-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
702
FXUS61 KAKQ 161057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
657 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated for 12Z TAFS.

Added a slight chance of showers tonight across the far north. In
addition, added a slight chance of Sunday afternoon showers/thunderstorms
across central Virginia.

Marine: Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the nearshore
Atlantic coastal waters.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures today. A slight chance for showers
across the far north tonight.

2) Well above normal temperatures Sunday through Wednesday. A
small chance for showers/storms across central VA Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise, little appreciable rainfall is expected
until at least Wednesday night or later.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM EDT Saturday

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures today. A slight chance for
showers across the far north tonight.

Surface high pressure has shifted off the coast and upper heights
will build today. Other than some high clouds, expect a mostly sunny
day with temperatures rising above normal into the mid 80s inland
and lower 80s closer to the coast. Latest guidance suggests that a
few showers may move eastward tonight across the far north in
response to a weakening short wave over Iowa and Wisconsin. The 00z
CAMS suggest the best chance for this activity will stay north of
the area, however there is enough support from the CAMS to introduce
slight chance PoPs across the far north into the MD eastern shore
tonight. Rainfall, if any, will not amount to much due the very dry
air aloft.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well above normal temperatures Sunday-Wednesday. A
small chance for showers/storms across central VA Sunday afternoon.
Otherwise, little appreciable rainfall is expected until at least
Wednesday night or later.

Big story through Wednesday will be the summer-like high
temperatures each day. Sunday will be the start of widespread
temperatures in the 90s. Many places away from the immediate coast
and eastern shore will see temperatures in the lower 90s with the
multi-model ensemble showing an 80%+ probability of 90F+, although
mid 90s not expected with multi-model ensemble showing <10%
probability of 95F+ on Sunday. The REFS and NBM suggest some
isolated convective development Sunday afternoon over central
Virginia given the MLCAPE values of nearly 1000 j/kg. However, given
the building heights across the region, the atmosphere may remain
capped through the afternoon. Nonetheless, the lee trough may be
just enough for an isolated storm on Sunday afternoon and have
maintained the slight chance PoPs from the NBM on Sunday afternoon.

Otherwise, the remainder of the week through Wednesday looks dry and
hot. Ensemble guidance suggests broad support for widespread
temperatures in the low to mid 90s each day through Wednesday as
850mb temps are around 18C. There is overall a very low 1-3 deg
interquartile range for MaxT each day so confidence is high in these
temperatures each day. Fortunately, while it will be quite hot, dew
points will struggle to rise out of the low 60s each day so heat
index values will not be much different than the actual temperature.
In fact, the NBM essentially has a 0% probability of heat index
values rising to 100 or greater next week.

Still a great amount of uncertainty regarding the frontal system for
Thursday. Will maintain PoPs from Wed afternoon through Friday, with
the highest PoPs on Thursday. This front will be slow to move south
of the area, so there will likely be a period of unsettled weather
later next week. However, given the zonal flow aloft with any
significant moisture from the Gulf being cut off from the area, am
not expecting significant precipitation amounts. In fact, the NBM
only shows about a 60% probability of at least 0.50" with less than
a 30% probability of 1".

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 700 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions expected through the period with generally high
clouds. South winds will become gusty later this morning into
this afternoon as the high pressure shifts offshore. A very
small chance for a shower late in the forecast period at SBY,
but no flight restrictions are expected. South winds 10 kt or
less tonight.

Outlook...VFR conditions expected through early next week as high
pressure remains in control. There is a small chance for a storm in
central Virginia Sunday afternoon. South winds each afternoon may
gust to 10-20kt as high pressure remains stationary off the
coast. Next chance of rain not expected until late Wed or
Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected over the rivers,
  Currituck Sound and the Chesapeake Bay through the weekend
  and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.

- Building seas could result in a brief SCA over the nearshore
  Atlantic coastal waters Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Latest observations reflect SSW winds ~ 10 kt across the local
waters early this morning. Waves are averaging ~1 ft, with seas
2-3 ft nearshore and 3-4 ft offshore. Surface high pressure
centered just off the coastal Carolinas will continue to slide
farther offshore through tonight. This will allow winds to shift
to the SW through midday before backing to the SSE and
increasing slightly to 10-15 kt with the afternoon seabreeze. A
few gusts to 20 kt will be possible late this afternoon and this
evening in the bay, but likely not quite persistent enough for
SCA.

An increasingly choppy and briefly confused sea state will
develop late today and evening, with seas comprised of a SE wind
wave (4-6 second periods) overriding a lingering E-NE swell
(8-10 second periods). This combination will build significant
wave heights to 4-6 ft tonight, with the highest seas located
north of Cape Charles. A short-fused SCA has been issued for
this evening for the far southern coastal waters, and a
slightly longer SCA was issued for tonight/overnight through
early Sunday morning for nearshore coastal waters north of the
VA/NC border. Seas will gradually diminish thereafter Sunday
morning, remaining 2-4 ft through early next week.

Thereafter, high pressure settles into typical summertime
Bermuda High configuration for Sunday into the middle of next
week. Winds remain primarily SSW around 10 kt outside of the
daily mid to late-afternoon nearshore seabreeze. The afternoon
breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt
to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each
afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish through
the overnight. Expect generally benign marine conditions to
prevail through midweek.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...AC/MAM