Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 162359 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 759 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Dry...cool weather expected Tue then warmer mid week as high pressure slides by to our south. Gusty west winds will accompany a cold front crossing the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Deep/anomalous upper level lo pres will be tracking E from the Great Lakes into New England tonight. An initial s/w in the broad WNW flow aloft will be exiting the coast this evening. A secondary system aloft will follow by late tonight. Expect periods of BKN CIGS overnight. W winds remain gusty to 20-30 mph (early) this evening then drop off (but do not fully decouple). Winds to begin picking back up around/shortly after sunrise Tue. Lows tonight in the m-u30s central/W (though expecting enough mixing/clouds and fall in dew points into the 20s to prevent frost development)...to around 40F E. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Primarily W winds (gusty to 20-25 kt) and cool/dry conditions Tue. Winds shift back to SW by Wed ahead of low pres diving ESE into the OH Valley. Highs Tue in the mid 50s-around 60F. Lows Tue night from the m-u30s NNW (sfc dew point depressions 5-10F may prevent frost) to the 40-45F S. Highs Wed from the l-m60s on the Ern Shore to the u60s-m70s in central VA to SE VA-NE NC. Potent s/w aloft tracks by just N of the FA late Wed night-Thu morning...w/ a cold front (moisture starved) pushing quickly E through the local area. Expected development of gusty W winds Thu along w/ a substantial push of dry air (by afternoon) into the region. Far NNE areas of the FA may be brushed by BKN clouds and isold SHRAS. Lows Wed night in the u40s-l50s N to the m50s S. Highs Thu from the l-m60s on the Ern Shore to the u60s- m70s in central VA to SE VA-NE NC. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Below normal temperatures are expected through the extended portion of the forecast. NW flow aloft maintains dry/cooler wx will prevail for Thu-Sat. Lo pres will be exiting the central Plains Sat...tracking E and approaches the (lower) mid- Atlantic/SE states Sun-Mon...resulting in increasing clouds and 20-30% PoPs. Some drying from the N anticipated attm during next Mon. Lows Thu night in the u30s NW to the m40s SE. Highs Fri in the m-u50s E to around 60F W. Lows Fri night from the u30s NW to the l-m40s elsewhere. Highs Sat in the m50s at the coast to 60-65F inland. Lows Sat night ranging through 40s. Highs Sun from the u50 N to l60s S. Highs Mon mainly 60-65F. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Mostly VFR conditions over the region with mid and high clouds still prominent. Big low pressure system over the NE U.S. will continue to rotate northward. A few very light showers or sprinkles persist over northern parts of the CWA and over the Eastern Shore. Some clearing is expected during the overnight but more mid level clouds will move into the area late morning into the afternoon. Conditions will remain VFR during the TAF period. W-WNW winds will diminish some tonight but will again become gusty 20-30 kt Tuesday from late morning through the afternoon. Outlook: VFR through Wed. A cold front will cross the region Thu accompanied by BKN (VFR) CIGS and gusty WNW winds.
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&& .MARINE... Have dropped the SCA`s briefly over the middle and northern Bay in addition to the York and Rappahannock rivers. Pressure gradient has been loosening up this afternoon however guidance suggests a surge of cool air will push winds back up to 15 kt with up to 20 kt across the lower Ches bay and mouth of the Bay overnight. SCAs may need to be raised again for the middle and upper Bay for the overnight / early Tuesday morning hours. Seas remain elevated over the coastal waters running 9 to 10 ft off Fenwick Island and 7 to 8 ft off Chincoteague in a combined swell and wind wave. Seas will slowly decease overnight but remain above 5 ft. Minimal SCA`s (W/NW 15-20 kt) early Tue with the deep low lingering over eastern Canada and high pressure to the west. Pres gradient may relax some Tuesday night, but WSW winds Wed increase again ahead of the next front that crosses the waters shifting the winds to the NW Wed night. Behind the strong strong NW winds persist. In general SCA conditions may persist through much of this week with just a brief lull. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The sustained S-SE wind of 20-30 kt is resulting in tidal anomalies approaching 1.5ft above normal attm. Went ahead and issued a coastal flood advisory for Bishops Head for the afternoon high tide as a wind shift to WSW today will likely push water into estuaries along the bay side of the MD Ern Shore where some minor flooding is expected. Held off on any advisories at OXB as the water level there expected to come in at 3.9 ft, just under the 4.0 foot minor flooding threshold. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021-023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ075-077. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-636- 638-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ALB MARINE...MPR/JAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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