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000
FXAK69 PAFG 261048
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
248 AM AKDT Tue Sep 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather continues and today will be similar to yesterday as
a dome of high pressure remains over Northern Alaska. Plenty of
sunshine will be over the Interior with clouds along the West
Coast along with some rain showers. For the North Slope, a weak
disturbance will scrape by the Eastern Brooks Range/North Slope
around Kaktovik with isolated rain and snow showers. A few snow
showers will also be around the Northwestern Arctic Coast but
nothing significant to note. Otherwise, as the high pressure
exits, we will look towards the Coast Wednesday night and Thursday
as a relatively weak low meanders into Southwest Alaska with light
to moderate rainfall and breezy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Model Discussion...
The latest suite of models have initialized fairly well and are in
good agreement through the end of the short term forecast period.
It helps that there isn`t too much going on weather-wise for them
to disagree on. The next system to impact Northern Alaska is a
West Coast storm that comes in from the Bering Sea and we have
high confidence that it will bring light to moderate rain Thursday
as nearly a 1002 mb low. Going farther into the forecast, they do
differ a bit on the evolution of an Arctic Trough and Gulf of
Alaska low this weekend, but we will expand on this in the
Extended Forecast section.

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A 546 decameter high over Northern Alaska is exiting to the
northeast.A weak 540 mb low is developing over Eagle and moving
north along the AlCan Border. Tomorrow, a weak trough develops in
the Western Interior and moves through the Central Interior
Wednesday night and Eastern Interior on Thursday. As this moves
through, a 537 decameter low moves into Southwest Alaska on
Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Another beautiful day to enjoy today across the Interior.
Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal with plenty of
sunshine. A few high clouds begin to move in overnight and we`ll
have high clouds on Wednesday. Wednesday night a trough of cold
air moves overhead and it will be chilly with widespread teens
and 20s expected. Some of the typically colder spots in the
Interior may even get into the single digits by Thursday morning.
A few flurries are possible as this trough moves through but
most areas remain dry. Thursday will be a cold day compared to
climatological norms as our highs will be struggling to get out of
the 30s in many spots north and east of Fairbanks while highs in
Fairbanks most likely get near 40. A few flurries are possible
during the day on Thursday as well, especially north and east of
Fairbanks. There is no risk for accumulations.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rain showers continue today though they will be more isolated in
nature. Tomorrow, weak ridging moves into the area and it will
turn out to be a very nice day overall. However, getting towards 5
to 8 PM, rain moves into Hooper Bay and Emmonak then it traverses
northeast with steady rain expected most of the day on Thursday from
the Nulato Hills south and west. Numerous showers will be around
for the rest of the West Coast through the day on Thursday.
Thursday evening and overnight, the steadiest rain will become
scattered rain showers. These will lessen in coverage through
Friday with only isolated showers expected for the area. Rainfall
totals look to be around 0.25 - 0.50" from the Seward Peninsula
south with slightly higher amounts in the Nulato Hills.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Cool but tranquil weather persists today for most of the North
Slope and Brooks Range. Isolated rain and snow showers are
possible along the Northwest Arctic Coast. Then tomorrow, a weak
disturbance that is riding up the AlCan will bring isolated rain
and snow showers to the Eastern Brooks Range/North Slope mainly
from Kaktovik south and east. This will not be anything
significant, just nuisance showers. Otherwise, isolated showers
still remain in place along the Northwest Arctic Coast Wednesday
and Thursday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The main story in the extended as mentioned yesterday will be the
phasing, or non-phasing of an upper level trough and Gulf of
Alaska low. That will be the question this weekend as it is still
not entirely clear and uncertainty is high. An Arctic trough will
be digging south into Alaska bringing snow for the Northwest
Arctic Coast which may be enough for light accumulations Friday
into Saturday. Then on Sunday it moves into the Central Interior
and tries to interact with a Gulf of Alaska low. This interaction
could bring the precipitation shield north into the Central and
Eastern Interior with light snow possible Sunday into Monday. At
this point, the trough looks strong enough to bring at least some
light snow or flurries through most of the Interior even without
the interaction with the low. However, if they phase together, it
could mean the potential for accumulating snow, especially in the
Eastern Interior. This is something we will be monitoring very
closely in the coming days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Increasing southerly flow
ahead of approaching low pressure may lead to elevated surf along
south- and south-west facing beaches on the West Coast Wednesday
into Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns. Rivers remain steady or falling.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Bianco