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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210903
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
403 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary moves slowly southward today then stalls
over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states through Friday.
Another low pressure system arrives by Saturday, with a cold
frontal passage Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

A weak cold front will continue to slowly drop southward through
the course of the day. With the front aligned nearly parallel
to the upper level southwesterly flow, there will be little
impetus to force the front southward today. Copious moisture
will continue to stream into the region on southwesterly flow
aloft leading to greater chances for precip today along and
south of the boundary. Thus, best chances for rain today will
occur generally along and south of a line from Farmville
northeastward to Richmond and eastward to Wallops Island. QPF
will be generally light with a few hundredths to a couple tenths
of an inch expected. Greatest chances for rain will sink
southward with the weak boundary later this afternoon and into
the overnight. Rain chances will increase once again late
tonight from the southwest as yet another wave is forecast to
approach the area from the southwest.

Temperatures today are quite tricky with uncertainty regarding
the degree of cloud cover this afternoon. The best chance to see
some clearing appears to be across the west and northwest where
temps could breach the 60 degree mark. Cloud cover is expected
to be thicker to the south and east but the slow moving cold
front may not clear the far southeastern portion of the area,
allowing temps to rise into the mid and upper 50s. Elsewhere, a
combination of the weak front, light to moderate precip, and
thicker cloud cover will lead to temps topping out in the mid
50s. If cloud cover is thicker or thinner than forecast, these
temps may bust in a big way. Overnight low temps will bottom out
in the upper 30s across the north, ranging to the low/mid 40s
across the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EST Thursday...

Rain chances will continue for Friday as the aforementioned
system comes in from the west on what appears to be never
ending southwesterly flow aloft. Highest PoPs will occur across
the southwestern portion of the area on Friday and spread
eastward into the overnight and Saturday. High pressure across
the northeastern states will allow a CAD wedge to develop on
Saturday with plentiful moisture riding over the near surface
cold dome. Chance to likely PoPs are forecast for Saturday and
Saturday night as parent low pressure lifts from the Plains
states into the Midwest.

The entire area should be north of the front on Friday with
temperatures maxing out in the mid 40s. Overnight lows will
generally be in the mid to upper 30s with a few 40s possible
across the far southeast. Saturday will be another tricky
temperature forecast with the wedge airmass entrenched across
the northwest and a warm front lifting northward. Currently
have highs in the 40s with low to possibly mid 50s across SE VA
and NE NC. Overnight lows will be similar with upper 30s NW to
low 50s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...

Potent upper shortwave (coupled w/ deepening sfc low pressure) is
progged to track from the Plains to the Upper Midwest Sat night.
This will allow the warm front to move N of the region Sat night,
breaking down the CAD/wedge pattern in place during the day on Sat.
As the warm front lifts N, the main area of steady rain will lift
N/NE of the region. However, numerous showers are likely across the
N/NW, while areas S of I-64/E of I-95 will see isolated-scattered
showers through the night. Temperatures will slowly rise Sat night
(forecast temps at 12z Sun range from the low 50s over the NW
Piedmont to around 60 over SE VA/NE NC) as winds veer to the S then
SW behind the front. Shower chances continue through 18z Sun before
the trailing cold front crosses the region as the aforementioned sfc
low tracks into SE Canada. Expect temperatures to warm up quickly
during the day on Sun w/ SW-W winds before low-level CAA overtakes
the region. Highs will be in the low-mid 70s in most areas (except
for mid-upper 60s on the Ern Shore). Upper 70s are possible in SE
VA/NE NC.

Flow aloft becomes more zonal across the CONUS early next week,
leading to less active wx across much of the country (including our
area). Drier (but still around average) Mon/Mon night as sfc high
pressure briefly settles into the region. Still dry/seasonable on
Tue as high pressure moves offshore. Our next chance of rain is Tue
night-Wed, as low pressure and an associated cold front approach the
region. Highs on Mon will be in the mid-upper 50s in most areas
(except for low 50s on the Ern Shore). Lows mainly in the upper 20s-
low 30s Mon night w/ highs rising into the upper 40s on the Ern
Shore/low-mid 50s elsewhere on Tue. Lows Tue night range from the
mid 30s N/NW to the low 40s SE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Thursday...

IFR/LIFR CIGS in place across the region tonight with areas of
lowered visibility encroaching on the southern terminals (ECG
and ORF). Guidance has trended towards LIFR ceilings hanging on
for the overnight and for a good part of the day across the
southern terminals (ORF, PHF, and ECG). Conditions improve after
sunrise for RIC and SBY where ceilings lift a bit but remain
IFR/MVFR. There is the potential for LLWS late tonight at ORF
and PHF. Visibility should increase for all terminals into the
afternoon hours but will be slowest to improve across the south
and southeast. Intermittent showers are possible through the
overnight but will become increasingly confined to southern
areas after sunrise.

Outlook...High pressure builds N of the region Thursday night
into Friday. However, moisture will continue to spread over the
region with clouds and a minimal chc of light rain continuing.
Low pressure, and more rain and flight restrictions are expected
Friday night into Saturday. A cold front crosses the region
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 AM EST Thursday...

Sfc low pressure has pushed off the northern mid-Atlantic coast
with a cold front well to the west of the local marine area.
Winds are generally from the west at 10-15 kt early this
morning. Even with some wind, areas of dense fog that developed
earlier this morning continue to linger over the lower Bay/lower
James, Currituck sound, and coastal waters S of Parramore
Island and have a Marine Fog Advisory for these zones through 7
am. VSBYs to the north are mainly from 1 to 3 NM but may drop
below 1 NM so will bear watching. SCA headlines are still in
effect through late this morning for the coastal waters
(primarily for 5-6 ft seas). Wavewatch and NWPS brings these
down to 4 ft, but this may be too quick given the current trends
so will re-visit this with the 7 am update cycle.

Winds will become fairly light late this morning/early aftn,
then shift to the NNE through late aftn/early evening. With the
airmass actually becoming warmer even as a cold front passes
through, mixing will be limited so winds will not increase to
SCA levels. Some increase is expected overnight as the sfc high
to the N sags south into the area but for now have winds only to
~15 kt. High pressure over the area Fri gradually retreats to
the NE on Sat, as the front begins to lift back N as a warm
front Sat night. Winds will veer to the SE Sat night then to
the SW and increase on Sun as a stronger cold front approaches
from the west. SCA conditions will be possible Sun and Sun
night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ632>634-
     638-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MRD/RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...ERI/RHR
MARINE...LKB/TMG