Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210903 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 403 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary moves slowly southward today then stalls over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states through Friday. Another low pressure system arrives by Saturday, with a cold frontal passage Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Thursday... A weak cold front will continue to slowly drop southward through the course of the day. With the front aligned nearly parallel to the upper level southwesterly flow, there will be little impetus to force the front southward today. Copious moisture will continue to stream into the region on southwesterly flow aloft leading to greater chances for precip today along and south of the boundary. Thus, best chances for rain today will occur generally along and south of a line from Farmville northeastward to Richmond and eastward to Wallops Island. QPF will be generally light with a few hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch expected. Greatest chances for rain will sink southward with the weak boundary later this afternoon and into the overnight. Rain chances will increase once again late tonight from the southwest as yet another wave is forecast to approach the area from the southwest. Temperatures today are quite tricky with uncertainty regarding the degree of cloud cover this afternoon. The best chance to see some clearing appears to be across the west and northwest where temps could breach the 60 degree mark. Cloud cover is expected to be thicker to the south and east but the slow moving cold front may not clear the far southeastern portion of the area, allowing temps to rise into the mid and upper 50s. Elsewhere, a combination of the weak front, light to moderate precip, and thicker cloud cover will lead to temps topping out in the mid 50s. If cloud cover is thicker or thinner than forecast, these temps may bust in a big way. Overnight low temps will bottom out in the upper 30s across the north, ranging to the low/mid 40s across the south. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EST Thursday... Rain chances will continue for Friday as the aforementioned system comes in from the west on what appears to be never ending southwesterly flow aloft. Highest PoPs will occur across the southwestern portion of the area on Friday and spread eastward into the overnight and Saturday. High pressure across the northeastern states will allow a CAD wedge to develop on Saturday with plentiful moisture riding over the near surface cold dome. Chance to likely PoPs are forecast for Saturday and Saturday night as parent low pressure lifts from the Plains states into the Midwest. The entire area should be north of the front on Friday with temperatures maxing out in the mid 40s. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 30s with a few 40s possible across the far southeast. Saturday will be another tricky temperature forecast with the wedge airmass entrenched across the northwest and a warm front lifting northward. Currently have highs in the 40s with low to possibly mid 50s across SE VA and NE NC. Overnight lows will be similar with upper 30s NW to low 50s SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM Wednesday... Potent upper shortwave (coupled w/ deepening sfc low pressure) is progged to track from the Plains to the Upper Midwest Sat night. This will allow the warm front to move N of the region Sat night, breaking down the CAD/wedge pattern in place during the day on Sat. As the warm front lifts N, the main area of steady rain will lift N/NE of the region. However, numerous showers are likely across the N/NW, while areas S of I-64/E of I-95 will see isolated-scattered showers through the night. Temperatures will slowly rise Sat night (forecast temps at 12z Sun range from the low 50s over the NW Piedmont to around 60 over SE VA/NE NC) as winds veer to the S then SW behind the front. Shower chances continue through 18z Sun before the trailing cold front crosses the region as the aforementioned sfc low tracks into SE Canada. Expect temperatures to warm up quickly during the day on Sun w/ SW-W winds before low-level CAA overtakes the region. Highs will be in the low-mid 70s in most areas (except for mid-upper 60s on the Ern Shore). Upper 70s are possible in SE VA/NE NC. Flow aloft becomes more zonal across the CONUS early next week, leading to less active wx across much of the country (including our area). Drier (but still around average) Mon/Mon night as sfc high pressure briefly settles into the region. Still dry/seasonable on Tue as high pressure moves offshore. Our next chance of rain is Tue night-Wed, as low pressure and an associated cold front approach the region. Highs on Mon will be in the mid-upper 50s in most areas (except for low 50s on the Ern Shore). Lows mainly in the upper 20s- low 30s Mon night w/ highs rising into the upper 40s on the Ern Shore/low-mid 50s elsewhere on Tue. Lows Tue night range from the mid 30s N/NW to the low 40s SE. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Thursday... IFR/LIFR CIGS in place across the region tonight with areas of lowered visibility encroaching on the southern terminals (ECG and ORF). Guidance has trended towards LIFR ceilings hanging on for the overnight and for a good part of the day across the southern terminals (ORF, PHF, and ECG). Conditions improve after sunrise for RIC and SBY where ceilings lift a bit but remain IFR/MVFR. There is the potential for LLWS late tonight at ORF and PHF. Visibility should increase for all terminals into the afternoon hours but will be slowest to improve across the south and southeast. Intermittent showers are possible through the overnight but will become increasingly confined to southern areas after sunrise. Outlook...High pressure builds N of the region Thursday night into Friday. However, moisture will continue to spread over the region with clouds and a minimal chc of light rain continuing. Low pressure, and more rain and flight restrictions are expected Friday night into Saturday. A cold front crosses the region Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 340 AM EST Thursday... Sfc low pressure has pushed off the northern mid-Atlantic coast with a cold front well to the west of the local marine area. Winds are generally from the west at 10-15 kt early this morning. Even with some wind, areas of dense fog that developed earlier this morning continue to linger over the lower Bay/lower James, Currituck sound, and coastal waters S of Parramore Island and have a Marine Fog Advisory for these zones through 7 am. VSBYs to the north are mainly from 1 to 3 NM but may drop below 1 NM so will bear watching. SCA headlines are still in effect through late this morning for the coastal waters (primarily for 5-6 ft seas). Wavewatch and NWPS brings these down to 4 ft, but this may be too quick given the current trends so will re-visit this with the 7 am update cycle. Winds will become fairly light late this morning/early aftn, then shift to the NNE through late aftn/early evening. With the airmass actually becoming warmer even as a cold front passes through, mixing will be limited so winds will not increase to SCA levels. Some increase is expected overnight as the sfc high to the N sags south into the area but for now have winds only to ~15 kt. High pressure over the area Fri gradually retreats to the NE on Sat, as the front begins to lift back N as a warm front Sat night. Winds will veer to the SE Sat night then to the SW and increase on Sun as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. SCA conditions will be possible Sun and Sun night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ632>634- 638-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD/RHR NEAR TERM...RHR SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ERI/RHR MARINE...LKB/TMG

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