761
FXAK69 PAFG 160030
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 PM AKST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions continue across much of Northern Alaska
today, with areas of low stratus, patchy fog, and isolated snow
showers. A strong low pressure system remains on track to work
north along the West Coast through the Bering Sea starting Sunday
into Monday, supporting widespread gusty winds, snow, and warming
temperatures. An overlap of gusty winds and snow could lead to
significant reductions in visibility at times. Winter Storm
Watches are now in effect starting late Sunday into Monday for the
Yukon Delta, Norton Sound Coastline, and Seward Peninsula for
gusty winds and snow. A continued active weather pattern is
expected to persist in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska through
midweek, as a series of low pressure systems and fronts moving
into Alaska help to reinforce warmer temperatures, winds, and snow
chances to finish out the week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Interior
  through the weekend, with areas of low stratus and patchy fog,
  in addition to isolated snow showers tonight into Sunday
  primarily out towards Tok, Northway, and Eagle.

- Highs in the single digits above and below zero with lows in the
  single and double digits below zero. Coldest locations mostly
  out across the Yukon Flats will see highs in the double digits
  below zero with overnight lows bottoming out around 20 to 30
  below.

- Southerly winds are expected to ramp up through Windy Pass and
  Isabel Pass Sunday night into Monday, with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

- Temperatures trend warmer Monday into Tuesday as isolated to
  scattered snow chances return across much of the Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions continue across Western Alaska today,
  with areas of low stratus, patchy fog, and flurries.

- A much more active weather pattern ramps up starting Sunday into
  Monday and continues through much of next week as a series of
  storms in the Bering Sea lift north along the West Coast with
  gusty winds, widespread snow, and warmer temperatures.

- Winter Storm Watches are now in effect starting late Sunday into
  Monday for the Yukon Delta, Norton Sound Coastline, and Seward
  Peninsula for gusty winds and snow. Total snow accumulations
  around 2-5", locally higher around 3-8" across the southern
  Seward Peninsula.

- Strongest winds Sunday and Monday will remain offshore and at
  St. Lawrence Island, where gusts up to 50 mph are possible.
  Winds elsewhere along the West Coast will see gusts peak around
  20-40 mph.

- Temperatures see a steady warming trend early next week as a
  moist and warmer airmass moves in with southerly flow.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks
  Range and North Slope through the weekend, with isolated snow
  showers and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.

- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast into early next week,
  strongest further west out towards Point Hope and the Lisburne
  Peninsula where gusts up to 45 mph will continue.

- Highs in the single and double digits below zero in the Brooks
  Range and Arctic Plains to single digits above and below zero
  along the coast. Lows in the single and double digits below
  zero, with coldest areas bottoming out at around 20 to 30 below.

- Temperatures trend warmer starting Monday into Tuesday as
  isolated to scattered snow chances return.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Monday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across
Northern Alaska, with areas of low stratus, isolated snow
showers, and patchy fog as a cold and dry airmass remains in
place. Moisture from a low in the Gulf of Alaska will continue to
lift north along the Alcan Border tonight into Sunday, leading to
light accumulations around Tok and Northway up to Eagle. There is
an area of high pressure over the Chukchi Sea and an area of low
pressure over Beaufort Sea, with associated troughing extending
over northeastern portions of the state. This setup will continue
to support gusty winds across the NW Arctic Coast, strongest
around Point Hope and the Lisburne Peninsula where gusts up to 45
mph are expected through the weekend. Another weak low tracking SW
from the NE Arctic Coast Saturday into Sunday will help reinforce
broad NE flow over much of our region, helping to keep a cold
airmass in place across the Interior and North Slope, in addition
to supporting isolated snow showers along the Arctic Coast.

Looking farther south and west, a broad areas of low pressure
around 965 mb has moved into the Southern Bering Sea today as a
ridge of high pressure amplifies over the NE Pacific into the Gulf
of Alaska. This will setup the necessary steering flow for a
strengthening low pressure system to work in between these
features tonight into Sunday, as a 960 mb low lift north through
the Eastern Aleutians into the Eastern Bering Sea. Confidence has
increased on the track and strength of this low, favoring a track
north just off the West Coast for Monday into Tuesday. As this
system progresses north, winds will ramp up across the West Coast,
strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence Island where wind gusts up
to 50 mph are expected. Winds elsewhere along the West Coast will
see gusts peak around 20-40 mph. Widespread snow chances will
build into Southwest Alaska and shift northeast Sunday into Sunday
night, with an overlap of snow and winds leading to localized
blizzard conditions at times.

Winter Storm Watches are now in effect starting late Sunday into
Monday for the Yukon Delta, Norton Sound Coastline, and Seward
Peninsula for gusty winds and snow. Total snow accumulations are
expected to be around 2-5", locally higher around 4-8" across the
southern Seward Peninsula. These watches are likely to be upgraded
to a mix of Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories
tomorrow to capture where impacts are highest. A few caveats to
visibility reductions will be the intrusion of warmer air in out
of the south, but we felt for today it was best to issue the
watches out of precaution as the latest model runs have trended
wetter and a bit colder overall. The placement of the low and
nearby features will ultimately determine what pressure gradient
we are able to get in addition to precipitation rate, and we will
continue to evaluate these trends over the coming days. There are
no coastal concerns with this system, as it will be fairly fast
moving.

Across the Interior, a persistent cold and dry airmass will
remain in place through the rest of the weekend, with coldest
areas seeing lows drop to around 20 to 30 below zero with highs in
the double digits below zero. Low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska
and Southcentral late Sunday into Monday will help to create a
moderate gradient across the Interior Sunday night into Monday
This setup will remain favorable for sub-advisory gap winds
through Windy Pass and Isabel Pass with gusts up to 50 mph late
Sunday into Monday. Snow will build into the Interior southwest to
northeast Monday into Tuesday, with more moderate snowfall
amounts expected across the Western Interior and Alaska Range with
lighter amounts further east out along the Alcan Border.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Tuesday through next Saturday.
As a 970 mb low tracks north along the West Coast and into the
Chukchi Sea Tuesday into Wednesday, widespread snow chances will
continue across much of Northern Alaska with an emphasis on the
West Coast and Western Interior. Strongest winds will remain
confined to the West Coast and higher elevations of the Brooks
Range and Alaska Range, where gusty winds and snow could lead to
areas of blowing and drifting snow, potentially significantly
reducing visibility at times with localized blizzard conditions.

For midweek, we are tracking several more low pressure systems
heading towards Alaska through the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska,
with the overall tracks continuing to favor Southern and Western
Alaska. These systems will continue to reinforce snow chances
through the extended forecast as well as keeping temperatures
trending warmer given cloud cover and broad S/SW flow aloft. Given
that warmer airmass, rain and snow may be possible especially
further southwest along the West Coast. At this time, the Central
and Eastern Interior look to remain drier overall, with better
snow chances building in later in the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ822-823-827.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ824>826.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805-806-811-812-852-856>858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-851-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

MacKay