-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
911
FXUS61 KAKQ 101056
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
656 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will bring another round of showers and
storms this afternoon into tonight. A chance for showers
continues across mainly northern areas over the weekend. Dry and
warmer weather to start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Another round of showers/storms possible this afternoon and
  evening. While widespread severe is not expected, a few
  stronger storms are possible, especially for portions of
  northeast NC.

Early morning analysis shows weak low pressure over the region with
a lingering boundary bisecting the area, roughly along the I-64
corridor. Aloft, flow is from the W-SW ahead of a shortwave trough
digging SE across the Ohio Valley. Easterly flow is noted north of
the front with continued SW winds to the south. Some elevated
convection continues across the northern Ches Bay into the MD
Eastern Shore. These showers with embedded thunder will continue to
translate eastward and offshore early this morning.

Most of the area will be dry to start the day with just slight
chance PoPs across the far northern counties through noon.
Temperatures will vary considerably today with the front lingering
across the area. Highs may not reach 60 degrees across the MD
Eastern Shore this afternoon with continued cool/onshore flow while
areas along and SE of the I-64 corridor will warm into the mid 70s
to low 80s. As the potent shortwave aloft approaches the region this
afternoon, clouds increase and isolated to scattered showers will
redevelop across the area. CAM guidance has backed off on the
potential for stronger thunderstorms in our area this afternoon but
favorable kinematics aloft and cool temps associated with the upper
trough will keep the mention of thunder in the forecast. Brief gusty
winds are possible with any of the deeper convective cores this
afternoon. Forecast soundings show a few hundred J/Kg of SBCAPE but
the more robust instability will be confined to central and southern
NC. SPC has included a Marginal Risk of severe weather for areas
near and south of the Albemarle Sound. Chance for showers will
linger over the eastern half of the area this evening and toward the
coast overnight as low pressure forms offshore and forces the cold
front through the remainder of the area. Breezy near the coast late
tonight with some bay-effect showers possible from Norfolk southward
into NE NC. Lows fall into the upper 40s to low 50s as cold
advection ensues behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers possible Saturday with an upper-
  level disturbance.

Surface low deepens offshore and pulls away from the coast on
Saturday but another trough aloft dives SE toward the area during
the afternoon and evening hours. Temps will range from the mid and
upper 60s inland with low 60s forecast for the Atlantic side of the
Eastern Shore. PoPs increase across the NW in the afternoon and
spread east and northeast through the evening as the trough axis
moves through the area. Limited low level moisture will keep QPF
down despite the favorable lift ahead of the trough. Cool once again
Saturday night with lows in the 40s to low 50s.

The upper trough will be slow to exit the region on Sunday and
showers are expected to linger across the NE third of the area into
the afternoon hours. Temperatures will vary quite a bit with
sunshine allowing temps to rise into the low and mid 70s for the SW
half of the area while clouds and precip should keep highs in the
60s elsewhere. Cool temps aloft will result in at least some
elevated instability during the afternoon for the MD Eastern Shore
so have included a slight chance of thunder in the wx grids. Drying
out Sunday night as high pressure builds into the area with lows in
the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Warm and mostly sunny on Monday as high pressure moves offshore and
return flow develops. High temps top out in the mid to upper 70s
more most of the area. Some lower 70s are forecast along the Eastern
Shore with the cool water influence and lower 80s are possible for
portions of the NE NC. Clouds increase Monday night ahead of a
digging southern stream trough. A few showers are possible across
the west after midnight with lows back into the 50s to low 60s.

Unsettled conditions and above average rainfall are expected later
Tuesday through most of next week as multiple southern stream
systems move ENE towards the mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms are also
possible from Tuesday through late week. Highs Tuesday will be
warmest across the E (where precip holds off longest) and in the
upper 70s, with lower 70s W. Temps next Wed and Thu hover a few
degrees above/below 80F w/ overnight lows around 60F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 655 AM EDT Friday...

Mix of flying conditions across the region early this morning
with VFR noted over the southeastern half of the area and
IFR/MVFR for areas along and north of the front. RIC and PHF
are right along the boundary and have been bouncing between
VFR/MVFR/IFR so have included short TEMPO groups to cover the
transition period. IFR CIGs prevail at SBY and likely linger
into the early overnight period. Recent guidance shows less
coverage of showers and storms over most of the area. ECG will
be closer to greater instability across the central NC so have
included VCTS. Elsewhere, it appears instability will be limited
so went with VCSH wording with low confidence on timing and
coverage of precip. Winds are highly variable with the front in
the region.

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR most of Saturday, but another chance
for showers Saturday night into Sunday. Dry conditions return
Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

-Key Messages:

-Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay,
Atlantic Ocean, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound from today
through Saturday morning-afternoon.

-Prevailing sub-advisory conditions return by Saturday
afternoon/evening, and are expected to persist through at least
Monday.

A stationary front lingers over the Mid-Atlantic coast early this
morning, with E-NE winds of ~15kt north of it, and variable winds of
5-10kt across most of the bay and ocean S of Chincoteague. This
boundary will slowly move south over the waters today, and will pick
up speed this evening before dropping S of the local area tonight as
low pressure develops and tracks NE off the NC Outer Banks. A NE
wind is expected to increase to 15-20kt N of Chincoteague today with
seas building to 5-7ft. Elsewhere, winds will be W-NW at 10-15kt for
much of the day before becoming N-NNE and increasing to ~20kt this
evening shortly after the FROPA. With decent CAA and water temps in
the 60s to near 70F in many areas, went a bit higher than blended
guidance for winds tonight and expect N-NNE winds to remain around
20kt (with frequent 25kt gusts) through much of the night. A few
30kt gusts are possible. As for headlines, SCAs go into effect this
morning N of Parramore Island, and have been issued for all other
zones (except for the upper rivers) starting late this aftn/this
evening. The SCAs run through Sat AM-Sat aftn (ending across the nrn
waters earliest/srn waters latest). Seas build to ~6ft across all
ocean zones tonight, with 3-4ft waves on the bay. Winds quickly
diminish to ~10kt by early Sat aftn as the pressure gradient relaxes
as the low moves well offshore. Seas should quickly fall below 5ft
by mid to late aftn.

A secondary front tracks across the coast later Saturday
aftn/evening. The wind becomes SE 10-15kt ahead of the front and
then shifts to NW late Saturday night/early Sunday. The current
forecast is sub-SCA, although some guidance suggests low-end SCA
conditions are possible over the Ches Bay. High pressure builds over
the coast later Sunday into Monday. Another low pressure system and
weak cold front impact the Mid-Atlantic coast in the Tuesday-
Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

-Key Messages:

-Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for almost all of the
area bordering the Chesapeake Bay, Atlantic Ocean, and tidal rivers
for tonight`s high tide.

-Minor tidal flooding (inundation of ~1 foot above ground level in
vulnerable areas) is expected during high tide tonight into early
Saturday.

An increasing NE then N wind tonight into early Saturday along with
elevated astronomical tides will bring a round of widespread minor
tidal flooding across the area. Water levels are expected to crest a
few tenths of a foot above minor flood thresholds in areas adjacent
to the Ches Bay, Atlantic Ocean, and tidal rivers during tonight`s
high tide cycle. Levels at Oyster may crest right at the moderate
flood threshold for that site. Went ahead and issued Coastal Flood
Advisories for all areas except the bay side of the MD Eastern
Shore, where levels are forecast to crest near or just above minor
flood thresholds tonight. A Statement or Advisory may eventually be
needed, but confidence isn`t high enough to issue one attm.
Additional tidal flooding is expected Saturday night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for MDZ024-025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Saturday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Saturday for
     VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for VAZ076-078-085-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Saturday for VAZ084-086-095-097-098-523.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Saturday for VAZ089-090-093-096-524-525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ632-634-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR/SW
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...