Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 171736 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 136 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region this afternoon with some rain showers. Behind the front, gusty winds and colder temperatures will move into the region. Most areas will see tempertures dropping near or below freezing tonight. Temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Please note that the KENX radar will be down all day due to the replacement of the gear box. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.... As of 1235 PM EDT, band of rain showers continues tracking E/SE across the SW Adirondacks and west/central Mohawk Valley. Peak wind gust of 39 mph noted at NYS Mesonet site at Herkimer. Addressing gusty winds with these showers with SPS`s as needed due to the convective nature. Additional gusts of 40-50 mph are possible within these showers, especially within valley areas which heated up earlier today with sunshine, steepening low level lapse rates. Temperatures will continue spiking ahead of the front, with upper 50s to lower 60s expected in valley areas, and lower/mid 50s across higher terrain areas. Behind the front, temps will fall back into and through the 40s by mid to late afternoon in valley areas, and into the mid/upper 30s across higher terrain. Lake effect/enhanced showers will persist across the far western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Co, eastern Catskills and SW Adirondacks, with a mix or changeover to snow occurring, initially for elevations above 1800 feet, then lowering to above 1200 feet by late afternoon/sunset. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph will likely continue behind the front, strongest within channeled flow within the Mohawk River Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires. Previous discussion follows... As of 1030 AM EDT, rain showers have begun moving into the Dacks as the upper level trough begins to move overhead and as the cold frontal boundary approaches. Current surface observations indicate the cold front is located across western New York along the eastern edge of the lake boundaries. Winds are expected to become gusty this afternoon along and ahead of the front, with gusts up to 33 mph so far in the Mohawk and Schoharie valleys, per NYS mesonet observations. Gusts up to 25 to 40 mph will be possible both pre- and post-frontal passage so cannot rule out a few isolated power outages and tree limbs downed. All that aside, temps currently range from the low 40s to low 50s with ample sunshine present south of the Capital District. However, clouds will be increasing through the remainder of the day so highs will likely top out in the mid 40s in the high terrain to mid 50s in the valleys. Further details regarding the forecast follow... As of 638 AM EDT...Fast moving upper level shortwave trough is located over the Great Lakes and is headed eastward towards our area. At the surface, a sharp cold frontal boundary is located over Michigan and Ontario and will be moving across western New York this morning. The flow in the low to mid levels ahead of this system is out of the southwest, which is picking up some moisture off the eastern Great Lakes. Aided by upslope, some showers have been ongoing this morning across the western and central Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Temps aloft are marginal for wintry precip and boundary layer temps look to be just warm enough for precip to be mainly liquid precip (surface temps according to the NYS Mesonet are in the upper 30s to low 40s). Upstream radar estimates and surface observations show this precip to be very light, so only expecting under a tenth of an inch this morning as showers push eastward across our far northwestern areas. Outside of the Adirondacks, skies are have been fairly clear overnight, but clouds will be increasing quickly this morning as the storm system approaches the area. By around noon, this front will be moving into eastern New York. 3km HRRR suggest a broken band of fast-moving showers will be ahead/along this boundary as it moves across our area for early this afternoon. With a strong wind field aloft (500 hpa u-winds are about 3-4 STD above normal), cannot rule out some gusty winds be transported down to the surface within the locally heavier showers. Some gusts could reach 35-45 mph within and immediately behind these showers, and this may allow for some isolated tree damage/power outages. These winds would be below advisory threshold, but will mention risk for localized issues within the HWO and via social media. Even behind the front, there could be a few additional light rain showers (mainly for upslope and lake-enhanced areas), which p-type perhaps mixing with snow across the highest elevations. Ahead of the boundary, max temps look to reach the mid 40s to mid 50s across the area by early afternoon. The front should be through the area by mid-afternoon and westerly winds behind the front will allow temps to start to fall. We will continue to see some gusts of 25-35 mph behind the front within the cold air advection through the evening hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The core of the upper level trough will be passing over the region tonight, with 850 hpa temps falling to -9 to -12 degrees C, about 2 to 3 STD below normal for mid-October. Even with the gusty winds remaining place, many valley areas within the Hudson Valley will be seeing the first freeze of the season (about a week or so later than the average median date for first Fall freeze). The unique (and fairly unusual) aspect is that this will be an advective freeze and most first freezes are usually due to good radiational cooling. As a result of the wind, actual frost formation could be limited in some areas, but with temps expected to reach the mid 20s to low 30s, have included all of the Hudson Valley and S. Litchfield within a Freeze Warning, which will end the growing season for these areas. The only area that could be marginal is right along the Hudson River near the Poughkeepsie-Highland area, but even there, temps should be rather close to the freezing mark. In addition, a band of lake effect precipitation looks to organize this evening off the eastern Great Lakes. Initially, the flow will be westerly, allowing for a broken band of light rain and snow showers to impact the Mohawk Valley. However, the flow will be shifting northwest as the trough continues to push eastward and the band will be stretching across central NY towards Schoharie County and the eastern Catskills. As the boundary layer cools off, p-type will switch to all snow. Amounts look fairly light (snow accumulation will generally just be a half inch or less and limited mainly to colder non-paved and grassy surfaces). Best accumulation looks to occur before midnight, as the shifting flow will allow for a shorter fetch over Lake Ontario and drier air will continue to work its way into the region. Outside of the lake-effect band, sky cover will be decreasing through the night. Lows across the region will range from the low 20s to the low 30s. Dry weather is expected through all off Thursday into Thursday night. A large area of high pressure will be located over the Midwest on Thursday and will build towards the mid-Atlantic for Thursday night. There still will be enough of a gradient in place to keep some gusty winds around for Thursday, with some northwest winds gusting over 25 mph within daytime mixing. However, winds should finally diminish for Thursday night. With the cool temps aloft, highs on Thursday will only reach the mid 30s to mid 40s across the area (about 15 degrees below normal). Skies will range from partly to mostly sunny, with the most clouds over the high terrain. Lows on Thursday night will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. As the high pressure starts to shift eastward, warm advection on the backside of this system will be in place on Friday morning, bringing milder temps aloft to return to the region. This will allow temps to reach back into the mid 50s for most spots on Friday with a mostly sunny sky. Clouds will start to increase for Friday night, as the next system approaches from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A few light rain showers ahead of this are possible on Fri night, mainly for after midnight. With the increasing clouds and south to southwest breeze ahead of the next storm, temps won`t fall too much for Friday night with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Below normal temperatures will dominate the period as a long wave trough develops over the region. Saturday will be the mildest day of the period however it will be unsettled as a rather strong cold front sweeps across region bringing rain showers to the area. The best chances for showers will be to the northwest of the Capital District and across the higher terrain of southern Vermont. Expecting highs from the mid 40s to upper 50s ahead of the cold front. With the passage of the front strong cold advection will occur with temperatures expected to fall into the upper 20s to upper 30s Saturday night. Chances for showers, rain and snow, will linger Saturday night especially for areas west of the Hudson River Valley. Sunday is expected to be chilly and brisk with highs struggling to rise. Expecting highs only from the mid 30s to upper 40s which is around 15 degrees below normal. Apparent temperatures are expected to be only in the 20s and 30s much of the day. Short waves will maintain the trough over the region through at least early next week which will keep temperatures below normal, clouds dominating and a continued threat for rain and snow showers especially to the northwest of the Capital District. Another low pressure system is expected to approach and move across the region Tuesday bringing chances for rain and snow showers to the area especially across the higher terrain. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers associated with a cold front continue to sweep through the forecast area this afternoon, bringing a period of gusty winds to the TAF sites. The showers may briefly reduce conditions to MVFR but should generally remain VFR through the forecast period. Beyond 00Z/Thur, chances for showers will diminish and cloud cover will decrease. West to southwest winds at 10-20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph will continue ahead of the front, but then shift to the west- northwest and become stronger behind the frontal passage. Sustained winds in the teens and gusts of 25 to 35 knots are expected with the strongest winds at KALB and KPSF. Winds will remain brisk overnight. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Strong cold front will pass through the region with a few scattered light rain showers. RH values will fall to 55 to 75 percent this afternoon. Ahead of the front, south to southwest winds will be 5 to 10 mph, but will switch to the west at 10 to 25 mph this afternoon, with a few higher gusts. RH values will recover overnight to 75 to 95 percent with some frost development. RH values will be as low as 35 to 45 percent on Thursday with northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the rest of the week. A strong cold front will pass through today, but this front will be fairly moisture starved and won`t produce much rain showers. Behind this system, some lake effect rain or snow showers will impact the western Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills, but precip amounts will be very light. Dry weather is then expected for Thursday into Friday. Another cold front may bring a few more rain showers for Friday night into Saturday, but this precipitation will also be fairly scattered and light in intensity. River and stream levels will generally hold steady through this period. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ013. NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065-083-084. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL/JLV SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA/JLV FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.