Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 021537 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1037 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and windy conditions are occurring region-wide after the passage of an arctic cold front last night into early this morning. Even with abundant sunshine expected today, the combination of the cold temperatures and gusty winds will lead to low wind chill values through the day, especially across the higher terrain. Temperatures will moderate somewhat for tomorrow, with a period of snow showers expected across the Adirondacks. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE... The Wind Advisory remains in effect for southern Vermont, the Berkshires, and the Litchfield Hills until 1 PM this afternoon. The Wind Advisory and Wind Chill Advisory have both been cancelled for the rest of the region as temperatures have moderated slightly and winds have relaxed this morning behind the passage of the arctic front. Current GOES 16 satellite shows mostly clear skies across the region as of 10:15 AM, as early morning flurries have decreased in coverage. Per NY Mesonet observations, temperatures are currently in the single digits and teens across the region, with wind chills randing from around -10 to 0 degrees F. Expecting cold and breezy conditions to persist through the afternoon, although relaxing pressure gradient and abundant sunshine should lead to moderating temperatures and decreasing wind gusts over the next several hours. With this update, only made minor revisions to temperatures and sky cover, and decreased winds slightly. The rest of the forecast remains on track. Previous [0646]...Closed off 500 hpa low is moving from northern New England into Atlantic Canada. Meanwhile, cyclonic flow around this large feature is allowing for some lake enhanced snow showers and flurries across parts of central New York. This activity has diminished greatly over the past few hours. While a few stray flurries may still be reaching into parts of the Catskills over the next hour or two, no additional accumulation is expected today and snowfall should be limited to west of the area for central New York for the remainder of the day. Meanwhile, the combination of deep mixing and a strong surface pressure gradient has been allowing for gusty winds through the overnight hours. Mixing is not as deep now as what it was last evening when the upper level low was closer (mixing to 850 hpa now as opposed to 700 hpa from last evening). Surface observations continue to show plenty of gusts of 25 to 40 mph and BUFR soundings continue to suggest that gusts of 30 to 50 mph are possible through the morning hours, especially after daybreak, as mixing may slightly increase once again. Since gusts aren`t expected to reach warning levels (50+ kts), the area within the high wind warning has been lowered to an advisory, so all of eastern NY and western New England will remain in just an advisory through the early afternoon hours. Some additional downed tree limbs and power lines are possible, although the highest gusts have likely already occurred. Decreasing pressure gradient should allow for lower wind gusts this afternoon, although it will still be rather blustery, with gusts up to 30 mph for this afternoon. Temps started the day very cold. The strong cold air advection in place has allowed temps to fall overnight, despite the strong winds in place. With the advective cold setup in place, temps have fallen so far as low as -5 F over the Adirondacks, with single digits and teens over the rest of the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather will continue for this evening, but clouds will start to increase for tonight as a northern stream disturbance starts dropping southeast towards the area. This system will be fairly moisture starved and weakening, but some light snow showers are possible across the Adirondacks for late tonight into Wednesday. Outside of the Adirondacks, downsloping should prevent much precip from occurring, but a partly to mostly cloudy sky is expected for later tonight into Wednesday. Upslope favored areas of the western Adirondacks could see a few inches of snow accumulation (especially around Old Forge and Inlet), otherwise, little snowfall is expected from this system, thanks to the limited moisture and weakening dynamics. Temps tonight look to fall into the teens to low 20s (some single digits for the Adirondacks). Temps may surge back up ahead of the approaching disturbance for Wednesday, with mid 30s to mid 40s for much of the day (some upper 20s to mid 30s within the snowfall for the Adirondacks). Behind the the departing disturbance, upper level trough will remain in place over the Northeast for Wed night through Thursday night. While it will stay dry, a reinforcing shot of cold air will move back into the area, especially by late Thursday. Temps will mainly be in the teens and 20s for Wednesday night, but will only reach into the 20s and 30s for Thursday with a gusty northwesterly breeze. By Thursday night, clearing skies should allow for single digits and teens once again with a lingering breeze. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A mean mid and upper level trough will be over the Northeast and eastern Canada late in the week and through the weekend. Ridging builds in over the eastern CONUS early next week, as temps will rise back to normal to above normal levels to open the week. Fri-Sat Night...Northwest flow aloft will prevail to close the week, as an upper level low will be centered over eastern Quebec and near Labrador. A series of weak short-waves and sfc troughs will move across the region with limited low-level moisture to work with on Fri and Sat. The first one will tap some Great Lakes moisture with a slight chance of snow showers mainly west of the Hudson River Valley late Fri-Fri night. A better short-wave moves through on Saturday with a little more moisture based on the GFS and we included slight and low chance PoPs for the western Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and the eastern Catskills for Sat-Sat night. Clouds will increase across the rest the region with perhaps some flurries. In the cyclonic flow, it will remain colder than normal. H850 temps will be slightly colder than normal based on the 00Z GEFS with the actual values -13C to -17C on Fri and a slight moderation on Saturday before the next short-wave goes through late Sat into Sat night as the temps fall back close to -10C to -15C. Highs on Fri will be below normal by 10 degrees or so with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s in many of the valley locations and upper teens to mid 20s over the mtns. Lows will be in the teens to lower 20s Fri and Sat nights in the lower elevations, and single digits over the southern Dacks, and southern Greens. Highs on Saturday will be slightly warmer with lower to upper 30s in the lower elevations, and 20s over the higher terrain. Sunday into Monday...High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley with fair and cold conditions to close the weekend. The sfc anticyclone ridges in from the Mid Atlantic Region on Monday with mid and upper level heights rising over the east Coast. Slightly below normal temps are expected on Sunday with an increase of sunshine due to the subsidence from the ridge. After another cold night due to radiational cooling is expected Sunday night. The mid and upper level trough moves downstream with temps rising potentially into the upper 30s to mid 40s on Monday with upper 20s to mid/upper 30s over the hills and mtns, as the fair and dry weather continues. The moderation in temps continues, as we head into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong northwest winds continue in the wake of the arctic front last night. The winds will gradually subside in the mid to late afternoon, as high pressure builds in from the south and west. Some clouds will increase tonight ahead of a warm front with an approaching clipper low. VFR conditions are expected through the end of the TAF cycle for KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU. A few-sct stratocumulus and cirrus will be around this morning and the skies will clear. Some mid level clouds will approach tonight with cigs in the 6-10 kft AGL range. A few light snow showers will get close to KGFL around 05Z/WED and we included a VCSH at this time. The deeper mixing and tight sfc pressure gradient between low pressure moving into the Gulf of St Lawrence and high pressure building in from the OH Valley will continue the strong gusty winds. The west to northwest winds will be 12-25 kts with some gusts 25-40 kts this morning. The winds will begin to subside after noontime and will be northwest at 15-22 kts with gusts still in the 25-38 kt range. The higher gusts will tend to be at KALB/KPSF. The winds will decrease from the west to southwest at 5-10 kts just after 00Z/WED. Expect light south to southwest of 3-8 kts overnight. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydro issues are anticipated through the rest of the week. Dry weather is expected for today with temperatures remaining below freezing. A northern stream disturbance will bring some light snow showers to the Adirondacks for tonight into Wednesday, otherwise, the rest of the day will remain dry through the mid-week period. No major storm systems are expected through the rest of the week and any additional light precip that does occur would be in the form of snow showers. Temperatures should be close to normal for Wednesday, but mainly below normal for the rest of the week. Some snowmelt may occur during the daytime for valley areas as temperatures reach above freezing, but any melt will slow down or stop at night as temperatures fall back below freezing across the entire area. Due to the limited and diurnal nature of the melting, no flooding is expected, as any snowmelt looks to be rather slow and river flows won`t be increasing too rapidly at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ001. NY...None. MA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ001-025. VT...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Main NEAR TERM...Frugis/Main SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula HYDROLOGY...Frugis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.