Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 032330 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 730 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Coastal storm will move gradually away from the region, however clouds are expected linger into Saturday morning. Mild with some sunshine for Saturday afternoon. Clouds move back in for Sunday as a cold front approaches and moves through with some showers possible. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 730 PM EDT, cool and damp conditions prevail, with bands of rain showers continuing to spiral southwest/west across the region. Upstream radars across northern New England continue to show additional bands, so have kept scattered showers in forecast regionwide through at least midnight, then tapering to isolated thereafter. In between these bands of showers, patchy/areas of drizzle will be possible as well. The coastal storm located off the New England coast will continue to impact the region. Its extensive cloud shield will remain over the area through the night. However the chances for showers will decrease after midnight as the low moves away from the region and high pressure begins to build in at the surface and aloft. It will be mild with lows in the mid and upper 30s with lower 40s up the Hudson River Valley into the Capital District. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Clouds are expected to linger in Saturday morning across the area with some breaks of sunshine possible for the afternoon as high pressure continues to build in. With the mild start to the day and some sunshine highs in the 50s are expected below 1500 feet with mid and upper 40s above that. Winds will be very light. Dry and tranquil weather continues through Saturday night with lows in the 30s. On Sunday, mid and high level clouds will be increase as a cold front approaches. There is limited moisture associated with the boundary and forcing will be weak as northern stream short wave passes well to our north. Can`t rule out some brief showers during the afternoon into the evening, have mainly slight chance pops. Overall the front will pass through with little impact. Mild temperatures mainly in the 50s with 60 degrees in some areas up the Hudson River Valley into the Capital District. Decreasing clouds Sunday night with sunshine for Monday as high pressure builds in at the surface and aloft. Lows mainly in the 30s with some 20s in the southern Adirondacks and high terrain of the southern Green Mountains. Highs in the 50s Monday with lower to mid 60s in the Hudson River Valley up into the Capital District. Any 40s will be limited to above 2000 feet in on the southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday night into Tuesday, northwesterly flow around the periphery of a closed low over the Canadian Maritimes will promote subsidence and dry conditions. The flow flattens out for the middle to the end of the week, and one or more disturbances in the flow are forecast to bring periods of precipitation. There continues to be low confidence in the timing of these waves due to the lack of intermodel and run-to-run consistency. Will continue to broad-brush the Wednesday-Thursday period with chance PoPs. If there is one consistent feature in the models, it is that the lead wave appears to be a progressive, low-amplitude disturbance, and the trailing disturbance is a larger closed low. These disturbances will be coming in from the northwest, so will be unlikely to result in a good tropical moisture feed and heavy rain threat. Some showers could linger into Friday if the low slows down, which often occurs with cutoffs this time of year. Temperatures are expected to begin the period several degrees above normal, then trend near to below normal as the forecasted disturbances bring in progressively cooler air. Current expectation is for the majority of the precipitation to be in the form of rain, although some high-terrain snow is possible, particularly during the nighttime hours. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR ceilings with scattered showers will continue this evening with the greatest concentration of showers across KALB/KPSF/KPOU. Activity will begin to taper off after midnight, although some patchy drizzle may linger. Ceilings should gradually improve tonight into tomorrow morning to at least low- end VFR, but a few MVFR periods may still occur. Mainly VFR conditions are expected Saturday afternoon, although can not rule out some patches of MVFR Cigs lingering, esp at KPSF. Wind will be out of the north to northeast this evening at 8-12 kt across the TAF sites with some higher gusts up to 20-25 KT, especially at KPOU and KPSF. Wind will then be out of the north to northeast later tonight through Saturday at 5-10 kt. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Coastal storm will move gradually away from the region however clouds are expected linger into Saturday morning. Mild with sunshine for Saturday afternoon with minimum relative humidity levels in the 50s. Clouds move back in for Sunday as a cold front approaches and moves through with some showers possible. && .HYDROLOGY... At this time, the Hudson River at Poughkeepsie (POUN6) is forecast to exceed flood stage during Saturday morning high tide cycle. Otherwise no flooding issues are anticipated over the next several day with mainly fair weather through the weekend and into early next week. The next chance of widespread rain appears to be Wednesday into Thursday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA/KL SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Thompson AVIATION...KL/Rathbun FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA

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