Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 052142 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 442 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Mid-level low pressure over eastern Canada will circulate cold air across our area through the weekend. A weak trough will trigger a few snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario tonight into Saturday, otherwise mainly dry weather is expected. Warmer weather will arrive next week. | && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... An unseasonably cold and blustery day is in progress with temperatures this afternoon ranging from the teens across the north country and highest elevations to the lower 30s in the mid Hudson Valley. Deep mixing is allowing northwesterly wind gusts to reach 30 to 35 mph in many areas, especially where those winds are channeled by terrain such as the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District. A little enhanced cu is developing over the east end of Lake Ontario as of late this morning, and this increasing cloudiness trend will continue over our western and northern counties this afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates southward toward the area from Quebec. Expect some light snow showers to develop over the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley by evening in response to this wave, otherwise the rest of the area will remain sunny to partly cloud but dry through the afternoon. Scattered snow showers along and behind the surface trough mainly west of the Hudson Valley will continue through this evening with some places accumulating up to an inch of snow. A few flurries may reach the Hudson Valley this evening, but most areas in the valley will remain dry. The boundary layer will gradually become less mixed overnight and winds will diminish slowly, but some gusts of 20 to 25 mph will still persist through the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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The coldest air with this arctic outbreak will be over the area on Saturday with 850 mb temperatures down around -18 to -20 C over central and east central NY. The flow will be northwesterly which will keep most of the lake effect snow showers west of our area over central NY, but a few flurries or light snow showers could still get into the western Adirondacks, central Mohawk Valley and northwest Catskills through the day. The boundary layer will be mixed to 4000 to 5000 feet AGL allowing for gusts as high as 20 to 30 mph which would be slightly less that what was experienced today. High temperatures Saturday will range from near 20 over the north country and high elevations, to the lower 30s in the mid- Hudson Valley. Arctic surface high pressure will build across the eastern Great Lakes toward southern Ontario and Quebec Saturday night and Sunday, bringing dry, but continued unseasonably cold weather. Any lingering light lake effect snow showers will be south of Lake Ontario well to the west of our area. Temperatures Saturday night will be in the single digits and teens. Sunday will be slightly warmer and less windy with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s and wind gusts down to around 10 to 20 mph.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Expecting a warm up for the beginning of the week as we should be under the influence of an upper-level ridge. Spring-like temperatures are expected Wednesday and possibly Thursday ahead of a cold frontal boundary expected to approach from the region near the end of the period. Details below... The upper-level trough to over Southeastern Canada departs to our east to begin the period Monday and is replaced by rising heights and warming aloft. This should allow temperatures Monday to rebound into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region. A shortwave passes to our north Monday into early Tuesday morning which may increase cloud cover. The best forcing should be displaced to our north, so not expecting much in the way of precipitation other than a stray snow shower in the southern Adirondacks. Ridging aloft and surface high pressure build in once again for Tuesday and Wednesday, which should result in tranquil weather and warmer temperatures. Expecting highs Tuesday to range from the 30s in the high terrain of the southern Adirondacks to mid 50s in the Hudson Valley. By Wednesday, we are under the upper-level ridge and the surface high slides off the East Coast. Resulting southwesterly flow and warm air advection into the region should help temperatures climb into the 50s with a few valley locations potentially reaching 60 degrees Wednesday. A frontal boundary to our west approaches Wednesday night, but this boundary has trended slower with recent model runs. Therefore expecting mainly dry conditions across the region through Wednesday night. Boundary is still expected to remain to our west Thursday morning, but due to uncertainty in timing have introduced chance PoPs for our western areas. With warm temperatures expected at the surface and aloft, expecting any precipitation to be in the form of rain. High temperatures Thursday will depend on the progression of the front, but temperatures a few degrees warmer than Wednesday are expected in association with continued southwesterly flow and warm air advection across the region. Mid Hudson Valley locations could potentially climb into the low 60s with 50s elsewhere. There is uncertainty in how quickly this front moves through the region Thursday night and Friday, so have decided to go with a model blend and keep chance PoPs through the day Friday. Precipitation is once again expected to be mainly in the form of rain, except for the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks where a few snowflakes may mix in. Regardless, expecting precipitation to remain light at this time. Temperatures are once again expected to be mainly in the 40s and even upper 50s across the region Friday, but will depend on the progression of the front as well. Details regarding this system will be ironed out over the next several days as we get closer to the event and forecast confidence increases.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 18z/Sat...VFR conditions are expected to continue through much if not all of the TAF period. High cirrus will continue across the terminals this afternoon. Tonight through tomorrow morning, a shortwave trough will pass through the region and bring a lowering and thickening of clouds. Expect mainly SCT-BKN stratocumulus with bases above 3000 feet at KALB/KPOU/KGFL and around or just above 3000 feet at KPSF (where brief MVFR periods are possible). An isolated flurry cannot be ruled out, but it should be insignificant should it occur, so will not include in the TAF. Wind will remain blustery this afternoon out of the west-northwest at 10 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Wind will gradually lessen tonight to 6 to 12 kt with fewer if any gusts. Wind will increase again tomorrow morning at 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt possible (mainly at KALB/KPSF), still out of the west- northwest. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Cold and mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend. With temperatures below freezing most of the time and a dry airmass in place, little snowmelt is expected through Sunday and river and stream levels should generally hold fairly steady through the weekend, with ice remaining in place. During next week, temperatures will moderate, becoming above normal by the middle and end of the week. It should continue to be dry for the early to middle portion of the week. Rivers and streams may show some diurnal fluctuation in flows during next week due to the expected melting of the snowpack. There also could be some rain showers later next week, although expected rainfall amounts remain very uncertain at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MSE NEAR TERM...MSE SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...Rathbun HYDROLOGY...KL/NAS

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