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000
FXUS61 KALY 230757
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
357 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and cold front will cross the area today
accompanied by a few rain showers. Colder weather will arrive
tonight with scattered showers persisting mainly west of the
Hudson Valley. A little wet snow could occur over higher terrain
by Wednesday morning. Wednesday and Thursday will be chilly with
plenty of clouds. Scattered showers will persist west of the
Hudson Valley Wednesday, then dry weather can be expected across
the entire area on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface low pressure will track southeast from the upper Great
Lakes across upstate NY today. A few isolated showers will
develop ahead of this system later this morning across eastern
NY, then showers will become more numerous this afternoon as a
strong mid-level short wave tracks east across NY and Pa
accompanied by a low-level front. Some clearing has occurred
across western Pa and western NY early this morning and a few
breaks of sunshine may occur over eastern NY into western New
England by late morning before clouds thicken again in the
afternoon. Mid- level lapse rates will steepen to around 7.0
degrees C/km and we may even see a few rumbles of thunder later
this afternoon with the heaviest showers. High temperatures
will reach the 50s in many areas, especially if any sunshine can
be realized during the late morning or early afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The clipper-like system will move east of our area tonight with
surface low pressure organizing and strengthening along the New
England coast by Wednesday morning. Showers will persist over
higher terrain away from the Hudson Valley through the night,
however mainly dry weather with partial clearing may be seen in
the valley especially south of the Capital District. 850 mb
temperatures will fall to around -4 C over Lake Ontario which
will be cold enough to develop some showers downstream from the
Lake from central NY into the Catskills. We may see an area of
enhanced showers over our western counties late tonight as some
surface troughing enhances the low-level lift in the northwest
flow pattern. Temperatures will be cold enough later tonight to
allow for the rain showers to mix with some light snow over
higher terrain in the Adirondacks, Catskills and Green
Mountains, where there could be a light dusting of snow by
daybreak.

Wednesday will be a brisk, chilly day with northwest flow. 850
mb temperatures from -4 to -6 C over the eastern Great Lakes
will generate some light rain showers downstream from Lake
Ontario into the Catskills with a few snow flakes over the
highest elevations. Temperatures will hold mainly in the 40s,
with upper 30s over higher terrain. Brisk, chilly weather will
continue Wednesday night, then high pressure will build across
the region on Thursday bringing dry but continued unseasonably
cool weather with highs ranging from the mid 30s over the north
country and higher elevations, to the mid 40s in the mid Hudson
Valley into the Capital District.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main highlight of the long term is a potential coastal
storm that could bring rain, some mountain snow, and wind to
parts of the region during the upcoming weekend.

The period starts out Friday with dry, but cool conditions with
surface high pressure in place across the region. Sunshine
expected to start the day, with clouds gradually increasing
during the afternoon ahead of a developing coastal low taking
shape across the coastal Carolinas. Temperature will still be
below normal, due to limited mixing in a cool air mass.

Friday night should start out dry, but chances for
precipitation will increase across southern portions of the area
late, as the coastal storm tracks northward to a position near
the Delmarva by sunrise Saturday. Early look at thermal profiles
indicate precip could begin as a period of snow in the
mountains, with a possible rain/snow mix in valley locations.

Models start to diverge on Saturday, as the GFS continues to
indicate a more easterly/slower storm track compared to the
ECMWF/CMC, which is farther west/faster. These trends have been
consistent for each respective model. Due to the low forecast
confidence, will take a blended approach and mention likely pops
for areas south of Albany, with chance from around Albany
northward on Saturday. Any rain/snow mix should change to plain
rain during the daylight hours Saturday, as the boundary layer
warms. Precip expected to linger through much of Saturday night,
with again southern areas seeing the best likelihood. As temps
cool at night (depending on the eventual storm track), a change
back to rain/snow mix may occur across higher terrain areas.
Again, confidence in precip types and amounts is low. It should
also be noted that E-SE winds aloft could be fairly strong, with
some of this wind mixing to the ground in favored locations
such as the Taconics, Berkshires and southern Green Mountains.
Will need to keep monitoring this potential, but it is not
certain given an expected low-level inversion developing.

Precipitation chances continue through Sunday, as the coastal
low weakens as a sprawling upper level trough develops. Will
mention chance pops for now, although deformation on the back
side of the weakening low may result in some pockets of steadier
precip. Sunday night into Monday, as the flow becomes more
westerly, any rain/snow showers should be tied to lake
enhanced/upslope flow. Temperatures will continue to be below
normal through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Chances for showers will increase today, as a low pressure
system approaching from the Great Lakes moves eastward across
the region. OVC skies with cigs in VFR range to start, with
showers developing around 14Z-15Z. Best chances will be at
KALB/KGFL/KPSF late this morning into early afternoon. Another
round of showers is expected during the mid to late afternoon
period, with perhaps a brief downpour and rumble of thunder.
Coverage of any TSRA expected to be isolated, so will not
mention explicitly in TAFs at this time. Conditions may lower to
MVFR by this evening depending on coverage/duration of showers.

Winds will be variable around 5 kt or less, becoming northwest
around 5 kt this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
More unsettled weather with rain showers and high elevation rain or
snow showers, is expected through Tuesday as a low pressure system
approaches from the Great Lakes and crosses our region by Tuesday
evening. Drier weather is expected for much of the region for the
second half of Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds east
from the Great Lakes region.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight,
drop to 60 to 80 percent on Tuesday, recover to 85 to 100 percent
Tuesday night, and fall to 50 to 75 percent on Wednesday.

Winds will be south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph tonight and Tuesday,
and west 5 to 15 mph Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds on Wednesday
may gust over 30 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the week. A
disturbance looks to bring scattered to numerous showers later
tonight and Tuesday. Some snow is expected to mix in across the
higher terrain. Only light precipitation is expected with total
liquid equivalent amounts a tenth to a third of an inch. After
a few more rain/snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, dry
weather is expected the rest of the week with the next chance
for some wet weather occurring over the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...MSE/11
HYDROLOGY...MSE/11