National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXAK67 PAJK 010025
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
325 PM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/...The surface low currently
near Yakutat will dissipate later tonight bringing an end to the
strong winds across the Northern Panhandle. The active pattern
will continue though as a second low forms tomorrow in a similar
location, thus helping to continue the current conditions. The
front associated with this low will move into the panhandle on
Monday afternoon. This will moderate temperatures into the
evening hours, but still expect the transition from rain to snow
to be delayed until Tuesday morning. The winter storm warning for
the Klondike Highway remains in effect until 11 pm tonight.

Precip remains in the forecast through Tuesday with the
possibility of breaks in the clouds early tomorrow morning,
similar to what some areas saw today. Snow totals will be
variable, ranging from a trace to as much as 5 inches. These
totals will need to be monitored, as additional QPF could see some
areas yield higher amounts. Currently anticipate the highest
totals near Yakutat, Petersburg, and higher elevations including
the highways.

Southerly gales over the Gulf will calm down later tonight, but
will pick up again to a similar force by Monday afternoon. Small
craft advisories will take place in the northern inner channels
specifically over Lynn Canal, Northern Chatham, Stephens Passage,
and Cross Sound.

Continued to adjust QPF based on GFS/NAM with some additional
changes made to account for orographic shadowing in certain areas.
Timing of temperatures was adjusted to accompany the system on
Monday. Overall forecast confidence is average with lower
confidence on snow/rain transitions.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday night/...The active weather
pattern continues, though a chance for some drier weather does
emerge towards the end of the week.

Much of the week`s weather will be centered around a broad trough
and its corresponding surface reflection in the Gulf. A series of
impulses moving around this system will continue to deliver
moisture and precipitation to the panhandle. Much of the area will
see rain during the daytime hours with snow mixing back in as
temperatures settle overnight. Some guidance is suggesting that a
particularly strong impulse will impact the area during the
Thursday-Friday timeframe, but agreement on timing and location
remains poor.

As the trough and its corresponding surface low slowly weaken
through the latter half of the week, some chance of drying for
parts of the area is present Friday through Sunday. However
guidance, both operation and ensemble, remain in disagreement and
confidence remains low.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ018-019-025.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022-023.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-032-042-043-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ033>035-041-051-053.

&&

$$

KRT/GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau