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480
FXUS61 KALY 240235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
935 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to allow for dry and
cold weather with variable cloudiness overnight into tomorrow.  A
storm system will bring rain and a wintry mix to the region for
Saturday into Saturday night, with the best chance of snow and ice
across the higher elevations.  A few lingering rain and snow showers
are expected Sunday before dry weather returns for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 935 PM EST...High pressure continues to dominate over the
Northeast at the sfc and aloft. In the southwest flow aloft,
high clouds continue to filter in, and we kept it mostly cloudy.
Light to calm winds with dry low-levels with some breaks in the
clouds will allow for some radiational cooling, as temps have
fallen into the teens in the Upper Hudson Valley/Lake George and
Glens Falls areas. We lowered temps a few degrees in those
locations, as well as the southern Adirondacks. The 00Z KALY
sounding nicely shows the high clouds, and the dry low- levels
with a PWAT of 0.17"

Expect lows in the teens and 20s across the region with the
colder values mainly north of the I-90 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather is expected to continue for Friday into Friday
night, as the upper level ridging remains in place, while a
closed low only slowly moves across the Midwest. Surface high
pressure will remain nearby the region across southeastern
Canada, keeping subsidence in place. With relatively warm temps
aloft, max temps will be mild for late January, with highs in
the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Although skies should be partly cloudy for Friday, cloud cover
will steadily increase for Friday night as the large upper level
low finally starts heading towards the area. Based off the
latest model guidance, it should remain dry for nearly all of
Friday night. With the increasing clouds, lows will only be in
the mid to upper 20s for most spots.

On Saturday, the large closed upper level low will be
approaching the area from the Ohio Valley. A wave of low
pressure located along the storm`s occluded front will be headed
northeast from the mid Atlantic towards the Northeast. A strong
south-southeast flow will be in place at low to mid levels, with
a low-level jet of over 50 kts. A band of steady precip looks to
be lifting northeast towards the area for Saturday, with the
bulk of the precip expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. The precip looks like it could be moderate in intensity
for a while due to the strong low-level jet, especially in areas
where the flow upslopes the terrain (such as the southeastern
Catskills and high terrain of western New England).

P-type has been varying between model guidance, especially over
the last few runs, but the trend has been warmer. There should
be a warm nose between 800-900 mb, with temps as warm as +3 C
and the surface layer will be warming due to the low-level
southeast flow as well. For most of the region, there may be a
brief window of snow/sleet at the onset, but the bulk of the
precip through Saturday evening should be rain. Across the
Adirondacks, temps should stay cold enough for precip to remain
a wintry mix for most of Saturday, with a light accumulation of
snow and ice. Temps should mainly be in the 30s for Saturday. In
addition, some gusty winds are possible across the Taconics and
western New England due to the strong S-SE jet, especially in
areas of channeled flow.

By Saturday night, the low pressure area will be lifting
northeast and our region will start to be influenced by the
cyclonic flow around the large upper level low. This will allow
for cooling temps aloft, changing precip over to snow across the
high terrain with rain showers for valley areas. However, the
steadiest precip looks to be exiting and it should start to
become more areas of precip. Temps look to remain fairly steady
in the 30s.

With the upper level low moving from Upstate New York towards
northern New England, some additional rain and snow showers are
expected on Sunday, especially across the Adirondacks. A light
accumulation of snow is possible for the high terrain due to the
additional precip from the cyclonic flow and lake enhancement.
Valley areas may be warmer enough for rain or a rain/snow mix,
but any accumulation looks limited to the higher terrain, with
temps still fairly steady in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended opens with unsettled weather, but then fair weather
returns for the mid week.

A cutoff upper low continues to bring mainly snow showers to the
forecast area, especially from the Capital Region and the Berkshires
north and west. The cyclonic vorticity advection will help focus the
pcpn.  The upper level low moves downstream on Monday with the snow
showers ending. Some light accumulations are possible along the
westerly upslope sections of the western Adirondacks, and southern
Greens. Lows Sunday night will be in the 20s to around 30F in a few
locations. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s in
the valleys and upper 20s to mid 30s over the higher terrain. Lows
Monday night will be in the teens and 20s.

A cold front moves through Tuesday with little low-level moisture to
work with except a few snow showers and flurries over the western
Adirondacks.  Highs will be in the mid 20s to upper 30s.

High pressure builds in south of James Bay Tuesday night through
Thursday with fair, and seasonably cold weather.  A storm system
will be sliding east of the region over the Mid Atlantic States with
ridging holding over the Northeast according to GEFS/ECMWF/GFS.
Temps will be near normal to slightly above normal for late Jan.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will be in control tonight into tomorrow along and
near the NY and New England Coast.

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 00Z/SAT for
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. Some mid and high clouds will persist
tonight, and then decrease between 11Z-14Z/FRI. Cirrus clouds
will increase with southwest flow aloft tomorrow afternoon.

The winds will be calm tonight, and light and variable direction
at 3 to 6 kts Fri afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...RA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Monday To Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As high pressure slowly departs, dry weather will continue for
tonight through Friday night across the region. This will allow
for river and stream levels to remain steady.

Over the weekend, a storm system will bring rain and a wintry
mix to the region, with the best chance for snow and ice across
the higher elevations. Valley areas look to see a period of
moderate rainfall Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening,
which may allow for some ponding of water on roadways and in
other low lying areas. Total liquid equivalent will generally be
one half inch to one inch and a quarter. This will cause for
some rises on rivers and streams (especially across the
Catskills and western New England), but no flooding is expected.
Dry weather will then return for early next week, allowing for
flows to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...Frugis