National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 051730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will move east of New England today
with partly to mostly sunny conditions and seasonable temperatures.
Another low pressure system and cold front will increase clouds and
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday.
The unsettled weather continues into the mid week with scattered
showers continuing due to an upper level disturbance.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds forming over the region along the western edge of the
circulation around the upper low off New England. Some high
clouds and smoke aloft spreading across the region from central
and eastern Canada as well. Just minor adjustments to sky cover
and temperatures through this afternoon. Highs in the 70s with
some 60s higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight...Weak isentropic lift occurs ahead of the next short-
wave. A few showers may pop up with perhaps a rumble of thunder
as a disturbance moves south/southeast from Quebec and the
eastern Great Lakes Region. We did not add thunder in yet, but
have slight to low chances of showers for most of the region.
Lows will be a bit milder with more clouds around with mid 40s
to lower 50s.

Tuesday...The short-wave and a cold front will approach the
region with better chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Instability does not look moderate to abundant with SBCAPEs in
the 500-1000 J/kg range, as sfc dewpts will be in the 40s to
lower 50s. The flow will be north to northwest and the deeper
shear looks rather weak at 10-20 KT at best. Cooler lapse rates
will move in during the day. Not expecting much of a severe
threat and will continue to monitor before we add small
hail/gusty winds to the grids. SPC continues with "General
Thunder" which looks good. Highs will tend to run normal to
slightly below normal with 60s to lower 70s. A few mid 70s are
possible over the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW
CT.

Tue night into Wed...The short-wave passes south and east of the
region, but broader cyclonic flow re-establishes itself over the
forecast area. A slight to low chance of showers persists north
of the mid Hudson Valley. It will be cool and breezy with
northwest winds overnight. Lows will be mainly in the 40s with a
few lower 50s south of the Capital Region. A few upper 30s are
possible over the southern Dacks.

Wednesday features mostly cloudy conditions with intermittent
showers with a 500 hPa closed/cutoff low near eastern ME. H850
temps will be below normal by a couple standard deviations for
the date with the actual values in the +2C to +8C range from north
to south by the late afternoon. Rainfall is necessary and
scattered to numerous showers are possible with temps running
below normal by 5-10 DEG with mid 50s to mid 60s north of the
Tri Cities, and mid 60s to lower 70s along them and to the
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weather pattern during the long-term period looks to be
unsettled with at least near day-to-day chances for scattered
showers as mean upper level troughing rest overhead with multiple
disturbances moving through. Any showers that develop are most
favored to do so during the diurnal peak afternoon/evening hours.

Temperatures are progged to run below normal levels during the long-
term period with the aforementioned trough overhead. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s Thursday and Friday
before possibly getting back into the 70s Saturday through Monday.
Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mainly VFR conditions through tonight, although there could be
some slight vsby reductions due to haze/near-surface smoke from
upstream wildfires across eastern Canada, which could result in
borderline MVFR Vsbys. Also, there is an outside chance for
some localized fog at KGFL which could result in periods of
MVFR/IFR Vsbys late tonight through daybreak.

On Tuesday, an approaching upper level disturbance and cold
front will lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
at the TAF sites, especially after 14Z/Tue. Brief periods of
MVFR/IFR Vsbys could occur. Outside of these showers/isolated
thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected.

Winds will be north to northwest at 8-12 KT with a few gusts of
20-25 KT possible this afternoon. Winds will become
light/variable tonight through daybreak, then become north to
northwest at 5-10 KT by mid morning Tuesday into the early
afternoon. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in
and near any isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...KL