Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 232107
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
507 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across our region tonight with showers
and isolated thunderstorms. An upper disturbance and cold front
will track through our region Sunday with another round of
showers and thunderstorms. One last upper disturbance and
reinforcing cold front will drop south Monday with isolated
thunderstorms possible near the New York, New England border
into New England. Dry weather is expected Tuesday through the
middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
An area of rain associated with the leading edge of
strengthening warm advection is exiting eastern NY, VT and the
Berkshires. Coverage of clouds, showers and isolated
thunderstorms decreases through central and western NY/PA,
between the warm advection and the upper cool pool associated
with the center of the upper disturbance.

Another area of better coverage of showers and thunderstorms in
western PA associated with the upper disturbance just entering
parts of western NY is continuing to move steadily east and
northeast. The breaks in the clouds to the west are allowing for
some better instability in that region but as it tracks toward
eastern NY and western New England, it will be evening and
night. So, the instability should be less but still, upper
dynamics and weak forcing should support at least scattered
coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight but just
isolated at best in southern areas.

Some of the breaks in the cloud cover could work into our
region tonight. So, a few breaks outside of the scattered
showers and thunderstorms along with light winds should allow
temperatures to fall into the 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The primary upper disturbance tracks through our region Sunday
and the trailing cold front drops south as the upper disturbance
exits. Breaks in the clouds outside of any shower and
thunderstorm activity should help temperatures rise and increase
instability everywhere. Instability should be limited, though,
and the lack of severe weather in western PA and NY suggests sub
severe thunderstorms Sunday. Boundary layer flow from the west
and southwest should also help some of the clouds to mix out,
allowing for at least intervals of sun.

The boundary layer winds shift to north behind the front but the
magnitude of the winds at the boundary layer is rather weak and
instability is mostly surface based since the midlevel lapse
rates are not very steep. The low level wind shift, boundary
layer thermal and moisture boundary should support better
coverage of showers and storms Sunday afternoon. However, the
west boundary layer flow will be downslope in some areas, so
coverage and intensity of the convection should be somewhat
limited and sub severe but some locally heavy rain and some
gusty winds are possible. Highs Sunday well into the 70s to near
80.

The upper disturbance and cold front steadily exit Sunday night
with any lingering shower activity ending before daybreak
Monday. Clouds will break up through the day Monday but one last
trailing upper disturbance dropping out of Canada will brush
through parts of the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga
Region into southern VT and the Berkshires Monday afternoon.
There is a good consensus that there should be enough left over
moisture and much steeper midlevel lapse rates that would
support at least isolated thunderstorms for those areas.

Highs Monday with the cooling and drying in the 70s with some
upper 60s in the southern Adirondacks. More cooling and drying
expected Monday night and Tuesday. More widespread sunshine will
help temperatures rise to the 70s to around 80 Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term forecast period will begin with high pressure overhead
followed by a strong low pressure system progressing through the
region mid-to-late week. Very strong upper ridging and hot
conditions will be in store for the end of the week into the
weekend.

Tuesday night through Thursday...This period will begin with
departing high pressure and increasing clouds from west to east. A
robust dynamic system and surface cold front will approach the
region during the late Wednesday into early Thursday time period
bringing a chance for thunderstorms. Recent deterministic trends
have been jumping around with the timing of the frontal passage
which will be critical to available instability. Regardless though,
this system will have to be watched closely for strong thunderstorm
potential as we head into next week. Decreasing cloud cover and
lingering showers will be around late Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...There could be some lingering showers over
northern zones early Friday. Strong upper ridging will build in for
the end of the week with anomalously high H500 heights.
Deterministic, blended, and MOS guidance all suggest a prolonged
period of well above average temperatures heading into the weekend.
Trends will have to be watched for potential heat headlines.
Starting Friday it looks like we will have multiple days of high
temperatures above 90F with dew points in the 60s around the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ample showers with MVFR to borderline IFR conditions across the
region. As these showers lift northward the next few hours,
mainly MVFR CIGS with an isolated shower. These type of flight
conditions will prevail into tonight with some lowering of the
CIGS but expectations to remain just above IFR thresholds for
most of the time. If a shower were to move across the TAF
location, then IFR conditions will be possible.

Frontal system approaches Sunday with additional showers
expected by late in the morning. Generally MVFR conditions
should prevail.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unsettled weather will prevail this weekend with a complex storm
system bringing showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. High
pressure will begin to build back in on Monday with drier
conditions returning.

The RH values will be near 100 percent tonight and remain elevated
in the damp air mass Sunday with showers likely and scattered
thunderstorms. The min RH values on Monday will be 40 to 60
percent.

The winds will be from the east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph
tonight, and switch from the south to west to northwest at 5 to
15 mph on Sunday. Winds will shift to the north and northwest
Monday at around 15 mph.

A wetting rainfall of a half an inch to an inch is possible
through Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected into next week. Most
of the entire Hydro Service Area /HSA/ is under abnormally dry
conditions according to the latest US Drought Monitor.

As a storm system moves across the region, periods of showers
and a few thunderstorms are expected through Sunday evening.
Basin average rainfall amounts are expected to range between
half an inch to an inch, though locally higher amounts are
possible with any thunderstorms.

Minimal rises are expected on the waterways. Dry weather
returns Monday afternoon into the midweek before another cold
front moves across the region for Wednesday into Thursday with
some scattered showers or thunderstorms. Some locally heavy
downpours will be possible.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Due to a power outage at KGFL for roughly 4 hours this morning,
all climate data is estimated due to missing data.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Cebulko
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
CLIMATE...ALY



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