Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 011148 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 648 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide farther out to sea today. Meanwhile, low pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight, bringing a chance for rain into the local area. Another chance for rain is expected later Saturday into Sunday, as a weak area of low pressure slowly moves through the region. Mainly dry weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 AM EST Friday... Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered well off the Mid Atlc coast. Meanwhile, sfc low pressure was centered over western Missouri. The sky was clear across the area with temps ranging from the upper 20s to the upper 30s. The sfc high will slide farther out to sea today. Meanwhile, the low pressure area will track through the Ohio Valley later today and tonight. This will result in a warm front lifting toward or into the area this aftn and tonight. Southerly sfc flow will bring enough low level moisture up into and across the region, and combined with decent lift, will result in at least chance PoPs for light rain from this aftn into tonight. QPF amts expected to be .10 inch or less. Highs today will range from the lower 50s NW, to the lower 60s SE. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s extrm NW, to the upper 50s over extrm SE VA and NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EST Friday... Better chances for a little more substantial rain will occur Sat aftn through Sun morning, as a srn stream low pressure area will track from the Gulf coast states NE and across the Mid Atlc region. Thus, have increased PoPs over the entire region during this time period. Low pressure will push out to sea during Sun followed by a cold frontal passage Sun evening into Sun night. Milder temps are expected both Sat and Sun, despite the rain (esply Sat). Highs will range through the 60s both days. Lows will range through the 50s Sat night, and through the 40s to around 50 Sun night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 355 AM EST Friday... Isolated showers will be possible Mon aftn into Mon evening due to a shortwave trough swinging into/across the area. Dry weather expected for Tue/Tue night, as high pressure builds across the region. Another shortwave trough will swing across the area during Wed, and could produce a few showers. Then, high pressure will build into and over the region for late Wed night through Thu. Cooler than normal temps are expected for Wed and Thu. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 645 AM EST Friday... VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites from this morning into at least early this aftn, although clouds will increase and lower. Sub-VFR CIGs may try to sneak in just west of RIC ~22z-00z this evening. A few light rain showers will be possible beginning later this aftn, with better chances by late this aftn/evening across western and northern portions of the area. Winds will be southerly generally 5-10 kt from early this morning into early Sat morning. Outlook: MVFR to IFR CIGs will be likely overnight tonight into Sat morning as well as continued chances for light rain. CIGs briefly improve Sat late morning-aftn (though may linger around MVFR), before another round of MVFR to IFR CIGs (as well as additional rain chances) arrive for Sat evening through Sun morning.
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&& .MARINE... As of 345 AM EST Friday... Latest analysis reveals 1024+mb sfc high pressure offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. Winds are S-SW 10-15 kt and will likely increase slightly up to ~15 kt in the lower James and Ches Bay by late today as a warm front lifts across the waters late this afternoon into this evening. Occasional gusts to 20 knots will be possible over the lower James and lower Bay, but expect predominate winds to remain below SCA thresholds, so no plans for SCA flags at this time. Seas currently 2-3 ft, with waves 1-2 ft, which should prevail today through the upcoming weekend. The front will weaken and become stalled over the waters through much of the weekend. Winds still look to turn onshore north of the boundary over the northern ocean waters briefly late Sat night into Sunday morning, but with the front becoming weaker with time, will continue to show winds veering around to the S-SW even across the north by Sun aftn into Sun night. Increasing SE swell at 7-8 seconds will bump seas up to 3-4 ft Sun night into Monday, but offshore flow should keep highest seas offshore, and closer to 2-3 ft nearshore. Winds veer around to the W-NW late Monday and Monday night, as the front gets pushed farther offshore, and high pressure builds back across the region. Another quick moving system approaches from the NW for the middle of next week, backing winds to the W-SW Tue afternoon and night. Next potential period of SCA comes behind the trailing cold front dropping across the area Wed/Wed night, with winds turning NNW. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...AM/TMG LONG TERM...AM/TMG AVIATION...TMG MARINE...CP/MAM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.