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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
924 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the area overnight. High pressure
settles into the region this weekend with dry weather returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 910 PM EDT Friday...

Per current radar trends and coord with SPC...went ahead and
cancelled the watch at 9 PM. Although high res data suggests
convection slowly moves ese overnight ahead/along the cold front,
expect this to be sub-severe. Could still see lclly hvy downpours.
Pcpn tapers off west-east late. Lows upr 50s nw to upr 60s se.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

The low pressure system will be north of the area and moving
across NY and New England on Saturday. The upper low pivots E
across the area in the morning and pushes off to the NE by aftn.
The low levels dry out (dew pts falling into the 50s) so even w/
the cold pool aloft, chances for showers are minimal, though
some SCT aftn clouds are likely. Deep mixing and a westerly flow
through much of the day should yield high temperatures into the
upper 70s/low 80s N and low-mid 80s S. Mostly clear/sunny Sat
night/Sunday as high pressure settles over the region and slides
offshore Sun aftn. Lows Sat night 55-60F inland and 60-65 near
the coast. Highs Sun will rebound to the mid to upper 80s well
inland, with upper 70s to lower 80s closer to the coast where
an onshore flow will prevail. The warming trend continues into
Memorial Day as the upper ridge amplifies across the east coast
with sfc high pressure offshore. Mostly sunny with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90F (with upper 70s to mid 80s near the
coast).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

The medium range period will feature summerlike WX as the upper
ridge builds aloft from the lower MS Valley to the NE CONUS/mid
Atlantic region through Wednesday. As the upper ridge builds
Tue- Wed, a (weak) upper trough begins to develop to the south
from Florida to the Bahamas. Lows Mon night in the mid 60s to
around 70F. Tue-Wed generally look mostly sunny/dry and hot with
highs into the lower-mid 90s inland and in the mid/upper 80s to
lower 90s near the coast. Lows Tue night/Wed night in the mid
60s to lower 70s. By Thu, the upper ridge over the local area is
forecast to weaken/flatten as a cold front approaches from the
NW. Still very warm/hot with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
(potentially mid 90s some areas if the front were to slow
down). Will have ~20% PoPs moving in from the NW late in the
day. Humidity levels look moderate Tue-Wed during the aftn with
dew pts in the 60s so at this point, heat indices should range
from 95 to 100F. A bit cooler w/ chc for showers/tstms by Thu
night/Fri with the next cold front. Highs Fri in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Friday...

Convection over the Piedmont ahead of the advancing cold front
will slowly weaken over the next few hrs. However, enuf coverage
on radar to have TSTM at RIC thru 02Z. Otw, not enuf confidence
any convection makes it to the coast tonite, so will just carry
VCSH for now. MVFR CIGS at RIC with VFR at the coast attm with
the SCT-BKN MVFR deck over the area thru late tonite. VFR conditions
return Sat as high pres builds into the area. S-SW winds aob 10 kts
ahead of the front become W behind it Sat.

Outlook:
High pressure results in VFR conditions through Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 920 PM EDT Friday...

Cold front continues to move into the area this evening.
Southeasterly gusts to 20-25kt persist across portions of the
water, with seas of 4-6 ft. An isolated shower or storm may be
possible through the early overnight hours. SCAs remain in
effect for the northern Bay, Currituck Sound, and mouth of the
Bay until midnight tonight. The coastal waters will keep their
SCAs until 7am Saturday due to lingering higher seas. Seas and
waves should subside through the day on Saturday, and winds will
generally be W/SW at 5-10kt. High pressure then builds over the
region for Sunday and into early next week resulting in
variable winds of 10kt or less.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ630-633-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...CP/LKB
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JKP/TMG