National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011148
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
648 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide farther out to sea today. Meanwhile,
low pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley later today and
tonight, bringing a chance for rain into the local area.
Another chance for rain is expected later Saturday into Sunday,
as a weak area of low pressure slowly moves through the region.
Mainly dry weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EST Friday...

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered well off the
Mid Atlc coast. Meanwhile, sfc low pressure was centered over
western Missouri. The sky was clear across the area with temps
ranging from the upper 20s to the upper 30s.

The sfc high will slide farther out to sea today. Meanwhile, the
low pressure area will track through the Ohio Valley later today
and tonight. This will result in a warm front lifting toward or
into the area this aftn and tonight. Southerly sfc flow will
bring enough low level moisture up into and across the region,
and combined with decent lift, will result in at least chance
PoPs for light rain from this aftn into tonight. QPF amts
expected to be .10 inch or less.

Highs today will range from the lower 50s NW, to the lower 60s
SE. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s extrm NW, to the
upper 50s over extrm SE VA and NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EST Friday...

Better chances for a little more substantial rain will occur
Sat aftn through Sun morning, as a srn stream low pressure area
will track from the Gulf coast states NE and across the Mid Atlc
region. Thus, have increased PoPs over the entire region during
this time period. Low pressure will push out to sea during Sun
followed by a cold frontal passage Sun evening into Sun night.
Milder temps are expected both Sat and Sun, despite the rain
(esply Sat). Highs will range through the 60s both days. Lows
will range through the 50s Sat night, and through the 40s to
around 50 Sun night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 AM EST Friday...

Isolated showers will be possible Mon aftn into Mon evening due
to a shortwave trough swinging into/across the area. Dry weather
expected for Tue/Tue night, as high pressure builds across the
region. Another shortwave trough will swing across the area
during Wed, and could produce a few showers. Then, high pressure
will build into and over the region for late Wed night through
Thu. Cooler than normal temps are expected for Wed and Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 645 AM EST Friday...

VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites from
this morning into at least early this aftn, although clouds
will increase and lower. Sub-VFR CIGs may try to sneak in just
west of RIC ~22z-00z this evening. A few light rain showers will
be possible beginning later this aftn, with better chances by
late this aftn/evening across western and northern portions of
the area. Winds will be southerly generally 5-10 kt from early
this morning into early Sat morning.

Outlook: MVFR to IFR CIGs will be likely overnight tonight into
Sat morning as well as continued chances for light rain. CIGs
briefly improve Sat late morning-aftn (though may linger around
MVFR), before another round of MVFR to IFR CIGs (as well as
additional rain chances) arrive for Sat evening through Sun
morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EST Friday...

Latest analysis reveals 1024+mb sfc high pressure offshore of the
mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. Winds are S-SW 10-15 kt and
will likely increase slightly up to ~15 kt in the lower James and
Ches Bay by late today as a warm front lifts across the waters late
this afternoon into this evening. Occasional gusts to 20 knots will
be possible over the lower James and lower Bay, but expect
predominate winds to remain below SCA thresholds, so no plans for
SCA flags at this time. Seas currently 2-3 ft, with waves 1-2 ft,
which should prevail today through the upcoming weekend.

The front will weaken and become stalled over the waters through
much of the weekend. Winds still look to turn onshore north of the
boundary over the northern ocean waters briefly late Sat night into
Sunday morning, but with the front becoming weaker with time, will
continue to show winds veering around to the S-SW even across the
north by Sun aftn into Sun night. Increasing SE swell at 7-8
seconds will bump seas up to 3-4 ft Sun night into Monday, but
offshore flow should keep highest seas offshore, and closer to
2-3 ft nearshore.

Winds veer around to the W-NW late Monday and Monday night, as
the front gets pushed farther offshore, and high pressure
builds back across the region. Another quick moving system
approaches from the NW for the middle of next week, backing
winds to the W-SW Tue afternoon and night. Next potential
period of SCA comes behind the trailing cold front dropping
across the area Wed/Wed night, with winds turning NNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...AM/TMG
LONG TERM...AM/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...CP/MAM