


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --356 FXUS61 KALY 282344 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 744 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Isolated to widely scattered evening showers and isolated thunderstorm diminish before Midnight. Then, dry overnight with patchy fog tomorrow morning. Dry, mostly sunny and a bit breezy tomorrow before summertime warmth returns for Monday. Rain shower and thunderstorm activity arrive Tuesday morning and afternoon ahead of a cold front.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Key Message: - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening. Primary hazards being lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rain. A weak cold front is finally approaching the western Mohawk Valley resulting in a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. CAMs suggest storms continue to struggle to grow upscale given weak forcing and limited residence timing in the buoyant warm sector but with 1000 - 1500 J/kg of SB CAPE and 30-35kts of effective shear, we will maintain a close eye on the cluster of storms tracking eastward down the Mohawk Valley into the Upper Hudson Valley through early evening. Primary hazards are still lightning, strong winds, and brief heavy downpours. After 11 PM Tonight: Once rain showers and thunderstorms move through, dry conditions are in store with patchy fog for tomorrow morning, mainly south of I-90 where winds will be light. Overnight low temperatures range in the 50s and 60s with lower humidity as dew points drop in the wake our cold front.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: -Summertime heat returns for eastern NY and western New England on Monday with highs in the 80s and low 90s. Discussion: Surface high pressure builds in tomorrow across the Great Lakes bringing dry conditions for eastern New York and western New England. Dry conditions continue through Monday afternoon when a low pressure system begins to move eastward over the Great Lakes region bringing increasing clouds for late Monday afternoon and less than 30% chance of light rain showers Monday night. High temperatures on Sunday range in the 80s across valley locations, while higher terrain locations range in the 70s. Low temperatures Sunday night into Monday range in the 50s and 60s. For Monday, summertime heat returns to eastern New York and western New England with highs in the valleys in the upper 80s to low 90s. Higher terrain locations range in the low to mid 80s. Latest probabilities from the National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.3 data for high temperatures greater than 90 degrees is between 80 and 90 percent across the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Mid to Upper Hudson Valley, Helderbergs, and portions of the Litchfield Hills. One forecast note is that the feels-like temperatures should feel- like the actual temperature outside (hot) for Monday as dew point temperatures are forecasted to be in the 60s and a more humid airmass doesn`t arrive until the overnight hours Monday. Our criteria for Heat Advisories are for feels-like temperatures greater than 95 degrees for more than 2 hours across eastern NY, so we`ll continue to monitor trends if heat headlines are needed. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tuesday is looking to be our next chance (70%) for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms (15-40%) across eastern NY and western New England. Ingredients needed for thunderstorms to develop is favored by latest NBM data and ensemble forecast model guidances particularly for the morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday. While this is still a few days away and depending on the track of a surface low pressure system moving through with an associated cold front, primary concerns are heavy downpours, lightning, and strong winds with thunderstorms that could develop Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, drier conditions return as surface high pressure builds in and continues through Thursday morning. Lots of uncertainty for Thursday afternoon with ensemble forecast models on if an upper level shortwave moves through bringing less than 30 percent chances for rain showers Thursday. As the 4th of July is now included in the forecast period, this far out is still uncertain and depending on how fast the upper level shortwave moves through on Thursday, dry conditions could be in store if strong surface high pressure builds back in. Tuesday morning could feel muggy as a more humid airmass is in place and low temperatures range in the upper 60s and low 70s. The cold front that moves through eastern New York and western New England Tuesday brings relief from the heat with temperatures dropping into the 50s and 60s for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday highs range in the 70s and 80s. Low temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings range in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Through 00z Monday...Predominately VFR conditions. Included a TEMPO group for GFL from 00 - 03 UTC for brief periods of showers and thunderstorms resulting in MVFR vis as a cluster of storms approach ahead of an incoming cold front. POU should also see some brief showers but likely no reductions to flying conditions through 01-02 UTC. Did not include shower or thunderstorms at ALB and PSF as latest high res guidance suggest activity remains to the north and south. By 04 UTC, the cold front will move through the terminals resulting in much drier conditions. Given incoming dry air, limited MVFR vis from fog to POU where winds will be weakest by 08-12 UTC and MVFR cigs at GFL by 09-12 UTC which should experience the longest duration of showers/storms. After 12 UTC, any fog/low stratus should give way to VFR flying conditions. Westerly winds around 5kts tonight become west - northwest by 12-14 UTC with sustained winds reaching 5-12kts and gusts up to 15-20 kt at KALB and KPSF. Weaker winds at KPOU and KGFL with sustained winds around 5kts. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Webb NEAR TERM...Webb SHORT TERM...Webb LONG TERM...Webb AVIATION...Speciale