Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251738 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 138 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks across Virginia today, then moves away from the coast tonight. Weak high pressure returns Thursday. Another area of low pressure crosses the local area late Thursday night through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday... Upper level low over central/eastern VA this afternoon will slowly lift NE thru early evening, and will be accompanied by SCT-likely SHRAS. Best likelihood appears to be south/east of the RIC Metro, especially south-central VA into the VA Tidewater/Hampton Roads/NE NC. Models suggest enough instability available as the cold pool aloft crosses the local area (esp srn/se VA-NE NC) for possible (ISOLD) tstms. Highs this afternoon from the mid 60s NW to the low/mid 70s SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Lo pres (sfc-aloft) exits the region this eve resulting in lowering PoPs. Will continue w/ trend of lowering PoPs SW-NE this eve...then drying begins overnight. Expecting some lingering moisture over far srn/SE areas of the FA into Thu morning. Lows from around 50F NW to the m50s SE. A brief break from the unsettled wx Thu...though expecting clouds to begin arriving/increasing from the SSW as the next area of lo pres tracks through TN/nrn AL/nrn GA. Have held off on raising PoPs above 14% over the (SW portion of the) FA through 00Z/27. Highs Thu mainly 70-75F. A quick increase in PoPs (to 50-80%) Thu night as lo pres enters the FA from the SW. Keeping PoPs 50-70% NE half of the FA Fri morning...tapering to 20-30% SW. The lo pres area lifts to the NE of the local area Fri afternoon...however will be keeping 20-30% as a lo pres trough remains invof the FA. Otherwise...mostly cloudy then partly sunny Fri...w/ highs from the u60s-around 70F N to the m70s SE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday... GFS/ECMWF differ early in this period with the GFS showing the last in a series of s/w trofs rounding the base of the long wave trof late Fri night with it moving off the sern coast Sat ahead of a weak frontal passage. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is drier with little if any support for pcpn even with the frontal passage Sat. A model blend results in low chc shwrs across the sern zones late Fri night and Sat keeping the rest of the local area dry for now. Lows Fri nite upr 40s-mid 50s. Highs Sat upr 60s-mid 70s, cooler at the beaches. After that, some delightful spring weather on tap early next week as high pressure builds se from the Gt lakes region Sun to a position over the local area Mon then off the Mid Atlantic coast Tue. Cool to start then a warming trend. Highs Sun generally in the 60s. Lows in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Mon upr 60s-lwr 70s. Lows upr 40s-lwr 50s. Highs Tue 75-80. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday... MVFR to IFR CIGS to linger at KRIC/KPHF thru 20z or so before improving. Otherwise, VRB clouds/mostly cloudy the rest of the afternoon. Will continue w/ SCT-Likely SHRAS and there could be ISOLD tstms as the cold pool aloft crosses the region from about 18Z/25-00Z/26. Have included TEMPO groups at PHF/ORF to indicate highest confidence in SHRAs, from about 20-23z. Wx will be slow to improve tonight as low pres finally moves away to the ENE. VFR conditions expected Thu as weak hi pres returns. Another area of lo pres will impact the region by late Thu night into Fri afternoon w/ flight restrictions likely due to lower BKN-OVC CIGS and SHRAS. Mainly VFR conditions expected Sat-Sun.
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&& .MARINE... As of 1155 AM EDT Wednesday... Fog has lifted across the Bay and rivers and is improving over the Ocean from Parramore Island and points north. Updated to allow dense FG advisory to expire, though will mentions 1-3NM vsbys this aftn N a of Parramore Island. SCA remains in effect for the ocean into Thu with lingering long period swell of 10-12 sec. Also have extended through 4pm for the mouth of the Bay for 4 ft waves. Waves 1-2 ft or less for the rest of the Bay/rivers/sound. Broad low pressure was cntrd over south central VA late this morning. This low will continue to lift NE and acrs ern VA, the Delmarva, and into New Jersey this aftn through tonight. SSW 5-15 kt during today (genly <10 kt over the Bay and rivers), then become W then NW 10-15 kt throughout the marine area later tonight into Thu morning. The low will move farther away to the NE later tonight into Thu, as weak high pressure builds in fm the NNW. Waves/seas will subside later today thru Thu. Another low pressure area will affect the waters Thu night thru Fri, as it tracks fm the SE U.S. northeast acrs VA and into New Jersey. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ALB/JDM MARINE...LKB/TMG

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