Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 062327 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 627 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slowly builds into the area through Sunday with dry weather continuing through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 345 PM EST Saturday... Sfc high pressure over the Upper Midwest continues to build toward the area through tonight. Aloft, broad troughing is in place from ern Canada to much of the ern CONUS. Low pressure continues to move out to sea well to the south of the FA. Temps as of 3 PM generally in the low 50s for most and mid 40s for the Eastern Shore. A weak, dry cold front will cross the area this evening into early tonight, allowing for winds to switch from W/NW to N and become light. SCT cu over MD will gradually dissipate after sunset. Cirrus in SE VA/NE NC will increase in coverage later this afternoon into the evening before moving offshore tonight. Skies become clear in all areas by late tonight. Lows tonight ranging from the low-mid 20s inland to the upper 20s/low 30s in coastal SE VA and NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 PM EST Saturday... High pressure will continue to build in from the west Sun into Sun night before becoming centered over the local area Mon with mostly sunny skies both Sun and Mon. Highs Sun a little cooler than today in the upper 40s to around 50F W and mid 40s E (low to mid 40s over the Eastern Shore). Highs Mon in the mid 50s W and upper 40s E (mid 40s over the Eastern Shore). Lows Sun night will remain cold with low to mid 20s inland and mid to upper 20s along the coast. Lows Mon night will be warmer in the low 30s. Sun and Mon will remain dry with dews in the upper single digits to teens Sun and in the teens Mon and min RH values around 19-25% inland and 25-30% along the coast and over the Eastern Shore both days. Fortunately, NW winds will be light both days, generally around 5-10 MPH, which will help mitigate fire weather potential now that the fire fuels are beginning to dry out. Tues will begin the warming trend with highs in the mid to upper 60s (low to mid 60s for the Eastern Shore) as the high slides off the SE coast, allowing for SW flow to kick in. Winds will remain light (5- 10 MPH) and RH values will come up some but still remain low at 25- 30% inland and 35-40% along the coast and over the Eastern Shore. Any cloud cover should be confined to the Eastern Shore and perhaps down to the Northern Neck. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 PM EST Saturday... The medium range period continues to feature dry and warm conditions through late in the week, with some potential for the pattern to break down a bit into the upcoming weekend. Above average temperatures prevail Wed-Fri and potentially cool off closer to average by Sat. Good model consensus that sfc high pressure becomes centered off the mid-Atlantic/SE US coast from Tue night through Thu, eventually weakening and moving farther offshore Fri-Sat as a cold front tries to approach from the NW. The GFS/GEFS keep the ridge stronger into Sat with no real chance for precip until late Sat (and very warm temperatures continuing Sat). The ECMWF/EPS break the upper ridge down faster and would support chance PoPs by Fri. The NBM is generally a good compromise at this point, generally keeping the front to our N through at least part of Friday. Dry wx will persist through at least early Fri, and will continue with slight chc PoPs for showers (mainly N) Fri aftn through Fri night/Sat as the front approaches and moves into the region. A lot of uncertainty exists for temperatures on Sat depending on where the front ends up being located. The only real concern wx-wise will be the potential for increased fire danger by the middle of the week, as winds increase out ahead of the approaching cold front with dew pts that only moderate slightly. Although we entered March with soil moisture unseasonably high, this persistent stretch of dry days is already beginning to dry out fuels. By Wed-Thu next week, this could become an issue in regards to increased fire danger, especially once temps begin to warm through the week. At this time, Thu probably has the greatest chance for headlines. Highs will range from the upper 60s/around 70F Wed (mid 60s Eastern Shore), low to perhaps mid 70s Thu (mid to upper 60s Eastern Shore), low to mid 70s Fri (mid to upper 60s Eastern Shore). Lows will range from the upper 30s to low 40s Tues night, mid to upper 40s Wed night, upper 40s to low 50s Thurs night, and mid 40s to low 50s Fri night. Sat is much more uncertain: current forecast has highs in the upper 60s to near 70F S and in the mid-upper 50s on the eastern shore, but highs could still be well into the 70s across southern VA and NE NC if the GFS/GEFS scenario verifies. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 625 PM EST Saturday... VFR flying weather will persist through the 00z TAF period. A few high clouds are noted on satellite imagery but skies will average SKC through the forecast period. Winds are generally out of the NW around 5kt. A weak front crosses the area tonight but not expecting winds to increase, so will mention VRB overnight. N and NW winds resume by mid-morning Sunday, generally 5-10 kt with a few gusts 15-20 kt near the coastal terminals. OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR conditions persist into early next week.
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&& .MARINE... As of 310 PM EST Saturday... This afternoon, high pressure continues to build across the local area with sub-SCA conditions over the waters. Winds directions range from W to NW across the northern waters to E to SE further south. Winds speeds are generally around 10 knots. High pressure will eventually settle over the waters later this weekend through early next week before sliding further offshore by the middle of the week. Winds tonight through Sunday generally become N around 15 knots. Northerly flow persists through Monday before becoming S to SW Tuesday and beyond. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI/RMM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...ERI/LKB AVIATION...RHR MARINE...AJB

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