


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --799 FXUS61 KALY 030634 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 234 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Fair weather this morning will give way to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon ahead of a cold front. A few of the thunderstorms could become strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail. A drier and less humid air mass will build in for Independence Day and the opening of the holiday weekend. It will become hotter and more humid on Sunday with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms early next week ahead of a cold front.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Key Messages: - SPC has included all of eastern NY and western New England in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). - Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will impact eastern NY and western New England today with damaging wind gusts and large hail the primary hazards. As of 234 am EDT... Convection continues to fire across western NY early this morning ahead of a cold front and a short- wave trough. The mid and upper level trough centered just south of James Bay continues to dig equatorward. The faster progression of the front and short-wave may thwart the extent and coverage of potential severe thunderstorms. The forecast area is now in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) based on the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook. Our confidence continues to be the greatest from from the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region/southern VT south and east for the severe threat, but some threat continues northward. Low and mid level heights will be falling ahead of the short-wave and cold front. H500 temps cool to about -12C to -16C based on the NAM/GFS. The left front quad of a cyclonically curved mid/upper level jet streak will provide dynamical support. Mid level lapse rates steepen to 6.5-7.5 C/km by the afternoon especially from the Capital Region/Berkshires north and west. The latest 00Z HREFS indicate mean SBCAPEs of 750-1250 J/kg are over eastern NY and western New England in the very late morning into the mid/late pm. MLCAPES vary from 500-1500 J/kg (highest values close to I-84). 0-6 km mean bulk shear values are about 35-40 KT. The CAMs vary in the coverage and extent of convection. Also the timing looks faster on the 3-km HRRR and NAMnest with areas from ALY south and east having the best coverage. Sfc dewpoints vary with the NAMnest showing sfc dewpoints as high as 70F near KPOU. This looks a little high, as mid 50s to mid/upper 60s look common across the region. Model soundings from the CAMS indicate steep low-level lapse rates with notable DCAPE 600-1000 J/kg over the forecast area. Multi-cells forming into a cluster or two and small lines look possible with damaging winds and marginal severe hail. Can`t rule out an isolated low-topped supercell, but hodographs are straight with weak low-level veering. Some splitting cells and right moves are possible. We included enhanced wording for small hail and gusty winds over the entire area mainly noon to 6 pm. The severe threat looks to diminish by 6-8 pm. Some lingering isolated showers/thunderstorms may linger before the mid level trough passage. Highs today were favored close to NBM numbers with lower to mid 80s in the valleys (a few upper 80s near KPOU) and 70s to around 80F over the hills and mtns.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --Key Message: - High confidence for fair and dry weather for Independence Day with comfortable humidity levels and temps near to slightly below normal. Discussion: Tonight, lingering isold-sct showers and thunderstorms diminish early with the trough passage and cyclonic flow continues with strong cold advection in the wake of the cold front. The skies will become mostly clear due to the strong subsidence due to the frontal passage and the surface anticylone building in from southeast Ontario and the Great Lakes Region. Lows fall back into the 50s with some mid/upper 40s over the southern Adirondacks. Independence Day continues to look splendid and gorgeous with low humidity levels and abundant sunshine with the surface high building in over the region. A northwest breeze will persist at 5-15 mph with some gusts 20-25 mph. Max temps will run near to a little below normal with upper 70s to lower 80s below 1000 ft in elevation and mid 60s to mid 70s above it. The fair and tranquil wx continues 4th of July night for the fireworks and festivities with light to calm winds and cool conditions. Radiational cooling will allow lows to fall back into the 50s with some 40s over the northern mtns. The first half of the holiday weekend continues to look pleasant with a slight uptick in humidity levels, as the sfc high ridges in from the northern mid Atlantic Region and south of New England. Mid and upper level heights rise over NY and New England. Humidity levels look moderate with max temps near to slightly above normal with highs ranging from the mid 70s over the mtns to mid 80s in the lower elevations. Southerly winds will pick up late in the day. Another tranquil night is expected, but a tad more humid with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Key Message: - Oppressive heat returns Sunday into Monday with heat indices potentially reaching the mid and upper 90s in the Hudson River and Mohawk Valleys. Discussion: The air mass becomes hotter and more humid to close the holiday weekend. It should remain dry with just an increase of a few clouds over the mountains north and west of Albany. H850/H500 temps rise +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal under the ridge. The actual H850 temps rise to +17C to +20C. Dewpoints increase into the 60s to around 70F in some of the valley areas. Heat indices reach the mid 90s in portions of the Mohawk and Hudson River Valleys (as far north as Lake George). Some heat flags may be needed. The actual temps will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s in the valleys and upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mtns. Sunday night will be muggy with lows in the 60s to around 70F. A few showers may get close to the southern Adirondacks ahead of a frontal boundary. More heat and humidity opens the week with possible heat advisories for the mid Hudson Valley, Capital District, Saratoga Glens Falls area, Mohawk Valley and possibly the CT River Valley near southern VT with heat indices of 95-100F. A prefrontal sfc trough ahead of the actual cold front will bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms. PWATs will be +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal, so some locally heavy rainfall is possible. The front sluggishly moves south and east across the forecast area Mon night thru Tue based on the NBM, medium range guidance and ensembles with more chances of showers and thunderstorms. It does not look as hot on Tue with temps only slightly above normal. The front settles south the region by Tuesday evening with high pressure trying to build in mid week. There was enough uncertainty with the frontal placement to keep a chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm over the forecast area. Humidity levels should drop from the Capital Region northward mid week with temps over eastern NY and western New England being near normal for July.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --We start the TAF period with VFR conditions under clear skies and calm winds. VFR conditions are forecasted to continue today outside the chances for thunderstorms late this morning and afternoon. Probabilities are still less than 30 percent for impacts to TAF sites so continued to mention in PROB30 groups IFR conditions with any thunderstorm that could pass through TAF sites. One forecast change that latest forecast models are showing is the thunderstorm activity could occur as early as 15z. Adjusted the PROB30 start time by one to two hours early to account for this and continued consistency for end timing of 21-22z for thunderstorms. VFR conditions are in store for after 21z. Westerly winds are still on track for this morning and afternoon becoming light and variable for tonight. Outlook... Friday Night to Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Webb