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000
FXUS61 KALY 032330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
730 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal storm will move gradually away from the region, however
clouds are expected linger into Saturday morning. Mild with
some sunshine for Saturday afternoon. Clouds move back in for
Sunday as a cold front approaches and moves through with some
showers possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM EDT, cool and damp conditions prevail, with bands
of rain showers continuing to spiral southwest/west across the
region. Upstream radars across northern New England continue to
show additional bands, so have kept scattered showers in
forecast regionwide through at least midnight, then tapering to
isolated thereafter. In between these bands of showers,
patchy/areas of drizzle will be possible as well.

The coastal storm located off the New England coast will
continue to impact the region. Its extensive cloud shield will
remain over the area through the night. However the chances for
showers will decrease after midnight as the low moves away from
the region and high pressure begins to build in at the surface
and aloft. It will be mild with lows in the mid and upper 30s
with lower 40s up the Hudson River Valley into the Capital
District.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clouds are expected to linger in Saturday morning across the
area with some breaks of sunshine possible for the afternoon as
high pressure continues to build in. With the mild start to the
day and some sunshine highs in the 50s are expected below 1500
feet with mid and upper 40s above that. Winds will be very
light. Dry and tranquil weather continues through Saturday night
with lows in the 30s.

On Sunday, mid and high level clouds will be increase as a cold
front approaches. There is limited moisture associated with the
boundary and forcing will be weak as northern stream short wave
passes well to our north. Can`t rule out some brief showers
during the afternoon into the evening, have mainly slight
chance pops. Overall the front will pass through with little
impact. Mild temperatures mainly in the 50s with 60 degrees in
some areas up the Hudson River Valley into the Capital District.

Decreasing clouds Sunday night with sunshine for Monday as
high pressure builds in at the surface and aloft. Lows mainly
in the 30s with some 20s in the southern Adirondacks and high
terrain of the southern Green Mountains. Highs in the 50s
Monday with lower to mid 60s in the Hudson River Valley up into
the Capital District. Any 40s will be limited to above 2000 feet
in on the southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday night into Tuesday, northwesterly flow around the periphery
of a closed low over the Canadian Maritimes will promote subsidence
and dry conditions. The flow flattens out for the middle to the end
of the week, and one or more disturbances in the flow are forecast
to bring periods of precipitation. There continues to be low
confidence in the timing of these waves due to the lack of
intermodel and run-to-run consistency. Will continue to broad-brush
the Wednesday-Thursday period with chance PoPs. If there is one
consistent feature in the models, it is that the lead wave appears
to be a progressive, low-amplitude disturbance, and the trailing
disturbance is a larger closed low. These disturbances will be
coming in from the northwest, so will be unlikely to result in a
good tropical moisture feed and heavy rain threat. Some showers
could linger into Friday if the low slows down, which often occurs
with cutoffs this time of year.

Temperatures are expected to begin the period several degrees above
normal, then trend near to below normal as the forecasted
disturbances bring in progressively cooler air. Current expectation
is for the majority of the precipitation to be in the form of rain,
although some high-terrain snow is possible, particularly during the
nighttime hours.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR ceilings with scattered showers will continue this evening
with the greatest concentration of showers across
KALB/KPSF/KPOU. Activity will begin to taper off after midnight,
although some patchy drizzle may linger. Ceilings should
gradually improve tonight into tomorrow morning to at least low-
end VFR, but a few MVFR periods may still occur. Mainly VFR
conditions are expected Saturday afternoon, although can not
rule out some patches of MVFR Cigs lingering, esp at KPSF.

Wind will be out of the north to northeast this evening at 8-12
kt across the TAF sites with some higher gusts up to 20-25 KT,
especially at KPOU and KPSF. Wind will then be out of the north
to northeast later tonight through Saturday at 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Coastal storm will move gradually away from the region however
clouds are expected linger into Saturday morning. Mild with
sunshine for Saturday afternoon with minimum relative humidity
levels in the 50s. Clouds move back in for Sunday as a cold
front approaches and moves through with some showers possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
At this time, the Hudson River at Poughkeepsie (POUN6) is
forecast to exceed flood stage during Saturday morning high tide
cycle. Otherwise no flooding issues are anticipated over the
next several day with mainly fair weather through the weekend
and into early next week. The next chance of widespread rain
appears to be Wednesday into Thursday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...KL/Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA