Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 022242
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
242 PM AKDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm activity will increase again this afternoon through
the overnight hours as the thermal trough redevelops in the
Central and Eastern Interior. Smoke will continue to affect
locations south of the Brooks Range with little relief in the
Interior today. Rain lingers in the southwest and Norton Sound
through the evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A 576 dam high is located over the Yukon Territories which is
keeping ridging in place for the Central and Eastern Interior,
and a 510 dam low is located near the pole in the High Arctic
waters. In the Western Bering Sea, there is a 539 dam low with a
560 dam low beginning to close off in southwest. Not much change
is expected with this set-up as models trend to move the ridge too
quickly in this pattern. A weak front is located on the West
Coast and thermal troughing will develop today from Northway to
the White Mountains and extend to the Western Brooks Range. This
axis continues tomorrow as well but begins to expand northward and
by Monday situate north and east of Fairbanks.

Model Discussion...
Models show similar solutions aloft
through Mon, with differences with short wave strength and
location developing Tue, with differences increasing through next
week. Will use a blend of models for features aloft including
temperatures and clouds.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Today will continue convective activity through the day with
strengthening thunderstorm activity starting in the late afternoon
and persisting overnight and into the early morning across the
area. Little precipitation and high-based storms are expected
with a increase in coverage and strength compared to yesterday’s
storms. The most active area is expected to be off the high
terrain in the Fortymile Country and White Mountains but anywhere
south of the Eastern Brooks Range and as far west as the Upper
Koyukuk Valley are in play through tomorrow. Temperatures expect
to remain in the 80s through the weekend, but could be moderated
by smoke. Cooler air from the southwest begins to move into the
Interior on Monday as temperatures lower a few degrees across much
of the area. RHs look to remain dry in the Yukon Flats, but there
will be an increase in moisture over the area, with Min RHs in
the 30s. Winds will be generally light, with proximity to
thunderstorms being the driver of any elevated winds.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Light rain will linger south of the Seward Peninsula through the
evening before dwindling out on Sunday. The thermal trough picks
up increasing strength into early next week so storms drifting
from the southeast are possible and increasing in the chances and
coverage. Today’s convective chances will be primarily from
Ambler to the Lake Minchumina east and then tomorrow and Monday
from the Western Brooks Range through the Nulato Hills east.
Sunday looks the best for thunderstorm development in the Western
Brooks Range and Western Interior with Monday pushing the
strongest convective signals into the Eastern Interior.
Temperatures continue to cool along the coast with temperatures in
the 60s on the West Coast and 70s in the Interior. By Monday,
most areas will be around 3 to 5 degrees cooler in the Western
Interior. Winds will be relatively light, outside of 15 to 20 mph
possible near the Kotzebue Sound on Monday. Min RHs will continue
to trend upward to the 40s in the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Today will be the peak of the recent seasonable warm temperatures
across the Arctic Coast and Brooks Range as temperatures begin to
trend cooler. Portions of the Eastern Brooks Range will hold onto
warmer temperatures longer, but Periods of fog overnight return to
the coast, east of Utqiagvik. Convective potential extends to the
Eastern Brooks Range through the early parts of next week but
Sunday does give a heightened chance for storms near the Western
Brooks Range as well. Winds pick up tonight through Sunday morning
to 12 to 18 mph, but otherwise remain light over the next few
days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Little change in the extended as models keep delaying the eastward
progress of the western trough inland, which also delays the
cooler and wetter southwest flow. ECMWF, Canadian, and GFS are in
good agreement keeping an Interior ridge aloft in place through
mid-week next week with a shift to stronger south flow aloft. This
should keep an active thunderstorm pattern over the Interior with
periodic chances for rain out west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for zone 218 for Sunday
afternoon and evening and for this afternoon and evening for zone
226. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for both this afternoon and
evening as well as Sunday afternoon and evening for zones 219,
220, 221, 222, 223 and 224. Hot, dry and smokey conditions over
the Interior will persist into Monday with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon/evenings. Moisture will increase
from the south over the next several days and cause thunderstorms
to increase in number and coverage this afternoon and evening as
well as Sunday and Monday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are
expected to go through the night again tonight and Sunday night.
Expect 2000-3000 lightning strokes today, and 5000-10,000 strokes
Sun and Mon. Thunderstorms will be high based in the 6000 to 8000
feet range and will not produce much rain this afternoon and
evening. Thunderstorms will be lower based and produce more rain
on Sunday afternoon and evening. Red Flag Warnings may need to be
extended into Monday with slow moving area of instability.

RH Min will be in the 20-30 percent range across the Eastern
Interior this afternoon and evening, while the Central Interior
minimum relative humidity will drop into the lower 30s. The
Western Interior will see minimum relative humidity values in the
30s to lower 40s. Low end Chance of Wetting Rain remains tonight
in the lower YK Delta.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Glacial rivers draining the Alaska Range such as the Tanana,
Chisana and Nabesna Rivers will run high and near bankfull due to
the high freezing levels for the next week. On the North Slope,
Judy and Fish Creek west of Nuiqsut have an increased risk of
flooding, and see the current Special Weather Statement for full
details. No other hydro concerns other than the possibility of
very small scale localized flooding under thunderstorms Sun and
Mon.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-
AKZ226.

Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ227.
&&

$$

074 JUL 22


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