Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 252326 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 726 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring mostly clear and dry weather through tonight. Clouds will increase on Tuesday but most of the day will be dry. A cold front approaching from the west will bring rain showers to the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 725 PM EST, clear skies regionwide, with dry air and light winds in place. This sets up favorable conditions for radiational cooling and rapid temperature drops after sunset, especially where snowpack remains and winds trend to calm. Have lowered forecast mins slightly across portions of the southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley, where these conditions are more likely to occur the longest. Otherwise, no other changes other than minor adjustments to current temps/dewpoints/winds. [PREVIOUS 339 PM EDT]...Surface high pressure will slowly begin to retreat farther to the north and east tonight. An upper-level low will continue to spin across the western Atlantic; however, low-level moisture from this system could lead to an expansion of low-level clouds toward daybreak, especially for areas south and east of Albany. Elsewhere, a mainly clear night is expected. Where snowpack remains and there are little if any clouds and light winds, temperatures could fall quickly tonight. Some of these areas could fall into the teens. Elsewhere, lows will be mainly in the 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low-level moisture continues to increase on Tuesday from southeast to northwest associated with the low pressure system over the Atlantic. In addition, a frontal system will continue to slowly approach from the west. Overall, Tuesday is looking dry for most areas as we will remain in-between these two features. Highs look to reach the 40s to lower 50s, but portions of eastern New England may be stuck in the upper 30s. Some CAMs suggest that low- level cold air could become trapped underneath a warm nose aloft across areas mainly east of the Hudson River on Tuesday and the lowest levels of the atmosphere will be rather saturated. This could hold temperatures down more on than currently forecast. In addition, this could result in some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle (depending on air temperatures) which could also continue through Tuesday night. The frontal system approaches from the west Tuesday night through Wednesday. The primary low and upper-level forcing with this system will remain well to the north and west of the area. This will cause the approaching cold front to weaken and slow upon its approach and may even stall over the region. As a result, only looking at scattered rain showers across the region with overall low QPF amounts. Temperatures should rebound into the mid-40s to mid-50s on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper level trough over the upper Midwest on Wednesday night will slowly shift towards the Northeast for Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure will be developing along a stalled frontal boundary along the eastern seaboard on Thursday and lifting northeast just offshore for Thursday night into Friday. As a result, there could be some additional showers that spread across the area on Wed night, with some steady rainfall possible for eastern and southeastern areas for Thursday into Friday. Although the heaviest rainfall looks to stay southeast of the area closer to the coast, there could be some rainfall amounts that exceed one inch for southeastern areas. Depending on how quickly some cold air moves in aloft from the west, there could be a changeover to wet snow before ending, especially for the high terrain for western New England. Daytime temps look seasonable (upper 40s to low 50s in valley areas) 30s at night (some upper 20s for the high terrain). Behind this system, mainly dry weather is expected over the weekend, with just a spotty rain shower possible. Skies will be partly cloudy with temps still close to normal. Another system could spread some more rain towards the area for early next week from the west. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to bring dry conditions through Tuesday morning. VFR conditions will occur into tonight, with low stratus clouds at MVFR levels expected to increase from south to north late tonight into Tuesday morning from around 08Z-11Z/Tue at KPOU to 15Z-18Z/Tue at KGFL. There could be some spotty light showers or patchy drizzle developing after 20Z/Tue, with best chances at KPOU and KPSF. There could be lower MVFR to borderline IFR Cigs and MVFR Vsbys developing within any patches of drizzle. Winds will become mainly variable less than 5 kt overnight into Tuesday morning, trending into the east to northeast at 5-10 KT Tuesday afternoon. Low level wind shear is possible at KPSF overnight, as winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the east at 30-40 KT, while surface winds generally remain under 6 KT. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...KL/Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...KL/JPV

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