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000
FXUS61 KALY 082036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
336 PM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend is in store through the end of the week, with
temperatures expected to be well above normal values. Showers
will be possible Thursday into Friday at times along an approaching
cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Early afternoon water vapor shows the cold upper trough that
plagued us with chilly temperatures over the weekend exiting
east of the Gulf of Maine, with height rises occurring over the
local area in its wake. Another northern stream disturbance
associated with an upper jet max is moving SE between Georgian
Bay and James Bay, with a band of high clouds filtering into
central and eastern NY ahead of it. Some virga occurring with
these clouds, but a very dry column was sampled on the 12Z KALY
sounding. Some lower stratus are being observed beneath the high
clouds as well. Skies over eastern NY/western New England are
clear, but the high clouds will continue to filter into the area
from the west later this afternoon into the evening.

This evening, some of the light snow associated with the
encroaching clouds may reach the ground over the western
Adirondacks, but with little to no accumulation expected.
Thereafter, forecast soundings show the mid/upper level moisture
exiting, while lower levels begin to saturate. A weak boundary
will pass through tonight, turning lower level winds westerly
and adding some lake moisture. With the absence of ice crystals,
any precip that is able to form may be in the form of drizzle
or freezing drizzle 06-12Z. Models barely generate any QPF so
expect any activity to be light/patchy, and PoPs are confined to
the western Mohawk Valley/western Adirondacks. Will address any
FZDZ issues with SPS overnight, if necessary, and do not plan
to mention potential in the HWO as it appears to be low
probability/low impact. Elsewhere, partly to mostly cloudy skies
can be expected, with lows mainly in the 20s. Most locations
are expected to reach their low temperature between 00-06Z with
the temperature rising thereafter as clouds spread in and a
light southerly flow develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Tuesday, WNW low level flow develops in the wake of the northern
stream disturbance. Some degree of moisture advection off the lakes
may keep clouds and patchy drizzle around for the western Mohawk
Valley/western Adirondacks in the morning. Height rises will build
in for later in the day, with valleys seeing clouds scattering out.
The clouds may be more prolonged in the higher terrain. Modest
diurnal mixing in the wake of the disturbance should boost high
temps 5-15F compared with Monday. Highs are expected to range from
the mid-30s in the southern Adirondacks to the mid-50s in the mid-
Hudson Valley.

Tuesday night, a ~1033 mb bubble high builds in, which should result
in good radiational cooling conditions. Depending on how much low
level moisture mixes out during the day, some fog is even possible
overnight.

Wednesday, the surface high shifts offshore as a midlevel ridge
crests over the region. Expect a good deal of sunshine through the
day. Model soundings are showing mixing depths somewhat less than
expected, possibly due to low level trajectories emanating from the
high in the north Atlantic. The mixing depths may be a bit
underdone, so have sided toward the milder ECMWF MOS as SSW 925 mb
winds should help compressional warming at bit in the Capital
District and Mid Hudson Valley.

Wednesday night into Thursday, SW flow strengthens through most of
the column. The leading edge of height falls and moisture plume with
PWATs 0.75-1.00 inches approaches the area. A few showers could work
their way into the western Adirondacks as early as late Wednesday
night and Thursday morning, with a bit better chance by the
afternoon. Mid and high clouds are forecast to spread into most of
the forecast area by Wednesday night, leading to a mild night with
lows mainly in the 30s. Areas from the Capital District south and
east stand the best chance for thinning/breaks in the mid and high
clouds during the afternoon, which would likely result in deep
mixing, compressional warming, and warm temperatures. Will keep high
temps toward NBM values for now, which would likely bring the first
60 degree day to southern/valley areas since Christmas Day.
These forecast temps are near 20F above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
We start the long term period with a cold front off to the northwest
and our region still within the warm sector Thursday night. Because
of this, temps will be fairly mild overnight with lows in the low to
upper 40s. Precipitation associated with the front will start moving
into the area during the late evening into the overnight period but
generally stay in the southern Adirondacks. Then as a strong piece
of upper energy dives out of Canada, the front should get pushed
through the region Friday morning. Moisture may be somewhat limited
with the frontal passage, especially since the best energy will be
displaced to the north, limiting the potential for heavy rainfall.
Have therefore kept highest PoPs across the western Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley, decreasing as the front drops south.

The front will be south of the region by Friday evening with mostly
dry weather expected for the weekend. There is an isolated chance
for showers on Saturday as the upper trough transitions east.
However, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and dry conditions.
Additionally, we will once again shift to cooler weather with highs
in the 30s to upper 40s on Saturday but only reaching the low 30s to
low 40s on Sunday. Winds will also be breezy out of the northwest
leading to wind chills in the 20s and 30s both days.

Seasonable temperatures return for Monday as ridging builds into the
region.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18z/Tue...Following a passing high cirrus cloud or two this
afternoon, a weak disturbance will move across the region tonight.
Patchy clouds will pass across the terminals but bases should remain
above 3000 feet for continued VFR conditions. Some isolated areas of
precipitation are possible, but confidence remains low this activity
impacts the terminals, so will not include VCSH in the TAF.

Stratocumulus clouds will be around for Tuesday morning in the wake
of the disturbance but ceilings should remain VFR at KALB/KPOU/KGFL.
At KPSF, borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings are possible as a moist
upslope flow develops.

Wind will be mainly out of the west to northwest this afternoon
(except southeast at KGFL) at 10 kt or less, then go light and
variable tonight. Wind will then pick up out of the west-northwest
at 7-14 kt with gusts 20-25 kt Tuesday morning. With the light and
variable wind tonight, borderline LLWS is possible as winds at 2000
feet increase to between 30-40 kt from the west to northwest. Will
introduce LLWS at all terminals starting at 04z/Tue.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A warming trend is expected into the midweek period, with
temperatures well above normal expected Tuesday through Friday.
Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing Wednesday
morning through the end of the week, which should lead to any
snow cover melting at lower elevations, and the dense snowpack
over the higher terrain ripening with some melt-off possible.
Periodic light showers are possible Thursday into Friday, but
QPF looks light at this time, with generally a quarter inch or
less expected. The light QPF is expected to mitigate widespread
flood concerns, with MMEFS not highlighting any potential for
flooding at this time. However, modest within-bank rises are
possible into the midweek period, and river ice may break up on
rivers that are still ice-covered. Ice breakup could lead to
some ice jams, and localized flooding cannot be ruled out.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Thompson
NEAR TERM...Thompson
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...JLV
AVIATION...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...Thompson