Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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000 FXAK67 PAJK 091437 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 637 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021 .SHORT TERM...
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/Through Monday night/...This Mother`s Day forecast is not a lot to write home about for Southeast Alaska. Cloudy skies and widespread light rain showers will prevail early today, with improving conditions by this evening. Temps will top off in the upper 40s or lower 50s - another day with below normal daytime highs. Most of Southeast Alaska will dry out overnight with breaks in the clouds likely and overnight lows getting down into the upper 30s. Unfortunately, the rain will return on Monday as the next front sweeps in from the west and spreads north. Sorry about that... The next front will bring in high end small craft winds over the eastern Gulf, but no substantial response is expected over the inner channels through this short range forecast period. those winds will diminish Monday night and the front weakens, ending with a weak barrier jet west of Icy Bay. Few changes to the existing short term forecast: Inner channel winds were increased 10 to 15 kts in some locations as the front presses inland. Also, cloud cover was decreased for the overnight period. Forecast confidence is average. .LONG TERM.../ Tuesday to Saturday as of 10 pm Saturday / The overall trend has not altered significantly from the Friday evening thinking. A weak, confused zonal-like flow will result in a light onshore flow from Tuesday onward with continued showers until the weekend. The one main difference in the models this evening is the deeper trough headed towards the Pacific Northwest Friday is not as pronounced, with a smaller wave headed towards the panhandle mainly. A weak ridge moving across the gulf ahead of low moves across the gulf towards the panhandle for Saturday and Sunday. The associated surface feature looks to be impacting the panhandle area Saturday with likely showers persisting into the start of the following weak across the gulf. Ensemble means are widely disparate. Therefore, not expecting large shifts away from the present temperature profile over SEAK, although PoPs may lessen Friday and into very early Saturday, with potential for breaks in the overcast or near overcast skies. Any breaks during the day would likely lead to spike up in the temperatures. Forecast confidence in the long range is average.
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PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043-051-052.
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