Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250654 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 254 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure dominates thru Sunday. A weak cold front drops across the area Sunday night into Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 720 PM EDT Friday... Latest MSAS has a weak/dry frontal bndry drifting south from srn Va with high pressure located over the Gt lakes and across the deep south. Fair to pt cldy/dry overnight. Lows upr 50s-mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 205 PM EDT Friday... Short-lived reprieve from anomalously warm temperatures for Saturday, as high pressure passes across the region and off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with low-level flow veering around to the E-SE /SE-S flow farther inland/. Forecast highs Saturday range from the low/mid 70s E (upper 60s immediate MD Atlantic coast) to the low/mid 80s farther inland. Dry Saturday aftn, with soundings appearing well-capped for much of Saturday over the area. By Saturday evening, there is a slight chc of showers/tstms drifting off the higher terrain into the Piedmont, so will include a slight chc PoP for an isolated shower between 22z/6p and 04z/Midnight west of I-95. Sunday will likely be the hottest day of the Spring thus far. Surface high pressure slides well off the Southeast coast, as low pressure moves into the Ern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the SE upper ridge will slide into position across the southeast coast up into the Mid-Atlantic region. This will result in W-SW low- level flow locking, which will help boost high temperatures into the low/mid 90s inland, with upper 80s/low 90s over the Ern Shore, and even mid 80s at the immediate Atlantic coast. Low-levels should remain well mixed, and therefore while a hot day is expected, heat indices are expected to remain near the air temperature. Overnight low temperatures won`t provide much relief, with early morning lows Sunday morning range from the mid 60s to around 70F, and in the upper 60s to mid 70s Monday morning. Another weak front associated with low pressure moving by well to our north will drop across the area Sun night. However, once again, PW values would indicate areal coverage to be quite low. Will maintain a slight to low end chance PoP over northern tier of counties for some evening/late night showers Sun night. Modestly "cooler" and a little less humid for Memorial Day on Monday, as winds briefly veer around to the NNE. Remaining very warm and mainly dry. Highs in the 80s to low 90s inland. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Friday... Summerlike/temperatures remaining above normal through at least next Thursday. An upper level anticyclone remains centered along the Gulf Coast Monday night before becoming centered over FL as upper ridging amplifies over the western Atlantic by midweek. A potent shortwave then tracks through the nrn Great Lakes late next week as an upper low remains centered INVOF the Hudson Bay. Our region will be under the influence of W-NW flow aloft thru Tuesday, then SW flow aloft Wed-Thu. Staying dry through at least Wed night as we will be under the influence of SSW flow at the sfc and rising H5 heights. Wednesday also looks to be the hottest day next week as H85 temps rise to 20-22C with deep-layered SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front is progged to cross the region from late Thu-Thu night as the aforementioned upper shortwave tracks through the nrn Great Lakes. Isolated-scattered showers/tstms will accompany the FROPA Thu-Thu night. Have added a slight chc-chc of showers/tstms from 12z Thu-12z Fri to account for this (PoPs no higher than 30% for now). Lows through the period in the 60s to low 70s, except some mid 70s possible Wed night. Highs Tue from the mid-upper 80s over the Ern Shore to the low-mid 90s inland. Forecast highs on Wed are in the upper 80s to low 90s on the Ern Shore to the mid 90s inland. Highs still in the upper 80s on the Ern Shore to the low-mid 90s inland on Thu. Slightly cooler on Fri with highs in the 80s area-wide. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru this aftn, as high pressure over the NE U.S. shifts ESE and off the coast. Light E winds will become SE or S and increase to around 10 kt this aftn. Shortwave energy in westerly flow aloft will help to trigger isolated to sctd showers or tstms that will slide acrs the area this evening into early Sun morning. For now, have no mention of pcpn in any of the TAFs since PoP is 15-30%. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected today into Sun. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions expected thru the holiday weekend. But, there is a low prob of convection at the terminals Sun aftn thru Mon. && .MARINE... As of 340 PM EDT Friday... Departing upper trough over New England is giving way to building heights aloft as strong upper ridging over the Southeast expands northeastward. A weak cold front moved south through the area this morning with generally north and northwest winds 10-15 knots, a few gusts to ~20 knots at elevated sites this afternoon. Waves are generally 1-2 ft while seas are 2-3 ft. Winds become east tonight and then southeast 10-15 knots by Saturday afternoon as high pressure centered to our north moves offshore. SSE winds increase to 10-20 knots Saturday evening as the pressure gradient temporarily steepens. Winds become southwest and eventually westerly with time into Sunday afternoon as high pressure sinks southward off the Carolina coast. A weak front is forecast to drop southeast through the region, turning winds to the NW-N Sunday night. Strong ridge aloft will be in control through at least the first half of next week. Waves will generally be in the 1-2 ft range with seas 2-4 ft. && .CLIMATE... A record high of 96 was set at Elizabeth City (ECG) earlier today (5/24), breaking the old record of 95 set in 2011. RER has been sent. * Avg Date of 1st 90F (1981-2010 Climatology): * Site Avg 2019 Value * Richmond: May 13th (Sun 5/19) * Norfolk: May 16th (Sun 5/19) * Salisbury: May 27th (none so far) * Eliz City: May 18th (Sat 5/18) * Number of Days of 90F+ in May: * Site Avg Most * Richmond: 2 days 11 days (1962) * Norfolk: 2 days 13 days (1880) * Salisbury: 1 day 7 days (1991) * Eliz City: 2 days 9 days (1944 & 1941) && .EQUIPMENT... As of 245 AM EDT Saturday... KAKQ 88D radar is offline due to a transmitter error. Technicians are awaiting parts for needed repairs. No return to service time is available. See FTMAKQ for details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...TMG MARINE...LKB/RHR CLIMATE...AKQ EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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