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000
FXUS61 KALY 270221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1021 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the
area this afternoon and evening, with clearing skies overnight.
Mainly dry and seasonably warm weather is expected Thursday and
Friday. Periods of showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast
Friday night into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Just a few showers left heading into VT. Otherwise, mostly clear
tonight and some patchy fog is possible in some areas around
daybreak. Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s
Previous AFD has a few more details and is below...

A dry night with decreasing clouds is expected with subsidence
in the wake of the departing wave. Some patches of fog in low-
lying areas cannot be ruled out, especially in any areas that
see a downpour with thunderstorms this afternoon. Lows will be
slightly elevated compared with normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday, we will start the day under subsidence from the
departing wave. A slightly drier airmass will be in place as
well with PWATs generally under an inch. A weak wave will be
tracking across northern NY into northern New England late in
the day, but should be far enough removed from the local area to
spare us any noticeable weather. Expect a good deal of sunshine
with high temps a bit above normal. Humidity will not be too
oppressive for this time of year with dewpoints in the upper
50s to low 60s in the afternoon. Tranquil weather again Thursday
night with weak high pressure over the area and lows slightly
warmer than normal.

Tranquil weather continues into at least the first part of
Friday. Deep moisture will increase in the afternoon and evening
as low to mid-level winds strengthen and bring in higher theta-e
values from the west. Chances for rainfall increase late Friday
into Friday night, although there is quite a bit of uncertainty.
Showers and thunderstorms look to develop to our west during the
day where instability is greater, with some of this activity
tracking toward our northern and western zones by Friday
evening. Some of this activity may spread across our forecast
area by Friday night, or convectively generated vorticity
maxima may generate additional convection over the local area,
although possibly in a weakened state due to it encountering a
more stable airmass. The NAM solution of a well- organized MCS
tracking into our forecast area Friday night appears to be an
outlier, and it appears more likely that we will be on the more
stable side of the instability gradient. Still, enough signal to
keep chance PoPs with slight chance thunder in the forecast
Friday night. Much of the forecast area looks to stay dry during
the daytime hours Friday. Seasonably warm weather continues
Friday into Friday night with dewpoints increasing Friday night,
becoming more muggy.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper energy dropping south out of SE Canada will affect our region
Saturday into Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms. Then
just some lingering isolated to scattered activity Sunday as cooler
and drier air moves in. Considerable cooling aloft Sunday will also
support some isolated to scattered showers and a possible rumble of
thunder Sunday. There will be a brief cool down into Monday before
the upper energy builds east and flat upper ridging very slowly
builds east into our region.

There are hints that one piece of more organized upper energy could
track along the leading edge of better warm advection and leading
edge of the flat upper ridging around Tuesday into Wednesday but
there are disagreements in timing, track and strength of low level
forcing. So, after dry weather Sunday night into early Tuesday, more
scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.

Highs Saturday ahead of the cold front in the 80s but cooler in
higher terrain. Highs Sunday in the 70s to around 80 but some 60s in
northern areas. Highs Monday in the 70s to around 80. Highs Tuesday
in the upper 70s to lower 80s but cooler in higher elevations.
Highs Wednesday in the lower to mid 80s but some 70s in higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Included TEMPO for thunderstorms at KPOU and KPSF ending by 02Z
with MVFR conditions during the thunderstorms. Clearing the rest
of the evening with VFR conditions until some patchy fog
develops after about 07Z, especially at KGFL. VFR conditions
expected Thursday morning.

Winds become light and variable overnight tonight but brief
gusts to 25 Kt are possible in thunderstorms through 02Z this
evening. West to northwest winds at around 10 kt are forecast
for Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread across the
forecast area from west to east this afternoon and evening. In
their wake, a period of mainly dry and seasonably warm weather
is expected Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH values will be
generally in the 40 to 50 percent range each day. A moderate
westerly breeze will develop during the day on Thursday,
becoming lighter on Friday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast
Friday night into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. Activity should be progressive and deep moisture is
not impressive, so the potential for flooding is low. Brief
heavy downpours are always possible in thunderstorms.

After a mainly dry period Thursday and Thursday night, periods
of showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday night into the
weekend.

No significant flooding is expected at this time and all rivers
and creeks should stay well within bank full.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Thompson
NEAR TERM...NAS/Thompson
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...Thompson