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000
FXUS61 KALY 150806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
406 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms today. High pressure building in from the
Great Lakes region will bring drier weather for Wednesday through
Friday. Temperatures will remain below seasonal levels through
Thursday, before warming closer to normal by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 4 AM EDT, areas of dense fog have developed, particularly
within river valleys where heavier rain occurred during Monday.
A band of showers/sprinkles extended from the SW Adirondacks/central
Mohawk Valley into Schoharie County, and tracking eastward,
although latest radar trends indicate some weakening.

This initial band of showers/sprinkles may eventually reach into
the Capital Region/eastern Catskills around sunrise.

Upper level trough and attendant cold pool aloft will track east
from western NYS today. Forcing from additional height falls and
a weak surface trough, combined with some instability with the
passage of the cold pool, will allow scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop later this morning into the
afternoon hours. 00Z/15 HREFs suggest MU CAPES ranging from
250-750 J/kg during peak heating around midday/early afternoon
with highest values within portions of the Hudson River Valley
and southern VT. 0-6 km shear is weaker compared to Monday,
generally 20-30 KT, greatest across the mid Hudson Valley and NW
CT. Overall, these convective parameters suggest unorganized,
mainly low-topped convection potential for today. However, with
the cold pool passing aloft (H500 temps -15 to -18 C), and
forecast wet bulb zero heights lowering to 7000-8000 FT, can not
rule out some small hail within any of the tallest updrafts.

Highs should reach the lower/mid 70s for most valley areas, and
mid/upper 60s across higher elevations. However, as showers pass
through, temps could fall into the 50s across higher terrain
areas, and 60s for valley areas at times this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, scattered evening showers should taper off by midnight
as the upper level trough passes. Some clearing is expected,
especially after midnight. Patchy fog could develop in any areas
which receive afternoon showers. Lows generally in the mid 40s
to lower 50s, although some upper 30s will be possible across
portions of the southwest Adirondacks.

Wednesday-Thursday night, high pressure and much drier air build
into the region from the west. Will have to watch for some
lingering upper level energy tracking southeast on the west side
of departing mid/upper level trough, which could allow for some
patchy clouds and perhaps a passing shower across higher terrain
areas of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT Wednesday
afternoon, but for now, keeping conditions dry based on latest
CAMs. It may become a bit breezy Wednesday afternoon, with
west/northwest winds possibly gusting up to 25 mph within the
Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires.

As for temperatures, afternoon highs for both Wednesday and
Thursday generally reaching the lower/mid 70s in valleys, and
65-70 across higher elevations. Chilly for Wednesday night, with
lows mainly in the 40s, except for some mid/upper 30s across
portions of the southwest Adirondacks and eastern Catskills.
Slightly milder for Thursday night, with lows in the mid 40s to
lower/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As we head into Fathers Day and the beginning of summer weekend, the
weather appears to becoming increasingly active across the region.

We begin with Friday as surface high and ridge aloft are expected to
track off the New England shoreline through the afternoon hours.
This will allow for upstream trough to approach from the western
Great Lakes.  Moisture transport increases a bit along the warm
front where some showers may develop and track to the west and north
of Albany.  Otherwise, should see a fair amount of sunshine with
valley temperatures approaching 80F with 70s elsewhere.

The upper trough and surface boundaries are expected to approach and
move across the region for Saturday.  This will likely be the most
active period of weather for the long term period with the threat
for showers and thunderstorms.  So after overnight lows mainly into
the 50s and lower 60s, forecast highs on Saturday climb well into
the 70s and some lower 80s, especially where more breaks of sunshine
occur.

The cold front is expected to cross the region sometime Saturday
evening as upstream surface ridge axis begins to build back into the
region.  However, cyclonic flow aloft and some lingering moisture
may result in diurnally driven showers, mainly to the north of I90.
As thermal column will be a little cooler, looking for highs near
80F for valley locations with mostly 70s expected.

The start of the new work week, Monday, the latest global models
suggest another approaching Canadian trough with increasing moisture
advecting into the Ohio Valley and eventually into the northeast
later in the day.  This would signal an increasing chance for
showers and some thunderstorms into the afternoon hours.  As H850
temperatures soar back well into the teens celsius, forecast highs
look rather warm with mainly 80s expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Challenging forecast as the remainder of the overnight period we
should see flight categories remain in MVFR. However, per the
satellite imagery, seems the lower stratus may bring about some
IFR conditions with fog and/or lower ceilings. We will place
this within a TEMPO group. Winds will generally be light and
variable overnight.

Those winds will gradually become west-northwest with a slight
increase in magnitudes to 10kts or less. This should aid with
ceilings and visibilities climb to high end MVFR or just plain
VFR conditions. As upper trough and frontal boundary approach,
so will the increase in convective shower coverage this
afternoon as we will place a PROB30 groups at this time. Most of
the convection should either be southeast of the region or
weaken toward this evening as drier air filters in from the
north.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Below normal temperatures will continue for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Today, an upper level disturbance will generate
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the late
morning into the afternoon.

Minimum RH values are expected to only reach the 50 to 70
percent range with westerly winds of 5 to 15 mph. RH will
recover to 90-100 percent tonight, with widespread dew formation
likely.

For Wednesday, much drier air will arrive with minimum RH
values in the 30 to 40 percent range with sunny skies. West to
northwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph, with some gusts
up to 25 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Multiple rounds of precipitation for areas along and north of
I-90 has resulted in a general 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rainfall
Monday, although locally up to 2.00 inches occurred in small
swaths.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
today, but amounts are expected to be hydrologically
insignificant. Dry weather is then expected for the remainder of
the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/Thompson
HYDROLOGY...KL/Thompson