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034
FXUS61 KALY 120600
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An upper-level low will bring continued cool and cloudy weather
for Mother`s Day. Rain showers will continue this morning
before tapering through the afternoon and evening. Warmer
temperatures near seasonal norms are expected beginning Monday,
while an unsettled pattern will bring additional chances for
rain showers through midweek.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A large upper-level low apparent on moisture channel imagery
continues to track from the Great Lakes into the Northeast early
this morning. The shortwave responsible for the digging trough
will round its base through this morning, contributing to a new
area of deepening over the Gulf of Maine while the upper low
overhead weakens. Resultant scattered rain showers will continue
across the region through the morning before diminishing
locally through the afternoon and evening as the forcing exits
eastward. Largely overcast skies similarly persist into the
afternoon, with some clearing to partly cloudy skies expected
through the evening and overnight.

Dry conditions return by this evening as upper heights rise
rapidly behind the departing trough as brief upper ridging
builds in. Seasonably cool temperatures some 5 to 10 degrees
below normal nonetheless continue through tonight, with
afternoon highs reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s in high
terrain and upper 50s to low 60s at lower elevations, and
overnight lows falling to the upper 30s to mid 40s across the
region.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Generally flat, zonal flow will be in place on Monday with an
upper-level trough approaching from the west Monday night. The
day will start out dry but chances for showers will increase
throughout the day and night as a warm front approaches from the
south and west. The best shower chances during the day Monday
will be for areas north and west of Albany and for areas along
and north of I-90 Monday night as the warm front lifts to the
north. Some weak instability may be present and allow for a few
rumbles of thunder. Highs will top out mainly in the 60s with
some pockets of upper 50s across the higher elevations.
Southerly winds will pick up during the afternoon with a few
gusts over 20 mph. The clouds and warm air advection will cause
temperatures Monday night to only fall into the upper 40s to
mid-50s..
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal boundary will be moving from the west towards the area
for Tuesday into Tuesday night. With plenty of moisture
streaming northward ahead of the boundary, showers and
thunderstorms look fairly widespread, especially Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Temps should be fairly mild ahead of the
front with 60s and 70s.

Although the front should pass through the area on Tuesday
night, it looks to stall just east of the area. A wave of low
pressure will be developing offshore the mid Atlantic States and
will be lifting northeast for the midweek. The models still
show some differences if this feature will close off or not, but
a period of additional rainfall looks possible for Wednesday if
this system remains close to the area. With the clouds and
possible precip, will keep temps in the 60s for Wednesday.

Behind these departing systems, some dry weather looks to move
back into the region, although it will depend on how quickly
thing do wind up departing away from the area. For now, will
keep POPs generally in the slight chc range for Thursday and
Friday with temps near seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions continue tonight but regional radar mosaic shows rain
showers gradually increasing in coverage. Brief MVFR ceilings and
even visibility are possible during any showers but given
disorganized nature of showers, utilized a TEMPO group to highlight
potential for MVFR conditions during showers. Should MVFR ceilings
develop tonight, they may become persist and last through much of
the morning. Greater confidence for persistent MVFR ceilings at PSF
and POU so included prevailing MVFR conditons at these sites but
will also closely monitor GFL and ALB.

Scattered rain showers will continue through Sunday morning and
where rain showers occur, MVFR ceilings are likely. Again, higher
confidence at POU given closer proximity to more widespread showers
in NJ and the NYC area. Any MVFR ceilings should improve after 18
UTC but with an upper level disturbance and associated upper level
cold pool moving overhead, additional showers will likely redevelop
but again, coverage should be scattered. Breaks of sun combined with
the steeper lapse rates may help contribute to increased instability
and possible isolated thunderstorms but not enough confidence to
include in the latest TAF update.

By 00 UTC/13, showers should diminish as the upper level disturbance
exits to our east. VFR conditions likely return to the rest of the
TAF period for all sites.

South to southeasterly winds tonight sustained around 5kts will
remain near or even under 5kts through the rest of the TAF period.
Southeasterly wind should shift slowly veer to the south and even
southwest after 00 UTC/13.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Speciale