Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 171033 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 633 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching warm front will bring increasing clouds today, with showers developing from southwest to northeast this afternoon into tonight. Cool and unsettled conditions will continue through Friday, with occasional showers. Improving conditions arrive for the upcoming weekend, although temperatures will remain a bit below normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...As of 620 AM EDT, skies are mainly clear with just some patchy high clouds passing through. Temps range from the mid/upper 20s across the SW Adirondacks, to the mid 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. With this update, just some very minor adjustments to current temps/dewpoints and wind based on latest obs. [PREVIOUS 349 AM EDT]...As of 345 AM EDT, skies remain mostly clear outside of some patchy high thin clouds. Temperatures have dropped into the upper 20s to lower/mid 30s across the southern Adirondacks, with generally mid 30s to lower/mid 40s elsewhere. A light northerly breeze has kept temperatures slightly elevated within portions of the Hudson River Valley from Albany northward. Skies will start out mostly sunny today, with clouds then increasing and thickening from southwest to northeast later this morning through this afternoon, well ahead of an approaching warm front. Showers will gradually expand northeast into the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Schoharie County and western Mohawk Valley by mid to late afternoon, with some showers possibly advancing as far north/east as the Capital Region closer to, or just after sunset. Despite the increasing cloud cover, temps should still reach the lower/mid 60s in many valley areas, warmest within the Hudson Valley from Albany northward, as well as portions of far northern Herkimer/Hamilton Cos where some downsloping from a southeast breeze enhances warming. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Isentropic lift and mid level frontogenesis increase tonight ahead of approaching warm/occluded front. Upper level confluent flow will maintain high pressure and subsidence just north and east of the region, and may erode approaching rain bands across the far upper Hudson Valley into southern VT. Elsewhere, periods of light to moderate rain are expected tonight into much of Thursday. As a shallow wedge of slightly drier air advances south and west during Thursday, enhanced wet bulb cooling may allow temps to drop through the day in some areas, making for a rather raw day as temps either hold, or even fall through the 40s. Rain should become more intermittent later Thursday, and may taper off to spotty drizzle later Thursday night as best forcing decreases with shearing upper level system. Lows Thursday night in the mid 30s to around 40. The combination of an approaching cold front from the west, and weak low pressure south of Long Island will keep mostly cloudy skies Friday, with showers increasing in coverage once again from west to east late in the day, with showers continuing into Friday night as the front crosses the region. Friday high temps should reach into the 50s for most valley areas and 45-50 across higher terrain areas. Lows Friday night in the mid 30s to lower/mid 40s, warmest in valley areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper level trough will be moving across the Northeast on Saturday. Although moisture is fairly limited, enough forcing thanks to the cyclonic flow in place could allow for a few light rain showers, mainly for northern and western areas, on Saturday. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, with the most cloud cover across northern areas (especially early in the day). With the cold pool overhead, temps will be a little on the cool side on Saturday, with 50s for most spots (40s across the high terrain). Temps will be chilly on Saturday night with lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s. While it should be dry on Sunday, heights will only be slowly rising. Temps aloft will remain chilly, so cool daytime temps will continue, with most spots still in the 50s. With high pressure building into the area, dry weather should continue with skies clearing out, especially by the afternoon hours. With high pressure in control, it will remain dry on Monday. Warming temps aloft should allow for a warmer day, with highs back up into the 60s for Monday afternoon with a mostly sunny sky. Some clouds may return by Tuesday as the next system starts to approach. A few showers are possible by later in the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night, especially western areas. Temps will continue to be seasonable. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Flying conditions are currently VFR with just some thin high clouds in place over the region. However, mid and high clouds will be increasing this morning for all sites from southwest to northeast. KPOU will see clouds become bkn-ovc by the mid to late morning hours, with the other sites taking until the afternoon hours. It will remain VFR through much of the day for all sites. KPOU will see some light rain arriving by the late afternoon hours, with light rain taking until 00z Thursday or later to arrive at the other sites. Once rainfall arrives, MVFR conditions for visibility and ceilings look to be in place for the evening and into tonight. Precip will be light and intermittent overnight, although low level moisture will be increasing thanks to a persistent southerly flow. Some IFR conditions (mainly for ceilings) will be possible by later in the night as well, although not enough confidence to include just yet. Light and variable winds will become southeast for all sites around 5 to 8 kts. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis

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