Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 012119 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 419 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Turning much colder tonight along with strong to damaging wind gusts occurring. Scattered snow showers along with a few embedded heavier squalls are possible this evening. The combination of the winds and cold temperatures will result in dangerous wind chills overnight into Tuesday morning, especially in the higher terrain. The blustery and cold conditions will persist into Tuesday.. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... High Wind Warning in effect for the Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, northern Catskills, Helderbergs and the Capital District through 1 PM Tuesday... Wind Advisory in effect for the rest of the area through 1 PM Tuesday... Wind Chill Advisory in effect for the western/southern Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County, eastern Catskills, southern Green Mountains and Berkshires from late this evening through much of Tuesday morning... Forecast remains on track. The region will be impacted by the passage of an Arctic front. Much colder air will be ushered on very strong and gusty winds tonight. Temperatures will tumble with lows all the down into the single digits with below zero values across the southern Adirondacks and higher terrain of the southern Green Mountains and teens in the mid-Hudson Valley. Already brisk and gusty westerly winds with winds becoming stronger with the passage of the Arctic boundary. Winds will shift more to the northwest with sustained speeds increasing to 20 to 30 mph. Deeper mixing with result in stronger gusts of 50 to 60 mph across the area. The strongest winds will occur tonight into early Tuesday morning. The combination of the winds and much cold temperatures will result in dangerous wind chills overnight especially in the higher terrain. Frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. This evening scattered snow showers will occur across the area with a few embedded heavier squalls are possible resulting in a sharp reductions in visibility along with roadways becoming slippery. This combined with dropping temperatures increases the risk of untreated surfaces becoming slippery. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Higher pressure builds in at surface Tuesday however pressure gradient across the region remains tight so strong and gusty winds will persist. They will begin to weaken during the afternoon and most notably in the evening. Despite sunshine it will be a cold day with highs mainly in the 20s with teens in the southern Adirondacks and higher terrain of the southern Green Mountains and around freezing in the mid-Hudson Valley. Ridging will try to build in aloft however another northern stream short wave will be on the approach suppressing it. This next system will be much weaker and will dampen as it moves through. Not nearly as cold Tuesday night, near seasonable levels, in the teens and lower 20s. Temperatures are expected to bounced back up to above normal Wednesday, 30s and 40s, with any snow showers limited to mainly the higher higher terrain to the northwest. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Generally, a rather minimal impact period of weather across the region as we remain within the northwest flow regime which will keep temperatures on the cooler side and low probabilities of snow showers (mainly across the higher terrain). A backdoor cold frontal boundary is expected to slide southward Thursday with mainly some clouds but a notable wind shift and a drop in the dewpoints. Could be a snow shower across the highest terrain. As H850 temperatures fall back well into the negative teens, look for highs into the 20s and 30s and overnight lows into the teens and 20s (which is near normal for the start of March). Friday, another boundary approaches from the north with some increase in baroclinicity and moisture wrapping in around upper low over the Canadian Maritimes. So some additional cloud coverage, mainly north of I90, as some potential for Lake Ontario seeder- feeder to commence and bring some snow showers across the higher terrain and western Mohawk Valley. A little cooler on Friday with mainly 20s to lower 30s for Capital Region and through the mid- Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County. The weekend, combination of some boundaries drifting southward with a digging upper trough across the northeast and mid-Atlantic to keep our weather a bit unsettled with small chances of snow showers. Again, minimal impacts are anticipated at this time with temperatures averaging below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A strong arctic cold front will arrive this evening mainly 01 - 05 UTC/Tuesday with snow showers or even some brief snow squalls possible. Best chance for snow squalls looks to be at GFL, ALB and PSF. During any snow squalls or strong snow showers, MVFR or brief IFR ceilings and visibilities may be possible. Due to low confidence of the exact placement of any snow squalls, we decided to only show MVFR conditions in the TEMPO group for this period. Westerly winds this afternoon will remain breezy sustained between 10 and 20 kts with gusts to 25 to 30kts at ALB, GFL and PSF. POU will not be as strong only sustained around 5-10kts. However, by 00 to 05 UTC/Tuesday, expect winds to shift to the northwest and become very strong. Sustained winds will range 15 to 25kts with gusts to 30 to 45kts. The strongest wind gusts are expected at ALB and PSF where brief gusts up to 50kts cannot be ruled out during this time period. After 05 UTC/Tuesday, strong winds will continue with sustained winds 10 to 20kts and gusts to 30-40kts possible through 10-12 UTC. After 12 UTC, winds will gradually weaken through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are expected through the upcoming week. Some melting and sublimation of the snowpack in the valleys is expected during the day time over the next several days with the exception of Tuesday as much colder air returns with sub-freezing temperatures expected to linger into Wednesday morning. River forecasts show minor up and down changes in river flows due to the diurnal freeze/thaw cycle. River ice is not expected to break up over the next several days. Mainly dry weather is expected for the remainder of the week, with below normal temperatures. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ001-013. NY...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ032-033-041>043- 054-059>061-063>066-082>084. Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ038-047-058-063. High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ038>040- 047>053-058. Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ032-033-042-082. MA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ001-025. Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ001-025. VT...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for VTZ013>015. Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ013-014. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...Speciale HYDROLOGY...IAA

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