Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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695 FXUS61 KALY 181432 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1032 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS... It will remain warm through the rest of the week with daytime temperatures reaching into the 80s in many areas for Wednesday through Friday. Although it should be dry over the next few days, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will return later in the week, with the highest chance over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Updated at 1030 AM EDT... A patch of mid-level cloud cover is drifting south-southeast around the edge of a developing upper level ridge building over the Great Lakes and will continue to bring some clouds to much of our area into early this afternoon. These clouds will tend to dissipate this afternoon but some cu will be developing mainly over higher terrain. Overall it looks to be a partly sunny day in store with temperatures climbing well in the 70s. As of 645 AM EDT...Upper level ridge axis extends northward across the Southeast towards the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Our area continues to be dominated by northwesterly flow aloft as a weak upper level disturbance passes around the corner of the upper level ridge as it heads across Quebec and towards northern New England. IR satellite imagery shows some mid level cloudiness associated with this disturbance moving across the region, mainly northern and eastern areas. There hasn`t been any showers, as the weak forcing, limited moisture aloft and low dewpoints have prevented any showers from occurring across our area. Will keep POPs low through the morning hours, but sct to bkn mid level clouds will continue over the next few hours. Otherwise, these morning clouds will be breaking for a mostly sunny afternoon for the entire area as the disturbance moves away from the area. Behind the departing upper level disturbance, good daytime mixing is expected and 850 hpa temps will be around 8 to 10 C. This should allow for highs to reach well into the 70s for most areas, with a few spots nearing 80 in the Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley. The decent mixing will make for a somewhat breezy afternoon, with some afternoon gusts over 20 mph possible. With the good mixing expected to occur, have lowered dewpoints below guidance, as recent dewpoints have been fairly low due to very dry conditions in place. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridge axis will be shifting eastward towards the Northeast for the short-term period. With the building heights and warming temps aloft, temperatures will be well above normal over the next few days. With a mostly clear sky and decreasing winds, temps tonight look to lower to the mid 40s to low 50s across the area. Probably not much radiational fog will form tonight due to the short overnight period and fairly dry air mass in place, as well as the lack of rainfall that has occurred recently. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day since late August of last year. With the ridge axis overhead, a mostly sunny sky and 850 hpa temps reaching 12 to 14 C will allow for highs to reach well into the 80s for valley areas. Have gone along the higher end of the blended guidance for max temps, with some mid 80s within the immediate Hudson Valley. Can`t totally rule out a brief shower developing late in the day within the highest terrain, but this is a low probability, as the strong ridging and limited moisture should help prevent much convection from developing. Despite the very warm temps, dewpoints should remain mostly in the 40s, so it may not feel too muggy, although the temperatures are very warm for mid May. Another quiet night is expected for Wednesday night with a partly cloudy sky and temps falling into the 50s. Another warm day is expected on Thursday, with highs reaching into the 80s for valley areas once again. There may be a few more clouds for Thursday. Some guidance suggests that some afternoon showers or t-storms could develop, as an upper level disturbance rides across the northern periphery of the ridge. Coverage is still somewhat uncertain, but it will probably be fairly limited due to the lack of deep moisture available. Have gone with slight chc POPs, but most areas will probably wind up remaining dry through the day. Dewpoints may finally reach into the 50s, so it will start to feel just slightly more muggy (although not really uncomfortable just yet). It will remain partly cloudy right into Thursday night with lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Quite a difference in model guidance through this period, which leads to lower than normal forecast confidence. We will start the period under the influence of an upper-level ridge across the eastern CONUS, though the strength of the ridge differs amongst the guidance. The GFS is weaker with the ridge versus the ECMWF/Canadian and as a result is wetter and also lower with temperatures. The GFS suggests scattered to widespread precipitation chances each day through Sunday with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. The ECMWF/Canadian suggest isolated, at best, coverage of precipitation on Friday with a better chance over the weekend (with the ridge weakening, similar to the GFS) with highs most days in the 70s and 80s. Due to the differences in guidance, the forecast consisted of generally holding with NBM guidance for now, which places the forecast in-between model solutions. This will result in at least slight chance to chance pops for precipitation each day through Sunday with highs generally between 70-80 degrees and lows mainly in the 50s. There will be a chance for a thunderstorm each afternoon during the time of peak heating. A cold front may progress southward across our region late Sunday as high pressure builds in from Canada. This could result in a dry day Monday with slightly lower humidity, but given the chaotic pattern, this could change as it gets closer. Highs Monday may range from the upper 60s in the higher terrain to the upper 70s in the valleys. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12z/Wed...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. The next 24 hours will feature nothing more than occasional mid and high clouds. No precipitation nor fog development is expected. Winds will be light and variable to start, then increase out of the west to northwest at 7-14 kt this afternoon with gusts to 20 kt possible (mainly at KALB/KPSF). Wind will lessen this evening, then become calm tonight. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Upper level disturbance is moving through the region this morning, but limited moisture is preventing anything more than just isolated early morning showers. Otherwise, morning clouds will break, allowing for a warm and mostly sunny day. With good mixing in place, RH values will drop to 25 to 35 percent this afternoon. Westerly winds will be 5 to 15 mph today and a few gusts could exceed 20 mph this afternoon. Although RH values should recover above 75 percent for most areas tonight, they will lower once again to near 30 percent on Wednesday afternoon, with another very warm and sunny afternoon. West to northwest winds will be 5 mph or less for Wednesday. There may be some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning on Thursday, although the best chance may not be until the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the rest of the week. Dry conditions are expected over the next few days. The threat for some scattered showers and thunderstorms will return beginning on Thursday, with the highest chance over the weekend. With basin average amounts expected to be fairly low due to the scattered nature of any precipitation, river and streams levels are expected to remain fairly steady or slowly fall through the weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...MSE/Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Rathbun FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis

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