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000
FXUS61 KALY 132016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
416 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The stretch of tranquil weather will continue through Tuesday.
A widespread rainfall appears likely on Wednesday with chilly
and blustery conditions by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A few high clouds tracking through the region will exit this
evening and the sky will be mostly clear to clear through most
of the night. Winds are expected to be light to nearly calm, so
temperatures should be able to fall to the 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper low will retreat into eastern Canada and a weakening cold
front with very little moisture will track through our region.
Boundary layer southwest flow along with a partly to mostly
sunny sky should help temperatures warm into the mid 60s to
around 70 but 50s to lower 60s northern areas. Any isolated
showers would be in northern areas Monday afternoon.

Cooling and clearing expected Monday night but with some steady
boundary layer winds from the west to northwest and boundary
layer temperatures cooling considerably, some lake effect
clouds could extend into the southern Adirondacks and parts of
the western and central Mohawk Valley. Guidance is not showing
much cloud cover as winds will not be strong and will be more
west than northwest but any clouds off the lakes could prevent
temperatures from falling as much as they could into early
Tuesday morning.

The core of coldest air is over our region Tuesday with very
light winds expected. Based on mixing potential and the
potential for some scattered to broken clouds in some areas,
highs in the mid 50s to around 60 but lower 50s higher terrain.

Wednesday morning should be tranquil and dry as warm advection
strengthens.  Upper energy diving out of Canada will approach
through Wednesday afternoon and rapid warm advection along with
deep moisture advection ahead of the upper energy should result
in clouds and precipitation arriving in western areas perhaps
by midday and the rest of our region through the afternoon. Most
areas will see the start of a period of soaking rain by late
afternoon, that will continue into Wednesday night. Highs
Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Our intensifying parent trough over the Great Lakes within the
northern jet stream looks to phase with a southern stream
shortwave and become negatively tilted Wednesday night. Strong
consensus between the NCEP model suite and the ECMWF and CMC-NH
continues with guidance suggesting this interaction results in
rapid cyclogenesis of a coastal low off the Carolinas. Strong
isentropic lift ahead of the advancing coastal low continues
into Wednesday evening with the south-southeast 850mb jet
strengthening to 40-50kts. This should allow widespread rainfall
to continue and expand into western New England. Guidance
generally shows the coastal low tracking northward overnight
and moving into eastern New England which would spare most of
eastern NY/western New England from the brunt of this "bomb"
cyclone.

The cold front from the parent trough looks to quickly advance
eastward through NY Wednesday night which should push
widespread/steady rain out of area with just some lingering
showers in its wake. However, guidance continues to hint that
the advancing cold front could enter into New England in time to
meet up with the coastal low which could tighten the baroclinic
zone over western New England and enhance rainfall amounts
there. The latest WPC QPF guidance also hints at this
enhancement as well. Still too early to give specifics but it`s
something worth monitoring. Otherwise, most of the rainfall
should transition to showers late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning with total QPF amounts ranging 0.75 to 1.50" with
locally higher amounts on the eastern Catskills which tend to
see terrain enhanced amounts in this flow regime. This should be
a very progressive system with most of the rain falling between
18z Wednesday and 12z Thursday.

As our coastal low continues to "bomb" out by Thursday morning
(intensifying from ~1005mb 12z Wed to ~975mb by 12z Thurs), the
upper level parent trough becomes a closed 500mb low over the
Gulf of Maine with the coastal low becoming the dominant surface
feature. Eastern NY and western New England on Thursday should
experience a colder and windy day with wrap around showers. High
temperatures should be 5-10 degrees cooler than normal, only
rising a few degrees above the morning low temperatures into the
low to mid 50s, thanks to a tightening pressure gradient
between the departing coastal low and strengthening high
pressure from the TN Valley. Deep boundary layer mixing in the
cold air advection regime should lead to windy conditions with
westerly sustained winds ranging 10-18mph and gusts up to
25-35mph (highest in the terrain). While some lake enhanced
showers are possible, the wrap around cold air at 850mb, as per
the GEFS, does not deviate from normal, so the delta-T between
Lake Ontario and the 850mb isotherms only barely meets the ~13C
criteria.

Breezy conditions look to continue into Thursday night as sufficient
pressure rises continue over our region behind the closed low
in the Canadian Maritimes. While the strong west-northwest flow
should maintain the cold air advection regime, overnight lows
should be around normal, falling into the mid 30s to low 40s,
due to breezy winds. A strengthening upper ridging should build
into the Northeast on Friday with surface high pressure taking
control of the region which should weaken winds. Even still, the
cool air mass should remain in place with high temperatures
once again about 5 degrees below normal in the 50s. The upper
level ridge axis moves overhead Friday night leading to clearing
skies and a good radiational cooling set-up. Expecting Saturday
morning lows should be quite chilly with all areas falling into
the 30s with upper 20s for parts of the Adirondacks, Greens
sand Catskills.

Temperatures quickly moderate back towards and even a bit above
normal for the weekend as southwest return flow returns and high
pressure maintains control. The next chance for showers looks to
hold off until early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Delightful flight conditions, VFR, this afternoon with some
CI/CS occasionally filtering the October sunshine. Winds through
the balance of the afternoon are rather variable in direction
with magnitudes less than 10kts.

Tonight, a couple of challenges as some increase in sky coverage
with potential for MVFR and low end probabilities of IFR
conditions for KPSF-KGFL-KPOU. However, sky conditions may
hamper those lower clouds so, for now, we will include tempo or
VCFG and monitor trends tonight. Winds will likely remain light
and variable to calm.

Conditions should return to VFR Monday morning ahead of our cold
front with an increase in southerly to southwesterly winds.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The stretch of tranquil weather will continue through Tuesday.
A widespread rainfall appears likely on Wednesday with chilly
and blustery conditions by Thursday.

RH values will be 50 to 70 percent Monday afternoon and 45 to 60
percent Tuesday afternoon with 80 to 100 percent at night.

Winds will be light tonight, then south at 15 mph or less Monday
morning shifting to west. West winds at less than15 mph Monday
night become light south to southeast late Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The forecast area is expected to remain mainly dry through Tuesday
night with any precipitation being spotty and hydrologically
insignificant. A widespread soaking rainfall appears likely by
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS