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327
FXUS61 KAKQ 131738
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1238 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief warmup is expected this afternoon ahead of a dry cold
frontal passage. Very cold temperatures return behind the front
for the mid week period, with temperatures to quickly moderate
Friday through next weekend. Remaining dry this week, with our
next chance for precipitation holding off until next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1101 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

-Milder temperatures expected this afternoon, with highs in the
 40s to low 50s.

-A  dry cold front will push through from the west and move across
the area tonight.

The gradient across the region remains weak as a relatively benign
pressure pattern lingers in the area. Upper-level cloud cover is
slowly receding to the southeast, and clearing skies are moving in
its wake. With sunshine overtaking the local area, temperatures will
be able to rise into the mid to upper 40s, and even into the lower
50s in some area. Unfortunately, these milder temperatures will not
last long. A surface cold front will move from the west during the
day today and advance through our area tonight. With little
atmospheric moisture associated with this front, precipitation
chances will be near nil during its passage. Temperatures will
slowly drop overnight into the upper teens to the 20s behind the
front, but the coldest temperatures will not be realized until
tomorrow night, so Cold Weather Advisories are not on the table
yet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming breezy Tuesday, especially near the coast.

- Cold temperatures return Tuesday and especially Tuesday night
  with continued breezy conditions leading to wind chills in
  the single digits for most of the area.

Mostly sunny but turning colder Tuesday with high temps ranging from
the low 30s over the MD Eastern Shore to upper 30s and low 40s for
the rest of the area. Becoming breezy by early Tuesday afternoon
with wind chills in the 20s for most. Cold advection really kicks in
toward evening as a secondary cold front drops south with winds
continuing overnight. Low temps in the mid teens to low 20s will
combine with the winds resulting in apparent temperatures/wind
chills tanking into the single digits for most of the area. Cold
Weather Advisories are likely for most if not all of the FA Tuesday
night.

Blustery conditions continue on Wednesday with highs only in the
30s. Wind chills will struggle to get out of the 20s for inland
locations and likely stay in the teens for the Eastern Shore where
winds will be strongest. Winds do start to decrease Wednesday night
but low temps in the low/mid teens will likely result in another
period of Cold Weather Advisories across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Moderate temperatures return late this week through the weekend.

- Next chance for precipitation arrives Saturday into Sunday.

Behind the cold Arctic air that will advect into the region this
week, a low pressure system sets up in W Canada and gradually moves
eastward. Pushing the cold high pressure system offshore, temps will
gradually return to seasonal cool temps for late this week thru the
weekend. Thurs high temps will warm up to the lower 40s for the area
(with the MD Eastern Shore remaining cooler with highs in the upper
30s). Temps Fri warm up a little bit more to highs in the mid to
upper 40s, with the Easter Shore trailing in the lower 40s. Sat will
be the warmest day of the week in the upper 40s to lower 50s with
Sun as the second warmest, as high temps begin cooling down again.
Overnight lows follow a similar trend as the daily highs, gradually
warming up (from the mid 20s Thurs night) with Sat night being the
warmest night with highs in the lower 30s in the piedmont and
Eastern Shore to near 40F in SE VA/NE NC.

Precip chances return this upcoming weekend. A cold front will move
across the region this weekend before interacting with a weak
stationary front offshore the E Coast. Models continue to disagree
on timing so have included a slight chc of rain early Sat morning.
As the front crosses the area, PoPs increase to chc for the rest of
the day and depending on how quickly the cold front can overtake the
weak stationary front offshore, a chc of rain is possible Sun as
well. With warmer temps on Sat, wintry precip is not a major concern
at this time. Another push of cold Arctic air is possible for the
next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1238 PM EST Monday...

The upper cloud deck that was responsible for the mostly cloudy
skies this morning has since receded away from all terminals
aside from ECG. The back edge of these clouds will continue to
slide southeastwards, leading to SKC conditions at all terminals
this afternoon. A dry cold front will move through this evening
into tonight, but cloud cover will remain limited to SBY. VFR
conditions will prevail through tomorrow, with the CIGs at SBY
expected between 4-5 kft. Winds behind the front will veer to
the NW and gradually increase during the day tomorrow.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through late week. A dry cold front
brings another period with elevated W-NW winds late tonight through
Wednesday, with gusts generally highest across the MD eastern
shore..
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Watches remain in effect for the entire bay/coastal waters
  from Tue night into Wed morning behind an Arctic cold front.

- SCAs have been issued for the northern waters from early
  Tuesday morning through late Tuesday afternoon for NW winds
  behind the initial cold front.

Low pressure is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes early this
morning with a cold front extending south to KY/TN. Benign, sub-SCA
conditions continue to prevail with SSW winds around 10 kt and 2-3
ft seas/1-2 ft waves. Sub-SCA conditions continue through late this
evening. Then, the above mentioned cold front crosses the waters
tonight, allowing winds to become WNW. Wind speeds will increase to
~20 kt across the northern bay/coastal waters N of Parramore Island,
with ~15 kt winds expected farther south by early Tue AM. Went ahead
and issued SCAs for the bay N of Windmill Pt and ocean N of
Parramore starting at 06z Tue. WNW winds will average 15-25 kt
across the nrn bay/coastal waters on Tue, with winds just under SCA
criteria farther south (until the late aftn).

The secondary, stronger Arctic cold front crosses the waters Tuesday
evening. This will allow the winds to turn NW and rapidly increase
due to the strong CAA behind the front combined with a tightening
pressure gradient as low pressure deepens off the New England coast.
Still expect sustained winds to increase to near 30 kt (w/ frequent
gusts up to 40 kt) across the bay and ocean, with wind speeds around
25 kt (with 30-35 kt gusts) on the rivers/Currituck Sound Tuesday
night. Local wind probabilities show a 50-75% chance of 34+ kt gusts
across central and eastern portions of the bay, with lower probs on
the west side of the bay. Probs for gale gusts continue to be near
100% on the ocean. Could even see a few gusts to 45 kt north of
Windmill Pt/Parramore Island Tue night given the strong CAA combined
with 925mb winds potentially in the 40-45 kt range across the
northern waters. Local wind probs show a ~10% chc of 43+ kt gusts
across the northern waters Tuesday night. Boundary layer wind fields
are progged to be slightly lower across the southern waters but
still looking at high gale probs regardless. Also, will likely see
occasional gusts up to 45 kt at elevated sites even across the lower
bay and southern coastal waters. As such, have added a Gale Watch
for the NC coastal waters and will continue with the Gale Watches
for the rest of the ocean (and bay) from 00-12z Wednesday. In
addition to the strong winds Tuesday night, light freezing spray
is possible on the bay, rivers, and coastal waters N of Cape
Charles.

NW winds gradually subside through Thursday, although winds likely
remain above SCA thresholds through much of Wed night. The surface
ridge builds in across the waters by Thu allowing winds to shift to
W or SW.

Seas remain 2-3 ft today before building to 3 to 5 ft behind the
first front tonight (2 to 3 ft waves in the bay). Seas then build to
4 to 7 feet Tue night into Wed (4 to 5 feet waves in the bay).
Waves/seas should subside below SCA criteria by Thursday
morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630-
     650-652.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR/NB
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...ERI