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000
FXUS61 KALY 240542
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
142 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and breezy conditions for Friday with some isolated
showers. After a brief period of dry weather Friday night and
early Saturday, another fast moving system will bring showers
for late Saturday into Saturday night. Fair and warm conditions
are currently expected for Sunday into Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 130 AM EDT...Vigorous short wave is overhead. It will move
off to our east overnight along with its associated cold front.
Conditions will become breezy as the pressure gradient tightens
up on the back side of the system. Variably cloudy conditions
with cyclonic flow across the region. Expecting temperatures to
drop into the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday-Friday night, cyclonic flow and cold air aloft, along
with a surface trough passing southward through the region,
should favor quite a bit of cloud coverage once deeper mixing
commences in the late morning through afternoon.
Isolated/scattered showers and sprinkles will also be possible,
especially across higher terrain areas. Gusty NW winds may reach
25-35 mph at times. Highs mainly upper 60s to lower 70s in
valleys, and upper 50s to mid 60s across higher terrain.
Clearing and cool for Friday night, with lows mainly in the 40s.

Saturday-Saturday night, clouds rapidly increase from NW to SE
Saturday morning, with some showers developing in the afternoon,
especially across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley
extending into the Lake George/Saratoga region. Areas south and
east of Albany may remain dry until closer to sunset. Then for
Saturday night, showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will be
possible as a frontal system approaches from the northwest.
Locally heavy downpours will be possible as PWAT`s climb with
1.25-1.5 inches. Highs Saturday mainly in the lower 70s in
valleys, and 60s across higher terrain. Max temps may occur
during the late morning/early afternoon hours before cooling
back into the 60s once showers develop. Lows Saturday night
mainly in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday, frontal system should move slowly south and east across
the region, with most likely timing during the morning hours.
However, there is some uncertainty whether the front slows down
its south/east progression. If so, isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms could linger into the afternoon. For now,
will confine most PoPs to the morning hours. Highs mainly

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night-Monday, weak high pressure should bring fair and
warm conditions, assuming aforementioned frontal system shifts
far enough to our south and east. Lows Sunday night mainly in
the 50s. Highs Monday should reach upper 70s to lower 80s in
valleys, and lower/mid 70s across higher terrain.

Monday night-Thursday, warm front looks to approach from the
south and west late Monday night into Tuesday. Some form of MCS
activity could affect the region during this time with a few
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The front should lift north
of the region by Wednesday, before a cold front approaches from
the northwest for Wednesday night into Thursday. The air south
of the warm front could be quite warm to hot. For now, have
indicated max temps in valley areas reaching 85-90 for
Wednesday, with lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights mainly in the
50s and 60s. Cooler for Thursday, but still possibly above
normal depending on the speed of the main cold front, with
highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Wind shift pre frontal trough has tracked through all areas except
KPOU, where the wind will shift around 09z or a little after. There
are a few showers north of KPOU along the wind shift boundary that
are dissipating because the wind shift boundary is so weak.

There is an area of midlevel clouds around the Great Lakes that is
tracking into eastern NY and will affect KGFL, KALB and KPSF until
around or shortly after sunrise.  After sunrise, the leading edge of
the drier air mass will trigger just some isolated showers with not
enough coverage to acknowledge in TAFs.  Ceilings will lower to 3000-
3500 feet but the best chance at ceilings at or below 3000 feet is
at KPSF, where a TEMPO for a 3000 foot ceiling is included before
and around sunrise.

Otherwise, once the dry air begins to spread across our region later
in the morning through the afternoon, clouds will tend to decrease
in coverage and by late afternoon just scattered coverage.
Visibilities should be predominantly VFR, unless an isolated shower
occurs.

South winds at KPOU and KGFL will become west by 09Z. Then west to
northwest winds at 10 Kt everywhere through mid morning. Northwest
winds by afternoon at 10 to 20 Kt with gusts over 20 Kt through the
afternoon, then diminishing to north to northwest at less than 10 Kt
this evening.

Outlook...

Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Memorial Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind gusts 25-35 mph possible tonight into Friday...

A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to
portions of the region this evening. Cool and breezy conditions
will follow for Friday, with some isolated showers. After a
brief period of dry weather Friday night and early Saturday,
another fast moving frontal system will bring showers for late
Saturday into Saturday night. Fair and warm conditions are
currently expected for Sunday into Memorial Day.

South to southwest winds will increase to 10-20 mph this
evening, with gusts up to 35 mph possible. In the wake of the
cold front, winds will shift into the west to northwest at 10-20
mph with gusts of 25-35 mph late tonight into Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Fair weather Friday into Saturday with another round of wet
weather is expected Saturday afternoon and night as another
fast moving low pressure system approaches and moves across the
region.

Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL