Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 050542
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
142 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain is coming to an end as Tropical Storm Isaias departs the
area. Winds will remain gusty through this evening before
lessening overnight. Outside of a couple of showers across the
Adirondacks, dry weather is expected on Wednesday. There will be
a chance of showers and thunderstorms south and east of the
Capital District on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM, some patches of clouds around the forecast area
this evening downstream of a well defined shortwave trough now
approaching western New York. A couple of showers are ongoing
ahead of this trough over the southern Adirondacks, and will
continue at times overnight. Elsewhere, it should be mainly dry.
Can`t rule out a few patches of fog developing with moist air
still around. Temps will drop only a couple more degrees
overnight.

Today, confluent flow aloft will allow high pressure to expand
into the area, leading to a tranquil weather day with a good
deal of sunshine. Highs are expected to range from the upper 60s
in the southern Adirondacks to the mid-80s in the mid-Hudson
Valley, which is not far off normal. High pressure remains
overhead tonight with perhaps a few patches of fog and lows near
normal in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to build across the region on
Thursday. A frontal boundary will stall across the mid-Hudson
Valley and attempt to lift northward toward our area. With the
dry air mass in place, any showers and thunderstorms that
develop along the front should stay to the south of our area.
Otherwise, expect a partly to mostly sunny day with highs in the
70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long range will start out with the battleground between surface
high pressure to our north and west and a stalled frontal boundary
to our south and east which will attempt to lift northward and form
a surface low pressure system. This will bring a chance for showers
and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours on
Friday and Saturday , mainly to the south and east of the Capital
District. It appears that the air mass will remain dry enough for
dry weather to continue from the Capital District and points north
and west through this period. An upper-level trough will push this
feature our to sea later on Saturday. High temperatures Thursday and
Friday will range from the 70s to lower 80s.

A slow warming trend will then ensue as the surface high pushes off
to the east and a west to southwesterly flow returns to the region.
At this time, the weekend looks to turn out mainly dry with chances
for showers and thunderstorms increasing early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
In the wake of TC Isaias, skies have been clearing out for all
sites.  Some lingering stratocu around 4-6 kft remains around for
most sites, although KPOU is far enough south to have mainly clear
skies.  Through the rest of the overnight, flying conditions should
primarily be VFR, although cannot rule out a period of MVFR cigs at
KGFL for late in the overnight.  Southerly winds will be rather
light, generally 5 kts or less.  The lingering clouds and light
breeze should help prevent any radiational fog from forming.

On Wednesday, flying conditions will be VFR for all sites. Some
diurnal cu around 4-6 kft will be in place with west-southwest winds
of 5 to 10 kts.  These clouds will dissipate, allowing for clear
skies for Wednesday night with very light or calm winds.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain and wind will come to an end early this evening as Isaias
departs the region. Drier weather and sunshine will return for most
on Wednesday and Thursday (outside of a few showers across the
Adirondacks on Wednesday). RH values will lower to between 45 and 60
percent Wednesday afternoon and rebound to 85 to 100 percent
Wednesday night. Wind will be out of the west at 7-14 mph on
Wednesday, becoming calm Wednesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain from Isaias will come to an end from south to north
into this evening. Rainfall totals range from 1-3 inches across
the region with some localized amounts already over 4 inches. An
additional inch or so will be possible on top of what has
already fallen, leading to storm totals of 2-4 inches with
localized amounts to 6 inches. A general 1-2 inches is expected
across western New England.

The risk for flash flooding will continue until Isaias departs
the region this evening. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
for the entire HSA.

Despite this amount of rainfall, there remains low
probabilities for river flooding on the main stem rivers, mainly
due to the Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions across
the region. However, some of the flashier basins could see some
minor flooding, such as the Schoharie, Esopus, Hoosic, and
Mettawee. The Hudson near Poughkeepsie could get close to flood
stage due to tidal effects.

Drier weather will return for the remainder of the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Thompson
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...Thompson/Rathbun



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