Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 261455
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1055 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm today with mainly fair weather but becoming breezy.
Memorial Day will feature lots of sunshine, light winds and
seasonable temperatures. The weather will turn unsettled
for the mid week period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 10:30 AM...Cold front continues to progress southeastward
across the Dacks. While no showers are observed at the present
time, with the daytime heating and the timing of frontal
passages, could see a few convective elements develop across the
Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT later this afternoon. So
we have adjusted PoPs/Wx a bit per recent trends.  It will be a
warm day across most of the forecast area with a mild start and
the area in warm sector. Southerly winds will becoming westerly
with its passage and increase becoming breezy and gusty with
gusts up to 25 to 20 mph this afternoon.

Highs are expected to range from mid/upper 60s across the
western Adirondacks to the mid 80s in the mid Hudson Valley into
northwestern Connecticut with the Capital District expected to
reach lower 80s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Winds diminish early this evening becoming light overnight as
high pressure begins to build it. Clouds are expected to
decrease from north to south with lows in the mid 40s to upper
50s.

Memorial Day is looking quite nice with lots of sunshine, light
northerly winds and seasonable temperatures as high pressure
builds in from across the Great Lakes region. Expecting highs
in the 70s below 1000 feet and in the 60s above.

The surface high will slide off to our east Monday night in the
zonal flow across the region. Clouds will be the increase
especially after midnight ahead of our next weather system.
Lows are expected to be seasonable for late May in the 40s to
lower 50s.

Tuesday will be the beginning of another wet period as warm
front extending from a low over the Plains approaches this time
with waves of low pressure moves eastward along the boundary.
Increasing chances for showers as the day progresses with cool
temperatures and a southeasterly flow. Highs are only expected
to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s, around 10 degrees below normal,
as we remain to the north of the boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the middle to the end of the week, medium range deterministic
models suggest an anomalously deep upper low will remain situated
around Hudson Bay. Meanwhile, energy emanating from a cutoff low
over the Midwest will eject toward the Eastern Seaboard. Though
large scale height falls are weak, models depict some of this energy
tracking into the area on Wednesday, which will likely spark a round
of showers and possible thunderstorms. It appears southerly flow in
advance of this energy will allow for temperatures and dewpoints to
increase relative to Tuesday, although high temperatures and
resulting surface based instability appear to be contingent upon
whether any breaks in the cloud cover can occur. Will mention a
chance of thunderstorms Wednesday.

By Thursday or Thursday night, models suggest a stronger area of
height falls tracks into the northeastern US, with another round or
rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. Again, with rather
persistent southerly flow, temperatures will likely be elevated
compared with Wednesday. Midlevel flow appears to be strong over the
local area along the southern periphery of the expansive Hudson Bay
circulation, so if the timing is right and respectable diurnal
instability can build, some stronger/organized convective episodes
are possible. As it is too early to work out such details, will just
opt to mention a general chance of thunder in the HWO.

For Friday into Saturday, the forecast will trend drier and cooler,
anticipating subsidence and a slightly cooler airmass in the wake of
the height falls.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Trapped low level moisture is resulting in a bank of MVFR stratus
over or around the terminals early this morning, preferentially
located at higher elevations. GFL has slipped to IFR ceilings.
Expect this moisture to mix out rather quickly today as diurnal
heating takes hold and a drier airmass filters in. VFR conditions
are expected once this low level moisture mixes out early this
morning. Tonight, mainly clear skies are expected as high pressure
builds in.

South to southwesterly winds this morning will shift to westerly
with some gusts to near 20 kt this afternoon. Winds will diminish
after sunset.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusts 25 to 30 mph this afternoon...

Warm with mainly fair weather today and minimum relative
humidity values in the lower 40s to lower 50s. Northwesterly
winds will become breezy and gusty this afternoon.

Winds diminish this evening and remain light through
Memorial Day. Relative humidity values will recover to
90 to 100 percent tonight with minimums Monday afternoon
in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts where light across the most of the local area.
The western Adirondacks and western/central Mohawk Valley
received generally a 1/4 to 1/2 inch with locally higher
amounts. Mainly fair weather today and Monday with the weather
turning unsettled for Tuesday through Thursday.

Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA


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