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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 241955
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
355 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers with gusty northwest winds and isolated
rumbles of thunder will diminish this evening and overnight.
High pressure building in from the west will bring dry but cool
weather through the remainder of the workweek. Temperatures
moderate over the weekend with additional chances for
precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A secondary cold front continues to make its way southeastward
across the region, bringing a final batch of scattered showers
to the eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, Taconics, and
western New England. Earlier cloud breaks in these same areas
has allowed for enough destabilization to support an isolated
rumble of thunder south and east of Albany through this
afternoon. Any lingering showers over the high terrain of the
southern Greens may transition to a wet snow as colder air
arrives, although little to no accumulation is expected. As high
pressure quickly builds over the eastern Great Lakes, west to
northwest winds behind the cold frontal passage will be gusty,
possibly reaching 25-30 mph along the Mohawk Valley, across the
eastern Catskills, Capital District, and Berkshires, while 15-25
mph gusts are more likely elsewhere.

Afternoon highs will be relatively mild, reaching the 40s to
low 40s in high terrain and mid 50s to mid 60s at lower
elevations. Temperatures will rapidly cool this evening and
overnight within robust cold advection behind the frontal
passage. High pressure continuing to build to the west will see
the surface pressure gradient slacken locally, allowing winds to
lessen overnight and setting the stage for efficient radiative
cooling. With surface dewpoints in the single digits and teens,
overnight lows will dip well below normal into the upper 10s
and 20s across the region, about 5-10 degrees above record low
values for climate sites along the Hudson.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure will remain overhead Thursday and Friday,
while upper ridging approaches from the west, yielding dry
weather, clear skies, and a slight warming trend through the
period. Following a cold morning on Thursday, temperatures will
rise to highs in the 40s in high terrain and 50s at lower
elevations with light northwest winds, before falling to lows
in the 20s for most and low 30s in the Mid-Hudson Valley on
Thursday night. On Friday, highs reach the 50s to low 60s with
light south to southeast winds, then Friday night lows dip into
the 30s across the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Temperatures will trend above normal during the upcoming long term
period thanks to strong upper level ridging becoming established
across the Northeast and southwesterly winds advecting in a very
warm air mass. In fact, the first 80 degree days for many locations
looks to occur Monday and possibly Tuesday. As is typically this
time of year, after this warm-up, an incoming cold front Tuesday
into Tuesday night may result in some thunderstorms before we trend
back down to more seasonably spring temperatures. Read on for
details.

We begin the long term on Saturday with an amplified ridge axis and
sfc warm front from western NY building eastward. The first half of
Saturday looks dry as we remain mainly east of the ridge axis.
However, POPs trend upwards, especially west of the Hudson, through
the day, as the ridge axis, increased mid-level moisture and surface
warm front spill eastward. Increased southwesterly flow and warm air
advection will allow temperatures to trend upwards compared to
Thursday and Friday but the core of the warm air mass should remain
displaced to our west, keeping highs around normal for late April.

Shower chances increase and become more widespread across the region
Saturday afternoon into the evening as the front tracks towards New
England. With the front mainly in or just east of western New
England during the day on Sunday and a few weak shortwaves spilling
overtop the ridge axis, we continue to message chance POPS north and
west of the Capital District with slight chance POPS into western
New England. Temperatures will trend warmer on Sunday as the front
gradually shifts to our east. Expecting highs to eclipse 70 for many
valley areas with mid to upper 60s in the hill towns and high
terrain.

Expect a little taste of summer Monday and Tuesday as our ridge axis
shifts further east into New England and strong southwesterly flow
ushers in the true warm sector. With 850hPa isotherms rising +2 to
+2.5 standard deviations above normal, confidence is increasing that
many valley areas will record the first 80 degree day of the season
(potentially both days). As ridging becomes re-established overhead,
a few weak shortwaves still tracking within the fast flow aloft may
result in some isolated to scattered showers/storms, especially
during peak heating.

By Tuesday afternoon into especially Tuesday evening, ridging breaks
down and increased height falls combined with an approaching cold
front will increase chances for rain and even thunderstorms thanks
to the very warm air mass and increased moisture ahead of the front.
With strong southwesterly flow aloft, some organized convection is
possible. Will continue to monitor this potential over the coming
days.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front is in the process of moving across the area.
Overall, flying conditions are VFR, with bkn cigs around 4-6
kft. Some additional showers may impact the TAF sites over the
next few hours, but any showers look brief. There could be quick
reduction in visibility within any shower down to MVFR/IFR
levels, but it would be very brief and overall, flying
conditions will generally be VFR. By the early evening hours,
all showers will be done and skies will begin clearing out.
Flying conditions should be VFR for tonight into Thursday, with
mainly clear skies. No radiational fog is expected overnight.

Winds will become west-northwest this afternoon and will
eventually become northerly for tonight into Thursday. Winds
will be around 10 to 15 kts for later this afternoon into this
evening with some higher gusts, but they will start to come down
for tonight around 5 to 10 kts. Winds will be lighter on
Thursday, generally around 5 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Frugis