Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 041710 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1210 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Morning clouds and flurries should break for some afternoon sunshine, but it will be colder today with a gusty northwesterly breeze. It will remain chilly through the weekend, but only a few stray snow showers are expected. Temperatures are expected to finally moderate for next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Line of clearing in the southern Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga Region steadily sinking south behind the cold front. Still some flurries from the eastern Catskills into the Taconics and Berkshires but they are slowly dissipating. Areas still seeing a mostly cloudy sky will see increasing sun through sunset. Temperatures will hold mainly steady through the afternoon with breezy northwest winds continuing. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... With the large upper level low remaining over eastern Canada, our region will remain dominated by a trough through the entire short term period. Cold northwesterly flow will continue to remain in place. Skies should remain partly to mostly clear for tonight. Although the winds will diminish somewhat, it won`t go completely calm and a light breeze will continue. With temps falling into the single digits and teens, it will feel quite wintry with the wind, and some wind chill values will below zero (especially across the terrain). As upper level vorticity swirling within the upper level trough swings southward, there will be a round of snow showers for late tonight into Friday across the Adirondacks. Most of the activity will be located on the upslope favored north-facing slopes of the northern Adirondacks, although a coating to an inch is possible across the western and central Adirondacks. Otherwise, skies should be partly to mostly cloudy with continued cold and breezy conditions in place. Once again, daytime temps will range from the upper teens over the Adirondacks to the lower to middle 30s for the mid Hudson Valley. Another batch of lake-effect snow showers looks to develop behind the departing upper level energy for Friday night. With a north to northwest flow in place, the bulk of this will remain west of the area. Will allow slight to low CHC pops for far western areas for a light accumulation of snow (mainly 1" or less), but most of our area will not being seeing any snowfall, as it will remain just partly cloudy. Temps will be cold yet again, with lows in the single digits and teens. More of the same is expected for Sat into Sat night, with the upper level trough remaining over the area. Any stray lake- effect snow showers should only brush far western areas, with a continued partly cloudy sky and below normal temps. Nearly the entire area will stay below freezing during the day on Saturday with temps as low as single digits and teens on Sat night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term starts off with unseasonably chilly temperatures, as an upper level trough dominates the northeast U.S. with smaller scale disturbances potentially dropping southeast from Canada. However, significant height rises and developing low level southwest flow should allow temps to rebound to above normal levels by next Tuesday-Wednesday. For Sunday, aforementioned upper level trough/cold pool remains anchored across the region. Cold temps aloft may promote some afternoon clouds, especially to higher terrain areas. Isolated/scattered snow showers/flurries may also occur, especially Sunday morning across portions of the eastern Catskills. It will remain brisk Sunday, with high temps ranging from the teens across higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT, to the mid 20s to lower/mid 30s in valley areas. Cold for Sunday night, especially across the southern Adirondacks where skies may become clear and wind diminishes; temps in this area may fall to around or below zero, with single digits and teens elsewhere. Rising mid/upper level heights should promote subsidence and a warming trend for Monday-Tuesday. However, a weakening upper level disturbance amid low/mid level warm advection could allow for a period of clouds Monday night into early Tuesday, especially northern areas, where a few flurries/snow showers can not be ruled out. Otherwise, after a cold start on Monday, expect afternoon temps to recover into the upper 30s to lower/mid 40s in valleys, and upper 20s to mid 30s across higher terrain areas. Monday night lows mostly in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Then milder for Tuesday, with highs reaching the 40s for most elevations below 1500 feet (possibly lower 50s in the mid Hudson Valley), and upper 30s to mid 40s above 1500 feet. By Wednesday, continuation of mid/upper level height rises and strengthening low level south/southwest flow should allow for more significant warming, with high temperatures potentially reaching into the 50s for many elevations below 1500 feet, and 45-50 above. Temps could be even warmer should there be enough sunshine and deeper mixing. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will continue settling south of the TAF sites through mid morning. Gusty northwest winds will develop in the wake of the frontal passage for this afternoon into tonight. An upper level disturbance will also approach from the north late tonight. Although mainly VFR conditions are expected through 12Z/Fri, a few periods of MVFR Cigs will remain possible through around 16Z/Thu at KALB and especially KPSF in the wake of the cold frontal boundary. Otherwise, Cigs of 3500-5000 FT AGL should lift by midday. Some flurries may also occur through 15Z/Thu, mainly at KALB and KPSF, where a brief reduction to MVFR Vsbys is possible (best chances during this time at KPSF). Mid level clouds will increase from north to south after sunset. Winds will trend into the northwest to north and increase to 8-15 KT between 12Z-15Z/Thu, with some gusts up to 20-25 KT possible. Winds will then be mainly northwest to west and increase to 10-20 KT by early this afternoon, with gusts of 25-30 KT possible, especially at KALB and KPSF where a few gusts up to 35 KT could occur this afternoon and evening. These gusty winds should continue into this evening, with gust magnitudes decreasing slightly after midnight to mainly 20-25 KT. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... Cold and mainly dry conditions are expected for today through the weekend. With temperatures below freezing most of the time and a dry airmass in place, little snowmelt is expected through Sunday and river and stream levels should generally hold fairly steady through the weekend. During next week, temperatures will moderate, becoming above normal by later in the week. It should continue to be dry for the early to middle portion of the week. Rivers and streams may show some diurnal fluctuation in flows during next week due to the expected melting of the snowpack. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...MSE HYDROLOGY...Frugis

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