Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 211725 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 125 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure south of the region will bring sunny and warm weather with above normal temperatures this afternoon. Another cool and pleasant night is expected. A cold front will bring some showers to the region on Monday. Behind the front, temperatures will continue to be a little above normal through much of the rest of the week with mainly dry conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 105 PM EDT...High pressure near the mid Atlantic States will continue to yield warm and pleasant weather for the last weekend of astronomical summer. The satellite picture and observations continue to show wall to wall sunshine. The 1Z2 KALY sounding is very dry with a PWAT of 0.77", and parched low to mid levels. The forecast max T for Albany is 82F, and we should be right near that number with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys, and 70s over the higher terrain. Some minor changes to sky cover, hourly T/TD/RH trends and max T`s were done. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather will continue for tonight into Sunday. Both the upper level ridge axis and surface high pressure areas will be shifting eastward for tonight into Sunday. This will let our region enter a south to southwest flow both at the surface and aloft. While it will continue to be precip-free, there may be a few more clouds around (especially by Sunday). In addition, the south to southwest flow will allow for even warmer temps and higher dewpoints to move into the region. Lows tonight look to be in the 50s with some patchy fog (especially near bodies of water once again). Highs on Sunday will be warmer, with low to mid 80s in valley areas. It will even feel muggy, with dewpoints reaching into the 60s. Frontal boundary will begin approaching from the Great Lakes for Sunday night. It should remain far enough away that no rain occurs Sunday night, but it will be partly to mostly cloudy and muggy, with lows in the 60s and the higher dewpoints in place. On Monday into Monday evening, the frontal boundary will be moving across the area from the west. Some showers are expected to occur just ahead and along the frontal boundary. Instability is fairly limited, so will only keep thunder to just a slight chance for southern areas. Both the GFS/NAM show PWAT values shooting up close to two inches just ahead of the boundary. Despite the moisture and decent forcing in place (strong shortwave and some jet dynamics in place), the very progressive and fast nature of the boundary should prevent any heavy rainfall from occurring. Just a few quick downpours are expected, with a tenth to a third of an inch of rain at any one location expected with the fast moving showers. Temps should reach into the mid 70s to mid 80s once again ahead of the front. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will start to work into the area for Monday night. Can`t rule out a lingering shower due to the upper level trough overhead, but most of the precip should be done, with lows falling into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The period begins with a pesky upper level low centered just north of New York in Quebec. Moist cyclonic flow around this system will bring a chance of showers to the region, mainly north of Albany. The low pulls away Tuesday night setting up a dry period Tuesday night into Wednesday night. A front approaches on Thursday. The GFS and Euro are both muted with precipitation chances for the FROPA. The GEFS plumes at Albany show many members flatlining with zero chance of rain. For now, a stripe of chance rain showers is forecast across the northwestern third of the area, with slight chance pops to the south. Convective parameters associated with the front point to near zero chance of thunderstorms. Thus we carry only chance SHRA. After this front clears, another dry period is on tap through Friday night. Temperatures through the long term will run above normal, although not as warm as this weekend. The trend is for temperatures to start out a degree or two above normal on Tuesday and climb to 5-8 degrees above normal by the end of the work week. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF forecast period as high pressure holds its influence on the region. We can therefore expect generally clear skies throughout the period, with perhaps some passing high level clouds. Under clear skies with light winds, patchy fog will once again form overnight and will mainly impact KGFL/KPSF. IFR/LIFR VISBYs are possible with any fog. Winds will remain light and variable through the overnight period then begin increasing from the southwest between 5 and 10 kts towards 18Z/Sun. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: High Operational Impact. Breezy Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will continue to allow for dry weather through the weekend. Although early morning hours with feature heavy dew and patchy fog with RH near 100 percent, RH values will fall to 40 to 50 percent during the afternoon today and 50 to 60 percent on Sunday. Very light or calm winds are expected both today and tomorrow. Next chance of rain will be ahead of a frontal boundary on Monday with some showers. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are anticipated across the region over the next week. Dry weather will continue for this weekend with above normal temperatures. The next chance of rain will be ahead of a frontal boundary on Monday into Monday evening. Most spots will see between one tenth and one third of an inch of rain, which will have little impact on area rivers and streams. According to USGS streamflow, most area rivers are seeing near normal or below normal flows for mid September thanks to the recent stretch of dry weather. More dry weather is expected behind this front through most of the week. As a result, river and streams will continue to hold fairly steady. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...OKeefe AVIATION...JLV FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis/Wasula

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