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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 101958
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
358 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
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Continued below normal temperatures to start the week with
chilly nights. A disturbance in the upper levels of the
atmosphere will move through Tuesday afternoon into the evening
and may result some showers mainly north and west of the
Capital District.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Frost Advisory has been issued for the western Mohawk Valley
and eastern Catskills and for southern Vermont above 2000 feet
from 2 am to 8 am Tuesday.

Scattered showers mainly along and north of I-90 will continue
this afternoon. They will dissipate early this evening with
loss of heating and passage of a short wave.

Cloud cover will decrease as the night progresses with a light
westerly flow with some very weak ridging between short waves.
Temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s with lower 40s in
the mid-Hudson Valley into northwestern Connecticut.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Below normal temperatures will continue into mid-week as the
region remains under the influence of an upper level low.

The upper low and its associated cold pool will move across the
region Tuesday into Tuesday night and with another short wave
moving about low it will lead to chances for showers mainly to
the north and west of the Capital District. It will be another
day with cool temperatures; highs only in the 50s below 1500
feet with 40s about that. Some highs into the lower 60s are
possible in the mid-Hudson Valley.

Continued threat for isolated showers across the southern Green
Mountains Wednesday otherwise fair weather expected. Bit warmer
Wednesday than Tuesday by about 5 degrees; expecting lower 60s
up the Hudson River Valley with 50s elsewhere.

Chilly night with lows back down into the 30s both Tuesday and
Wednesday nights. Additional frost headlines are possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The long-term forecast period will feature near normal temperatures
(maybe slightly bias on the cooler side) and day-to-day chances for
showers with maybe some embedded isolated to scattered
thunderstorms (outside of Thursday).

During this period, while a broad area of high pressure will be
present at the surface, the ALY forecast area will be placed on top
of a weak upper level trough. A series of mid to upper level
perturbations/impulses tracking along a west-northwest oriented flow
aloft will raise prospects for day-to-day showers, particularly
during the afternoon hours Friday-Monday thanks to max differential
diurnal boundary heating. CAPE values upwards to about 500 J/kg or
so will support the possibility of thunderstorms. While DCAPE values
between 300-600 J/kg aren`t impressive, steep mid-level lapse rates
between 6-7 C/km could support some isolated strong thunderstorms
with gusty winds and small hail. Currently, we are not under any
risk for severe weather. That said, will have to keep close watch on
these instability values and trends going forward. Outside of that,
there will be many dry hours in between any showers and storms that
develop.

As mentioned earlier, temperature anomalies will be near normal
levels (maybe a tad bit slightly below normal for the balance of the
period. High temperatures Thursday-Monday will be right around 70F
into the lower 70s (cooler higher elevations). Low temperatures will
range in the mid 40s to lower 50s (cooler higher elevations) with
low temperatures increasing each passing night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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BKN/OVC stratocu deck is expected to remain in place through the
rest of the day. So far cigs have been borderline VFR/MVFR, but they
should trend more toward VFR as the boundary layer deepens this
afternoon. A few isolated showers have developed and will likely
continue into the evening hours, so VCSH wording was retained. The
stratocu are expected to scatter out tonight as diurnal heating
wanes and an upper level disturbance passes, with just lingering
areas of high cirrus. FEW/SCT high-based stratocu expected to
develop late Tuesday morning, with VFR cigs.

Winds will be from the north to west at 5 to 10 kt for the remainder
of the daylight hours, easing to 5 kt or less tonight into Tuesday
morning. Westerly winds will increase to around 10 kt with some
gusts to 20 kt late Tuesday morning to the end of the TAF period
(18Z Tue).

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...RA...TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...Gusts up 25 mph Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons...

-- Changed Discussion --
Continued below normal temperatures to start the week with
chilly nights. A disturbance in the upper levels of the
atmosphere will move through Tuesday afternoon into the evening
and may result some showers mainly north and west of the
Capital District.
-- End Changed Discussion --

Minimum relative humidity values are expected to be in the 30s
Tuesday afternoon and in the mid 30s to mid 40s Wednesday
afternoon. Relative humidity values will increase to 75 to near
100 percent tonight.

On Tuesday westerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. Winds will be northwesterly at 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No organized or widespread rainfall anticipated this week.
Looking at isolated to scattered coverage of showers at times.
Rainfall amounts will be generally light and sporadic. River
levels will gradually fall through the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes,
including observed and forecast river stages and lake
elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ038-047-
     058-063.
MA...None.
VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ013-014.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA