Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181756 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 156 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure builds into the region from the north tonight through Thursday, and then settles over the region Friday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto is forecast to track well east of the Carolina coast today and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 155 PM EDT Wednesday... Latest analysis reveals ~1028mb high pressure centered over e QB/ northern New England this aftn, and is ridging swd into the VA Piedmont. Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto continues to track ENE about 200 mi west of Bermuda. Compressed pressure gradient between surface high building ridging south into the region, as Humberto continues to move away from the coast is resulting in some breezy conditions, especially along the coast. Coastal sites continue to gust to 25-30 mph, with occasional gusts to ~20 mph even inland. Mostly clear and cool tonight, with low temperatures ranging from the low 50s from the Piedmont to the MD Ern Shore to the upper 50s/around 60F over coastal SE VA/NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday... Surface high pressure continues to build swd along the coast tonight into Thursday, and builds overhead into Friday. Continued breezy Thursday although the wind should not be quite as high as Wednesday, as gradient slackens with Humberto farther offshore. Partly cloudy again along the coast with SCT late morning and aftn CU, and mostly sunny inland. Pleasant with high temperatures generally 70-75F, with upper 60s for the MD Atlantic coast. Clear sky, light wind will bring the coolest night of the period Thursday night. did nudge inherited minima down a degree or two per latest guidance, but no major changes necessary. Early morning lows Fri morning in the u40s/l50s inland...m/u 50s along the coast. High pressure will be over the SE coastal plain on Friday, bringing a modest warm-up. but still dry/pleasant. Highs in the mid to upper 70s, low to mid 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday... Temperatures will moderate back near to above normal over the weekend into early next week, as sfc high pressure slides offshore. Aloft, the region will remain on the periphery of an upper level ridge of high pressure, which will rebuild over the region from the southwest during the upcoming weekend. Above average temperatures likely prevail through this period with highs in the mid/upper 80s to around 90 degrees with early morning lows generally in the 60s area wide. Rain chances remain essentially nil through the first half of the period, and don`t go much higher even with the next front early next week. Aforementioned upper ridge holds strong over the southeast, and keeps moisture from next (weak) front...and any remnant moisture from TC Imelda...well north of the local area late Monday and Tuesday. Pops are no better than slight chance over far northern CWA Mon night and Tue...and silent (<14%) central and south through the period. Temperatures look to remain at or above climo normal next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday... Latest analysis reveals 1028+mb sfc high pressure centered over e QB/nrn New England at 18z, and was building into the Mid Atlantic as Hurricane Humberto tracked ENE well off the coast. Onshore flow continues ~12-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt for coastal terminals, and 8-12kt farther inland. SCT-BKN CU moving onshore from the Atlantic coast and will linger over terminals this aftn, gradually scouring out this evening. Mostly clear tonight with an 8-12kt NE wind along the coast, and light out of the NE farther inland. Outlook: Dry conditions are expected Thursday through Monday as high pressure slides across the region Thursday and Friday, and then offshore over the weekend into early next week. && .MARINE... As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday... Early this morning, Hurricane Humberto was continuing to move ENE several hundred miles off the SC coast while ~1026 mb high pressure was centered over far nrn New England/srn Quebec. Humberto is forecast to slowly transition into an extratropical cyclone during the next couple of days as it interacts with a frontal system. The pressure gradient between Humberto and the high is leading to NE winds of 15-20 kt N/20-25 kt S of the VA-NC border. Waves are ~2 ft across the northern Bay and 3-4 ft across the south. Seas have increased to 5-6 ft N/6-9 ft S. High pressure builds SSW toward central VA/NC today and tonight as Humberto continues to track to the ENE. Even though Humberto will continue to slowly move away from the Atlantic coast, the pressure gradient between Humberto and the aforementioned high will increase. Therefore, expect a slight uptick in winds before peaking during the 00z-06z (Thu) timeframe. Sustained winds will increase to 20-25 kt on the Ches Bay/23-27 kt on the ocean by 00z Thu. At least a few gusts to ~30 kt are likely on the Lower Ches Bay, srn coastal waters, and the Currituck Sound this aftn through the first part of tonight. Occasional gusts to ~20 kt are likely on the upper rivers later today-06z Thu. A few gusts to 25 kt are possible on the lower part of the York River, so went ahead and issued an SCA from 1 PM today-1 AM Thu. Not sure that 20 kt gusts will be frequent enough to warrant SCAs for the Rappahannock/Upper James, so left these two zones out of any headlines attm. Seas build to 7-8 ft N/8-10 ft S by late this evening. Will maintain the High Surf Advisory for VA Beach/Ern Currituck (through 7 PM Thu). SCAs remain in effect through 7 AM Thu for the Ches Bay, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound. The SCA for the ocean is now in effect through 7 AM Fri (due to very high confidence in seas remaining aoa 5 ft). On Thursday, the high is expected to build SSW toward the area, and Humberto will be far enough offshore to allow the pressure gradient to relax some. As a result, NE winds slowly diminish from early Thu AM through the day on Thu. The current forecast has wind gusts dropping below SCA thresholds by early Thu afternoon. The high is expected to settle into the region from Fri-Sat before moving to the SE of the area by Sun. Winds turn to the N then NW on Fri before becoming SW by early Sat AM. Sustained winds will remain aob 12 kt from Fri through the weekend. However, seas (and waves near the mouth of the Bay) will be slow to diminish. SCAs may need to be extended for the mouth of the Ches Bay through Fri AM/ocean through Sat (due to waves/seas) in future forecast packages. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 12 Noon EDT Wednesday... Added CF Advy for Hampton/Norfolk for Money Point/Sewells Pt reaching low-end minor thresholds with upcoming tide cycle this aftn. Additional nuisance to low minor levels possible late tonight and again tomorrow. As of 530 AM EDT Wednesday... Tidal anomalies have risen to 1-1.5 ft above normal in areas adjacent to the Ches Bay/rivers. Nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected in areas from the Lower MD Ern Shore to the srn shore of the Ches Bay/upper James River during today`s high tide. Therefore, Coastal Flood Statements/Advisories have been issued accordingly. With the persistent NE wind, tidal anomalies will remain elevated/slowly rise through Thursday. As a result, additional Statements/Advisories will be needed for both tonight and Thursday`s high tide cycles. At this time, it looks like any tidal flooding from today-Thu will mainly be minor. However, water levels may come very close to moderate flood thresholds at Bishop`s Head, Lewisetta, and Jamestown during the high tide cycle Thu aftn. Tidal anomalies slowly fall from Thu night-Fri as winds continue to diminish. However, lingering nuisance to (low-end) minor tidal flooding is possible through Fri. The current forecast keeps water levels just below minor flood thresholds along the Atlantic coast of MD, VA, and NC. However, there is a very slight chc that water levels exceed minor flood thresholds on the oceanside of the VA Ern Shore/NC during the higher astronomical tides today/Thu. A high rip current risk is forecast for today, and will likely continue into Thursday, as swell from Humberto propagates toward the coast. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075- 077-078-089-090-093-095>097-524-525. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>634- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ636. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...AJZ/MAM MARINE...ERI TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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