Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 030236 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 936 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .UPDATE... Short wave, mid level warm front and mid level jet were all approaching from the west. 00Z sounding depicts notable warm advection underway centered around H700. In fact, a batch of stratocumulus developed across the heart of the CWA and banked up the western slopes of the Greens and Berks with the backedge approaching the Hudson River as of 930 PM. The aforementioned wave, front and jet will continue to advect moisture and lift for some light snow/snow showers to develop across the Dacks soon. This will attempt to spread into the Lake George-Saratoga Region including southern Greens of VT overnight. Temperatures are expected to steady off as well with cloud coverage on the increase. So overall update was to sky coverage, PoP/Wx grids per recent and forecast trends within the HRRR and 00Z NAM3km, and refresh of hourly temps/dewpts/winds. && .SYNOPSIS... Cold and breezy conditions are expected to persist across the region through the afternoon, with winds diminishing overnight. Some light snow is possible for the southern Adirondacks tonight into tomorrow morning. A retrograding upper-level low will keep us under the influence of troughing and cyclonic flow aloft through the weekend. As this feature moves off to our east, temperatures may moderate towards the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Temperatures are currently in the teens and 20s across the region this afternoon mostly clear conditions seen on GOES 16 satellite. Winds are still gusty, with gusts between 25-35 mph common across the region with some locally higher gusts in the higher terrain especially in the Berkshires. Mixing to near 850 mb as seen on BUFKIT soundings supports continued mixing down of gusty winds through the rest of the afternoon, but expecting a general decreasing trend in wind gusts through the afternoon into the evening as the pressure gradient relaxes and we lose daytime solar heating. Winds may become light and temperatures are expected to drop this evening as a weakening 850 mb ridge axis moves overhead. Current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave located to the north of the Great Lakes moving towards our region. Clouds are expected to increase in advance of this upper-level impulse this evening into tonight with a few snow showers possible, mainly in the southern Adirondacks. A few inches of snow is possible for the upslope areas of the Adirondacks, but not expecting advisory criteria to be reached due to the lack of moisture and relatively weak forcing for ascent with this shortwave. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Light snow or snow showers are expected in the Adirondacks to begin the day Wednesday, but elsewhere across the region should remain dry. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 30s and 40s across the region Wednesday as partial clearing, especially for the Mid Hudson Valley is expected behind the upper-level impulse. As this shortwave departs, flow aloft is expected to become more cyclonic Wednesday night through Thursday night as an upper-level low in southeastern Canada retrogrades towards our region. This will be accompanied by another shot of cold air late Wednesday night. Low temperatures Wednesday night are expected to be in the 10s to 20s, with highs Thursday only in the 20s to upper 30s for the Mid Hudson valley. Thursday night we will be in the heart of the cold air, with 850 mb temperatures between -10 to -15 expected. Accordingly, low temperatures are expected to drop into the single digits across the Adirondacks Thursday night. Breezy conditions are still expected through this period due to our region being located between high pressure over the Great Lakes and low pressure in southeastern Canada. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Broad mid to upper level cyclonic flow will be established over the Northeast U.S. and eastern Canada late in the week and through the weekend. Mid to upper ridging will build into the region from the central U.S. early next week. Overall, a quiescent weather pattern can be expected with an uptrend in temperatures during this long- term forecast period. We start off the extended forecast period Friday with the mean axis of an upper level trough to our east over eastern Quebec into Labrador Canada. This setup will allow for a northwest flow aloft regime to be in place. A series of weak mid to upper level perturbations will pivot around the aforementioned upper trough Friday and Saturday. These shortwaves will affect areas primarily west of the Hudson Valley (i.e. SW Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie, and the eastern Catskills). Because there will be limited availability of low-level moisture, expect just low chance PoPs for some snow showers at best for these areas Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will be cold running below normal during this time period. The mid to upper trough finally moves further east away from the region Sunday into early next week. Ridging will build in from the central U.S. with a broad and strong 1032 hpa surface high pressure area building into the region. Subsidence from these weather features will result in a continuation of dry and tranquil conditions Sunday through Tuesday. As far as temperatures, we`ll see a moderation in temperatures during this time period from colder than normal levels to warmer than normal levels. Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s Friday will transition to highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s by Tuesday. Low temperatures will start off from the mid teens to lower 20s Friday night/Saturday morning to the mid 30s Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Generally, expected mainly VFR conditions tonight with an increase probability for MVFR ceilings toward sunrise Wednesday, especially north of KPOU. As upstream system approaches from the eastern Great Lakes, clouds will be on the increase. There will also be some snow with best chance into KGFL later this evening where we will retain VCSH at this time. These clouds will slowly thicken and lower tonight which will persist into most of Wednesday. MVFR ceilings for KPSF and KGFL with remaining VFR for KALB-KPOU. West-northwest winds 10-20kts this evening will subside less than 10 kts overnight. Magnitudes increase once again daylight hours Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydro issues are anticipated through the rest of the week. Dry weather is expected for today with temperatures remaining below freezing. A northern stream disturbance will bring some light snow showers to the Adirondacks for tonight into Wednesday, otherwise, the rest of the day will remain dry through the mid-week period. No major storm systems are expected through the rest of the week and any additional light precip that does occur would be in the form of snow showers. Temperatures should be close to normal for Wednesday, but mainly below normal for the rest of the week. Some snowmelt may occur during the daytime for valley areas as temperatures reach above freezing, but any melt will slow down or stop at night as temperatures fall back below freezing across the entire area. Due to the limited and diurnal nature of the melting, no flooding is expected, as any snowmelt looks to be rather slow and river flows won`t be increasing too rapidly at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ UPDATE... SYNOPSIS...Main NEAR TERM...Main/BGM SHORT TERM...Main LONG TERM...Evbuoma AVIATION...BGM/Speciale HYDROLOGY...Frugis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.