. Slightly drier conditions Friday
afternoon/evening with minimum RH values in the mid 20s to lower




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