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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 131836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
236 PM EDT Thu May 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
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Cool high pressure continues through Saturday. A disturbance
approaches from the west on Sunday and impacts the area early
next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure is to our NW this afternoon over the OH valley. This
has allowed cool northerly flow across the local area today, with
high temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A weak surface from the
Mid Atlantic to upper New England is resulting in some scattered CU
but no precip. CU will dissipate after sunset with mostly clear
skies expected overnight. It will be another chilly night with
overnight lows ranging from the lower 40s inland, to mid and upper
40s closer to the coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

The high over the OH valley shifts a bit further east on Friday with
a light northerly flow again over the area. A weak upper level low
will advance to the Mid Atlantic coast during the afternoon and
evening. Meanwhile, a surface trough will again be over the Mid
Atlantic during the afternoon and evening. This may touch off an
isolated shower and perhaps a thunderstorm over the far NW during
the late afternoon or early evening, but otherwise expecting another
mainly dry day across the area. Afternoon temps a couple degrees
warmer than today with generally lower 70s expected. Friday night
temps drop down to the lower 40s inland, to mid and upper 40s near
the coast.

The upper low will move away from the coast on Saturday and surface
high pressure will settle over the area. A pleasant day expected
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s, and low temps Saturday
night in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

High pressure moves off the coast on Sunday, and NW flow sets up
aloft. Most of the day will be dry, however a system approaching
from the west may touch off some late day showers/storms across the
western half of the area. High temps will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s over the piedmont, and low to mid 70s elsewhere. Milder
overnight temps Sunday night in the low to mid 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

A shortwave will cross the area Monday into Tuesday. A frontal
boundary will become draped in the vicinity of the area, with low
pressure riding along the boundary from the Mid West to the Mid
Atlantic. This set up will result in unsettled conditions for the
early part of the week, with periods of showers and scattered
thunderstorms especially Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Drier conditions expected for Wednesday through the remainder of the
week as the low moves off the coast and away of the area and surface
high pressure and upper level ridging builds into the region. A
gradual moderating trend in temps is expected with highs in the
lower 70s on Monday, upper 70s on Tuesday, and then lower 80s on
Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight low temps next week generally in
the mid to upper 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF period. Northerly winds 8-12
kts this afternoon will become light and variable overnight as
weak high pressure moves offshore, and then winds will become
northerly again Friday morning through the remainder of the TAF
period. FEW to SCT mid CU this afternoon and early evening
becoming SKC overnight into early Friday morning.

Outlook...VFR conditions persist through midday Sunday. A
disturbance approaching from the west will impact the area late
Sunday night into the early part of next week which will bring
the next chance for potential flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

This afternoon, high pressure remains centered northwest of the area
while weak low pressure is located well southeast of the waters.
Winds range from N to NE around 10 to 15 knots. Seas range from 2 to
3 feet while waves in the Bay range from 1 to 2 feet.

Benign, sub-Small Craft Advisory, marine conditions are forecast to
continue tonight into the upcoming weekend. High pressure will
continue to build further east into the local area tonight/tomorrow
and become centered offshore this weekend. As a result, expect winds
10 knots or less with variable to eventually easterly to southerly
flow. A disturbance approaches the region Sunday into Monday, but
this is also not looking like a big wind maker at this time. Seas
will generally remain around 2 feet and waves in the Bay around 1
foot.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMF
NEAR TERM...CMF
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM...CMF
AVIATION...CMF
MARINE...AJB