802
FXAK69 PAFG 072307
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
307 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2024

SYNOPSIS...A cold front, extending south from a low pressure
system over northeast Russia, has brought widespread rain and Gale
force winds to the southern West Coast. Elevated water levels are
also expected. Areas farther north on the coast and into the
Interior will begin to experience increased wind and rain over the
coming hours as the system moves to the east. In northeast Alaska,
a weak cold front is on its way out of the state. In the coming
hours and days, southern warm air advection will begin to lift
temperatures across the North Slope. Another front will impact the
West Coast on Monday.

DISCUSSION...

Analysis...Currently, a weak west to east moving cold front is
working it`s way over and out of the northeastern corner of the
state. The front is located near an upper trough which extends
south along the Eastern Interior. Showers in the area are being
enhanced by an embedded shortwave and will continue until crossing
the Alcan Border tonight. Over the Central Interior, an upper
ridge is clearing high level clouds, but satellite imagery shows
much of the interior remains under a slowly dissipating stratus
layer. Over the West Coast, widespread rain continues to move
ashore with south to southwest Gale force winds ahead of an
approaching north to south oriented cold front. The front will
weaken as it works east over the state. The same parent low
pressure system over northeastern Russia will swing another
weaker front towards the West Coast early Monday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Currently, most of the Central
Interior has seen the rain from the passing upper trough come to
an end as the showers continue east towards the White and
Fortymile Mountains to the east. Later tonight into tomorrow
(Sunday) morning, rain from the associated cold front, currently
over the West Coast, will begin moving over the Interior. Some
heavier showers should be expected from this system on Sunday. As
most of the system moves over the state by late Sunday night,
only lingering isolated to scattered showers will remain over the
interior. Another round of showers from another front from the
same parent circulation is expected early next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...A north to south oriented cold
front has brought widespread rain and gale force south to
southwest winds to the West Coast. Sea levels look to rise 1 to 2
feet above the normal high tide line for areas south of the
Bering Strait. Areas north of the Strait can expect water to rise
1 to 2.5 feet above normal high tide. Water levels will remain
elevated through Tuesday as another system arrives. Today`s front
will push inland to the Western Interior later this evening into
the day tomorrow.

North Slope and Brooks Range...A weak cold front is over the
eastern North Slope and will soon exit the state. Behind the
front, a sharp warm up will commence as flow turns southerly.
Expect highs mostly in the 50s Sunday through Tuesday before
temperatures begin cooling again on Wednesday. Areas west of
Utqiagvik and the Brooks Range can expect scattered showers
tonight into the day tomorrow before another round moisture
arrives early next week with the next front.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Another low pressure
system will likely impact the West Coast on Monday. This will keep
water levels slightly elevated through Tuesday, though water
levels look to generally be lower than what is expected from the
storm today and tomorrow.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...Overall guidance is in
generally good agreement that above normal temperatures are expected
early next week across Northern Alaska before cooling back to near
normal later in the week. The Interior is expected to begin the work
week near normal, but cool to below normal by the end of the week.
Above normal precipitation is also expected for most of Northern
Alaska. The general troughing pattern will likely keep scattered
shower activity in the Interior through the middle of next week.


HYDROLOGY...A front currently moving through the West Coast and
towards the Western Interior is expected to produce a quarter to
half of an inch of rainfall from the Bering Strait south to the
Y-K Delta.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-816-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-811-817-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$