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000
FXUS61 KALY 030907
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
407 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front associated with an approaching storm system
will lift north over the area today bringing with it breezy
conditions, mild temperatures, and a widespread rainfall.
Temperatures overnight into this morning will be cold enough for
some freezing rain across parts of the southern Adirondacks. A cold
front will sweep across the area later this afternoon resulting in
an intrusion of colder air over the region and the development of
lake effect snow showers over portions of the western Adirondacks
tonight into Sunday. Tranquil weather conditions return to the area
Sunday into Monday before another storm system brings another round
of widespread precipitation Monday night through Wednesday of next
week. Temperatures are expected to run above normal through next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 10 AM EST Saturday for the
southern Adirondacks due to freezing rain...

A breezy, mild, and wet early December day is expected across
eastern New York and western New England. Latest radar scans depict
bands of rain showers to our west over central and western New York.
These rain showers are associated with a deepening storm system to
our west over the Great Lakes Region. While rain is expected at the
onset of this event, thermal profiles via CAM models and model
sounding data suggest that there will be a brief period of freezing
rain over portions of the southern Adirondacks this morning.
According to the NYS Mesonet, temperatures are currently in the low
to mid 30s over the southern Adirondacks and are expected to remain
so over the next few hours before additional isentropic lifting with
a northward advancing warm front lifts temperatures into the mid to
upper 30s later this morning.

Tightening of isobars at the surface and a strengthening low level
jet with 850 mb winds between 50-65 kts will result in breezy
southerly winds gusting 25-35 kts today. Additionally, the
strong low level jet in result in effective transport of
moisture advection suitable for a widespread soaking rain with
PWAT and Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) values on the
order of +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal per the NAEFS.

Warm air advection will also be adequate as the warm front lifts
north of the area placing the area in the warm sector of the storm.
High temperatures today are expected to climb above normal
levels with values in the upper 40s to mid 50s along the river
valleys (low to mid 40s higher elevations). That`s some ~10F
degrees above normal for early December.

Rain will be greatest this morning into this afternoon before things
taper off. A cold front will then move over the region later this
afternoon/evening with synoptic rain coming to an end from west to
east as negative vorticity advection and dry air advection increases
over the region. Behind the cold fropa, temperatures will drop as
winds shift out of the west. Delta T values at or greater than 15C
between the H850 temps and the surface temps off Lake Ontario with
westerly winds will result in the development of lake effect snow
showers over the western Adirondacks into the western Mohawk Valley
later this evening into tonight. Overnight lows tonight will be
in the lower 30s along the river valleys (20s higher
elevations).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will come to an end on Sunday as high
pressure builds into the region resulting in a return to dry and
tranquil weather conditions.

A shortwave/impulse tracking along the southern periphery of a cAk
vortex over Canada and active northern stream jet will approach the
area Sunday night into Monday. The aforementioned high pressure
centered to our south should help to steer and deflect most of the
moisture from this shortwave away from our cwa/forecast area during
this time. That said, there could be some lake effect clouds
over our very northwestern sections during this time. Otherwise,
dry and tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the
area Sunday night into Monday.

As mentioned, Sunday will be colder behind the cold fropa. Expect
for high temperatures to struggle to make it out of the 30s with
values in the mid 30s to near 40F along the river valleys (mid 20s
to lower 30s higher elevations). Monday, winds will shift out of the
southwest resulting in a moderation of temperatures. Expect for
highs to reach the low to mid 40s along the river valleys (30s
higher elevations). Sunday night, lows will be in the 20s most
places.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Our region will under a SW flow regime aloft from Monday night
through Wednesday night, with anomalously high geopotential heights
(mainly +1 to +2 STDEV). This will result in above normal
temperatures during this time. Moisture looks to be anomalously high
as well with this flow pattern (PWAT anomalies +1 to +3 STDEV). So
unsettled weather is expected, with multiple chances for precip.
Temperatures should be mainly warm enough for just plain rain,
although there could be a light wintry mix across higher terrain
areas late Monday night into Tuesday morning as near to sub-freezing
air at the surface could get trapped in some sheltered areas when
warming aloft commences.

A quasi-stationary front is expected to be positioned just to our
west Tuesday through Wednesday, which will result in continued
chances for rain showers and above normal temperatures. The
ECMWF/EPS/CMC indicate a weak wave of low pressure developing along
the front, which should eventually move east of our region by
Thursday morning as a fairly strong area of high pressure pushes
eastward into SE Canada. The GFS/GEFS is an outlier showing another
wave of low pressure moving along the delayed front on Thursday.
Will discount this scenario for now and go with the more progressive
guidance sources.

Drier and colder conditions expected for Thursday into Friday with a
northerly flow developing. Temperatures should cool back to near
normal levels, as surface ridging associated with a large area of
high pressure in SE Canada influences our weather.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...Mid level clouds will remain in place
through much of the rest of the night. Lower level stratus
clouds at MVFR levels should develop by around 11Z-12Z, as
southerly flow continues to strengthen and draw moisture
northward into our region. A batch of showers associated with a
warm front will move in this morning around 12Z, lasting
through the morning hours. Conditions will be mainly MVFR at
KALB/KGFL, although periods of IFR cigs are expected at
KPOU/KPSF. Vsbys will mainly be MVFR, although a few brief
period of IFR cannot be ruled out.

After the first batch of showers moves through, there will be a
break of dry weather for around 3-4 hours until a fairly narrow
line of showers associated with a cold front approaches from
the west and moves through. This is expected to occur between
20Z-22Z. Brief downpours and reduced vsbys are possible with
these showers along the cold front. Conditions will improve to
VFR around 23Z-00Z, as drier air starts to work in from the
west.

Will continue mention of low level wind shear from 06Z through
the afternoon until the cold front pushes through. Even though
winds at the surface will become breezy, the low level jet
aloft will be quite impressive, with south-southwest wind speeds
around 45-50 kt at 2000 ft AGL.

At the surface, southerly winds will increase to around 12-17
kt, with gusts of 25-30 kt expected this morning. Winds will
shift to the west behind the cold front by early this evening,
and will remain quite gusty through the evening at 20-30 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ032-033-042-082.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evbuoma
NEAR TERM...Evbuoma
SHORT TERM...Evbuoma
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV