Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 240928

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
128 AM AKDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...Cooler start to the week for the Eastern and
Central Interior with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Limited
chances for thunderstorms through Tuesday for the Western and
Central Interior. A front moving into the lower Yukon Delta will
bring increased chances for rain for the West Coast and
thunderstorms for the Western Interior late Tuesday and Wednesday.
with limited chances for thunderstorms through Wednesday

Aloft at 500 mb...A 552 DM low currently positioned near Point
Hope continues to slowly push south and east weakening the 570 DM
ridge currently positioned over the Eastern Interior. The upper
level low near Point Hope will continue to move south and be
absorbed with a deep upper level low moving north into the
Southern Bering Sea Tuesday. The upper level ridge over the
Eastern Interior will continue to flatten out and push south as
another strong upper level low near Banks Island pushes south over
the northern Yukon Tuesday and Wednesday. Generally weak westerly
flow is expected over the interior through Wednesday.
Precipitable Water remains high over the interior with 1.12 inches
noted on the 00z Fairbanks sounding. Any thunderstorms that do
develop over the eastern interior will be slow moving and be
capable of dropping heavy rain.

Models...The 24/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z
surface analysis and verified well against the 06z surface
analysis. Model spread from run to run and between model families
is limited with very reasonable agreement in the short range
and is still very good through the end of the week.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy along the Northwest and
Central coast with rain showers. Mostly cloudy in the plains and
along the Eastern coast. Isolated thunderstorms are expected again
this evening in the Southeast Brooks Range. A weather front will
move to the Eastern Arctic Coast today with some cooler air
pushing south to the Brooks Range. High pressure building over
the area from the northwest.

West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly to Partly cloudy today
and Tuesday with limited chances of thunderstorms. Expect a few
areas of smoke with ongoing fires. Increased chances of rain on
the West Coast and thunderstorms in Western Interior late Tuesday
and Wednesday as a front moves northeast out of the Bering Sea
into the lower Yukon Delta.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly cloudy becoming partly
cloudy Monday and Tuesday over the Central interior with
isolated thunderstorms limited to areas south and east of
Fairbanks. Areas of smoke with generally light winds from the west
at 10 mph.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


.FIRE WEATHER...Slightly cooler temperatures to start the week,
but it still looks pretty dry with showers and limited chance of
wetting rain. Expect decreased thunderstorm and rain shower
activity to continue into Wednesday before a better chance of
wetting rain moves over the Western Interior on Wednesday.
Temperatures cooler the next few days with temperatures in the low
to mid 70s over much of the interior. Relative Humidity values
generally above 30 percent the next couple days, then falling into
the 20 to 30 percent range late in the week. Good overnight
recovery will continue.


.HYDROLOGY...The recent rainfall in the Upper Chena and Upper
Chatanika Basins has produced an increase in the water levels on
the Upper Chena of about a foot but has already begun to drop.
The Chatanika is up about 6 inches but has also begun to fall.
Expect both rivers to remain below bankfull. The melting level
currently around 9000 feet will drop slightly to around 8000 feet
over the next few days and will do little to reduce the robust
snow melt and glacier melt at higher elevations. The melt off will
continue to make its way into the mainstem rivers and will take a
couple days to level off before decreasing.




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