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356
FXUS61 KALY 282344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
744 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Isolated to widely scattered evening showers and isolated
thunderstorm diminish before Midnight. Then, dry overnight with
patchy fog tomorrow morning. Dry, mostly sunny and a bit breezy
tomorrow before summertime warmth returns for Monday. Rain
shower and thunderstorm activity arrive Tuesday morning and
afternoon ahead of a cold front.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Key Message:

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms late this
  afternoon into this evening. Primary hazards being lightning,
  gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

A weak cold front is finally approaching the western Mohawk
Valley resulting in a broken line of showers and thunderstorms.
CAMs suggest storms continue to struggle to grow upscale given
weak forcing and limited residence timing in the buoyant warm
sector but with 1000 - 1500 J/kg of SB CAPE and 30-35kts of
effective shear, we will maintain a close eye on the cluster of
storms tracking eastward down the Mohawk Valley into the Upper
Hudson Valley through early evening. Primary hazards are still
lightning, strong winds, and brief heavy downpours.

After 11 PM Tonight: Once rain showers and thunderstorms move
through, dry conditions are in store with patchy fog for tomorrow
morning, mainly south of I-90 where winds will be light.
Overnight low temperatures range in the 50s and 60s with lower
humidity as dew points drop in the wake our cold front.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

 -Summertime heat returns for eastern NY and western New
  England on Monday with highs in the 80s and low 90s.

Discussion:
Surface high pressure builds in tomorrow across the Great Lakes
bringing dry conditions for eastern New York and western New
England. Dry conditions continue through Monday afternoon when a low
pressure system begins to move eastward over the Great Lakes region
bringing increasing clouds for late Monday afternoon and less than
30% chance of light rain showers Monday night.

High temperatures on Sunday range in the 80s across valley
locations, while higher terrain locations range in the 70s. Low
temperatures Sunday night into Monday range in the 50s and 60s. For
Monday, summertime heat returns to eastern New York and western New
England with highs in the valleys in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Higher terrain locations range in the low to mid 80s. Latest
probabilities from the National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.3 data for
high temperatures greater than 90 degrees is between 80 and 90
percent across the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Mid to Upper
Hudson Valley, Helderbergs, and portions of the Litchfield Hills.
One forecast note is that the feels-like temperatures should feel-
like the actual temperature outside (hot) for Monday as dew point
temperatures are forecasted to be in the 60s and a more humid
airmass doesn`t arrive until the overnight hours Monday. Our
criteria for Heat Advisories are for feels-like temperatures greater
than 95 degrees for more than 2 hours across eastern NY, so we`ll
continue to monitor trends if heat headlines are needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday is looking to be our next chance (70%) for scattered rain
showers and thunderstorms (15-40%) across eastern NY and western New
England. Ingredients needed for thunderstorms to develop is favored
by latest NBM data and ensemble forecast model guidances
particularly for the morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday. While
this is still a few days away and depending on the track of a
surface low pressure system moving through with an associated cold
front, primary concerns are heavy downpours, lightning, and strong
winds with thunderstorms that could develop Tuesday. By Tuesday
evening, drier conditions return as surface high pressure builds in
and continues through Thursday morning. Lots of uncertainty for
Thursday afternoon with ensemble forecast models on if an upper
level shortwave moves through bringing less than 30 percent
chances for rain showers Thursday. As the 4th of July is now
included in the forecast period, this far out is still uncertain
and depending on how fast the upper level shortwave moves
through on Thursday, dry conditions could be in store if strong
surface high pressure builds back in.

Tuesday morning could feel muggy as a more humid airmass is in place
and low temperatures range in the upper 60s and low 70s. The
cold front that moves through eastern New York and western New
England Tuesday brings relief from the heat with temperatures
dropping into the 50s and 60s for Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday highs range in the 70s
and 80s. Low temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings range in
the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 00z Monday...Predominately VFR conditions. Included a
TEMPO group for GFL from 00 - 03 UTC for brief periods of showers
and thunderstorms resulting in MVFR vis as a cluster of storms
approach ahead of an incoming cold front. POU should also see
some brief showers but likely no reductions to flying
conditions through 01-02 UTC. Did not include shower or
thunderstorms at ALB and PSF as latest high res guidance suggest
activity remains to the north and south. By 04 UTC, the cold
front will move through the terminals resulting in much drier
conditions. Given incoming dry air, limited MVFR vis from fog to
POU where winds will be weakest by 08-12 UTC and MVFR cigs at
GFL by 09-12 UTC which should experience the longest duration
of showers/storms.

After 12 UTC, any fog/low stratus should give way to VFR flying
conditions. Westerly winds around 5kts tonight become west -
northwest by 12-14 UTC with sustained winds reaching 5-12kts and
gusts up to 15-20 kt at KALB and KPSF. Weaker winds at KPOU and
KGFL with sustained winds around 5kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
NEAR TERM...Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Speciale