-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
708
FXAK67 PAJK 201833
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1033 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Aviation Discussion for 18z TAF Issuance.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Mostly clear skies across the interior with widespread dry
  conditions Monday.

- A front will bring a few showers for Yakutat and possibly into
  northern panhandle Monday night into Tuesday.

- Increasing forecast confidence of another round of warm
  temperatures through midweek, especially across the southern
  panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/ A fairly quiet short range
forecast with a few exceptions. Currently most areas of the
panhandle are seeing clear skies due to just enough offshore flow
to keep the marine layer clouds at bay for now. Not everywhere is
clear however. Some marine layer clouds have invaded the Cross
Sound and Western Icy Strait area up to Lemesurier Island, and the
NE gulf coast is under cloud cover from around the Alsek River
westward.

It is the low level flow and cloud cover that will have the most
effect on the short range forecast for the next few days. For most
of Monday, ridging over the eastern gulf will be just sharp
enough that the low level flow on the east side of it will display
a slight offshore component over the panhandle. This will lead to
continued mostly clear skies and warm temperatures for most
areas. Hyder is still under a heat advisory for high temperatures
reaching into the low 80s this afternoon, and several areas in the
south will be getting into the mid to high 70s. Sea breezes will
be common this afternoon with some being as strong as 15 to 20 kt.
Areas W of Cape Fairweather will be the exception with cloud
cover and cooler temps likely continuing as they are west of the
ridge axis and thus have more onshore flow.

This overall pattern will gradually change into Tuesday as a weak
front pushes in from the W and the gulf ridge flattens. The
offshore flow will be switching to onshore (mainly over the
northern half of the panhandle) allowing the marine layer clouds
to push further inland late Monday night and Tuesday night. In
addition the weak front will be bringing the possibility of light
rain to Yakutat Monday night, and a slight chance of rain for the
northern half Tuesday. This front will also bring some breezy
conditions to the outer coast and northern inner channels in it`s
wake Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The southern half of
the panhandle meanwhile will be far enough east that low level
flow will largely stay slightly offshore enough that clouds are
not expected to invade the inner channels through at least Tuesday
night (though the western coasts of Prince of Wales and Baranof
islands will likely still see marine layer clouds reappear Monday
night and Tuesday night). This will lead to continued warm and dry
weather for most of the south, though Tuesday is not expected to
be as warm as Monday due to more a more marine influenced air mass
moving in.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday brings us
back to our regularly scheduled programing with rain chances
looking to increase late in the evening or overnight across much
of the northern panhandle. A surface low looks to spin up coming
off the Aleutians and travel along the north gulf coast through
the beginning of the week, bringing this rain we are expecting.
Then, general onshore flow is expected to bring wetter conditions,
working their way southward, through the end of the week. Winds
are expected to be the most impactful with Skagway, currently
expected to reach 15-20mph S, but otherwise most other communities
can expect lighter winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
/through Tuesday morning/...High pressure over the
region continues to provide fairly benign and clear flying
conditions over the majority of the panhandle Monday. The
exceptions are Cross Sound into Icy Strait where a marine layer
between 1500 and 2000 ft has managed to stagnate, and a mid level
cloud deck beginning to impact the northeastern outer coast ahead
of a slow moving front. The marine layer along Cross Sound should
thin out a bit through by the afternoon, but is expected to
reform overnight and spread again to Gustavus by Tuesday morning.
Along the rest of the inner channels, clear skies will produce
localized sea breezes, but otherwise For the northeastern coast
including Yakutat, high end MVFR conditions should continue
through the day until a front moves in bringing rain showers and
potential for lowered CIGs. Some brief patchy fog is possible
along PoW once more Tuesday morning, along with the marine layer
pushing in to the outer coast there before retreating once more
later in the morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Outer Waters: The sharp ridge along the southeast alaska coastline
continues through the next few days, with northwesterly flow along
the coastline and southerly to southeasterly flow along the
northern gulf. An incoming upper level trough is bringing just
enough lift for low clouds and fog in the gulf waters, with
multiple buoys currently fully saturated. After todays trough
moves over the panhandle, the surface ridge is expected to
strengthen further, letting winds exceed 20 knots almost anywhere
along the coastline and being seas greater than 6 ft.

Inner Waters: The upper level trough moving over the panhandle
will move into Canada during the afternoon timeframe. With upper
level dynamics, leeside and thermal troughing, along with a
building ridge in the eastern gulf, westerly to northwesterly channels
are expected to pick late this morning and through the evening.
Icy Strait is the big highlight, with winds exceeding 25 knots
from the west. As the ridge in the eastern gulf builds on Tuesday,
inner channels winds south of Icy Strait are expected to increase
up to 20-25 knots in exposed channels, such as Stephens Passage
and Clarence Strait.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening
     for AKZ331.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-641>644-661>664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...NC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau