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000
FXAK69 PAFG 301519
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
619 AM AKST Thu Nov 30 2023


.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate southerly chinook winds will develop across the Alaska
Range today and continue into this evening then decrease late
tonight. This will cause temperatures across most of Northern
Alaska to remain well above normal through Fri. The Interior will
cool closer to normal over the weekend, while the West Coast and
Arctic Coast will remain above normal into early next week due to
the open water in those areas.

Southeast winds gusting 45 to 55 mph at Delta Junction will
continue into this evening. South winds gusting to 55 mph through
Alaska Range Passes will develop later this morning and continue
into this evening.

East winds gusting 30 to 40 mph over Dalton Highway Summits
between the Yukon River and Coldfoot will continue into this
afternoon and cause reduced visibility in blowing snow. These
winds will decrease this evening and visibility will improve.

Snow will occur over the South Slopes of Alaska Range today and
tonight with 1-2 inches accumulation. A slight chance of snow over
Central Interior and Western Alaska will occur today. Tonight and
Friday will see a chance to likely snow over the Western and
Central Interior and over Western North Slope and West Coast. Snow
will diminish from the east Fri night and Sat. Expect several
inches of snow over the Western Interior and West Coast from
tonight into Fri, with another several inches possible over the
far western Interior and West Coast Fri night into Sat.

Fog over much of the West Coast of Alaska will thin today, while
fog along the Arctic Coast will persist into Fri. There is

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over Eastern
Russia and the Bering Sea with a ridge over Western Alaska.
A series of strong short wave troughs will rotate around the long
wave trough and move north across Alaska. These short waves will
gradually erode the long wave ridge and pull the long wave trough
east over AK this weekend. This will cause cooling this weekend
over Northern AK.

A short wave trough that lies from Kotzebue to Utqiagvik will
move northeast over the CHukchi Sea this afternoon. This is
causing light snow over NW AK that will diminish this afternoon.

A second and stronger short wave trough that lies from the YK
Delta to the Northern Gulf of AK coast will move to the YK Delta
to Fairbanks to Eagle by 3pm Sun, to the YK Delta to Umiat to Old
Crow by 3am Fri, and to Nome to Utqiagvik to Old Crow by 3pm Fri.
This will cause moderate chinook winds across the Alaska Range to
peak out this afternoon as it moves north of the Range, then
decrease tonight as the trough moves north. Snow will develop
this afternoon north of this trough over the Northern and West
Interior and then over the West Coast and Western North Slope
tonight and Fri.

Surface...
A 1000 mb low 100 NM northeast of Utqiagvik will deepen to 993 mb
by 3am Fri, then move to 200 NM west of Utqiagvik as a 995 mb low
by 3am Sat. A weather front stretching from this low east to
Demarcation Point will move north of the eastern Arctic Coast of
Alaska today, remain north of the Coast through Fri, then move
back south along the eastern Arctic Coast on Fri night and Sat.
These features are causing areas of freezing fog over the Arctic
Coast that will improve over the Eastern Arctic Coast this
afternoon as winds turn southerly, while fog will continue over
the Western Arctic Coast into Fri. Fog will move back over the
Eastern Arctic Fri night as the front moves back south over the
coast.

A low pressure trough stretching from the Yukon Delta west will
dissipate today. This is causing isolated to scattered snow
showers from the YK Delta west today.

A 980 mb low low in the Northern Gulf of Alaska will move to the
Yukon Delta as a 988 mb low by 3am Fri, and to 100 NM southwest of
Nome as a 988 mb low by 3am Sat.

A strong weather front over the southern Bering Sea will weaken
slowly through Sat. A low in the Gulf of Alaska will move to 100
NM southeast of McGrath as a 984 mb low by 3pm Thu, to the Yukon
Delta as a 988 mb low by 3am Fri, over Norton Sound as a 988 mb
low by 3pm Fri, and to 100 NM southwest of Nome as a 988 mb low by
3am Sat. An occluded front stretching east from this low will
move to McGrath to Livengood to Eagle by 3pm Thu, to the Yukon
Delta to Bettles to Eagle by 3am Fri, then dissipate over the West
Coast of Alaska on Fri. This will cause strong east winds to
continue today along the Tanana River from Delta Junction west and
over the Dalton highway summits from the Yukon River to Coldfoot.
The winds will decrease south of the front tonight. Snow will
occur along and NW of the front this afternoon into Fri, with
snow diminishing southwest of the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 00Z, models all initialize 10-20 meters too low on 500 mb
heights over Yakutat and Whitehorse, but initialize well in other
locations. Models show similar solutions aloft through 3am Fri,
then start to see differences in strength and speed of short
waves. Favor a blend of models aloft through 3am Fri, then favor a
blend of the ECMWF and Canadian models aloft for Fri into the
weekend as those models show similar solutions aloft into the
weekend and they are middle of the road solution on track and
timing of features aloft compared to the NAM and GFS.

Moderate southerly chinook winds develop across the Alaska Range
today and continue into this evening then decrease late tonight.
This is shown by most models where 700 mb winds are increasing
from the south to 40kt this morning and continue into this evening
then decrease. This is causing lee side troughing now along with
east winds gusting to 45 mph at Delta Junction, which will
increase to 55 mph today, and will cause south winds gusting to 55
mph through Alaska Range Passes to develop late this morning and
continue into this evening.

With precip models show similar patterns through 3am Fri, then
start to see differences in areal coverage after that. All models
indicate a slight chance of snow over Western Alaska today, then
a chance to likely snow over the Western and Central Interior,
Western North Slope and West Coast tonight into Fri, with precip
diminishing form the east Fri night and Sat. Will use a blend of
models for precipitation areal coverage and amounts with the
following highlights: Snow over south slope of Alaska Range today
and tonight with 1-2 inches accumulation. A slight chance of snow
over Central Interior and Western Alaska today, then a chance to
likely snow over the Western and Central Interior along with
Western North Slope and West Coast tonight into Fri, with precip
diminishing from the east Fri night and Sat. Expect several inches
of snow over the Western Interior and West Coast from tonight into
Fri, with another several inches possible Fri night into Sat.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802-805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-807-811-857-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-810-811-856-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-850-851-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

JB