Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261944 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 344 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains offshore through Monday. A trough of low pressure and several weak disturbances move across the region through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... Latest MSAS has the Bermuda high established off the coast with a lee trof just north of the area. Combo of the increasingly moist sw flow around the ridge and the s/w trof to the north will keep the convection going across the region this evening then slowly taper off and eventually end (across the south) after midnight. Highest pops (likely) across the north with chc pops to the south. No severe expected, but lclly hvy downpours/gusty winds will be possible. Warm and humid with lows upr 60s to lwr 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... Weak upper ridging aloft and southerly low-level flow will be the predominate weather pattern early next week. A weak backdoor front will be dropping south across the northern Delmarva late Sunday, stall then lift back north as a warm front Mon. Increasing PW`s (arnd 2 inches) along with a deep feed of Atlantic / GOM moisture keeps the threat of convection going through the period. Highest pops (likely) across the north on Sunday (closer to the frontal boundary) will shift to southern zones Mon/Tues closer to the moisture feed. It is too early to consider any flood watches, but something to consider over the next few days. Highs Sun/Tues in the low-mid 80s. Highs Mon in the upr 70s-lwr 80s. Lows in the upr 60s-lwr 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Medium range guidance is in general agreement through the middle of next week but modestly diverges with the position/timing of precipitation over the area into next weekend. What is certain is that Subtropical Storm Alberto, whose center of lowest pressure remains well to our west, will help create a southerly flow regime and efficient moisture transport for the middle-end of the week. Wednesday morning will start dry in the northern half, while southern VA and northern NC start to tap into increasing moisture. Showers are possible in the southern half of the area, spreading northward through the day on Wednesday. A heavier corridor of rainfall over the west was being suggested by the 06z GFS, but has since shifted that "bulls eye" further to the south. Still expect heavier pockets of wet weather, regardless of the uncertainty in exact placement. Rain will come in waves, much like we experienced the past few weeks. Timing will be best described as periods of showers and a few thunderstorms...continuing through much of the day Thursday. The Canadian model was discounted, due to its overdone "dry slotting" that the GFS/EURO are not depicting during this package. The 12z GFS aligns with the 00z EURO on Friday, indicating most areas could receive a break from the continued rain chances. Beyond that, Saturday is either soggy or sunny, depending on which model you choose to believe. GEFS/EPS ensembles break down coastal ridging, leading to more confidence in a wetter forecast. The GFS insists that a cold front will setup and sweep through the CWA during the afternoon. This would allow for convection to develop out ahead...but the EURO suggests the front would already be moving over the eastern shore by Saturday morning, slashing any opportunity for rain. Temperatures inland in the mid 80s should do it for most afternoons, with the exception of Friday. Additional sunshine and a drier day would edge most places into the upper 80s. Coastal regions will see low 80s for much of the middle-end of the week, again with Friday potentially being a bit warmer. Overnight lows will run some 5-8 degrees above normals for most of the area, hovering in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 2 PM EDT Saturday... VFR to start off the forecast period as sct-bkn CU continue to develop in the increasingly moist SW flow. Gusty SW winds btwn 15 to 20 kts will continue through the peak heating hrs this aftrn. High res data continues to show sct convection developing to the SW then overspreading the region after 21Z. Best chcs for any tstrms will be at RIC/SBY so went with a few hr period of VCTS for now. Tuff call for the sern TAF sites as to whether aby thunder occurs so held off with any pcpn for now. OUTLOOK... Sct convection expected through most of next week as a persistant pattern of moisture continues to flow north from the deep south. Periodic flight restrictions will be possible in/around tstms. $$ .MARINE... As of 340 PM EDT Saturday... No headlines in the short term tonight thru Mon, as SSW winds around Bermuda high pressure avg arnd 15 kt or less. Seas 2-4 ft with 1-2 ft waves. Winds become SE or E later Tue into Wed night, in advance of any remnant low fm Alberto (well inland to the west). Conditions to remain below SCA levels.
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&& .CLIMATE... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/25 is 10.25" which now ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880). * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/25 is 8.63" which already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38" in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...BMS AVIATION...MPR MARINE...TMG CLIMATE...AKQ

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