765
FXUS61 KALY 270222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1022 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant and dry weather with increasingly warm and humid
conditions is expected through the weekend as high pressure
builds into the Northeast. Then, a disturbance off the New
England coast tracks inland for the middle of next week,
resulting in an increased potential for showers and
thunderstorms with humid conditions persisting.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1020 PM EDT, fair weather cumulus clouds have
diminished and will give way to mostly clear and dry weather
tonight with high pressure in control of the weather. Light to
calm winds could result in some areas of patchy fog toward
daybreak. Temperatures are currently falling through the 60s in
most areas with some 50s already across the higher elevations.

Previous Discussion:
As we lose daytime this evening, skies will clear quickly and
temperatures will respond and cool off as the low humidity and
light winds favor ideal radiational cooling. Tonight will be
another good night to open up the windows. Leaned on the cooler
end of guidance as dew points remain low in the mid to upper
50s. As temperatures approach their respective dew points, some
patchy fog will likely develop in the favored valley areas.
Otherwise, expect cool and comfortable conditions tonight with
lows reaching into the mid to upper 50s. Coolest in the southern
Adirondacks where some upper 40s to low 50s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Large ridging and an omega block-like pattern over the Great
Lakes will shift eastward through the weekend allowing our
~1020hPa sfc high to build further east, becoming centered over
the Adirondacks/North Country by Sunday. This will promote
continued dry conditions with the incoming ridge advecting in a
warmer air mass into the Northeast. Morning sun tomorrow will
again mix with diurnally driven cumulus clouds with 850hPa
isotherms warming towards +13C to 15C. Northerly flow will
maintain the dry column and thus support rather deep boundary
layer mixing. This will allow temperatures to reach their full
potential climbing further into the mid 80s for valley areas
with higher terrain spots reaching into the upper 70s to around
80. Overnight lows Saturday should not be quite as cool as
Friday night but still remain comfortable thanks to another
ideal radiational cooling night falling into the mid to upper
50s with low 60s in the valley.

High pressure remains in control at the sfc for Sunday as our
upper level ridging starts to transition into more of a rex-
block pattern as a cut-off low from off the New England coast
retrogrades inland and the upper level ridge shifts into
Ontario/Quebec. Upper level low becomes more westerly supporting
increased warm and moisture advection and thus result in even
more warmer and more summer-like conditions for Sunday.
Expecting highs to reach into the mid to upper 80s (pockets of
90 possible where boundary layer mixing is deepest) for the
valley with low to mid 80s for the higher terrain and hill
towns. Humidity levels will also gradually increase as dew
points slowly climb back into the 60s. Cirrus clouds associated
with the coastal low will spread from east to west, reaching our
western New England areas first Sunday afternoon before clouds
spread further into eastern NY through the afternoon and
evening. Still expecting a dry forecast through Sunday despite
the increasing high clouds.

Clouds continue increasing Sunday night and with PWATs also
trending upwards, it will feel muggier compared to previous
nights. Overnight lows will thus be warmer with lows only
reaching into the low to mid 60s (upper 50s in the higher
terrain).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We continue to monitor our cut-off over New England on Monday as
it slowly pushes inland. Since it is rather slow moving, we
still maintained a mainly dry Monday forecast with only slight
chance and low end chance POPs reaching the Litchfield Hills and
Berkshire County as sky coverage trends cloudier through the
day. Guidance continues to suggests it will become vertically
stacked and thus start to fill in/weaken as it tracks further
inland by Tuesday with the latest trends now hinting that our
upstream trough traversing the Upper Great Plains may help
steer it more into northern New England. Should this trend
continue, our POPs will trend downwards giving us a drier yet
still cloudy forecast for Tuesday with showers more likely for
western New England closer to the influence of its cold
pool. However, there is still enough spread in the guidance
that we maintained widespread chance POPs for Tuesday afternoon
as the incoming cold pool combined with increased low-level
moisture and humidity should easily support at least isolated
to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity during the diurnal
peaking hours. Given PWATs nearing or exceeding 1.50", heavy
downpours are possible during any thunderstorm.

By Wednesday, the weakening cut-off low finally escapes well to
our north and east into the Canadian Maritime with mean upper
level troughing from the Great Lakes shifting into the
Northeast. While overall forcing and upper level flow is rather
weak, humidity values remain high with PWATs ranging 2-2.5
standard deviations above normal as they approach or even
exceed 2". We maintained widespread chance for much of the day
with even low-end likely POPs by Wednesday afternoon as we reach
the diurnal peak heating hours with general weak forcing and
flow suggests that organized convection appears unlikely at this
time. Regardless, heavy downpours remains a concern given high
PWATs.

While the main parent upper level trough exits to our east by
Thursday, the upper level flow still supports weak troughing
aloft through the end of the work week and with high humidity
and temperatures trending warmer, we maintained chance POPs for
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for
Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures trend warmer by Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 80s and increasing dew points in the 60s leading more
uncomfortable conditions. Increased cloud coverage and chances
for showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday should help reduce
daytime highs a bit compared to Monday but southwest flow aloft
ahead of the incoming trough will maintain high humidity values
making it feel muggy/uncomfortable. Temperatures trend hotter
for Thursday and Friday as westerly flow aloft advects an even
warmer air mass from the Central CONUS eastward. Temperatures
look to reach close to or even exceed 90 both days in valley
areas. Given high humidity staying place, heat index values may
approach heat advisory criteria (heat index values at or above
95F). This matches with the CPC 6-10 Day outlook that continues
to message 70 - 80% confidence for above normal temperatures
from August 1-5. We continue to message the potential for heat
advisories in our hazardous weather outlook for the end of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected for much of the
upcoming TAF period as high pressure remains in control of the
weather. The exception will be whether or not any patchy fog
develops at KGFL/KPSF later tonight which could reduce vsbys to
IFR/MVFR. Will maintain MVFR TEMPO with this TAF update due to
low confidence in fog coverage. Otherwise, fair weather cumulus
clouds at or above 6000 feet will diminish this evening and
redevelop on Saturday.

Wind will light to calm tonight becoming variable in direction
at less than 10 kt on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Rathbun/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Rathbun