-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
303
FXUS61 KAKQ 271052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
652 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will shift southwards today across the
Eastern Shore and northern counties. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected again today, with some being strong
to severe. As this front lifts north away from the area, expect
daily diurnal rain chances Saturday through early next week.
Well above normal temperatures will continue through next week,
with a possible frontal passage early/mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 415 AM EDT Friday...

- Heat Advisory in effect for areas between Richmond and NE NC.

- A backdoor cold front to bring some relief from the heat to
  the northern and Eastern Shore counties.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop today. A few
  storms could be strong to severe, with isolated instances of
  flash-flooding possible.

A backdoor cold front currently draped across the Eastern Shore into
northern VA will continue to sag southward today. The main question
will be exactly how far south this boundary makes it. There will be
a sharp temperature gradient, with temperatures in the low to mid
90s to the south of the front and 80s north of the front. If the
boundary drops further than expected, some areas will not come close
to reaching Heat Advisory criteria due to the combination of the
slightly modified airmass behind the front and abundant cloud cover.
As of now, areas north of the Richmond Metro look to be the lucky
ones with the slightly cooler airmass, so have not expanded the Heat
Advisory any further north. Temperatures in the MD Eastern Shore
will struggle to reach 80 degrees as thick low-level stratus will
plague that area today. A Heat Advisory is in effect from Richmond
through NE NC today for heat indices climbing quickly to 105F+ this
afternoon.

This boundary will provide continue to provide a lifting mechanism
for storm development this afternoon and evening, so scattered storm
coverage is expected with the highest coverage expected to be in the
W/NW in the afternoon/evening hours. Due to the strong surface
heating expected south of the boundary, DCAPE values will be be
between roughly 500-1300 J/kg which could produce a few strong
isolated downbursts within any convection that does develop this
afternoon and evening. As these storms decay, they will shoot out
outflows, which will act as a trigger for additional convective
development. SPC has a majority of the forecast area (excluding SE
VA, NE NC, and Eastern Shore) in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for
severe weather today, with damaging wind the main threat with
isolated large hail possible. The steering flow for these storms
will be light which will allow for slow storm motions. The slow
storm motion combined with PW values of 2"+ along and adjacent to
the front will create an environment that is favorable for locally
heavy rainfall. WPC has placed most of the forecast area in a
Marginal ERO to account for the possibility of isolated flash-
flooding. Where the front ends up stalling will be where the best
chance for flooding is.

As daytime heating wanes this evening, convection will follow suit,
though a few stronger storms after sunset cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 70s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Heat continues along with a somewhat unsettled pattern with
  daily, diurnal isolated storms possible.

The front will start to lift back to the north Friday night into
Saturday, so while afternoon/evening thunderstorms are still
possible, they will not be as high in coverage as today due to the
lack of upper level support and a triggering mechanism. With the
weakened upper ridge still across the region through the weekend,
above normal temperatures are expected again on Saturday and Sunday
with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Heat indices will range between
97-104F, though some areas could see a brief period of 105F+ heat
indices mainly no Saturday so a Heat Advisory may be required.
Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 70s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Hot weather continues into early next week, with chance of
  afternoon thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

- Possible frontal passage Tuesday into early Wednesday.

While temperatures early next week will not be quite as high as what
we saw this past week, highs will still reach the low to mid 90s
Monday and Tuesday, with heat indices between 98-104F. We will
continue to monitor any trends in the heat, as subtle differences in
the temperatures and dew points could lead to some areas reaching
Heat Advisory criteria. A cold front will approach the region on
Tuesday, with moisture pooling ahead of it and PWs approaching 2.0"+
early next week which may result in a heavy rain threat with any
diurnally driven convective activity. Steering flow does pick up
some by early next week, which will hopefully help with the flooding
threat. As the front moves through Tuesday afternoon into early
Wednesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
ahead of and along the boundary. While temperatures are still
forecast to be in the around 90 degrees, dew points will be trending
downwards behind the front which will drop the heat index well below
Heat Advisory criteria. A secondary front is progged to push through
Thursday morning which could potentially bring dew points down into
the upper 60s by late next week, making for an almost comfortable
environment in comparison to this past weeks heat wave.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 652 AM EDT Friday...

Low CIGS are present at RIC and SBY, but could are lurking just
north of PHF and ORF. Whether or not these lower CIGS will make it
that far south still remains up in the air, but have decided not to
include any mention of IFR CIGS for now. We will continue to monitor
this over the next few hours and issue amendments as necessary. ECG
should be far enough south to remain VFR though the TAF period.
IFR/LIFR CIGS will remain in place at SBY through tonight, but
as the frontal boundary draped across the northern area lifts
northward today, CIGS should clear out at RIC ahead of
convection. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
developing tomorrow afternoon, with the highest confidence at
RIC though both ORF and PHF could see development near the
terminals. Winds are mostly light and variable tonight, becoming
SE 5-10 kt by the afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are primarily expected into next week
as the front lifts back north. However, late afternoon/evening
storms are possible every day into early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 415 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA, but with elevated E-NE winds along and north
  of a backdoor cold front today.

- Generally benign marine conditions Saturday-Monday (outside of
  convection), with SCA conditions possible Tuesday/early
  Wednesday in association with a stronger cold front.

The latest analysis indicates high pressure across New England,
pushing a backdoor cold front south across the eastern shore and
into the middle Bay zones. Winds are E-NE at 10-15 kt with gusts
to around 20 kt in the wake of the boundary, while remaining
light SW across the southern coastal waters. Winds have shifted
to the E-NE down into the lower Bay and lower James, but the
speeds are much lighter and the boundary may stall in this
region today. Seas have increased to ~4 ft across the northern
coastal waters, but are still only ~2 ft to the south. Some
marine fog is possible today, but there should be enough wind to
preclude dense fog. However, tonight into Saturday, as the
boundary drifts back to the N, may see some dense marine fog for
the coastal waters N of Parramore Island. Winds will shift back
to the SSW overnight and on Saturday, at around 10-15 kt. NWPS
indicates some swell Saturday, which may keep seas a bit
elevated at 3-4 ft. Another very weak boundary drops through
Sunday, briefly turning winds to the NW, and then becoming
onshore by aftn. By late Monday night/Tuesday, the gradient is
expected to tighten in advance of a stronger cold front, enough
that low-end SCAs will be possible for the Bay/rivers.

A Moderate Rip Current Risk has been introduced for today
across the northern beaches given onshore flow and waves of 3-4
ft, and this will likely persist on Saturday for at least the
northern waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ080>083-087>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-523>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...LKB