041
FXAK69 PAFG 082351
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
351 PM AKDT Sun Sep 8 2024

SYNOPSIS...Southern winds will help keep the North Slope warmer
than normal with highs in the 50s for the first half of the week.
Drier conditions are expected east of Utqiagvik with light rain
possible west of the city. Temperatures will remain closer to
normal across the Interior with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s
through Wednesday. On the West Coast, water levels will remain
elevated up to 2 feet above the normal high tide line behind
yesterday`s front and through Tuesday as another similar but
weaker system arrives Monday.

DISCUSSION...

Analysis...A large low pressure system, with a 992 mb surface
low, is going to sit nearly stationary over Wrangel Island. This
system brought the cold front to the West Coast yesterday which
brought rain to the Interior today. It`s working on pushing the
axis of an upper ridge, over eastern Alaska, farther to the east
out of Alaska, and in doing this, the West Coast and North Slope
will hold on to southwest and south winds, respectively. Rain
currently over the Central Interior will slowly get pushed farther
eastward towards the Alcan Border over the next few days. The
same parent system will push another relatively weak cold front to
the West Coast early Monday, resulting precipitation will
continue farther in the state towards midweek. Southern winds
between a surface low in the the Gulf of Alaska and a surface
ridge of high pressure over the Panhandle will increase the gap
wind risk on Tuesday. However, the latest model runs have reduced
the strength of these winds.

Central and Eastern Interior...Radar and ground obs are showing
widespread light showers stretching north from the Alaska Range
north over the Tanana Valley, and on over the White Mountains.
This precipitation is expected to continue to slowly move east
through the valley through midweek, but coverage will likely
become more isolated. Gap winds in the Alaska Range are expected
to increase on Tuesday from winds wrapping around a low pressure
system in the Gulf and up and over a high in the Copper Basin.

West Coast and Western Interior...The system that brought
yesterday`s cold front to the West Coast is now headed towards
Wrangel Island from east Siberia. Along the West Coast, winds off
of the eastern Bering Sea are expected to peak in the 30 to 35
mph range near the Bering Strait. Water levels will remain
elevated through Tuesday as another system arrives on Monday.
The Western Interior can expect showers to continue to decrease
has we head into the overnight hours. Tomorrow will be drier
before the next wave off the Bering brings more rain Monday night
through Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Southerly winds will bring warmer
temperatures to the North Slope through around midweek, resulting
in highs mostly in the 50s on Monday and Tuesday. Warm air
advection will ease on Wednesday as winds shift, causing
temperatures to trend back towards normal. Areas west of
Utqiagvik can expect to see additional round of precipitation
from a nearly stationary system near Wrangel Island. Areas
farther east remain drier.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Another low pressure
system will likely impact the West Coast on Monday. This will keep
water levels slightly elevated through Tuesday, though water
levels look to generally be lower than what is expected from the
storm today and tomorrow.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 Through 7...Models are in above
average agreement for the extended forecast period and indicate
troughing and showers continuing across the area through Thursday,
then a weak and transient upper level ridge builds toward the end
of the week. Models are in good agreement that a strong front
bringing wind and rain will arrive at the West Coast on Friday
night into the day on Saturday. Winds look to be mostly offshore
at this time, so not expecting much of a coastal flood threat from
this one. Temperatures across the area will gradually trend
cooler.

HYDROLOGY...No concerns.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-817-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$