Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 192018 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 418 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain near the local area this afternoon, bringing periodic showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for additional localized heavy rainfall. Somewhat drier air arrives for the second half of the weekend as the upper level low pressure system weakens. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... Flood Watch remains in effect through 6pm today for much of the area... The anticipated (though slow) breakdown of the pattern responsible for this recent widespread RA event is now evolving as the flow aloft becoming stronger from the SSW. Finally seeing moisture axis shifting E...w/ RA winding down W of I 95...while arriving along the coast. The FFA will run through 22Z/19 (6pm) though appears that the heaviest RA now shifting to the E (and at least over most central/scentral counties). However...continued excessive runoff (and flooding) remain a high threat even w/o additional rainfall (w/ numerous FLW in effect through about 22Z/19. Still expecting SHRAS/ISOLD-SCT tstms E of I 95 this eve...winding down in coverage and intensity after 22Z/19-00Z/20. Weakening trough aloft will be tracking across the FA (starting) later tonight...potentially w/ ISOLD pcpn but mainly just keeping cloudiness in place. Lows in the u60s-around 70F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... Trough aloft exits early Sun morning. Sun will be warm and moderately humid w/ VRB clouds-partly sunny conditions. Will have PoPs 20-30% (highest E of I 95 and primarily for afternoon/eve SHRAS/tstms). Highs in the m-u80s...except l80s at the beaches. By Mon...with flow aloft shifting from the W to the WSW...expecting increasing moisture ahead of the next approaching systems from the S and W. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy w/ PoPs by afternoon rising to 30-50% inland in the afternoon...10-30% toward the ern shore. SPC has marginal risk SVR for N and central areas for possible strong stms. Highs in the 70s at the coast to the m80s inland. Warm front pulls N of the region Mon night (w/ possible SCT SHRAS-tstms)...then sfc hi pres off the SE CONUS coast remains in control Tue. Lo pres and its accompanying cold front tracks through the Midwest- OH Valley Tue. VRB clouds-partly sunny Tue w/ mainly diurnal PoPs (20-40%) (Tue) ahead of that system. Lows Mon night in the l60s on the lower MD ern shore to the m-u60s elsewhere. Highs Tue from the m-u70s at the coast to 80-85F inland. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Saturday... A respite from the wet wx pattern suggested by most extended models for mid-late in the upcoming week. Just enough of a NW flow aloft suggests that drying will take place after Wed and last into next weekend. Lo pres passing by N of the region Tue night-Wed will push a cold front (possibly accompanied by SHRAS/tstms) E and S of the local area. Hi pres is then expected to build into the region for Thu-Fri. By next Sat...a return flow from the SSW to set up potentially resulting in increasing moisture/gradual rise in PoPs. Lows Tue night in the m-u60s. Highs Wed in the 70s-around 80F at the coast to the m80s inland. Lows Wed night in the l-m60s. Highs Thu from the u70s-m80s. Lows Thu night mainly 60-65F. Highs Fri 80-85F...70s at the immediate coast. Highs Sat in the m-u80s inland...u70s-l80s at the coast. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday... A large area of light to moderate rain (with embedded heavier showers) was impacting RIC as of 18z Saturday. The area of rain will progress E/SE through tonight. There is the potential for brief IFR flight restrictions in the heavier showers. High-res guidance indicates that the area of rain will start weakening during the evening hours. Scattered showers will likely impact PHF/ORF/ECG/SBY through 20-21z before the steadier rain moves in. Rain should end in RIC around 00z and in the southeastern terminals a few hours later. MVFR/VFR conditions exist at all sites as of 18z. Expect the MVFR/VFR conditions (except for IFR in heavy rain) to continue through at least 06z Sunday. Ceilings are likely to lower to at least MVFR overnight/Sun AM, with the possibility of IFR cigs at SBY from 06-14z Sunday. OUTLOOK...It will become drier on Sunday, though some patchy low clouds may bring flight restrictions Sunday morning, with some brief restrictions possible Sun aftn with scattered tstms. Rain chances continue through early next week, as mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms are possible on Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE...
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As of 415 PM EDT Saturday... Went ahead and cancelled the SCA from Parramore Island to Cape Charles as seas will likely remain around 4 ft through Sunday AM. S winds turning to the SW tonight will lead to a shorter fetch over the coastal waters. Therefore, there is high confidence that seas in this zone will not exceed the SCA threshold of 5 ft. Winds were out of the south at around 15 kt over the ocean, with 10 kt winds over the bay. Seas are around 4 ft south of Parramore Island, with 4-5 ft seas north of Parramore Island to the MD/DE border. Waves were 1-2 ft on the bay. S winds at 10-15 kt this evening will become SW late tonight through Sunday. Winds remain SW at 10-15 kt through the evening hours on Sunday. Another frontal boundary will drop into northern portions of the area late Sunday night-Monday AM, but NE winds will remain around 10 kt over the northern waters. Thus, am expecting seas to remain at or below 4 ft on Monday, with waves from 1-2 ft. The frontal boundary lifts back north of the region Monday night-Tuesday AM, with 10-15 kt SW winds expected through Wednesday before another frontal boundary passes through the region Wed PM-Thurs. Seas are expected to be around 2-4 ft from Tue-Fri, with waves of 1-2 ft.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... As of 1000 AM EDT Friday... Flood warnings continue for the James River basin. New warnings have been issued for Lawrenceville...Rawlings and Stony Creek on the Meherrin and Nottoway rivers. Recent heavy rain along with the expectation of more heavy rain has resulted in a forecast of minor to moderate flooding. See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for more details. && .CLIMATE... * RIC set new daily precipitation records both Thu 5/16 (2.67") and Fri 5/17 (3.86"). The monthly total through 5/17 is now 8.16" (already ranks as 7th wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1880) * SBY set a new daily precipitation record Fri 5/17 (4.01"). This is also the greatest daily rainfall total for any day during the month of May as well. The monthly total through the 17th is now 7.89" (already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record). (precipitation records date back to 1906) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>025. NC...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012-013-030. VA...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ERI/LKB MARINE...ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...

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