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218
FXUS61 KAKQ 151909
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
309 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern continues through midweek with
scattered thunderstorms possible each day. Heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will be possible each day before the heat
rebuilds Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch in effect through midnight tonight for all
  central, eastern, and southeastern Virginia
  counties/independent cities along with southeast Maryland.

- Heavy rainfall will bring a flash flooding threat, especially
  for vulnerable areas that have received significant rain the
  past several days.

GOES Visible imagery is showing the thick cloud cover that was across
the area this morning starting to scatter out this afternoon. With
sunshine making its way to the surface, temperatures have been able
to reach the lower to mid 80s, with a few areas reaching the upper
80s. Temperatures should be able to climb into the upper 80s to near
90 degrees over the next few hours. With the addition of sunshine
and increasing temperatures, mesoanalysis reveals between 2000-2500
J/kg of MLCAPE across our area. PW values remain at 2"+, so the
stage is being set for another round of convection. KAKQ radar is
detecting a the development of showers and thunderstorms between
Mecklenburg and Sussex, which are right along a weak boundary. This
boundary will continue to support the continual development of
storms over the next few hours, so there are further flooding
concerns for this afternoon. The boundary extends just south of
where some of the heaviest rainfall fell last night and early this
morning, so we will continue to keep a close eye on any developing
storms in this area, as flash-flood guidance in these more
vulnerable areas is very low and it will not take much for further
flooding.

Additionally, a slow-moving shortwave trough is moving across the
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon which will provide some upper-level
support so storms can sustain themselves for longer periods of time.
With the steering flow negligible, the main threat will continue to
be flash-flooding. Slow moving to almost stationary storms will lead
to extended periods of heavy rainfall for localized areas across our
forecast area. The challenge is pinpointing exactly where any storm
development will take place heading into the evening. Due to the
increased vulnerability of areas between Farmville and Petersburg,
WPC has upgraded this small area to a Moderate ERO. WPC has a
majority of our forecast area in a Slight ERO today, and scattered
instances of flash-flooding are possible. A Marginal ERO is in place
across eastern North Carolina where isolated instances of flash-
flooding could occur.

As we lose daytime heating this evening into tonight, convection
should taper off but cannot rule out a few additional showers.
Pending the end time of convection, patchy fog could develop
overnight. Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 70s
tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled pattern continues into Wednesday with additional
  rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the
  area.

A similar pattern continues into Wednesday, with a bit more flow
aloft possible during the afternoon and evening as a shortwave in
the SW flow aloft potentially moves across the region. The frontal
boundary currently stalled to our NW will linger near the area and
could be the target of storms, so the areas of highest rain chances
will shift to the northern portions of our forecast area tomorrow.
No real changes in the airmass through Wednesday with PWATs
remaining around 2" so the threat for localized heavy rainfall and
gusty winds persists. Due to the low flash flood guidance across the
area, WPC has placed our area in a Marginal ERO to account for that
and the possibility of scattered coverage. Continued seasonally hot
and humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Warm and muggy
Wednesday night with lows in the 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories
  possible.

Looking ahead to late-week, upper ridging will build northwards into
the area through the weekend. Convective coverage will diminish to
isolated on Thursday. With the decreased cloud cover and storms
combined with the upper ridging, temperatures will be able to climb
into the lower to mid 90s Thursday through Sunday with the northern
part of the area possibly only reaching the upper 80s Friday through
Sunday. The shower coverage will be at its lowest on Thursday, and
with partly cloudy skies forecast in the eastern and dew points
creeping up into the mid-upper 70s, Heat Advisories may be required
for portions of the area. A front will approach the region Friday
and linger just north of the area through the weekend, which could
help initiate showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. With
shower coverage a little higher Friday through Sunday, Heat
Advisories may not be required, though we could see the SE/S portion
of our area reach the 105F+ criteria.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

Intermittent MVFR/IFR CIGS are currently ongoing at all terminals
this afternoon. Cloud cover is starting to dwindle from west to
east, so clouds should scatter out starting at RIC. Have included
TEMPOS to account for the low CIGS through 19Z. Meanwhile, showers
and thunderstorms have started to develop in the southern part of
the forecast area and are moving northeast. Convective coverage
should increase over the next few hours, and have included a PROB30
at ORF, PHF, and RIC. Did not have enough confidence in timing to
include a TEMPO for thunderstorms at any of these terminals, so
amendments will likely be necessary. Storms will decrease in
coverage overnight, though some fog and low stratus are possible at
the terminals early tomorrow morning. Winds outside of convection
will be southwest at 5-10 kts, possibly becoming light and variable
overnight.

Outlook: Additional scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected to recur Wed. Shower/storm coverage
is forecast to be a bit lower late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
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As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through Wednesday night, outside
of local influences from afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely Wednesday night into Thursday,
mainly across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River.

Strong high pressure well offshore continues to keep the prevailing
southerly flow across the local waters. Winds are mostly S-SE 5-10
kt with gusts from convection up to 15 kt. The pressure gradient
sharpens some into Wednesday as low pressure tracks well N of the
area through the Great Lakes region. 10-15 kt SW winds are expected
through Wednesday. Beginning Wednesday night, SCA conditions are
likely, as local probabilities now show 80-99% for 18 kt sustained
winds over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. Although, confidence
for headlines over the coastal waters is lower, as the probability
for sustained 25 kt is only up to 10%. Winds may remain elevated
through the day Thursday and begin to decrease Thursday night. Since
the timeframe is still a few periods out, opting to hold off on
headlines for now. Waves and seas remain benign around 1 ft and 2
ft, respectively. Although likely staying benign through the
forecast period, waves and seas will increase slightly Wednesday
night to 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft, respectively, before decreasing again
Thursday night.

There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches
tomorrow as seas will build throughout the day and the swell will
become more shore normal. A low risk remains for the southern
beaches.

Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue
much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief strong
wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy
rain.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
A Flood Warning is in effect for the Appomattox River above
Farmville through early tomorrow afternoon. Minor flooding is
forecast over the next few hours and is expected to crest just
after midnight tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB
LONG TERM...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...JKP/NB
MARINE...KMC/SW
HYDROLOGY...