Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 131836 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 236 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cool high pressure continues through Saturday. A disturbance approaches from the west on Sunday and impacts the area early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday... High pressure is to our NW this afternoon over the OH valley. This has allowed cool northerly flow across the local area today, with high temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A weak surface from the Mid Atlantic to upper New England is resulting in some scattered CU but no precip. CU will dissipate after sunset with mostly clear skies expected overnight. It will be another chilly night with overnight lows ranging from the lower 40s inland, to mid and upper 40s closer to the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday... The high over the OH valley shifts a bit further east on Friday with a light northerly flow again over the area. A weak upper level low will advance to the Mid Atlantic coast during the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a surface trough will again be over the Mid Atlantic during the afternoon and evening. This may touch off an isolated shower and perhaps a thunderstorm over the far NW during the late afternoon or early evening, but otherwise expecting another mainly dry day across the area. Afternoon temps a couple degrees warmer than today with generally lower 70s expected. Friday night temps drop down to the lower 40s inland, to mid and upper 40s near the coast. The upper low will move away from the coast on Saturday and surface high pressure will settle over the area. A pleasant day expected with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s, and low temps Saturday night in the upper 40s to lower 50s. High pressure moves off the coast on Sunday, and NW flow sets up aloft. Most of the day will be dry, however a system approaching from the west may touch off some late day showers/storms across the western half of the area. High temps will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s over the piedmont, and low to mid 70s elsewhere. Milder overnight temps Sunday night in the low to mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday... A shortwave will cross the area Monday into Tuesday. A frontal boundary will become draped in the vicinity of the area, with low pressure riding along the boundary from the Mid West to the Mid Atlantic. This set up will result in unsettled conditions for the early part of the week, with periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms especially Monday night into Tuesday morning. Drier conditions expected for Wednesday through the remainder of the week as the low moves off the coast and away of the area and surface high pressure and upper level ridging builds into the region. A gradual moderating trend in temps is expected with highs in the lower 70s on Monday, upper 70s on Tuesday, and then lower 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight low temps next week generally in the mid to upper 50s.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF period. Northerly winds 8-12 kts this afternoon will become light and variable overnight as weak high pressure moves offshore, and then winds will become northerly again Friday morning through the remainder of the TAF period. FEW to SCT mid CU this afternoon and early evening becoming SKC overnight into early Friday morning. Outlook...VFR conditions persist through midday Sunday. A disturbance approaching from the west will impact the area late Sunday night into the early part of next week which will bring the next chance for potential flight restrictions. && .MARINE...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday... This afternoon, high pressure remains centered northwest of the area while weak low pressure is located well southeast of the waters. Winds range from N to NE around 10 to 15 knots. Seas range from 2 to 3 feet while waves in the Bay range from 1 to 2 feet. Benign, sub-Small Craft Advisory, marine conditions are forecast to continue tonight into the upcoming weekend. High pressure will continue to build further east into the local area tonight/tomorrow and become centered offshore this weekend. As a result, expect winds 10 knots or less with variable to eventually easterly to southerly flow. A disturbance approaches the region Sunday into Monday, but this is also not looking like a big wind maker at this time. Seas will generally remain around 2 feet and waves in the Bay around 1 foot.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CMF NEAR TERM...CMF SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...CMF AVIATION...CMF MARINE...AJB

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