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885
FXUS61 KAKQ 050730
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
330 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Off and on showers are expected to continue through Sunday night.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with
daily chances of showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...

Early morning wx analysis indicates Friday`s backdoor cold
front now pushing back N as a warm front, draped across the
southeastern portion of the FA as of 3am. This is evident not
only from the winds having turned to the SE, but also the
temperature gradient across the area this morning. Latest obs
show upper 60s in the SE with dewpoints also in the 60s and low
50s in the NW for both temps and dewpoints. As the front
continues northward, temps will remain stable in the SE and rise
a few degrees elsewhere. Aloft, a weak shortwave is traveling
across the region, aiding in the continuation of showers. Latest
radar shows widespread, light precip W of I-95 and isolated-
scattered showers elsewhere. Heavier showers near the RIC metro
have dropped 1.0-1.5" of rain tonight, spurring a Flood Advisory
just south of RIC. These heavier showers have weakened, though,
and moved to the ENE.

Shortwave energy within the SE flow aloft as well as the front
advancing N will lead to additional rounds of showers and tstorms
today. Expect the highest coverage will stay in the piedmont through
the morning, then expand to all areas W of the bay (~70% PoP) this
afternoon. Coverage is then expected to decrease later in the
evening and into tonight as the main axis of precip progresses E.
Chnc PoPs then continue E of I-95 through the night. Instability of
600-700 J/KG (mean HREF SCAPE) means there will be a decent chance
for thunder. Regarding QPF, expecting widespread 0.25-0.5" with
higher amounts of 1.0-1.5" within heavier showers/storms. Highs
today will be in the mid-upper 70s in the SE and upper 60s-low 70s
elsewhere. Remaining mild overnight with lows in the mid-60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.

- More humid Monday/Monday night with showers and storms
  areawide.

The front (as a warm front) will move ENE and north of the area
Sun into Sun evening, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These
factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions. However,
still expecting showers and some tstms to redevelop for later
Sun morning into Sun evening (PoPs 30-70%). PoPs will diminish
later Sun evening into Sun night. Highs on Sun will warm into
the 70s across the region. Lows Sun night in the lower to mid
60s.

Upper heights begin building back N for Mon with high temps
warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Despite the warmer
temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and
evening hours. Combined with an approaching shortwave from the
OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over
the higher terrain in the aftn, then slide eastward into Mon
evening/night. Mean LREF CAPE shows ~750 J/KG, but shear looks
to be rather weak. Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively
low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do
show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially
reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier
downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid to upper 60s,
so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer.
Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may
linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows Mon night mainly in
the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 410 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

-A summer-like pattern will bring unsettled conditions and
 above-normal temps Tuesday through Friday.

-There is the potential for severe weather mid to late week.

An unsettled, summertime pattern takes over from Tue through
Fri. A ridge aloft builds in by Tue aftn, then weakens slightly
starting Wed. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest stronger 500mb
flow of up to 50 kt by Wed aftn. Additionally, several waves of
weak shortwave energy will pass over the area. As of latest
guidance, the strongest of these looks to pass through Thu
ahead of an UL trough dropping into the Great Lakes. A stronger
system (i.e. cold front) will then cross the area Thu night into
Fri. These features along with plentiful daytime heating/instability
will allow for daily rounds of showers/tstms. Will be monitoring
this time period for severe weather given the support aloft and
steep mid-level lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities
have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest
at least a slight risk for severe weather Thu for the entire
area. Mainly dry weather will return for Sat. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to mid 80s Tue, in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed
and Thu, in the upper 70s to lower 80s Fri, and in the lower to
mid 70s Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...

IFR CIGs still prevail at RIC late tonight with MVFR/VFR at
SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG. The backdoor cold front that crossed the area
Friday will slowly lift back north as a warm front through the
period. CIGs improve to MVFR (with occasional periods of VFR)
as winds become SE-SSE after the front moves north of a given
terminal. It looks like IFR CIGs likely hang on until late
morning at RIC. In addition, showers will once again overspread
RIC tonight. Showers are likely at all terminals on Sun, with
isolated- scattered tstms possible during the aftn/evening.

Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions are expected at times from Sunday night-
Monday, due to an unsettled weather pattern. Sunday night should be
mostly dry, but more tstms are possible Mon aftn-late Mon evening.
A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through Thu, with
chances for storms each aftn/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 320 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- All Small Craft Advisories have been discontinued.

Strong sfc high pressure (>1030mb) is centered across Atlantic
Canada early this morning, with a stationary front in vicinity
of the NC Outer Banks slowly pushing N. E-SE winds prevail, but
the wind speeds have generally been under-performing over the
past 12 hrs and as such, have decided to cancel all remaining
SCA headlines. Conditions today will still be less than ideal
for boating as SE winds average 10-15 kt with gusts to ~20 kt
and waves of 2-3 ft in the Bay and 1-2 ft in the rivers. Seas
are 3-4ft.

The stationary front will continue to lift back N as a warm
front later today, with winds becoming more from the S at
10-15 kt tonight, and then to the SSW by Monday. Winds will
average ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt through the week so outside
of any tstms, conditions will be sub-SCA. The winds may increase
a bit Thu- Fri as the pressure gradient tightens with the
approach of a stronger cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 905 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Have extended a Coastal Flood Advisory for the northern Neck
  through Sunday night for widespread minor flooding.

- Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the bayside of
  the Maryland eastern shore, with an upgrade to a Coastal Flood
  Advisory likely for additional rises late Sunday into Monday
  morning.

The pattern of an elevated E wind shifting to the ESE to SE by
tonight favors going above ETSS guidance across the Northern
Neck. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect in
this area through Sunday night. A Coastal Flood Statement
continues for the bayside of the MD eastern shore to cover
nuisance flooding through late tonight. Water levels further
increase here later Sunday into early Monday with an upgrade to
a Coastal Flood Advisory likely as a SSE wind will tend to focus
the highest departures here by that time. A Coastal Flood
Statement is in effect for locations on the west shore of the
middle Bay to cover nuisance flooding for the next high tide
cycle. It still appears that other than locally moderate
flooding at Bishops Head, this event will peak in minor flood
category with the high tide cycle Sunday aftn into early Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM/TMG
LONG TERM...AM/TMG
AVIATION...AM/ERI
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...