Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 050846 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 346 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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A storm system will remain anchored over southeast Canada through the weekend, bringing cold and blustery conditions to the region, along with a few snow showers or flurries. The storm will depart early next week as a high pressure ridge builds in from the west, allowing for a significant warming trend to develop by the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 345 AM EST, patchy high/mid level clouds continue across portions of the region, especially the southern Adirondacks and southern VT. Boundary layer remains well mixed, with northwest winds still gusting 20-20 mph in some areas. Temps range from the single digits across portions of the SW Adirondacks, with mainly mid teens to lower 20s elsewhere. Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with clouds a bit more prevalent for areas north of I-90, especially later this afternoon as another weak upper level impulse approaches from the north. Some snow showers/flurries may develop after 4 PM for areas north of I-90. Gusty northwest winds will continue today, with some gusts possibly reaching 35-45 mph within portions of the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires this afternoon as mixing depth increases, and 25-35 mph elsewhere. Max temps generally in the mid teens to mid 20s, although some lower 30s will be possible across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and lower elevations in NW CT, where more sunshine and warming contributions from downsloping off the Catskills are expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Tonight, aforementioned upper level disturbance and weak surface trough will pass southward across the region through midnight, with mostly cloudy skies, and isolated/scattered snow showers, although snow showers will be more numerous across the SW Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County and eastern Catskills, where some added lake moisture contribution will work in tandem with the approaching upper level disturbance. Snowfall accumulations of 1-2 inches will be possible across portions of northern Herkimer County, where snow showers should be most frequent, with perhaps up to an inch across central/southern Herkimer County and western Schoharie County. Also, up to an inch or two could occur across favorable upslope areas of SW VT. Elsewhere, scattered coatings will be possible as snow showers/flurries occur, possibly extending into the Hudson River Valley at times. After midnight, snow showers should decrease in coverage as the disturbance passes, although may linger across Schoharie County and eastern Catskills. Remaining brisk overnight, with lows by daybreak in the single digits and teens. Saturday, another blustery day, with max temps only reaching the teens and 20s for most areas (except lower 30s for the mid Hudson Valley). West/northwest winds may reach 25-35 mph within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires, especially during the afternoon hours. Some breaks of sun will be possible in the morning, before convective temperatures are reached and clouds develop for the afternoon. Some flurries/isolated snow showers will also be possible in the afternoon, especially for higher elevations. Some clearing is possible Saturday night, which could allow for localized decoupling and colder temps dropping into the single digits below and slightly above zero (especially portions of the southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley), with teens elsewhere. For Sunday-Sunday night, one last upper level impulse looks to pass across the region with some patchy high/mid level clouds, otherwise a bit less wind compared to Saturday. Max temps should reach the mid 20s to lower 30s for most valley areas (except possibly mid/upper 30s for the mid Hudson Valley). Mainly clear Sunday night, and where winds trend to near calm, temps may fall to between zero and 10 below across portions of the southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley, with mainly single digits and teens elsewhere.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As the large upper level trough over Atlantic Canada finally pulls away from the region, rising heights and warming temp aloft will occur to start the week on Monday into Tuesday. Although there may be some clouds at times thanks to stubborn low-level moisture trapped beneath an inversion, skies will probably still wind up averaging out to partly cloudy for both Monday and Tuesday. With the upper level ridging in place and surface high pressure located south of the area over the Southeast, no precip is expected. Temps will start out close to normal for Monday with mid 30s to low 40s for valley areas, but will be noticeably milder by Tuesday, with highs reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s across the entire area. Wednesday will be even milder, as the low to mid level flow will be out of the southwest and 850 hpa temps rise to around +5 C. The one question is how many clouds will be around, as some moisture will start approaching ahead of the next frontal boundary. It looks like while there may be some clouds, it should stay precip-free. Temps will reach the mid to upper 50s for much of the area, which should allow for plenty of snowmelt, as dewpoints also rise above freezing. Depending on the exact timing of the next frontal boundary, there could be some rain showers that finally move into the area by Wednesday night or Thursday. P-type will certainly be only plain rain, as mild temps both aloft and at the surface will ensure no frozen/freezing precip, even at the higher elevations. It is still unclear how much precip occurs as it will depend on how fast the boundary moves through the area. Thursday has the potential to be another very mild day depending on how quickly the next front moves into the area, just how much cloud cover is around and how much rain occurs.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Upper level trough located over eastern Canada continues to expand southward across the Northeastern US. Through the remainder of the overnight hours, flying conditions should stay VFR, although periods of bkn-ovc stratocu clouds around 5-7 kft will remain near KGFL/KALB/KPSF for most of the overnight hours. KPOU should be far enough south to just see sct clouds, if at all. Gusty northwest winds will continue; with sustained winds around 10 kts and some gusts of 20-30 kts at times through the rest of the night. Winds may briefly diminish slightly towards daybreak, but will continue to be fairly breezy. During the day on Friday, flying conditions will continue to be VFR. Clouds may decrease during the morning hours, but should increase again by the late day hours around 4-6 kft. Winds will continue to be gusty from the west-northwest, generally sustained at 10 to 18 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts, especially for KALB/KPSF. Winds may start to diminish slightly for Friday night. Flying conditions should remain VFR, with cloud coverage slowly decreasing through Friday night. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Cold and mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend. With temperatures below freezing most of the time and a dry airmass in place, little snowmelt is expected through Sunday and river and stream levels should generally hold fairly steady through the weekend, with ice remaining in place. During next week, temperatures will moderate, becoming above normal by the middle and end of the week. It should continue to be dry for the early to middle portion of the week. Rivers and streams may show some diurnal fluctuation in flows during next week due to the expected melting of the snowpack. There also could be some rain showers later next week, although expected rainfall amounts remain very uncertain at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...IAA/Frugis HYDROLOGY...KL/NAS

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