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000
FXUS61 KALY 232000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
400 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Another mild night ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold
front will cross the region late at night and Saturday morning
bringing some showers to the area, mainly to areas north and
west of the Capital District. With the passage of the front, a
cooler and more seasonable airmass will be ushered in with
temperatures falling Saturday afternoon. Dry and chilly
conditions Saturday night and Sunday. The start of the new week
will be unsettled with some wet snow possible for the southern
Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains early Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Mild night with a cold front on the approach from west and deep
southwest flow across the region. Lows will only drop down into
the 50s which is around normal levels for daytime highs for
late October. Stratus is expected to develop again across the
area this evening with limited fog with a southerly flow
persisting through the night. Winds will continue to be gusty
into the early evening. The cold front is expected to move into
the northwestern portion of the forecast area by sunrise
Saturday. Showers will occur ahead of the boundary late tonight
to the west and north of the Capital District with light QPF
amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers will diminish in coverage as the front moves across the
area through the morning as the upper level support weakens as
the short wave passes well to our northwest with ridging holding
on just off the east coast.

With the passage of the front cold air advection will occur and
temperatures will fall through the afternoon. Highs for the day
will range from the upper 40s across the western Adirondacks to
the mid 60s in the mid-Hudson Valley.

Chilly night Saturday night as temperatures drop into the mid
20s to mid 30s with high pressure building in. Light northerly
flow Sunday as the center of a surface high passes to our north.
Going to feel cold compared to recent days with highs only in
the 40s to lower 50s with some 30s across the highest terrain of
the southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains.

Weather turns unsettled as we close out the weekend and head
into next week. A short wave moving in across the Pacific
Northwest will dig a trough across the western and central
CONUS with deep southwest flow developing across our region.
Waves of low pressure will move along a boundary bringing rounds
of precipitation to the area beginning late Sunday night
through Monday and beyond. Of note is the chances for some
accumulating wet snow across portions of the southern
Adirondacks and southern Green Mountain late Sunday night into
early Monday morning as the precipitation overspreads the
region. Temperatures will rise and plain rain is then expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period will begin with a frontal boundary still draped
across our region. As the first wave of low pressure departs, a
secondary low looks to approach and move across our area from Monday
night through Tuesday with another period of rain. It is possible
enough cold air may lead to a brief period of light snow for the
highest elevations in the Adirondacks late Monday night into early
Tuesday morning and also Tuesday night, but little or no additional
accumulation is anticipated.

This front will drop to our south for Wednesday and Thursday as most
of this time should be dry as we will be in-between northern and
southern stream energy and surface high pressure attempts to build.

Unsettled weather may return to our region on Friday as a northern
stream upper-level shortwave and southern stream upper-level low
interact. As with upper-level lows, timing and tracking these
features, especially more than a few days out, is difficult and
model guidance has various solutions on how it may pan out. A
phasing of these systems could bring a more impactful system to our
region, while an unphasing will likely not. With it this far out,
will go with a blended approach, favoring a less impactful system at
this time, but will monitor trends over the coming days.

Temperatures during the long term will generally run slightly below
normal with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s (except some 30s in the
higher elevations, especially on Friday) and lows in the 20s and 30s
(except some lower 40s Monday night across the Capital District and
mid-Hudson Valley into Litchfield, CT).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front will continue lifting north of the TAF sites this
afternoon. A cold front will then sweep across the TAF sites
Saturday morning.

A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions (for Cigs) are expected for this
afternoon, with best chances for sustained MVFR at KPSF.

Cigs should drop to MVFR/IFR again after 00Z/Sat, with best
chances for IFR/LIFR conditions at KPSF (mainly after 07Z/Sat).
These conditions will be mainly for Cigs, although some MVFR
Vsbys can not be ruled out, especially at KPSF.

A cold front will pass across the TAF sites Saturday morning,
with most likely time of passage roughly between 13Z-15Z/Sat at
KGFL and KALB, and 14Z-17Z/Sat at KPSF and KPOU. Some passing
light showers/sprinkles will be possible with and just ahead of
the front, which may lower Vsbys into the MVFR range. Cigs are
expected to gradually lift to VFR toward and especially after
18Z/Sat.

Winds will be mainly from the south this afternoon at 8-15 KT,
with some gusts up to 20-25 KT possible, especially at KALB.
South to southwest winds should average 5-10 KT tonight,
although may still gust up to 20 KT at times at KALB and KPSF.
On Saturday, south/southwest winds will shift into the
west/northwest as the front passes and increase to 8-12 KT,
with some gusts of 20-25 KT possible (especially at KALB and
KPSF).

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The cold front will cross the region late at night and Saturday
morning bringing some showers to the area, mainly to areas
north and west of the Capital District. With the passage of the
front, a cooler and more seasonable airmass will be ushered in.

Dry and chilly conditions Saturday night and Sunday. The start
of the new week will be unsettled with some wet snow possible
for the southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains early
Monday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread or significant hydro problems are expected
through the next 7 days.

The cold front will cross the region late at night and Saturday
morning bringing some showers to the area, mainly to areas
north and west of the Capital District. QPF amounts will be very
light.

Drier and cooler conditions are forecast Saturday night through
Sunday. Then additional bouts of rain are expected Sunday night
through the middle of next week, as a series of low pressure
systems moves across the region. Appreciable rainfall could
occur for areas north and west of the Capital District, although
antecedent dry conditions should preclude any flooding.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA