Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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324 FXUS61 KAKQ 230127 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 927 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the Southeast tonight into Friday as an upper level trough remains over New England. Low pressure moves east from the Mississippi Valley Saturday and tracks through the Carolinas Saturday night. Low pressure moves offshore Sunday as high pressure builds in from the north. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Current wv imagery shows a strong upper low lifting newd just east of Nova Scotia, with the primary longwave trough axis just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface, ~1030mb high pressure continues to build east from the Mississippi River Valley, with surface low pressure co-located with the upper system east of Nova Scotia. No significant changes needed for the overnight period. Surface high pressure will build across the mid-south through the Southeast Conus overnight, building across the region through Friday as the upper trough axis shift into New England. Passing mid-high clouds over the area tonight will yield to a gradually clearing sky late. Overnight low temperatures in the mid/upper 20s NW to the low 30s SE. A shortwave trough is progged to drop sewd from the Ern Great Lakes through the Nrn Mid-Atlantic Friday. Mostly sunny early in the morning, with sct-bkn cu developing by aftn. Once again, breezy and unseasonably cool with high temperatures in the mid 40s NE to the low 50s S and SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A 1040mb surface high in vicinity of Hudson Bay will build into the Mid-Atlantic Friday night in the wake of the upper trough. This will allow lows to again fall into the mid 20s NW to low 30s SE under a mostly clear sky. The high remain anchored well N of the region Saturday. One shortwave trough is progged to drop across New England Saturday, as another trough pushes through the mid-Mississippi Valley toward the Tennessee Valley. Maximum temperatures will be Saturday will remain cool with 1000-850mb thickness values ranging from 1290-1300m. Forecast highs are generally in the low/mid 40s W to mid/upper 40s farther E (but locally cooler at the coast with onshore flow). Increasing clouds with low pressure approaching from the W. Drier air associated with the high should hold off pcpn for much of the day, with high chc/likely PoPs arriving into the SW counties later in the aftn. Saturday night will be the main event as low pressure tracks across the Carolinas. A rain/snow mix inland should quickly change over to all snow except for SE coastal areas with rain or a rain/snow mix. Lows 30-32F except mid 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. 22/12z GFS/NAM/ECMWF have suppressed the system farther S, which does limit accumulations. The latest forecast has 1-3" of snow SW of a FVX-EMV line (and along and W of I-95), bordered by a corridor of 1" or less up to the I-64 corridor from Williamsburg to Louisa (including RIC metro). QPF is generally a few hundredths to 0.1" from the I-64 corridor, to 0.25-0.5" SW of the FVX-EMV line. 12z data has the system quickly departing offshore with PoPs rapidly diminishing early Sunday as cool high pressure builds in from the N. Remaining well below normal with highs in the 40s along with a gusty NNE wind and decreasing clouds. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Long term forecast period characterized by gradually warming and moderating temperatures, courtesy of building mid-level ridging over the eastern third of the conus. The ridge will build quickly early next week, then linger over the region through much of the mid to late week period, in between broad upper level troughs lingering over the intermountain west and just north of Bermuda. Resultant surface high pressure remains pinned nearly in place along the eastern seaboard Late Tuesday through Thursday, bringing only some intermittent clouds and decidedly more tranquil sensible wx. Next chance of rain comes with a quick moving northern stream system late next week. Below normal temperatures to begin the period (highs in the u40s along the coast to low 50s inland on Monday) warm back to normal by midweek, and just above normal (60s to near 70 inland, highs in the 50s to near 60 along the coast) by late week.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong low pressure is centered E-NE of Nova Scotia as of 00z, with high pressure centered over the Mississippi River Valley. NW winds are becoming less gusty after sunset, but should continue 5-7kt overnight. Beck of SCT-BKN mid and high clouds expected through early Fri morning, as a weak trough slides across the area in NW flow aloft. The sky should be mostly sunny Friday morning, with sct-bkn cu developing Friday aftn as a stronger trough drops sewd across the region. NW winds should become gusty once again after sunrise, with gusts to around 20kt. Outlook: High pressure builds N of the region Friday night into Saturday. Low pressure approaches from the W Saturday and pushes across the Carolinas Saturday night. This could produce flight restrictions with a mix of rain and snow at PHF/ORF/ECG and light snow at RIC. High pressure becomes anchored over New England, with VFR conditions expected from Monday through the middle of next week. && .MARINE... Late this aftn, low pressure was located off the New England coast. That low will continue to track northeast tonight, and move into the nrn Atlc waters on Fri. NW winds will continue to gradually diminish tonight into Sat, as that low moves farther away and high pressure builds down into the region fm the NNW. So, SCA`s will linger into Fri morning for the Ches Bay and coastal waters. Another low pressure system will track acrs the Carolinas and off the coast late Sat into Sun morning. Then, expect stronger NE winds and higher waves/seas fm later Sun morning thru Mon night, as strong high pressure builds acrs SE Canada into New England. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...AJZ/MAM MARINE...TMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.