Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251942 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 342 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure lifts northeast and away from the area this evening and tonight. Weak high pressure returns Thursday. The next area of low pressure crosses the local area late Thursday night through Friday. Dry weather is on tap this weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... An upper level low is currently centered over the mid-Atlantic region, and is accompanied by scattered showers and a couple of tstms. Pcpn is most extensive across southern/SE VA into NE NC where one or two stronger tstms will be capable of brief rain heavy and small hail thru about sunset. For areas east of I-95 and especially where some peeks of sun have occurred, temps have been able to warm into the low/mid 70s this afternoon. Farther west into the Piedmont, where clouds have been more stubborn to break, temps have remained in the upr 50s to low/mid 60s. By this evening, expecting the upper low overhead to exit northeast and head offshore. It should take with it any lingering showers across eastern areas, so that pcpn ends altogether on the eastern shore by about 03z. Expecting some lingering moisture over far srn/SE areas of the FA into Thu morning for mostly cloudy conditions. Turning out mostly clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows from the upr 40s NW to the mid 50s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... A brief break from the unsettled weather Thursday...although expecting clouds to begin arriving/increasing from the SSW as the next area of low pressure tracks through TN/nrn AL/nrn GA. Expect most areas to be dry through the day, although did allow slight chc PoPs over interior NE NC after 21z. Highs Thu mainly 70-75F, except 60s at the beaches. A quick increase in PoPs (to 40-80%) Thu night (after 06z) as low pressure enters the FA from the SW. Keeping PoPs 50-70% NE half of the FA Fri morning...tapering to 20-30% far SW. The low pressure area lifts to the NE of the local area Friday afternoon...however will be keeping 20-30% as a low pressure trough remains invof the FA. Otherwise...mostly cloudy Friday morning, then some partial sunshine in the afternoon. Lows Thursday night from near 50 N to the mid 50s S. Highs Friday from the upr 60s NW and along the immediate coast to the low/mid 70s central/southern locales. Improved conditions Friday night and Saturday, although do expect a dry cold front to cross the region Saturday afternoon. Partly to mostly clear during this time. Lows Friday night from the upr 40s NW to the mid 50s SE. Highs Saturday mainly 70-75, except upr 60s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... Some delightful spring weather on tap early next week as high pressure builds se from the Gt lakes region Sun to a position over the local area Mon then off the Mid Atlantic coast Tue/Wed. Cool to start, then a warming trend. Lows Sat/Sun nites near 40 nw to near 50 se. Highs Sun in the 60s, mid 60s-lwr 70s Mon. Lows Mon nite mid 40s nw to lwr 50s se. Highs Tues 75-80. Lows Tues nite in the 50s. Highs Wed upr 70s-lwr 80s. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... MVFR CIGS to linger at KRIC/KPHF thru 21z or so before improving. Otherwise, VRB clouds/mostly cloudy the rest of the afternoon. Will continue w/ SCT-Likely SHRAS and there could be ISOLD tstms as the cold pool aloft crosses the region from about 18Z/25-00Z/26. Have included TEMPO groups at PHF/ORF?ECG to indicate highest confidence in SHRAs, from about 20-23z. Wx will be slow to improve tonight as low pres finally moves away to the ENE. VFR conditions expected Thu as weak hi pres returns. Another area of lo pres will impact the region by late Thu night into Fri afternoon w/ flight restrictions likely due to lower BKN-OVC CIGS and SHRAS. Mainly VFR conditions expected Sat-Sun. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday... SCA Headlines remain in effect through 1 am Thu for the mouth of the Bay, and well into Thu aftn for all coastal waters due to lingering long period E/SE swell of 10-12 seconds. Seas currently avg 6-8 ft with waves to around 4 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Broad low pressure moving into the Delmarva this aftn and will continue to lift NE into New Jersey this evening through tonight. Winds are relatively light with S to SE flow around 10 kt or less (light/variable in some areas). Winds will shift to the W to NW at around 15 kt later tonight into Thu morning. While some occasional 20 kt gusts will probably develop for a few hrs early Thu morning across much of the area (especially in the Bay N of New pt Comfort), does not look to be enough to warrant SCA headlines since there is minimal cold advection in the wake of this cold front. Weak sfc high pressure builds in fm the NNW on Thu, with winds diminishing by late morning and shifting back to onshore during the mid/late aftn hrs through Thu evening. Another low pressure area will affect the waters Thu night thru Fri, as it tracks from the SE U.S. through the local area on Fri and off to the NE by Fri night. Another cold front crosses the waters Sat night, increasing winds close to SCA levels, then diminishing Sun as high pressure returns. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB/JDM MARINE...LKB

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