Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 051730 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 130 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will move east of New England today with partly to mostly sunny conditions and seasonable temperatures. Another low pressure system and cold front will increase clouds and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday. The unsettled weather continues into the mid week with scattered showers continuing due to an upper level disturbance. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Clouds forming over the region along the western edge of the circulation around the upper low off New England. Some high clouds and smoke aloft spreading across the region from central and eastern Canada as well. Just minor adjustments to sky cover and temperatures through this afternoon. Highs in the 70s with some 60s higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tonight...Weak isentropic lift occurs ahead of the next short- wave. A few showers may pop up with perhaps a rumble of thunder as a disturbance moves south/southeast from Quebec and the eastern Great Lakes Region. We did not add thunder in yet, but have slight to low chances of showers for most of the region. Lows will be a bit milder with more clouds around with mid 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday...The short-wave and a cold front will approach the region with better chances of showers and thunderstorms. Instability does not look moderate to abundant with SBCAPEs in the 500-1000 J/kg range, as sfc dewpts will be in the 40s to lower 50s. The flow will be north to northwest and the deeper shear looks rather weak at 10-20 KT at best. Cooler lapse rates will move in during the day. Not expecting much of a severe threat and will continue to monitor before we add small hail/gusty winds to the grids. SPC continues with "General Thunder" which looks good. Highs will tend to run normal to slightly below normal with 60s to lower 70s. A few mid 70s are possible over the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT. Tue night into Wed...The short-wave passes south and east of the region, but broader cyclonic flow re-establishes itself over the forecast area. A slight to low chance of showers persists north of the mid Hudson Valley. It will be cool and breezy with northwest winds overnight. Lows will be mainly in the 40s with a few lower 50s south of the Capital Region. A few upper 30s are possible over the southern Dacks. Wednesday features mostly cloudy conditions with intermittent showers with a 500 hPa closed/cutoff low near eastern ME. H850 temps will be below normal by a couple standard deviations for the date with the actual values in the +2C to +8C range from north to south by the late afternoon. Rainfall is necessary and scattered to numerous showers are possible with temps running below normal by 5-10 DEG with mid 50s to mid 60s north of the Tri Cities, and mid 60s to lower 70s along them and to the south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The weather pattern during the long-term period looks to be unsettled with at least near day-to-day chances for scattered showers as mean upper level troughing rest overhead with multiple disturbances moving through. Any showers that develop are most favored to do so during the diurnal peak afternoon/evening hours. Temperatures are progged to run below normal levels during the long- term period with the aforementioned trough overhead. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s Thursday and Friday before possibly getting back into the 70s Saturday through Monday. Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s for the most part. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Mainly VFR conditions through tonight, although there could be some slight vsby reductions due to haze/near-surface smoke from upstream wildfires across eastern Canada, which could result in borderline MVFR Vsbys. Also, there is an outside chance for some localized fog at KGFL which could result in periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys late tonight through daybreak. On Tuesday, an approaching upper level disturbance and cold front will lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the TAF sites, especially after 14Z/Tue. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys could occur. Outside of these showers/isolated thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be north to northwest at 8-12 KT with a few gusts of 20-25 KT possible this afternoon. Winds will become light/variable tonight through daybreak, then become north to northwest at 5-10 KT by mid morning Tuesday into the early afternoon. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...Evbuoma AVIATION...KL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.