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000
FXUS61 KALY 181807
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
107 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over eastern New York and western
New England briefly today, then clouds will increase during the
late morning into the afternoon with mainly light snow
overspreading the region with low pressure tracking across
Pennsylvania. The light snow will continue through tonight
before tapering to scattered rain and snow showers on Monday.
Unsettled weather continues on Tuesday with another low pressure
system bringing some rain and snow to locations south of the
Capital Region, while a cold front brings snow showers to
locations north and west of Albany.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Snow spreading east in a narrow ribbon and have made minor
adjustments to the timing and spread of the snow based on
current radar/satellite and trends. Some minor adjustments to
the temperatures and sky cover through this afternoon as well.
Highs in the 30s but near 40 southern areas and upper 20s
northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tonight...A stratiform region of light snow will continue to
impact a large portion of the forecast area, as the low-level
baroclinic zone continues to be situated over the region with a
modest low-level southerly wind anomaly at H850 /1-2 STD DEVS/
above normal on the latest 00Z GEFS passes south and east of the
region. The sfc low moves along the PA-MD border with the
best FGEN in the low to mid levels passing from roughly the I-90
corridor south and east. We kept the phrasing light snow for
most of the night with generally total light snow accumulations
of 1-2". The best chance of 2-3" will be over the eastern
Catskills, northern Taconics, Berkshires, and southern Greens.
The Lake George Region, and southern Dacks may only get an inch
or less. Also, the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT may also get an
inch or less. A few spot 3-4" amounts are possible in the
northern Berkshires based on the HREFs, bit confidence is not
great enough for a 12-hr window for an advisory with the
criteria being a widespread 3". The Capital Region, Mohawk
Valley, Saratoga Region, and Schoharie Valley will be in the
1-2" range. If the wave moves slightly further north and east
over southern NY like some of the guidance, temps may warm
enough for the transition back to light rain for locations south
and east of the Capital Region. Precipitation efficiency does
not look that great in the BUFKIT soundings, and snow to liquid
ratios for the majority of the event look lower than climo
values in the 8-12:1 range.

In the warm advection pattern, temps will likely cool due to
wet bulb processes, and then steady or slightly rise. Lows will
be in the upper 20s to lower 30s from the Mohawk Valley, Capital
Region, and southern VT south and east. Expect lower to mid 20s
to the north and west.

Monday...Some lingering light snow will continue through the
morning commute which may contribute to some slick spots. The
light snow and mix of rain/snow should shut off fairly quickly
from northwest to southeast in the mid to late morning. The rain
and snow showers may linger the longest south and east of the
Capital Region. Additional accumulations look very light after
sunrise with a coating to a few tenths over the higher
terrain/mountains. The low-level moisture will be stubborn to
depart and mostly cloudy/cloudy day is expected. There is a
small chance some partial clearing may reach the Capital
District/Mohawk Valley and southern VT in the mid to late
afternoon with the subsidence in the wake of the low pressure
system moving into the Gulf of Maine. Highs will still run below
normal with upper 30s to lower 40s in the lower elevations with
perhaps some mid 40s over the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT.
Expect upper 20s to mid 30s over the higher terrain.

Monday Night...The forecast becomes a little uncertain during
this time frame, as a northern stream short-wave associated
with the upper level trough approaches in the southwest flow for
northern NY and the western Adirondacks. Some lake moisture
will be tapped and lake effect snow showers are possible just
before or after midnight ahead of the short-wave and a cold
front. Another short-wave associated with the southern stream
will approach from eastern WV and northern VA. Clouds will
thicken and lower once again with another round of over running
light snow ahead of the wave impacting locations especially
south and east of the Capital Region. The northern extent of the
QPF is variable on the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC. A few inches of snow
is possible for NW CT and perhaps the southern Taconics, and Mid
Hudson Valley if the column cools quickly, as we are expecting
lows in the 20s to around 30F in the southern most zones. The
commute may be challenging with a few inches of snow in the
southeast zones Monday night/Tue morning.

Tuesday...A low confidence forecast here depending how close the
sfc wave tracks near Long Island. If enough Atlantic moisture is
tapped with decent low-level convergence in the northwest
quadrant of the sfc low snow amounts could flirt with advisory
levels for the Berkshires and Litchfield. The mid-point for an
advisory there is 3", and our present forecast has 1-3". If we
have to increase to 2-4" or greater than an advisory maybe
needed. Further north and west a coating to an inch of snow is
expected with perhaps 1-3" in the southern and central Taconics
and the mid Hudson Valley. Lake effect snow showers/flurries are
possible over the southern and western Adirondacks with light
snow accums ahead of the cold front and the mid level trough
axis. Will mention the snow accums possibly in the HWO getting
close to advisory criteria for Berkshire and Litchfield Co.

The snow should transition to scattered rain and snow showers
in the afternoon. The rain showers will be mainly in the valley
areas with the boundary layer warming and the H925 temps above
freezing. Highs will be in the mid and upper 30s in the valleys,
and upper 20s to mid 30s over the hills and mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Prior to the arrival of a bone-chilling airmass, there will be
a chance for snow on Wednesday with a cold frontal passage. In
fact, snow squalls look likely, especially along and north of
Albany, which could impact any holiday travelers during the
afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures on Wednesday will
generally be in the upper 20s to upper 30s ahead of the cold
frontal passage but then drop into the single digits Wednesday
night.

Thanksgiving Day will be dangerously cold, albeit dry and
sunny, as an arctic airmass arrives in the region Wednesday
night behind the cold front. This will be the coldest airmass of
the season with high temperatures rivaling the record low max
temperature of 25 degrees set at Albany in the year 1880. Wind
chill values could dip as low as -15 degrees in the Dacks to
near 0 degrees in the valleys with breezy northwest winds.
Caution should be exercised if spending ample time outdoors
during the day. Overnight lows Thanksgiving night will be near 0
in the high terrain to low teens in the mid-Hudson valley.

Upper level shortwave and surface ridging begins building into
the region on Friday, allowing temperatures to moderate slightly
along with some sunshine. Highs look to be in the mid 20s to
low 30s, which is still 15-20 degrees below normal. Saturday
will be even warmer as low level flow turns out of the south to
southwest as the next potential low pressure system approaches
the region. Highs on Saturday will reach the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak disturbance approaching from the south and west will
bring intermittent light snow to the KALB/KPSF/KGFL terminals
and a mix of light rain/snow to KPOU through much of the 24 TAF
period. VFR conditions will prevail through much of the
daylight hours with gradually lowering cigs. Then the light
precipitation will generally begin from west to east early this
evening at KALB/KPSF. KGFL/KPOU will initially be on the
fringes, so the expected start time there should be later this
evening. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR once precip begins,
with IFR expected to develop at KALB (vsby) and KPSF (visby &
cigs) around late evening to just after midnight. Some brief
periods of IFR vsby will be possible at KGFL/KPOU, but not high
enough confidence to mention in TAFs at this time.

The intermittent light precip will persist through the night
and into early Monday morning before ending. Conditions will
gradually improve after the precip ends, although cigs should
remain in MVFR range through 18Z Monday.

Winds will be variable less than 5 kt, becoming westerly Monday
morning around 5 kt or less.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thanksgiving Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will be over eastern New York and western
New England briefly today, then clouds will increase during the
late morning into the afternoon with mainly light snow
overspreading the region with low pressure tracking across
Pennsylvania. The light snow will continue through tonight
before tapering to scattered rain and snow showers on Monday.
Unsettled weather continues on Tuesday with more light rain and
snow showers expected. Temperatures will continue below normal
with most of the area snow covered.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flows will continue to lower into next week with colder than
normal temperatures continuing, and mainly light precipitation
events. No widespread hydro problems are anticipated.

A disturbance moving along a front south of the region will
bring some light snowfall amounting to light accumulations of a
few inches or less late this afternoon through Monday. Total
liquid equivalents will range from a few hundredths to a quarter
of an inch in a few spots.

Another disturbance and a cold front will bring chances of snow
showers or a period of light snow on Tuesday and Wednesday with
light QPF once again of a tenth to a quarter inch.

Colder than normal temperature persist into the Thanksgiving
holiday with flows continuing to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...JLV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...NAS/Wasula