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695
FXUS61 KALY 181432
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1032 AM EDT Tue May 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain warm through the rest of the week with
daytime temperatures reaching into the 80s in many areas for
Wednesday through Friday. Although it should be dry over the next
few days, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will return later
in the week, with the highest chance over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Updated at 1030 AM EDT... A patch of mid-level cloud cover is
drifting south-southeast around the edge of a developing upper
level ridge building over the Great Lakes and will continue to
bring some clouds to much of our area into early this afternoon.
These clouds will tend to dissipate this afternoon but some cu
will be developing mainly over higher terrain. Overall it looks
to be a partly sunny day in store with temperatures climbing
well in the 70s.

As of 645 AM EDT...Upper level ridge axis extends northward
across the Southeast towards the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
Our area continues to be dominated by northwesterly flow aloft
as a weak upper level disturbance passes around the corner of
the upper level ridge as it heads across Quebec and towards
northern New England.

IR satellite imagery shows some mid level cloudiness associated
with this disturbance moving across the region, mainly northern
and eastern areas. There hasn`t been any showers, as the weak
forcing, limited moisture aloft and low dewpoints have prevented
any showers from occurring across our area. Will keep POPs low
through the morning hours, but sct to bkn mid level clouds will
continue over the next few hours.

Otherwise, these morning clouds will be breaking for a mostly
sunny afternoon for the entire area as the disturbance moves
away from the area. Behind the departing upper level
disturbance, good daytime mixing is expected and 850 hpa temps
will be around 8 to 10 C. This should allow for highs to reach
well into the 70s for most areas, with a few spots nearing 80 in
the Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley. The decent mixing
will make for a somewhat breezy afternoon, with some afternoon
gusts over 20 mph possible. With the good mixing expected to
occur, have lowered dewpoints below guidance, as recent
dewpoints have been fairly low due to very dry conditions in
place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge axis will be shifting eastward towards the
Northeast for the short-term period. With the building heights
and warming temps aloft, temperatures will be well above normal
over the next few days.

With a mostly clear sky and decreasing winds, temps tonight look
to lower to the mid 40s to low 50s across the area. Probably not
much radiational fog will form tonight due to the short
overnight period and fairly dry air mass in place, as well as
the lack of rainfall that has occurred recently.

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day since late August of last
year. With the ridge axis overhead, a mostly sunny sky and 850
hpa temps reaching 12 to 14 C will allow for highs to reach well
into the 80s for valley areas. Have gone along the higher end of
the blended guidance for max temps, with some mid 80s within the
immediate Hudson Valley. Can`t totally rule out a brief shower
developing late in the day within the highest terrain, but this
is a low probability, as the strong ridging and limited moisture
should help prevent much convection from developing. Despite the
very warm temps, dewpoints should remain mostly in the 40s, so
it may not feel too muggy, although the temperatures are very
warm for mid May. Another quiet night is expected for Wednesday
night with a partly cloudy sky and temps falling into the 50s.

Another warm day is expected on Thursday, with highs reaching
into the 80s for valley areas once again. There may be a few
more clouds for Thursday. Some guidance suggests that some
afternoon showers or t-storms could develop, as an upper level
disturbance rides across the northern periphery of the ridge.
Coverage is still somewhat uncertain, but it will probably be
fairly limited due to the lack of deep moisture available. Have
gone with slight chc POPs, but most areas will probably wind up
remaining dry through the day. Dewpoints may finally reach into
the 50s, so it will start to feel just slightly more muggy
(although not really uncomfortable just yet). It will remain
partly cloudy right into Thursday night with lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quite a difference in model guidance through this period, which
leads to lower than normal forecast confidence.

We will start the period under the influence of an upper-level ridge
across the eastern CONUS, though the strength of the ridge differs
amongst the guidance. The GFS is weaker with the ridge versus the
ECMWF/Canadian and as a result is wetter and also lower with
temperatures. The GFS suggests scattered to widespread precipitation
chances each day through Sunday with high temperatures in the 60s
and 70s. The ECMWF/Canadian suggest isolated, at best, coverage of
precipitation on Friday with a better chance over the weekend (with
the ridge weakening, similar to the GFS) with highs most days in the
70s and 80s. Due to the differences in guidance, the forecast
consisted of generally holding with NBM guidance for now, which
places the forecast in-between model solutions. This will result in
at least slight chance to chance pops for precipitation each day
through Sunday with highs generally between 70-80 degrees and lows
mainly in the 50s. There will be a chance for a thunderstorm each
afternoon during the time of peak heating.

A cold front may progress southward across our region late Sunday as
high pressure builds in from Canada. This could result in a dry day
Monday with slightly lower humidity, but given the chaotic pattern,
this could change as it gets closer. Highs Monday may range from the
upper 60s in the higher terrain to the upper 70s in the valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z/Wed...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF
period. The next 24 hours will feature nothing more than occasional
mid and high clouds. No precipitation nor fog development is
expected.

Winds will be light and variable to start, then increase out of the
west to northwest at 7-14 kt this afternoon with gusts to 20 kt
possible (mainly at KALB/KPSF). Wind will lessen this evening, then
become calm tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper level disturbance is moving through the region this
morning, but limited moisture is preventing anything more than
just isolated early morning showers. Otherwise, morning clouds
will break, allowing for a warm and mostly sunny day. With good
mixing in place, RH values will drop to 25 to 35 percent this
afternoon. Westerly winds will be 5 to 15 mph today and a few
gusts could exceed 20 mph this afternoon.

Although RH values should recover above 75 percent for most
areas tonight, they will lower once again to near 30 percent on
Wednesday afternoon, with another very warm and sunny afternoon.
West to northwest winds will be 5 mph or less for Wednesday.
There may be some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms beginning on Thursday, although the best chance
may not be until the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the rest of the
week.

Dry conditions are expected over the next few days. The threat
for some scattered showers and thunderstorms will return
beginning on Thursday, with the highest chance over the
weekend. With basin average amounts expected to be fairly low
due to the scattered nature of any precipitation, river and
streams levels are expected to remain fairly steady or slowly
fall through the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...MSE/Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis