Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 201257
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
457 AM AKDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The low in Bristol Bay continues to remain in place and anchor the
weather pattern for much of the forecast area. A short wave ridge
is building in from the Yukon and will influence weather over the
Eastern Interior and inland areas of the North Slope the next
couple of days. This high will remain short lived as low pressure
to the southwest pushes the high back into Canada on Friday. So
the nice summer weather over the Interior will only last for a
couple days. Models are in generally good agreement on the
overall pattern mentioned above. However, they differ in placement
and amounts of precip with the next weather front anticipated to
move in on Friday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A ridge of high pressure extending from the Yukon will move over
the interior today and tomorrow. This will warm temperatures into
the 70s in the Tanana and Upper Yukon Valleys. Warmer temperatures
will cause a thermal trough to develop in the afternoons, so
isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected again tomorrow, with an area
of enhanced convicts activity along the Canadian Border.
Scattered storms are expected in this area. Conditions will also
be warm and dry across the interior, which is detailed in the fire
weather section.

This ridge and associated warm weather will be short lived. On
Friday the ridge gives way to cooler and more moist air entering
from the southwest. This will bring the possibility of precipitation
and end the warm dry conditions we will experience the next couple
of days. Some areas of heavier precipitation may develop in the
fortymile country, but models are not consistent on placement of
precipitation at this time. So, we will need to dig into this a
bit more.


West Coast and Western Interior...
The stationary low parked in Bristol Bay will continue to send
moisture into the Y-K Delta and lower Yukon River, with weather
fronts also reaching up to the southern Seward Peninsula. The
next round of moisture will move through tonight into tomorrow.
Heaviest precipitation should be in the Y-K Delta, which is
expected to see up to 0.5 inches of rain. Weather will remain
unsettled throughout the West Coast as the low continues to sit
and spin in Bristol Bay.


North Slope...
Temperatures are expected to warm over inland areas with the
ridge of high pressure moving over the Brooks Range the next
couple of days. As with the interior, the ridge will exit Friday,
which will bring more rainfall to the Brooks Range. More low level
stratus and fog is expected along the coast. Fog may be dense at
times.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warmer temperatures and lower minimum relative humidity values are
expected across much the Interior for today and tomorrow. Minimum
relative humidity values in the Tanana Valley as well as the
upper Yukon Valley will drop below 25 percent with temperatures
rising into the mid to upper 70s. In most of the aforementioned
area the sustained winds will not be high enough to reach Red Flag
Criteria. The main exception to this will be in the vicinity of
Delta Junction. Southerly winds will increase on Thursday through
the pass south of Delta Junction Delta Junction Thursday
afternoon and evening. This area will bear watching for Red Flag
conditions. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across much of
the Interior today. Isolated thunderstorms are expected for much
of the Interior again on Thursday with scattered thunderstorms
expected along the Canadian Border.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Warm temperatures aloft over the Brooks Range combined with heavy
rainfall over the last several days and additional rainfall
expected over the next couple days will produce significant rises
on rivers draining the Brooks Range and in particular the Sag
river. Current forecasts keep the Sag river below action stage,
but we will need to monitor closely as additional rain falls over
the Brooks Range. Recent heavy rainfall will keep many of the
smaller creeks and streams in the West Coast and western Interior
running high over the next few days.


&&


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

BJB JUN 18



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