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562
FXAK67 PAJK 072336
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
Issued by National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 PM AKDT Sat Sep 7 2024

.SHORT TERM...

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Overall quiet weather for the short term. Shower activity across
the panhandle diminishes as the residual low pressure system in
the AK Gulf continues to weaken and track to the SE. High pressure
ridge over the western gulf moves east and builds through Sunday.
Already seeing some breaks in the cloud deck over the northern and
central areas. Models still keep some shower activity, however
slight through Sunday night. Watching for another night of
radiation fog development across much of the region. Decreasing
winds through the evening and into Sunday as pressure gradient
relaxes. As the ridge tracks in winds shifting to the N-NW with
lee side winds over the eastern gulf picking up from light to 10
to 15 kt. Models remain in good agreement with little change to
inherited forecast.

.LONG TERM...

Rather benign weather pattern for the early to mid week forecast
with a broad ridge setup aloft over SE AK. Next system moves
across the northern gulf Tuesday before taking a sharp turn south
before diminishing Tuesday night. An associated frontal band will
extend northeastward towards the panhandle, but model to model
runs indicate this band will dissipate before hitting the
coastline. Further inland, the more notable weather aspect will be
a return to cloudier weather Monday night into Tuesday morning.
As the system moves southward, there will be greater chances to
see the sun, particularly on the northern part of the panhandle.
Some fog chances overnight Tuesday is certainly possible where
winds are slight and skies are clear.

The bigger story is Thursday. While details are still being worked
out, the active pattern returns with a robust system out in the
Bering Sea helping to direct a plume of moisture towards the
panhandle Wednesday night and into Thursday. Accompanying this
moisture is a developing system in the northern gulf, bringing
increased winds and moderate to heavy rainfall for the panhandle.
Run to run trends seem to indicate that the strength of this
system is increasing, so will keep an eye on any developments as
the system gets closer in time. What can be said about this system
is that there will likely be a barrier jet that forms, bringing
near gale to gale conditions along the NE gulf coast and possibly
fresh to strong breezes in the inner channels.

.AVIATION...

Predominate VFR conditions through 00-06z with CIGS AoB 8000ft
with underlying FEW to SCT deck around 2000 to 5000ft. Anticipate
winds 10kts or less, outside PAGY and PAHN which will see an
isolated gust up to 20kts. Main aviation concern through tonight
will be FG development across the panhandle under light winds and
saturated low levels. Anticipating redevelopment of FG formation
across the panhandle by 09z, lingering with VCFG through 18z
Sunday. Highest confidence in fog development along and southeast
of a line from PASI to PAPG. LLWS is not expected through TAF
period.
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.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

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