Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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480 FXUS61 KALY 240235 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 935 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to allow for dry and cold weather with variable cloudiness overnight into tomorrow. A storm system will bring rain and a wintry mix to the region for Saturday into Saturday night, with the best chance of snow and ice across the higher elevations. A few lingering rain and snow showers are expected Sunday before dry weather returns for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 935 PM EST...High pressure continues to dominate over the Northeast at the sfc and aloft. In the southwest flow aloft, high clouds continue to filter in, and we kept it mostly cloudy. Light to calm winds with dry low-levels with some breaks in the clouds will allow for some radiational cooling, as temps have fallen into the teens in the Upper Hudson Valley/Lake George and Glens Falls areas. We lowered temps a few degrees in those locations, as well as the southern Adirondacks. The 00Z KALY sounding nicely shows the high clouds, and the dry low- levels with a PWAT of 0.17" Expect lows in the teens and 20s across the region with the colder values mainly north of the I-90 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry weather is expected to continue for Friday into Friday night, as the upper level ridging remains in place, while a closed low only slowly moves across the Midwest. Surface high pressure will remain nearby the region across southeastern Canada, keeping subsidence in place. With relatively warm temps aloft, max temps will be mild for late January, with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Although skies should be partly cloudy for Friday, cloud cover will steadily increase for Friday night as the large upper level low finally starts heading towards the area. Based off the latest model guidance, it should remain dry for nearly all of Friday night. With the increasing clouds, lows will only be in the mid to upper 20s for most spots. On Saturday, the large closed upper level low will be approaching the area from the Ohio Valley. A wave of low pressure located along the storm`s occluded front will be headed northeast from the mid Atlantic towards the Northeast. A strong south-southeast flow will be in place at low to mid levels, with a low-level jet of over 50 kts. A band of steady precip looks to be lifting northeast towards the area for Saturday, with the bulk of the precip expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The precip looks like it could be moderate in intensity for a while due to the strong low-level jet, especially in areas where the flow upslopes the terrain (such as the southeastern Catskills and high terrain of western New England). P-type has been varying between model guidance, especially over the last few runs, but the trend has been warmer. There should be a warm nose between 800-900 mb, with temps as warm as +3 C and the surface layer will be warming due to the low-level southeast flow as well. For most of the region, there may be a brief window of snow/sleet at the onset, but the bulk of the precip through Saturday evening should be rain. Across the Adirondacks, temps should stay cold enough for precip to remain a wintry mix for most of Saturday, with a light accumulation of snow and ice. Temps should mainly be in the 30s for Saturday. In addition, some gusty winds are possible across the Taconics and western New England due to the strong S-SE jet, especially in areas of channeled flow. By Saturday night, the low pressure area will be lifting northeast and our region will start to be influenced by the cyclonic flow around the large upper level low. This will allow for cooling temps aloft, changing precip over to snow across the high terrain with rain showers for valley areas. However, the steadiest precip looks to be exiting and it should start to become more areas of precip. Temps look to remain fairly steady in the 30s. With the upper level low moving from Upstate New York towards northern New England, some additional rain and snow showers are expected on Sunday, especially across the Adirondacks. A light accumulation of snow is possible for the high terrain due to the additional precip from the cyclonic flow and lake enhancement. Valley areas may be warmer enough for rain or a rain/snow mix, but any accumulation looks limited to the higher terrain, with temps still fairly steady in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The extended opens with unsettled weather, but then fair weather returns for the mid week. A cutoff upper low continues to bring mainly snow showers to the forecast area, especially from the Capital Region and the Berkshires north and west. The cyclonic vorticity advection will help focus the pcpn. The upper level low moves downstream on Monday with the snow showers ending. Some light accumulations are possible along the westerly upslope sections of the western Adirondacks, and southern Greens. Lows Sunday night will be in the 20s to around 30F in a few locations. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s in the valleys and upper 20s to mid 30s over the higher terrain. Lows Monday night will be in the teens and 20s. A cold front moves through Tuesday with little low-level moisture to work with except a few snow showers and flurries over the western Adirondacks. Highs will be in the mid 20s to upper 30s. High pressure builds in south of James Bay Tuesday night through Thursday with fair, and seasonably cold weather. A storm system will be sliding east of the region over the Mid Atlantic States with ridging holding over the Northeast according to GEFS/ECMWF/GFS. Temps will be near normal to slightly above normal for late Jan. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will be in control tonight into tomorrow along and near the NY and New England Coast. VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 00Z/SAT for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. Some mid and high clouds will persist tonight, and then decrease between 11Z-14Z/FRI. Cirrus clouds will increase with southwest flow aloft tomorrow afternoon. The winds will be calm tonight, and light and variable direction at 3 to 6 kts Fri afternoon. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...RA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Monday To Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... As high pressure slowly departs, dry weather will continue for tonight through Friday night across the region. This will allow for river and stream levels to remain steady. Over the weekend, a storm system will bring rain and a wintry mix to the region, with the best chance for snow and ice across the higher elevations. Valley areas look to see a period of moderate rainfall Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, which may allow for some ponding of water on roadways and in other low lying areas. Total liquid equivalent will generally be one half inch to one inch and a quarter. This will cause for some rises on rivers and streams (especially across the Catskills and western New England), but no flooding is expected. Dry weather will then return for early next week, allowing for flows to recede. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula HYDROLOGY...Frugis

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