Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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891 FXUS61 KALY 080523 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 123 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish across the region tonight and redevelop tomorrow afternoon resulting from a slow-moving cold frontal boundary and remnant moisture from Tropical Depression Chantal. Humid conditions also continue into tomorrow, though oppressive heat, after today, is not likely for the foreseeable future. A brief break in precipitation for most Wednesday will be followed with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the remainder of the week as an unsettled pattern ensues. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message: - Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for areas south and east of the Capital District tomorrow with the primary threat being strong to locally damaging wind gusts. - All showers and thunderstorms tomorrow will have the capability of producing locally heavy downpours which could lead to localized ponding of water in poor drainage areas. Discussion: Severe weather threat has diminished this evening as the line of showers and thunderstorms west of the Hudson Valley has become outflow dominant with much of this precipitation quickly dissipating. Additional showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the mid- Hudson Valley with locally heavy rainfall possible in these areas over the next few hours. The heat advisory was allowed to expire as temperatures begin to fall this evening. The aforementioned cold frontal boundary will slowly traverse the region through tonight, becoming positioned just to our south by tomorrow morning. With multiple low pressure perturbations developing along this boundary, becoming stationary to our south tomorrow, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow especially in the afternoon. However, latest CAMs have begun to show the boundary pushing farther to our south, therefore keeping most of the convection also to our south. There are also timing discrepancies in the latest CAMs with some showing convection developing in the late afternoon and others not until early to the middle of the evening. With extensive cloud cover around, it could be hard for strong thunderstorms to develop, but with similar indices around in comparison to today, the SPC maintained a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow for areas south and east of the Capital District. Strong to locally damaging winds will be the primary threat once again, though with even more moisture around than today courtesy of the remnants of Chantal within closer reach, the threat for locally heavy downpours and subsequent urban and poor drainage flooding is arguably a greater threat than gusty winds. Showers may linger into early Wednesday morning with the stalled boundary remaining relatively stagnant, though its slight shift southward, paired with geopotential heights aloft rising into a brief zonal flow pattern will quickly put an end to any persistent precipitation. Dry conditions, once reinforced, will then remain in place throughout the day Wednesday before another upper-level shortwave threatens additional showers for Thursday. High temperatures throughout the short term will gradually lower, becoming much less comfortable as moisture gradually dwindles as well. Tuesday will be the warmest and muggiest day of the period with highs in the mid 70s to upper 80s and heat indices gracing the 90s in the Mid-Hudson Valley and southwest New England. Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler in terms of air temperature with much less humidity before Thursday "cools" to the mid 70s to low and possibly mid 80s. Lows over the period will also gradually decrease from the 60s to low 70s tonight to the upper 50s to upper 60s by Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper level troughing extending south into the Northeast from a closed low overhead will force the continuation of widespread, light showers throughout the overnight Thursday. The development of another surface low in the Mid-Atlantic region along the lingering stationary boundary from earlier in the week will allow showers to linger into the day Friday, especially along and east of the Hudson River Valley as the upper trough begins to depart to the east and the surface low to the south tracks along the Long Island Coast into the western Atlantic. Shortwave ridging then begins to build in across the region Friday evening through Saturday atop high pressure at the surface, reinforcing dry conditions across eastern New York and western New England. But tranquility will not be long lasting as yet another frontal system and upper level disturbance threaten to bring back showers and thunderstorms for Sunday. The extended period, though containing its fair share of less than ideal weather conditions, does look to pass by without the threat of additional periods of oppressive heat. Highs will generally span the 70s and 80s with lows in the upper 50s and 60s. And while the expected wet weather will maintain a moist airmass, dewpoints do not look to reach the anomalous levels they have recently. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 06z/Wed...VFR conditions ongoing at all the terminals as our cold front continues to slowly track south and east through eastern NY tonight. Given very humid conditions and partial clearing at times tonight, some patchy MVFR cigs are possible at all terminals between 07 and 10 UTC but given low confidence, we removed MVFR mention from the TAFs with this update. Our cold front continues to slowly drift south and east this morning, shifting south of ALB and PSF by 17 - 19 UTC with POU likely remaining mainly south of the front most of the day. With such a humid air mass continuing over POU and with additional disturbances tracking overhead, renewed thunderstorms and shower activity is likely this afternoon into this evening. Scattered thunderstorms looks to initiate around POU by 17- 18 UTC with MVFR flying conditions likely during any storm. Brief IFR vis cannot be ruled out during any heavy downpours but not enough confidence to include IFR at this time. Scattered storms continue through early evening before storms diminish by 03 UTC. Light southerly winds tonight before the front pushes through GFL shortly before 12 UTC resulting in a northeasterly wind shift with winds becoming sustained 5-10kts. Winds shift to the west/northwest at ALB and PSF by 17-18 UTC as the front arrives with sustained winds 5-9kts and gusts up to 15kts. POU remains ahead of the front today maintaining west/southwest winds sustained 5-9kts and gusts up to 15kts. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013. Flood Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for CTZ001-013. NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064>066. Flood Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for NYZ065-066. MA...None. VT...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant/Rathbun NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Gant/Rathbun LONG TERM...Gant AVIATION...Speciale