Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 282304
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
304 PM AKDT Sat May 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions over the Interior will become even warmer
next week. The North Slope will have periods of rain, snow and fog
through Sun, with flurries and fog and near normal temperatures
for Mon into the middle of next week. The West Coast is warmer
than normal with fog, that will be dense in areas of onshore flow
between midnight and noon. Those conditions should continue
through next week, but with fog thinning over the Southern Seward
Peninsula tonight and Sun as winds there turn offshore.

Expect no convection over the Interior today, isolated thunderstorms
over the Interior SE of Circle to Denali Sun, isolated thunderstorms
over the Alaska Range to McGrath to Yukon Delta on Mon, and over
the areas south of the Yukon River on Tue.

Aloft...
High pressure aloft over Western Alaska will build over Interior
Alaska through Mon, then persist through much of next week.
Moderate to strong westerly flow aloft over the North Slope will
persist into early next week and allow a series of short waves
troughs to moves east across the North Slope. These features will
serve to keep the Interior very warm dry, while the North Slope
had periods of rain/snow fog with near normal temps, and the West
Coast and Bering Sea have stratus and fog with above normal
temperatures.

A weak short wave trough that moves over NW Alaska tonight and
will move east over the ridge and across the Eastern Interior Sun
PM. This will bring mainly high clouds, but could bring isolated
thunderstorms to the SE Interior on Sun.

A second weak short wave will move north to the Yukon Delta east
across the Alaska range on Mon, and then to the Yukon Delta to Ft
Yukon on Tue. This could cause increased instability and isolated
thunderstorms Mon and Tue along the trough.

Surface...
A 1012 mb low 70 NM north of Prudhoe Bay will move to ro 70 NM
north of Demarcation Point by 4am Sun, and then continue east.
A weather from stretching west from this low will move south over
the North Slope of Alaska Sun and remain there into Mon. This is
causing rain/snow from Deadhorse east that will continue into
tonight. Fog and drizzle west of Deadhorse will chance to fog and
flurries over most of the Arctic Coast by Sun AM. with fog and
flurries lasting into Mon.

High pressure over the Eastern Bering Sea and southern Chukchi Sea
will persist into Tue. This is causing onshore flow and fog over
most of the West Coast, and will result in dense fog from midnight
to noon over most of the West Coast. The exception is Northern
Norton Sound coast where winds are turning NW tonight and will
push fog offshore, which will expand to the Eastern Norton Sound
Coast on Sun.

A weak thermal low pressure trough from Ft Yukon to Denali to
Northway will persist through Sun night. This will result in local
winds gusting to 15-20 mph in the afternoon across the Eastern
Interior blowing into the trough.

By Mon afternoon the thermal trough will move to Anvik to
Minchumina to Chicken, then by Tue PM it will move to Anvik to
Circle to Dawson. This will serve as a focusing mechanism for
convection Mon and Tue and bring the possibility of PM
thunderstorms. Due to the lack of moisture and capping subsidence
inversion under the high aloft, expect any thunderstorms that do
form to be very isolated. The few thunderstorms that do form will
be of high consequence for fire weather due to the very warm and
dry environment they will occur in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z. Models show similar solution
aloft through Mon, with fair agreement through the middle of next
week.

850 MB temperatures over the Interior today will be 1-2C warmer
than than Fri, and remain the same into Sun, before warming
another 2C on Mon and remaining that warm into Tue.

With precipitation, models vary some on areal coverage of
convection over the Interior with better agreement over the North
Slope. Will use a blend of models for North Slope precip.
Convection should be limited due to the very dry airmass and the
capping ridge aloft. Expect no convection over the Interior today,
isolated thunderstorms over the Interior SE of Circle to Denali
Sun, isolated thunderstorms over the Alaska Range to McGrath to
Yukon Delta on Mon, and over the areas south of the Yukon River
on Tue.

At the surface at 18Z, models verify well on most features, but
are all 3-4 mb too weak on the low just north of Deadhorse. Will
use a blend of models for winds, but bump up winds over the Arctic
Coast this afternoon into tonight by 5kt to account for the deeper
than forecast low.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions over the Interior will become even warmer
next week. Expect highs 65 to 75 and Min RH 15-30% today and Sun.
Mon into Wed will see highs 70-80 with Min RH 20-30%. Expect winds
to remain less than 15 mph through Mon, but there will be local
gusts 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon and evenings.

Expect no convection over the Interior today, isolated thunderstorms
over the Interior SE of Circle to Denali Sun, isolated thunderstorms
over the Alaska Range to McGrath to Yukon Delta on Mon, and over
the areas south of the Yukon River on Tue. Expect any thunderstorms
that do form to be very isolated. The few thunderstorms that do
form will be of high consequence for fire weather due to the very
warm and dry environment they will occur in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Flood Advisory for the Innoko River near Shageluk is now in
effect until Monday morning due to continued flooding of low lying
areas, including some roadways.

Temperatures across the Interior will be very warm into next
week. This coupled with rising freezing levels, will accelerate
the high elevation snowmelt, especially across the Eastern
Interior. With most rivers and streams open, expect river levels
to remain elevated with rivers across the Eastern Interior likely
rising through the weekend. Elsewhere, rivers across the North
Slope are beginning to see water flowing and some break up of ice.

For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Advisory for AKZ215.

&&

$$

MAY 22


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