Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 270221 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1021 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the area this afternoon and evening, with clearing skies overnight. Mainly dry and seasonably warm weather is expected Thursday and Friday. Periods of showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Friday night into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Just a few showers left heading into VT. Otherwise, mostly clear tonight and some patchy fog is possible in some areas around daybreak. Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s Previous AFD has a few more details and is below... A dry night with decreasing clouds is expected with subsidence in the wake of the departing wave. Some patches of fog in low- lying areas cannot be ruled out, especially in any areas that see a downpour with thunderstorms this afternoon. Lows will be slightly elevated compared with normal. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thursday, we will start the day under subsidence from the departing wave. A slightly drier airmass will be in place as well with PWATs generally under an inch. A weak wave will be tracking across northern NY into northern New England late in the day, but should be far enough removed from the local area to spare us any noticeable weather. Expect a good deal of sunshine with high temps a bit above normal. Humidity will not be too oppressive for this time of year with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s in the afternoon. Tranquil weather again Thursday night with weak high pressure over the area and lows slightly warmer than normal. Tranquil weather continues into at least the first part of Friday. Deep moisture will increase in the afternoon and evening as low to mid-level winds strengthen and bring in higher theta-e values from the west. Chances for rainfall increase late Friday into Friday night, although there is quite a bit of uncertainty. Showers and thunderstorms look to develop to our west during the day where instability is greater, with some of this activity tracking toward our northern and western zones by Friday evening. Some of this activity may spread across our forecast area by Friday night, or convectively generated vorticity maxima may generate additional convection over the local area, although possibly in a weakened state due to it encountering a more stable airmass. The NAM solution of a well- organized MCS tracking into our forecast area Friday night appears to be an outlier, and it appears more likely that we will be on the more stable side of the instability gradient. Still, enough signal to keep chance PoPs with slight chance thunder in the forecast Friday night. Much of the forecast area looks to stay dry during the daytime hours Friday. Seasonably warm weather continues Friday into Friday night with dewpoints increasing Friday night, becoming more muggy. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper energy dropping south out of SE Canada will affect our region Saturday into Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms. Then just some lingering isolated to scattered activity Sunday as cooler and drier air moves in. Considerable cooling aloft Sunday will also support some isolated to scattered showers and a possible rumble of thunder Sunday. There will be a brief cool down into Monday before the upper energy builds east and flat upper ridging very slowly builds east into our region. There are hints that one piece of more organized upper energy could track along the leading edge of better warm advection and leading edge of the flat upper ridging around Tuesday into Wednesday but there are disagreements in timing, track and strength of low level forcing. So, after dry weather Sunday night into early Tuesday, more scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs Saturday ahead of the cold front in the 80s but cooler in higher terrain. Highs Sunday in the 70s to around 80 but some 60s in northern areas. Highs Monday in the 70s to around 80. Highs Tuesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s but cooler in higher elevations. Highs Wednesday in the lower to mid 80s but some 70s in higher terrain. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Included TEMPO for thunderstorms at KPOU and KPSF ending by 02Z with MVFR conditions during the thunderstorms. Clearing the rest of the evening with VFR conditions until some patchy fog develops after about 07Z, especially at KGFL. VFR conditions expected Thursday morning. Winds become light and variable overnight tonight but brief gusts to 25 Kt are possible in thunderstorms through 02Z this evening. West to northwest winds at around 10 kt are forecast for Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread across the forecast area from west to east this afternoon and evening. In their wake, a period of mainly dry and seasonably warm weather is expected Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH values will be generally in the 40 to 50 percent range each day. A moderate westerly breeze will develop during the day on Thursday, becoming lighter on Friday. Periods of showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Friday night into the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Activity should be progressive and deep moisture is not impressive, so the potential for flooding is low. Brief heavy downpours are always possible in thunderstorms. After a mainly dry period Thursday and Thursday night, periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday night into the weekend. No significant flooding is expected at this time and all rivers and creeks should stay well within bank full. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thompson NEAR TERM...NAS/Thompson SHORT TERM...Thompson LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...Thompson HYDROLOGY...Thompson

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