Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280124 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 924 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves across the area overnight. High pressure settles into the region this weekend with dry weather returning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 910 PM EDT Friday... Per current radar trends and coord with SPC...went ahead and cancelled the watch at 9 PM. Although high res data suggests convection slowly moves ese overnight ahead/along the cold front, expect this to be sub-severe. Could still see lclly hvy downpours. Pcpn tapers off west-east late. Lows upr 50s nw to upr 60s se. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... The low pressure system will be north of the area and moving across NY and New England on Saturday. The upper low pivots E across the area in the morning and pushes off to the NE by aftn. The low levels dry out (dew pts falling into the 50s) so even w/ the cold pool aloft, chances for showers are minimal, though some SCT aftn clouds are likely. Deep mixing and a westerly flow through much of the day should yield high temperatures into the upper 70s/low 80s N and low-mid 80s S. Mostly clear/sunny Sat night/Sunday as high pressure settles over the region and slides offshore Sun aftn. Lows Sat night 55-60F inland and 60-65 near the coast. Highs Sun will rebound to the mid to upper 80s well inland, with upper 70s to lower 80s closer to the coast where an onshore flow will prevail. The warming trend continues into Memorial Day as the upper ridge amplifies across the east coast with sfc high pressure offshore. Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F (with upper 70s to mid 80s near the coast). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... The medium range period will feature summerlike WX as the upper ridge builds aloft from the lower MS Valley to the NE CONUS/mid Atlantic region through Wednesday. As the upper ridge builds Tue- Wed, a (weak) upper trough begins to develop to the south from Florida to the Bahamas. Lows Mon night in the mid 60s to around 70F. Tue-Wed generally look mostly sunny/dry and hot with highs into the lower-mid 90s inland and in the mid/upper 80s to lower 90s near the coast. Lows Tue night/Wed night in the mid 60s to lower 70s. By Thu, the upper ridge over the local area is forecast to weaken/flatten as a cold front approaches from the NW. Still very warm/hot with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s (potentially mid 90s some areas if the front were to slow down). Will have ~20% PoPs moving in from the NW late in the day. Humidity levels look moderate Tue-Wed during the aftn with dew pts in the 60s so at this point, heat indices should range from 95 to 100F. A bit cooler w/ chc for showers/tstms by Thu night/Fri with the next cold front. Highs Fri in the 80s. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 740 PM EDT Friday... Convection over the Piedmont ahead of the advancing cold front will slowly weaken over the next few hrs. However, enuf coverage on radar to have TSTM at RIC thru 02Z. Otw, not enuf confidence any convection makes it to the coast tonite, so will just carry VCSH for now. MVFR CIGS at RIC with VFR at the coast attm with the SCT-BKN MVFR deck over the area thru late tonite. VFR conditions return Sat as high pres builds into the area. S-SW winds aob 10 kts ahead of the front become W behind it Sat. Outlook: High pressure results in VFR conditions through Mon. && .MARINE...
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As of 920 PM EDT Friday... Cold front continues to move into the area this evening. Southeasterly gusts to 20-25kt persist across portions of the water, with seas of 4-6 ft. An isolated shower or storm may be possible through the early overnight hours. SCAs remain in effect for the northern Bay, Currituck Sound, and mouth of the Bay until midnight tonight. The coastal waters will keep their SCAs until 7am Saturday due to lingering higher seas. Seas and waves should subside through the day on Saturday, and winds will generally be W/SW at 5-10kt. High pressure then builds over the region for Sunday and into early next week resulting in variable winds of 10kt or less.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ630-633- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...CP/LKB LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...MPR MARINE...JKP/TMG

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