Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241758 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 158 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks the local area today through tonight...then will be slow to move away from the coast Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1000 AM EDT Tuesday... Surface low pressure is now forming over West Central SC and has a warm front that extends ENE to near ILM NC. Ahead of the front is a considerable rain shield that continues to push NW from the Atlantic into the Central Appalachians with light to occasionally moderate rain. This rain shield will continue to make slow progress northward as it initially encounters some drier air, which is still in place over the Northern Neck and much of the Delmarva. But this air will saturate and the rain will spread over this after this afternoon. The main adjustment this period was to lower day time highs as the clouds and rain will keep temperatures mainly steady in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures may actually climb a degree or two this evening once the rain ends as the flow briefly turns out of the south. Expect rain amounts of 0.50" - 1" with the rain today. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday... Surface low will move to the coastal plain in SE VA-NE NC tonight...w/ main axis of RA shifting to the N (after this eve). PoPs lowering to 20-50% most areas after midnight...though remaining 50-70% on the lower MD ern shore until late. Trough aloft slowly tracks across the FA Wed resulting in VRB clouds- mostly cloudy conditions w/ continuing 30-60% PoPs (SHRAS). Lows tonight in the l50s NW to the u50s SE. Highs Wed from the u60s NW to the l70s SE. Lingering clouds...20-30% PoP Wed eve then drying out thereafter Wed night. Models showing a dry/mild day Thu...though increasing clouds possible from the SW in the afternoon ahead of developing lo pres invof lower MS Valley. Lows Wed night from the m40s NW to the l50s SE. Highs Thu from the u60s to l70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Sunday... A couple of s/w`s progged to round the base of the long wave trof and pass across the srn Mid Atlantic states. Models differ a bit with the first system late Thurs night and Fri. GFS wetter and a bit farther north while the ECMWF has a more southerly track with the best lift across the Carolinas. Will split the difference and go with chc showers for now. Second one appears to be along a weak frontal passage Sat. Limited moisture noted here so went with slight chc late day pops for now. High pressure builds into the area from the NW Sun into Mon. Highs mid 60s to lwr 70s except upr 60s to mid 70s Mon. Lows mid 40s to lwr 50s except 50 to 55 Mon. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday... East to southeasterly flow continues across the region this afternoon ahead of the the developing low over South Carolina. The ceilings have been slowly lowering as the rain band has moved northward, but along the coast the ceilings have remained in mvfr range around 2k - 3k ft. Farther inland however the ceilings have dropped lower to ifr range, but they have remained just to the sw of RIC. Guidance still suggest that as the rain moves northward and the easterly flow continues that ceilings should drop to ifr levels across the region. So as the low approaches the area this afternoon and evening will forecast that the ceilings do drop to ifr levels for at least a period of time. The warm front lifts northward as the low tracks into the area this evening. The warm front should slowly move north along the coast and all taf sites except RIC should move into the warm sector. This usually will bring ceilings up, but the guidance is slow to do that waiting until Wed after 12z to show improvement. So have gone against guidance a little bit to improve ceilings after 6z in the south and slowly improve conditions heading north by around 12z. But again confidence is not very high in that part of the forecast. By Wednesday, the upper level low will move over the area which should allow the ceilings to rise to at least mvfr levels if not vfr with some scattered showers in the area. Outlook...Wed night - Sunday... The upper low departs Wed night as high pressure noses into the area. The system will impact the region on Thursday night with some showers and mvfr conditions. A second cold front swings across the the region on Saturday with vfr conditions returning on Sunday as high pressure builds into the area. && .MARINE... As of 425 AM EDT Tuesday... Early this morning, high pressure was centered well off the New England coast, while low pressure was located over ern TN and nrn GA. Low pressure will slowly lift ENE and acrs the area today thru Wed. E or SE winds 10-20 kt early this morning, will increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt today into early tonight, due to a tightening of the pressure gradient. Waves on the Bay will build to 3-5 ft (near 6 ft at the mouth of the Bay), and seas will build to 7-10 ft. Winds/waves/seas will diminish/subside tonight into Wed morning, as the pressure gradient relaxes. SCAs are currently in effect for all local waters thru this evening or late tonight. SCAs will last thru late Wed night for the coastal waters, due to seas remaining elevated. Also have a High Surf Advisory in effect for OBX Currituck, as nearshore waves expected to reach 8 ft. Broad low pressure lifts NNE of the region late Wed/Wed evening with SSW winds 5-15 kt, becoming NW in the wake of the low Wed night into Thu morning. Seas over the coastal waters should fall below 5 ft Thu morning. After a brief lull midweek, the next low pressure system then impacts the region Fri. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...ESS MARINE...JDM/TMG

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