Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 101958 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 358 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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Continued below normal temperatures to start the week with chilly nights. A disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere will move through Tuesday afternoon into the evening and may result some showers mainly north and west of the Capital District.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Frost Advisory has been issued for the western Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills and for southern Vermont above 2000 feet from 2 am to 8 am Tuesday. Scattered showers mainly along and north of I-90 will continue this afternoon. They will dissipate early this evening with loss of heating and passage of a short wave. Cloud cover will decrease as the night progresses with a light westerly flow with some very weak ridging between short waves. Temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s with lower 40s in the mid-Hudson Valley into northwestern Connecticut.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Below normal temperatures will continue into mid-week as the region remains under the influence of an upper level low. The upper low and its associated cold pool will move across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night and with another short wave moving about low it will lead to chances for showers mainly to the north and west of the Capital District. It will be another day with cool temperatures; highs only in the 50s below 1500 feet with 40s about that. Some highs into the lower 60s are possible in the mid-Hudson Valley. Continued threat for isolated showers across the southern Green Mountains Wednesday otherwise fair weather expected. Bit warmer Wednesday than Tuesday by about 5 degrees; expecting lower 60s up the Hudson River Valley with 50s elsewhere. Chilly night with lows back down into the 30s both Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Additional frost headlines are possible.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The long-term forecast period will feature near normal temperatures (maybe slightly bias on the cooler side) and day-to-day chances for showers with maybe some embedded isolated to scattered thunderstorms (outside of Thursday). During this period, while a broad area of high pressure will be present at the surface, the ALY forecast area will be placed on top of a weak upper level trough. A series of mid to upper level perturbations/impulses tracking along a west-northwest oriented flow aloft will raise prospects for day-to-day showers, particularly during the afternoon hours Friday-Monday thanks to max differential diurnal boundary heating. CAPE values upwards to about 500 J/kg or so will support the possibility of thunderstorms. While DCAPE values between 300-600 J/kg aren`t impressive, steep mid-level lapse rates between 6-7 C/km could support some isolated strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail. Currently, we are not under any risk for severe weather. That said, will have to keep close watch on these instability values and trends going forward. Outside of that, there will be many dry hours in between any showers and storms that develop. As mentioned earlier, temperature anomalies will be near normal levels (maybe a tad bit slightly below normal for the balance of the period. High temperatures Thursday-Monday will be right around 70F into the lower 70s (cooler higher elevations). Low temperatures will range in the mid 40s to lower 50s (cooler higher elevations) with low temperatures increasing each passing night.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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BKN/OVC stratocu deck is expected to remain in place through the rest of the day. So far cigs have been borderline VFR/MVFR, but they should trend more toward VFR as the boundary layer deepens this afternoon. A few isolated showers have developed and will likely continue into the evening hours, so VCSH wording was retained. The stratocu are expected to scatter out tonight as diurnal heating wanes and an upper level disturbance passes, with just lingering areas of high cirrus. FEW/SCT high-based stratocu expected to develop late Tuesday morning, with VFR cigs. Winds will be from the north to west at 5 to 10 kt for the remainder of the daylight hours, easing to 5 kt or less tonight into Tuesday morning. Westerly winds will increase to around 10 kt with some gusts to 20 kt late Tuesday morning to the end of the TAF period (18Z Tue). Outlook... Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...RA...TSRA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... ...Gusts up 25 mph Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons...
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Continued below normal temperatures to start the week with chilly nights. A disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere will move through Tuesday afternoon into the evening and may result some showers mainly north and west of the Capital District.
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Minimum relative humidity values are expected to be in the 30s Tuesday afternoon and in the mid 30s to mid 40s Wednesday afternoon. Relative humidity values will increase to 75 to near 100 percent tonight. On Tuesday westerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Winds will be northwesterly at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. && .HYDROLOGY...
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No organized or widespread rainfall anticipated this week. Looking at isolated to scattered coverage of showers at times. Rainfall amounts will be generally light and sporadic. River levels will gradually fall through the week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ038-047- 058-063. MA...None. VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ013-014.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Evbuoma AVIATION...Thompson FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA

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