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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241040
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
640 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure overhead will drift offshore this afternoon. Low
pressure approaches from the west Monday, with a cold front
crossing the area Monday evening. Cool high pressure builds
across the area from the north on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM EDT Sunday...

Cool start to the day with clear skies and temperatures ranging
from the upper 20s/low 30s inland to low/mid 30s closer to the
water. Early morning surface analysis shows high pressure over
the region as northwesterly flow aloft transitions to
west/southwest by this afternoon. The surface high will migrate
offshore, allowing low level winds to become south and southwest
today. Expect a warm afternoon with highs in the upper 60s to
around 70, upper 50s and low 60s across the Eastern Shore.
Southerly flow will help to increase low level moisture levels
through the day, but with deep mixing again this afternoon
expect RH values to hover close to the 20% mark. Some mid and
high clouds come in from the west and northwest late this
afternoon ahead of low pressure taking shape across the central
CONUS. Overnight low temperatures will only bottom out in the
upper 40s and low 50s with cloud cover and low level moisture
levels continuing to increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

A cold front will cross the region from north to south on Monday
afternoon/evening, bringing the chance for showers and perhaps even
a rumble of thunder or two for far southern VA and northeast NC
where model soundings show some meager/modest instability.
Likely PoPs Monday afternoon will become relegated to southern
zones by Monday night where the front temporarily stalls as low
pressure traverses the boundary from west to east. Northerly
winds behind the front will remain elevated Monday night with
some areas near the Bay/rivers/coast seeing winds in excess of
20mph overnight with gusts approaching 30-35mph. Temperatures
will fall behind the front from north to south on Monday night
with overnight lows in the mid 30s N to low 40s S. Tuesday will
be dry for all but the far southeastern portion of the area
(early) with clearing skies and highs in the 40s and low 50s
with continued NE surface winds.

High pressure will build in from the north for Tuesday night and
Wednesday leading to dry conditions with continued troughing aloft
over the eastern half of the country. Overnight lows Tuesday night
will be cool with upper 20s N and mid to upper 30s across the south.
Temperatures rebound a bit for Wednesday afternoon with low to mid
50s expected across the region. Overnight lows will also tick upward
slightly, ranging from around 30 degrees NW to the low 40s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

The extended looks quiet as Canadian high pressure will build
across much of the eastern 1/3 of the country for the end of the
work week. Trough aloft will gradually shift offshore by the
end of the week as the next deep trough develops over the
plains. This will allow for broad southwesterly flow to develop
by Friday/Saturday yielding above normal temps in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Will keep a dry forecast through Saturday, although
it should be noted that the GFS is a little faster with the
system next weekend compared to the GEM and ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions expected today with high pressure in control.
Winds turn S/SW at 10 kt by this afternoon. Some mid and high
clouds will begin to come in across the north and west by late
afternoon. Clouds will thicken/lower from NW to SE tonight
ahead of approaching low pressure to the west.

Outlook:
Low pressure along with a strong trailing cold front approaches
from the NW Monday, and crosses the area Monday aftn and night,
with high pressure building in from the N Tuesday. There is a
likelihood for degraded flight conditions Monday night into the
day on Tuesday, with VFR returning later Tue through the middle
of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Latest obs and buoy reports reflect light W-SW flow across the
waters this morning, as ~1026mb SFC high pressure lingers over the
Mid-Atlantic/southeast coast this morning. Another quiet day
weatherwise on the waters today. Sfc high will slide offshore as sfc
winds back around to the S-SW, ahead of the next area of low
pressure and associated sfc front approaching from the west. Winds
will be lighter over the water surface due to poor mixing/cool water
temperatures. Winds become offshore W-SW once again tonight and
slowly creep up to ~15kt as gradient tightens once again late
tonight/early Monday morning.

Models now in good agreement with slightly quicker timing of next
system and the associated strong cold front. Front looks to drop
across the waters Monday afternoon into early evening, with winds
quickly turning to the NNE post-frontal. Strong north and northeast
flow will follow the frontal passage with SCAs likely late Monday
night and Tuesday. Sfc low looks to slow/linger offshore Tuesday
night and early Wednesday, thus likely lingering SCA into Wednesday,
at least over over the lower Bay and lower James...with winds across
northern waters slow to diminish into Wednesday. Over the coastal
waters, quickly increasing wind waves will build seas rapidly Monday
night and Tuesday, with persistent/strong NE winds building seas
considerably (5-7 feet N and 7-10 feet S) on Tuesday. Confidence
still increasing regarding potential for Gale conditions on Tuesday
from Parramore Island south, including the mouth of the Bay and
Currituck Sound. Even after potential Gales are no longer needed, an
extended period of SCA appears likely over the coastal waters for
much of the week ahead, given prolonged onshore flow through midweek.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...RHR/CP
MARINE...MAM