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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 240505
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
105 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through
the middle of the week with high pressure in control.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Extensive high clouds over the region that will continue through
daybreak. Light steady winds from the north will trend to calm.
Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s with around 40 in the
southern Adirondacks.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface high pressure will remain in place across southern
Quebec into northern New England providing continued dry
conditions. The flow aloft turns more westerly/zonal as a
weak/subtle disturbance moves through in the afternoon to early
evening. Other than some added cloud cover at times, the
disturbance will move through rather quietly. High temperatures
should be very close to normal for this time of year (mid 60s to
lower 70s).

Dry conditions look to persist Tuesday night with the surface
ridge extending southward into New York and New England. Lows
should be near normal ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s with
some clouds drifting through from time to time.

More tranquil weather expected on Wednesday with weak surface
high pressure in place and upper level heights rising. 500 mb
height anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV forecast to develop from the
NAEFS. Cloud coverage uncertain as there will be a weak onshore
southeast flow developing, but may not be enough to push any
stratus into our region. At this time temperatures look to be
seasonably warm with at least a mix of sun and clouds expected.

Wednesday night an approaching warm front may bring some extra
clouds, but with only weak forcing we are not expecting any
precipitation through sunrise Thursday. Lows temperatures should
be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Uncertainty remains in the forecast as we head into the long holiday
weekend. Guidance is in agreement a large scale upper trough moves
eastward across the CONUS, however there are differences dealing
with what happens to an upper level low which is expected to be
situated over the Southern Plains as we start out the period. The
ECMWF remains progressive with the low opening while the GFS cut off
the low and it makes only gradual progress eastward. The CMC splits
the differs, a middle ground approach, and this was favored for the
forecast.

Based on this we are looking at unsettled wet conditions developing
Thursday night and continuing into Saturday morning with the most
widespread chances for showers on Friday along with the chance
for thunderstorms. Mainly fair weather would be expected for the
rest of the holiday weekend as ridging builds in. At this time,
expecting seasonable to slightly above normal high temperatures
mainly in the 60s and 70s with possibly warmer conditions on
Memorial Day with above normal lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00z/Wed...VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming
TAF period. High pressure will bring dry weather to the region,
though there will be some mid and high clouds around. Cloud bases
will remain above 5000 feet at all sites with the exception of KPOU,
where bases may lower to around 4000 feet for a time Tuesday morning.

Wind will remain mainly out of the north to northeast at 4-8 kt
tonight, then shift to the south to southeast on Tuesday at the same
magnitudes.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through
the middle of the week with high pressure in control.

Relative humidity values will increase to between 65 and 85
percent tonight, dropping to minimum values around 35 to 45
percent on Tuesday. RH values will increase to between 75 and
100 percent Tuesday night.

Winds tonight will be north-northeast less than 10 mph,
becoming southeast on Tuesday. Winds Tuesday night will remain
southeast at 5 mph or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through at least the middle of this week
with dry weather expected. Unsettled weather returns for the
latter part of the week with increasing chances for showers and
some thunderstorms, especially on Friday. Rainfall looks to be
generally hydrologically insignificant, although some local
downpours may occur with any thunderstorms.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...Speciale
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JPV