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000
FXUS61 KALY 291836
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
236 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions continue through today with showers
and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. Some storms could become
severe. The cold front exits Saturday morning and cooler and
drier weather is expected the rest of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 236 PM EDT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch #234 in effect for
all of eastern Upstate New York through 9 PM EDT.

Our region remains situated within a rather warm and humid
environment. With a southerly flow at low levels, dewpoints
remain in the upper 60s early this afternoon. Visible satellite
imagery shows plenty of breaks in the clouds over most of the
area, which has allowed valley temps to surge into the lower to
middle 80s. The warmest temps are right around the Capital
Region, where temps have reached up to 89 degrees according to
KALB ASOS and NYS Mesonet observations.

Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage and
strength across the region, especially across the Saratoga
Springs-Glens Falls area, where a thunderstorm produced lots of
lightning is now capable of severe winds as well. As the upper
level forcing continues to get closer, the combination of MLCAPE
of around 1500 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear of 30+ knots will
allow for additional severe storms through the evening.

As the convection over western New York heads eastward, 3km
CAMs suggest some organization into lines or linear clusters
will occur for the late afternoon into the evening hours. This
activity will need to be monitored for a more widespread threat
for severe storms across our area as they move from west to
east.

The main threat with any strong storms will be damaging winds.
Midlevel lapse rates are expected to be around 6 to 6.5 C/Km by
later today, which is enough to sustain updrafts but not
necessarily enough to accelerate updrafts, which with the high
wet bulb freezing levels suggests some hail potential but hail
may contribute more to enhancing downdrafts and wind damage.

Low level shear will be enough for some rotating storms,
especially as shear increases late in the afternoon and toward
evening. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Low level dew
points well into the 60s to near 70 and low lifted
condensations levels also support the potential for an isolated
tornado.  Locally heavy rain is also possible if training can
set up with ponding of water on roadways and low lying areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The severe weather threat continues this evening until some
diurnal cooling begins and instability decreases. Low level jet
energy strengthens through the evening, suggesting the damaging
wind and isolated tornado threat continues until the organized
storms associated with the pre frontal trough exit. After
midnight, thunderstorms should be confined to the southern
Berkshires, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Due to decreasing
instability with cooling temperatures, much of the severe
weather threat should end by that time also. Still, some
locally heavy rain is possible through the early morning hours
in lingering thunderstorms.

Some partial clearing is likely as the low level winds shift to
west and northwest and low level cold advection begins to spread
across our region. There is one more piece of upper energy that
will track north and east of our region and the leading edge of
the core of coldest air will track through Saturday afternoon
and evening. There could be isolated showers north of the Mohawk
Valley Saturday afternoon along the leading edge of this
reinforcing cooler air. Highs Saturday in the 70s but near 80
mid Hudson Valley and mid to upper 60s southern Adirondacks.

Clearing and cooler Saturday night and Sunday with highs Sunday
in the 60s to near 70 but 50s higher terrain. Will have to keep
an eye on some frost potential in the southern Adirondacks for
Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out on Monday with an upper level trough axis
gradually moving eastward into New England during the morning, with
a cyclonic northwest flow regime still lingering through much of the
day. The best forcing will be east of our region, so at this time
only isolated showers are expected. It will be a cool day, with
temperatures a good 10 degrees below normal for early June. Dry and
cool conditions in store for Monday night, as a ridge of high
pressure builds in from the south and west.

Tuesday should feature continued dry conditions, along with a slight
moderation in temperature as the low level flow shifts from
northwest to southwest. Northwest flow aloft will be theme of the
week, with occasional disturbances moving through. The first
disturbance looks to move across the region Tuesday night bringing
scattered showers.

Models then start to diverge, with the chaotic/fast flow regime
persisting. Typical large dispersion in the guidance with regards to
the placement and track of quick-moving disturbances. Given a
relatively high confidence in the flow pattern and low confidence in
timing/coverage of showers associated with disturbances, will
mention mainly chance pops from Wednesday through Thursday. At this
time it appears instability would be limited with near normal
temperatures and dewpoints not overly moist (40s to mid 50s). Will
mention just slight chance of thunder west of the Hudson Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NWS WSR-88D Radars showing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing across New York State north and west of the
mid Hudson Valley.  Chances for scattered thunderstorms will
increase across the Albany Forecast Area during the late afternoon
into the evening. Have included tempo for thunder in TAFs as latest
convective allowing models show coverage to increase substantially
this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger
through much of the evening, as a slow moving cold front progresses
eastward. Cold front should be east of the TAF sites by mid morning
Saturday and winds will become more west to northwest tomorrow.

Winds today will be southerly around 10-15 kt with gusts of
20-25 kt, especially at KALB/KPSF. Stronger winds gusts will be
possible within any thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Winds will shift to the west tomorrow morning after the
cold front passes.

Outlook...

Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A warm and humid conditions continue through today with showers
and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. Some storms could become
severe. The cold front exits Saturday morning and cooler and
drier weather is expected the rest of the weekend.

The humid conditions along with chances for rain through tonight
will keep RH values above 60 percent. Cooler and drier air will
be in our area Saturday with RH values falling to the 50 to 65
percent range by afternoon.

South winds through tonight will gust to 20 mph. Winds shift to
west and northwest early Saturday morning at around 15 mph.
Winds could gust to 20 mph Saturday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Through tonight, a warm and humid airmass will interact with an
approaching cold front to generate showers and thunderstorms.
Locally heavy downpours can be expected, but widespread
hydrological issues are not anticipated. Long-term conditions
remain dry, with portions of Herkimer and Hamilton Counties in
abnormally dry conditions (D0) per latest Drought Monitor. Basin
average QPF of 0.50 to 1.25 inches here may help conditions.
Elsewhere, basin average totals of 0.50 inches or less are
expected. Locally heavy rain is likely in thunderstorms with
some areas seeing ponding of water on roadways and low lying
areas but no river flooding is expected.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Frugis/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS