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000
FXUS61 KALY 311736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
136 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A rather unsettled pattern will continue as we remain
under the influence of an upper level low pressure system. While
somewhat drier air will filter into the region this afternoon
through Wednesday, more moisture returns for Thursday with an
increasing chance for wet weather. Conditions will improve toward
the weekend with a return toward seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1240 PM EDT, earlier breaks in the clouds have filled in,
as convective temps have been attained in combination with
considerable low level moisture remaining below inversion. Still
some sprinkles/patchy drizzle across the southeast Catskills,
and this may persist through mid afternoon.

Otherwise, deeper layer of dry air continues to slowly settle
south and west across far northern New England/NYS. This may
allow for greater breaks in the clouds to develop later this
afternoon or closer to sunset across portions of the upper
Hudson Valley and southern VT, perhaps even portions of the
southern Adirondacks.

Afternoon highs should climb into the mid-upper 40s for valley
locations and upper 30s to lower 40s for the highest terrain
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As seen in the H2O vapor imagery, an impressive upper wave was
transversing along or just south of I70 corridor. This wave is
expected to track off the mid-Atlantic coastline tonight as main
upper low remains across the northeast corridor. 00Z model
trends are toward a rapidly intensifying coastal storm overnight
and well southeast of the region. Its residual impact to our
local area would be a region of increased subsidence as mid
levels continue to dry out from northeast to southwest. So we
will adjust sky coverage a bit toward a partly cloudy sky for
most areas (exception to this will be into the Catskills with a
persistent north-northeast low level trajectories). Overnight
lows will be on the chilly side with 20s for the terrain and
lower 30s for the Capital Region and points southward through
the Hudson River Valley.

Wednesday, the upper low remains across the region as rapidly
deepening coastal storm continues to evolve. So some additional
subsidence is expected as we will continue with the partly sunny
forecast, on average. Highs should be able to recover toward 50F
for valley locations and mostly 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday night into Thursday, this coastal storm will become
vertically stacked and result in moisture wrapping around and
returning from the north-northeast. So a mainly dry Wednesday
night with an increase in cloud coverage to the north and
northeast of Albany with lows generally falling between 25-35F.
Those clouds continue to advect in and lower with increasing
chances for light precipitation developing. The higher PoPs will
be to northeast of Albany with slight chance values to the west
and southwest of Albany. Some light snow will be possible around 2k
feet per wet bulb zero height forecasts. Under the increase
clouds and probabilities of precipitation, temperatures will be
a touch cooler than Wednesday`s highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Large closed off upper level low will continue to be located just
off the coast of New England for Thursday night.  An additional
upper level disturbance will be rotating westward around the
northern side of this feature for Thursday night, allowing for
plenty of clouds and some additional showers across our area.  Best
chance will be across northern and eastern areas.  Any precip looks
fairly light.  P-type should be mainly rain, although can`t rule out
some wet snow mixing in at the highest elevations, as lows should be
in the mid to upper 30s.

By Friday, the upper level low will be starting to slide eastward
and some ridging will start to build into the region.  This should
allow the clouds to gradually break up across the area. Still could
be a rogue shower around early in the day (especially for western
New England), otherwise, dry weather looks to return.  With the
return of sunshine and rising height, temps look to reach into the
50s for valley areas.

Over the weekend, high pressure should allow for mostly dry weather,
but a weak frontal boundary will be moving across the region towards
the end of the weekend for late Sunday.  This northern stream
feature looks fairly weak and won`t have a lot of moisture, but
can`t rule out a shower with it.  With some sun expected, high temps
look to reach well into the 50s each day, with overnight lows in the
30s.  Models suggest even higher heights/warm temps aloft should
build in for Monday, so temps may be even warmer to start early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 18z, low-level stratocumulus clouds continue across all TAF
sites with ceilings still MVFR but inching closer to VFR range. With
drier air continuing to build in, expect ceilings to gradually move
into the low-VFR range this afternoon and continue through much of
the overnight. There is uncertainty as to if MVFR ceilings due to a
lowering cloud deck and/or patchy fog return later tonight (best
chance would be at KPOU). For now, will maintain VFR conditions with
this update. Subsidence builds across the region tomorrow morning
with a mostly clear sky in store, especially from late-morning on.

Wind will be variable at 5 kt or less across all sites through
tonight (with occasional 10 kt wind at KGFL this afternoon). Wind
will then be out of the north at 6-12 kt tomorrow.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night to Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level low will continue to bring unsettled conditions.
More clouds than sunshine are expected today, but areal coverage
of showers should decrease as the low weakens. Temperatures
will remain a little cooler than normal as we close out the
month of March and enter April.

The RH values will only lower to 55 to 70 percent this afternoon
and rise at or above 80 percent tonight.

The winds will generally be light and vary in direction at less
than 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread flooding is expected in the ALY HSA over the next
several days.

Little in the way of precipitation is expected through Thursday
morning. Spotty light rain or showers will redevelop late
Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, with amounts
generally remaining under one quarter of an inch (with greatest
amounts for areas east of the Hudson River, as well as the
northeast Catskills.)

Latest river observations and NERFC forecasts indicate river
levels remaining below action stage, although some may crest
just under action stage across the upper Hudson Valley (i.e.,
Hadley/Hudson R) this afternoon. Slower responding Riverbank
may also approach action stage tonight into Wednesday.
Otherwise, river levels should generally slowly recede later
this week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/Wasula