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000
FXUS61 KALY 171736
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
136 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this afternoon with some
rain showers. Behind the front, gusty winds and colder
temperatures will move into the region. Most areas will see
tempertures dropping near or below freezing tonight.
Temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     Please note that the KENX radar will be down all day due to
the replacement of the gear box. We apologize for any
inconvenience this may cause....

As of 1235 PM EDT, band of rain showers continues tracking E/SE
across the SW Adirondacks and west/central Mohawk Valley. Peak
wind gust of 39 mph noted at NYS Mesonet site at Herkimer.
Addressing gusty winds with these showers with SPS`s as needed
due to the convective nature. Additional gusts of 40-50 mph are
possible within these showers, especially within valley areas
which heated up earlier today with sunshine, steepening low
level lapse rates.

Temperatures will continue spiking ahead of the front, with
upper 50s to lower 60s expected in valley areas, and lower/mid
50s across higher terrain areas. Behind the front, temps will
fall back into and through the 40s by mid to late afternoon in
valley areas, and into the mid/upper 30s across higher terrain.
Lake effect/enhanced showers will persist across the far western
Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Co, eastern Catskills and SW
Adirondacks, with a mix or changeover to snow occurring,
initially for elevations above 1800 feet, then lowering to above
1200 feet by late afternoon/sunset.

Wind gusts of 30-40 mph will likely continue behind the front,
strongest within channeled flow within the Mohawk River
Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires.

Previous discussion follows...

As of 1030 AM EDT, rain showers have begun moving into the Dacks
as the upper level trough begins to move overhead and as the
cold frontal boundary approaches. Current surface observations
indicate the cold front is located across western New York along
the eastern edge of the lake boundaries. Winds are expected to
become gusty this afternoon along and ahead of the front, with
gusts up to 33 mph so far in the Mohawk and Schoharie valleys,
per NYS mesonet observations. Gusts up to 25 to 40 mph will be
possible both pre- and post-frontal passage so cannot rule out
a few isolated power outages and tree limbs downed.

All that aside, temps currently range from the low 40s to low
50s with ample sunshine present south of the Capital District.
However, clouds will be increasing through the remainder of the
day so highs will likely top out in the mid 40s in the high
terrain to mid 50s in the valleys. Further details regarding the
forecast follow...

As of 638 AM EDT...Fast moving upper level shortwave trough is
located over the Great Lakes and is headed eastward towards our
area. At the surface, a sharp cold frontal boundary is located
over Michigan and Ontario and will be moving across western New
York this morning. The flow in the low to mid levels ahead of
this system is out of the southwest, which is picking up some
moisture off the eastern Great Lakes. Aided by upslope, some
showers have been ongoing this morning across the western and
central Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Temps aloft are
marginal for wintry precip and boundary layer temps look to be
just warm enough for precip to be mainly liquid precip (surface
temps according to the NYS Mesonet are in the upper 30s to low
40s).  Upstream radar estimates and surface observations show
this precip to be very light, so only expecting under a tenth of
an inch this morning as showers push eastward across our far
northwestern areas.

Outside of the Adirondacks, skies are have been fairly clear
overnight, but clouds will be increasing quickly this morning as
the storm system approaches the area.   By around noon, this
front will be moving into eastern New York. 3km HRRR suggest a
broken band of fast-moving showers will be ahead/along this
boundary as it moves across our area for early this afternoon.
With a strong wind field aloft (500 hpa u-winds are about 3-4
STD above normal), cannot rule out some gusty winds be
transported down to the surface within the locally heavier
showers. Some gusts could reach 35-45 mph within and immediately
behind these showers, and this may allow for some isolated tree
damage/power outages. These winds would be below advisory
threshold, but will mention risk for localized issues within the
HWO and via social media. Even behind the front, there could be
a few additional light rain showers (mainly for upslope and
lake-enhanced areas), which p-type perhaps mixing with snow
across the highest elevations.

Ahead of the boundary, max temps look to reach the mid 40s to
mid 50s across the area by early afternoon. The front should be
through the area by mid-afternoon and westerly winds behind the
front will allow temps to start to fall. We will continue to see
some gusts of 25-35 mph behind the front within the cold air
advection through the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The core of the upper level trough will be passing over the
region tonight, with 850 hpa temps falling to -9 to -12 degrees
C, about 2 to 3 STD below normal for mid-October. Even with the
gusty winds remaining place, many valley areas within the Hudson
Valley will be seeing the first freeze of the season (about a
week or so later than the average median date for first Fall
freeze). The unique (and fairly unusual) aspect is that this
will be an advective freeze and most first freezes are usually
due to good radiational cooling. As a result of the wind, actual
frost formation could be limited in some areas, but with temps
expected to reach the mid 20s to low 30s, have included all of
the Hudson Valley and S. Litchfield within a Freeze Warning,
which will end the growing season for these areas. The only area
that could be marginal is right along the Hudson River near the
Poughkeepsie-Highland area, but even there, temps should be
rather close to the freezing mark.

In addition, a band of lake effect precipitation looks to
organize this evening off the eastern Great Lakes. Initially,
the flow will be westerly, allowing for a broken band of light
rain and snow showers to impact the Mohawk Valley. However, the
flow will be shifting northwest as the trough continues to push
eastward and the band will be stretching across central NY
towards Schoharie County and the eastern Catskills. As the
boundary layer cools off, p-type will switch to all snow.
Amounts look fairly light (snow accumulation will generally just
be a half inch or less and limited mainly to colder non-paved
and grassy surfaces). Best accumulation looks to occur before
midnight, as the shifting flow will allow for a shorter fetch
over Lake Ontario and drier air will continue to work its way
into the region.

Outside of the lake-effect band, sky cover will be decreasing
through the night. Lows across the region will range from the
low 20s to the low 30s.

Dry weather is expected through all off Thursday into Thursday
night. A large area of high pressure will be located over the
Midwest on Thursday and will build towards the mid-Atlantic for
Thursday night. There still will be enough of a gradient in
place to keep some gusty winds around for Thursday, with some
northwest winds gusting over 25 mph within daytime mixing.
However, winds should finally diminish for Thursday night. With
the cool temps aloft, highs on Thursday will only reach the mid
30s to mid 40s across the area (about 15 degrees below normal).
Skies will range from partly to mostly sunny, with the most
clouds over the high terrain. Lows on Thursday night will be in
the upper 20s to low 30s.

As the high pressure starts to shift eastward, warm advection on
the backside of this system will be in place on Friday morning,
bringing milder temps aloft to return to the region. This will
allow temps to reach back into the mid 50s for most spots on
Friday with a mostly sunny sky.

Clouds will start to increase for Friday night, as the next
system approaches from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A few
light rain showers ahead of this are possible on Fri night,
mainly for after midnight. With the increasing clouds and
south to southwest breeze ahead of the next storm, temps won`t
fall too much for Friday night with lows in the upper 30s to
upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Below normal temperatures will dominate the period as a long wave
trough develops over the region.

Saturday will be the mildest day of the period however it will be
unsettled as a rather strong cold front sweeps across region bringing
rain showers to the area. The best chances for showers will be to the
northwest of the Capital District and across the higher terrain of
southern Vermont. Expecting highs from the mid 40s to upper 50s
ahead of the cold front.

With the passage of the front strong cold advection will occur with
temperatures expected to fall into the upper 20s to upper 30s Saturday
night. Chances for showers, rain and snow, will linger Saturday night
especially for areas west of the Hudson River Valley.

Sunday is expected to be chilly and brisk with highs struggling to rise.
Expecting highs only from the mid 30s to upper 40s which is around 15
degrees below normal. Apparent temperatures are expected to be only
in the 20s and 30s much of the day.

Short waves will maintain the trough over the region through at least
early next week which will keep temperatures below normal, clouds
dominating and a continued threat for rain and snow showers especially
to the northwest of the Capital District.

Another low pressure system is expected to approach and move across the
region Tuesday bringing chances for rain and snow showers to the area
especially across the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers associated with a cold front continue to sweep through
the forecast area this afternoon, bringing a period of gusty
winds to the TAF sites. The showers may briefly reduce
conditions to MVFR but should generally remain VFR through the
forecast period. Beyond 00Z/Thur, chances for showers will
diminish and cloud cover will decrease.

West to southwest winds at 10-20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph
will continue ahead of the front, but then shift to the west-
northwest and become stronger behind the frontal passage. Sustained
winds in the teens and gusts of 25 to 35 knots are expected
with the strongest winds at KALB and KPSF. Winds will remain
brisk overnight.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong cold front will pass through the region with a few
scattered light rain showers. RH values will fall to 55 to 75
percent this afternoon. Ahead of the front, south to southwest
winds will be 5 to 10 mph, but will switch to the west at 10 to
25 mph this afternoon, with a few higher gusts. RH values will
recover overnight to 75 to 95 percent with some frost
development. RH values will be as low as 35 to 45 percent on
Thursday with northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the rest of the
week.

A strong cold front will pass through today, but this front
will be fairly moisture starved and won`t produce much rain
showers. Behind this system, some lake effect rain or snow
showers will impact the western Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley,
Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills, but precip amounts will
be very light.

Dry weather is then expected for Thursday into Friday. Another
cold front may bring a few more rain showers for Friday night
into Saturday, but this precipitation will also be fairly
scattered and light in intensity. River and stream levels will
generally hold steady through this period.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     CTZ013.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL/JLV
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/JLV
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis