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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 052142
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
442 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid-level low pressure over eastern Canada will circulate cold
air across our area through the weekend. A weak trough will
trigger a few snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario tonight
into Saturday, otherwise mainly dry weather is expected. Warmer
weather will arrive next week. |

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
An unseasonably cold and blustery day is in progress with
temperatures this afternoon ranging from the teens across the
north country and highest elevations to the lower 30s in the mid
Hudson Valley. Deep mixing is allowing northwesterly wind gusts
to reach 30 to 35 mph in many areas, especially where those
winds are channeled by terrain such as the Mohawk Valley into
the Capital District. A little enhanced cu is developing over
the east end of Lake Ontario as of late this morning, and this
increasing cloudiness trend will continue over our western and
northern counties this afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
southward toward the area from Quebec. Expect some light snow
showers to develop over the southern Adirondacks and western
Mohawk Valley by evening in response to this wave, otherwise
the rest of the area will remain sunny to partly cloud but dry
through the afternoon.

Scattered snow showers along and behind the surface trough
mainly west of the Hudson Valley will continue through this
evening with some places accumulating up to an inch of snow. A
few flurries may reach the Hudson Valley this evening, but most
areas in the valley will remain dry. The boundary layer will
gradually become less mixed overnight and winds will diminish
slowly, but some gusts of 20 to 25 mph will still persist
through the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The coldest air with this arctic outbreak will be over the area
on Saturday with 850 mb temperatures down around -18 to -20 C
over central and east central NY. The flow will be northwesterly
which will keep most of the lake effect snow showers west of
our area over central NY, but a few flurries or light snow
showers could still get into the western Adirondacks, central
Mohawk Valley and northwest Catskills through the day. The
boundary layer will be mixed to 4000 to 5000 feet AGL allowing
for gusts as high as 20 to 30 mph which would be slightly less
that what was experienced today. High temperatures Saturday will
range from near 20 over the north country and high elevations,
to the lower 30s in the mid- Hudson Valley.

Arctic surface high pressure will build across the eastern Great
Lakes toward southern Ontario and Quebec Saturday night and
Sunday, bringing dry, but continued unseasonably cold weather.
Any lingering light lake effect snow showers will be south of
Lake Ontario well to the west of our area. Temperatures Saturday night
will be in the single digits and teens. Sunday will be slightly
warmer and less windy with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s and
wind gusts down to around 10 to 20 mph.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Expecting a warm up for the beginning of the week as we should be
under the influence of an upper-level ridge. Spring-like
temperatures are expected Wednesday and possibly Thursday ahead of a
cold frontal boundary expected to approach from the region near the
end of the period. Details below...

The upper-level trough to over Southeastern Canada departs to our
east to begin the period Monday and is replaced by rising heights
and warming aloft. This should allow temperatures Monday to rebound
into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region. A shortwave passes to
our north Monday into early Tuesday morning which may increase cloud
cover. The best forcing should be displaced to our north, so not
expecting much in the way of precipitation other than a stray snow
shower in the southern Adirondacks.

Ridging aloft and surface high pressure build in once again for
Tuesday and Wednesday, which should result in tranquil weather and
warmer temperatures. Expecting highs Tuesday to range from the 30s
in the high terrain of the southern Adirondacks to mid 50s in the
Hudson Valley. By Wednesday, we are under the upper-level ridge and
the surface high slides off the East Coast. Resulting southwesterly
flow and warm air advection into the region should help temperatures
climb into the 50s with a few valley locations potentially reaching
60 degrees Wednesday.

A frontal boundary to our west approaches Wednesday night, but this
boundary has trended slower with recent model runs. Therefore
expecting mainly dry conditions across the region through
Wednesday night. Boundary is still expected to remain to our
west Thursday morning, but due to uncertainty in timing have
introduced chance PoPs for our western areas. With warm
temperatures expected at the surface and aloft, expecting any
precipitation to be in the form of rain. High temperatures
Thursday will depend on the progression of the front, but
temperatures a few degrees warmer than Wednesday are expected in
association with continued southwesterly flow and warm air
advection across the region. Mid Hudson Valley locations could
potentially climb into the low 60s with 50s elsewhere.

There is uncertainty in how quickly this front moves through the
region Thursday night and Friday, so have decided to go with a model
blend and keep chance PoPs through the day Friday. Precipitation is
once again expected to be mainly in the form of rain, except for the
higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks where a few
snowflakes may mix in. Regardless, expecting precipitation to
remain light at this time. Temperatures are once again expected
to be mainly in the 40s and even upper 50s across the region
Friday, but will depend on the progression of the front as well.
Details regarding this system will be ironed out over the next
several days as we get closer to the event and forecast
confidence increases.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 18z/Sat...VFR conditions are expected to continue through
much if not all of the TAF period. High cirrus will continue across
the terminals this afternoon. Tonight through tomorrow morning, a
shortwave trough will pass through the region and bring a lowering
and thickening of clouds. Expect mainly SCT-BKN stratocumulus with
bases above 3000 feet at KALB/KPOU/KGFL and around or just above
3000 feet at KPSF (where brief MVFR periods are possible). An
isolated flurry cannot be ruled out, but it should be insignificant
should it occur, so will not include in the TAF.

Wind will remain blustery this afternoon out of the west-northwest
at 10 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Wind will gradually
lessen tonight to 6 to 12 kt with fewer if any gusts. Wind will
increase again tomorrow morning at 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around
25 kt possible (mainly at KALB/KPSF), still out of the west-
northwest.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Cold and mainly dry conditions are expected through the
weekend. With temperatures below freezing most of the time and a
dry airmass in place, little snowmelt is expected through
Sunday and river and stream levels should generally hold fairly
steady through the weekend, with ice remaining in place.

During next week, temperatures will moderate, becoming above
normal by the middle and end of the week. It should continue to
be dry for the early to middle portion of the week. Rivers and
streams may show some diurnal fluctuation in flows during next
week due to the expected melting of the snowpack. There also
could be some rain showers later next week, although expected
rainfall amounts remain very uncertain at this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...KL/NAS