Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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000 FXAK67 PAJK 250504 CCA AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 251 PM AKDT Sun Sep 24 2023 .SHORT TERM...Frontal band that moves over the AK Panhandle through the day finishes crossing over the NE Gulf Coast overnight while pulling to the west. Rain diminishes with some fog developing overnight and into the early morning. Northerly winds over N-S oriented channels increase as a strong low that as off the Washington State coast moves northward while weakening increase the pressure gradient. As this low moves in and stalls off the Haida Gwaii coast SE Gulf winds pick up to gale force with more rain moving in over the southern panhandle along with increasing overland and inner channel winds. Off shore flow over the north central areas will limit rainfall early Monday. Warm air advection will behind the fronts will increase temps for Monday. Forecast has remained consistent and new model runs indicated only minor differences. .LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/...Ensemble guidance continues to show the low off of Haida Gwaii start to track north after stalling briefly on Monday, weakening as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska. While slight uncertainty remains with regards for an exact track and how fast the low weakens, there is good agreement that the southern panhandle will see increased winds and rain chances with this system by Tuesday morning. Winds along the southern inner channels and outer coast will respond as the low moves northward through the day. Farther north, winds will increase as well but not as strong as what is expected for the southern panhandle. As mentioned in the short term, some gale force winds are expected when the low is off of Haida Gwaii, but these should weaken to small craft as the system pushes further northward. The best chances of rain continue to remain along the southern and central panhandle with this system while the NE gulf coast and northern panhandle have lower chances of seeing rain until late Tuesday into Wednesday. As of this forecast, the low is then expected to weaken and briefly stall a second time off of the central gulf coast before slowly diminishing as it pushes eastward late Wednesday into Thursday. The rate at which this system weakens and dissipates is still uncertain, though continued rain chances are expected for the central and parts of the southern panhandle through Thursday morning. Heading into the weekend, conditions continue to look typical of fall for SE Alaska. Temperatures will continue to remain mild to cool while rain will be on and off across the panhandle with Friday being the best chance for a break. At this time though, models continue to show no consistent signal for significant weather for SE Alaska in the mid and long term period. && .AVIATION...
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Expect flight conditions to be primarily VFR or a MVFR condition this evening across the panhandle. An advancing trough over the northern panhandle is causing some light rain in that area, while the main frontal band rotating about the low south of the gulf brings rain and wind through the southern and central panhandle through the evening and overnight. Expecting to see clearing sky conditions, behind the main front. This may lead to patchy fog from the south central to north central panhandle overnight into tomorrow morning. In areas that develop the patchy fog morning flight conditions could be as low as IFR. Low level winds with the second front may also result in some turbulence near terrain or LLWS for Prince of Wales Island and the southern inner channels this evening and early Monday morning
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&& .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661-662. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-033-036-642>644-651-663- 664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...PRB LONG TERM....STJ AVIATION...Bezenek Visit us at is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.