Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 131120 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 620 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail over the Mid-Atlantic region through today. Low pressure approaches from the southwest tonight into Friday, then tracks across the local area late Fri through Saturday. An upper level trough will remain over the area through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 250 AM EST Thursday... The local area will remain protected by sfc hi pres invof the Carolinas as weakening lo pres and its associated sfc trough pass by to the N. Meanwhile...trough aloft will begin to sharply amplify invof central/srn Plains w/ lo pres development occurring over NE TX. Another dry day is expected here...w/ temperatures nudged a little closer to normal. Will maintain readings remaining blo guidance over the lingering SN cover inland. Otherwise...BKN-OVC SC-AC nrn areas...CI across the S. Winds remain light and generally from the S. Highs in the m-u40s inland to the l-m50s far SE VA-NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 AM EST Thursday... Lo pres will be making steady progress E into the lower MS Valley tonight-Fri while hi pres shifts off the E coast. Models...w/ the GFS oddly leading the way showing in-situ CAD development Fri over interior VA as coastal front moves inland along the coastal Carolinas. Deeper layered moisture will be overspreading the FA on Fri...w/ highest PROB for RA mid-late morning W then increasing to the E through the afternoon. The increase in moisture will aid in snow melt well as keep temperatures blo guidance. Also...there will be a concern for FG w/ the warmer/moist air over the linger SN cover. Highs Lows tonight in the l-m30s...except near 40F right at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Fri in the l-m40s central/W to the m50s- around 60F E and SE. Widespread RA expected Fri night into early Sat as lo pres tracks into the TN Valley...pushing an occluded closer to the FA. RA from late Fri through Fri night may be heavy at times. Highest QPF right now is expected to be in SE VA-NE NC (away from the melting SN). Will be holding off on any Flood Watch...keeping mention of locally +RA and possible (urban and eventually minor river) flooding in HWO. Steady or rising temperatures Fri night w/ potential for areas of FG (both on land and water) as dew points rise. Models showing nebulous sfc pres pattern over the FA Sat...which suggests keeping conditions cloudy though PoPs likely lower. Highs in the u40s-l50s W to the l-m60s SE VA-NE NC. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 355 PM EST Wednesday... Still some model differences in the long term, but it is appearing likely that showers will linger into at least Sunday afternoon. Both 12Z ECM and Canadian have the upper level low pressure system moving further to the south (over North Carolina) while the 12Z GFS brings this low pressure further north over Virginia. FV3 also agrees with the ECM/Canadian on general low placement, but is drier compared to the other models. Have trended towards the more southern placement of the upper level low, thus have trended PoPs upward during the day Sunday. Both the ECM and Canadian show surface cyclogenesis off the NC coast late Sunday into Monday, allowing for the threat for rain to continue across the east into overnight Sunday. Through this period, the ECM is the most aggressive with QPF, showing an additional 1.00" plus of precipitation for portions of the region while the American models are much drier during this timeframe. Temperatures on Sunday will range from the upper 40s NW to the mid/upper 50s further SE. Low temperatures will range from the low/mid 30s to the lower 40s. By Monday afternoon, high pressure returns to the area bringing dry weather for the remainder of the long term period. Temperatures will trend cooler by Monday with high in the lower 50s on Monday and only mid to upper 40s for Tuesday. Overnight lows will range from the 30s to upper 20s. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 620 AM EST Thursday... VFR conditions through the 12Z TAF forecast period. BKN high level clouds mixed w/ SCT-BKN SC/AC. SSE winds aob 5 KTS. Lo pres approaches from the SW Fri and moves across the area Fri night into Sat bringing widespread RA and degraded flight conditions. An upper level trough lingers over the area into Sun. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Thursday... With sfc high pressure centered over New England w/ associated sfc ridging extending SSW to the NC/SC coast, winds are out of the S at 5-10 kt over the waters early this morning. Tranquil marine conditions will remain in place through late tonight as high pressure will continue to dominate our local weather. A slow moving area of low pressure is progged to impact the area late Fri through this weekend. E/SE winds increase to 10-15 kt during the day on Fri before briefly increasing to 15-20 kt Fri night (highest over the ocean) as an area of sfc low pressure develops across the Carolinas. Winds decrease and become more variable by Sat PM as the aforementioned sfc low moves offshore and a secondary sfc low (coupled w/ a closed upper low) moves over the mountains of VA/WV. Winds then become more N/NW by Sun aftn/evening (and increase to 15-20 kt as the secondary area of low pressure moves offshore. Winds turn more to the NW on Mon/Mon night and remain in the 15-20 kt range (with higher gusts) to start next week behind the departing system. Have advertised 5-7 ft seas starting Friday night with seas remaining elevated through the weekend and perhaps even Monday as NW winds increase. Therefore, SCAs will likely needed for the ocean zones starting Friday night. Winds remain below SCA levels for the most part this weekend. However, cannot rule out a brief period of ~20 kt gusts over the southern Chesapeake Bay (in addition to isolated gusts to 25 kt over the ocean) Fri night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...ALB/MPR MARINE...ERI is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.