Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 280258 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1058 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary lingers across the Maryland eastern shore into Monday before dissipating. Meanwhile, high pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic for most of this week. The remnant low Alberto is expected to track west of the mountains through mid week. The moisture ahead of this low will result in unsettled conditions over the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 1045 PM EDT Sunday... Cancelled the Flash Flood Watch for Dorchester/Wicomico given the position of the backdoor cold front. The threat is diminishing a bit to the south across Somerset and southern Worcester but still enough potential and an ongoing FLS in effect to keep the watch going there. Otherwise, latest analysis indicating that the backdoor cold front has dropped south into portions of the lower MD eastern shore, with temperatures now into the low-mid 60s from Ocean City to Salisbury. Elsewhere, showers with embedded tstms persist ongoing over portions of central/eastern VA mainly from Cumberland Co ENE through the north side of metro Richmond. Precipitable water values in this region avg 1.90" to 2.00" with training storms due to low MBE values. Lows tonight in the upper 60s/lower 70s except lower 60s MD eastern shore. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM EDT Sunday... Given Alberto`s remnant low track, models are now showing more of the deeper moisture bands moving north and rotating across the Mid Atlantic region through mid week with the heaviest rainfall across the srn half of the local area. 1.5-2.5 in QPF across srn VA with 2.5-3.5 in across NC. Given this rainfall will be spread out over a few days, will hold off on any flood watch for now but may eventually need one in later shifts given how wet it has been lately. First band progged to rotate north Mon aftn where likely to cat pops will be kept across the south, chc across the north. Clouds and pcpn will keep temps down a bit, with highs upr 70s- lwr 80s. Likely pops cont across the south Mon night with chc pops across the north. Lows in the mid 60s-lwr 70s. Additional moisture bands are progged to move across the region Tue and Wed. Timing will be problematic so will keep chc pops across the north, likely across the south Tue and Tues night closer to the deeper moisture feed with likely pops overs the wrn half of the local area Wed. Although thunder chcs will be there each day, don`t expect widespread thunderstorm coverage but kept chc thunder in the grids. Main concern will be locally heavy rainfall. Highs both days 80-85. Lows Tue night upr 60s-lwr 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday... Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue periodically through the day on Thursday. Most models are in agreement that a short break in the activity comes Friday morning, before a cold front approaches and sparks more showers and storms in the afternoon. GFS ensembles and most global guidance suggest a heavier band of precipitation setting up along coastal areas both Friday and Saturday afternoons, but a few more days of model consistency will be needed to iron out those details. Forecast confidence decreases markedly Friday and beyond, with the EURO solution sweeping a cold front through Saturday and the GFS/Canadian solutions stalling out the front over the area. The 12z GFS also notes several upper level disturbances meandering slowly around the mid-Atlantic region, in no hurry to make an exit. Both the GFS/Canadian would suggest continued rain chances through the end of the period, while the EURO would dry things out by Sunday. Depending on which side of the fence you stand on, Sunday into next week could either bring rain or sunshine. The temperature department brings mid 80s for Thursday afternoon. Thursday will run a few degrees lower than Friday, when morning dry time allows for a quicker warm up into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Leaned closer to the EURO on Sunday, cooling down afternoon highs into the lower and middle 80s. These may need to be adjusted upward if Saturday`s cold front does not clear the area. Overnight lows will remain steady in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 745 pm EDT Sunday... Mostly VFR conditions across the CWA and terminal regions. However there are scattered thunderstorms across the Piedmont area and extending through Hanover and Caroline counties through the Northern Neck onto the Maryland Eastern Shore. Strong showers and thunderstorms will soon affect SBY as storms move across the Chesapeake Bay. A cold front also lies north of SBY over Delaware and west through Maryland. The front will drop south across the Delmarva through tonight. The front will help to trigger thunderstorms into the late evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight as the front sags to the south and tropical moisture surges north from the Gulf and Atlantic. Outlook... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next few days with an influx of tropical moisture from the deep south. && .MARINE... As of 350 PM EDT Sunday... No headlines in the short term tonight thru Tue. SSW winds arnd Bermuda high pressure average 15 kt or less thru Mon night with seas mainly 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft. Winds become SE or E for Tue night into Wed night with speeds remaining mainly aob 15 kt. Seas 2-4 ft with 1-2 ft waves. Sctd tstms could be accompanied by gusty winds through Thu. && .CLIMATE... As of 345 AM EDT Sunday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/26 is 10.27" which now ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880). * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/26 is 8.63" (and this will increase as some additional rain has been recorded today). Through the 26th, this already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38" in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ023-024. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...BMS AVIATION...MPR/JEF MARINE...TMG CLIMATE...AKQ

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