Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 031513 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1013 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak storm system approaching from the Upper Great Lakes will allow for some light snow showers over the Adirondacks today. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures rising back closer to normal by the afternoon hours. Behind this storm system, colder temperatures will return to the region for Thursday. Chilly and mainly dry conditions are expected for Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE... Mid-morning visible imagery shows much of forecast area partly to mostly sunny. Clouds across the western Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks, Lake George area and windward slopes of southern Vermont. Radar shows no echoes. Shortwave that is now over upper Great Lakes expected to bring increasing clouds later today. 7AM Albany balloon sounding shows a forecast max temp around 41F, which supports current forecast high temps in low to mid 40s in the Hudson Valley so no changes. Winds are northwesterly aloft with 40kt winds below 5000ft on the sounding, so with mixing this afternoon, we should see some gusty northwest winds later. .Previous[0628]... With the nearby disturbance passing by to the north, IR satellite shows plenty of mid level clouds over the northern half of the area, with mainly clear skies to the south. Skies will vary from partly to mostly cloudy through the day today, with northern and high terrain areas having the most cloud cover. Despite a chilly start (temps in the mid teens to mid 20s), temps should rise steadily through the day today. Westerly flow at the surface combined with a more moderate airmass aloft (850 hpa around -5 to -7 C) should allow for temps this afternoon to be closer to normal, with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The next upper level impulse and Arctic cold front will pass through the region for this evening into tonight. There won`t be much moisture with this boundary either, but a few light lake- enhanced or upslope snow showers are possible for the far western Mohawk Valley and western Adirondacks, mainly this evening just behind the frontal passage. A coating to an inch of snow is possible for these areas, with the highest amounts across the mountains. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with a northwesterly breeze for tonight and lows falling into the teens and 20s. With a large upper level low expected to be sitting and spinning across eastern Canada, upper level trough will be have an influence on our weather for the rest of the Short Term period. With the northwest flow in place, a colder air mass will be moving into the area for Thursday into Friday as 850 hpa temps fall down to around -15 C. Skies should mainly be partly cloudy and it looks dry for much of the area. Can`t totally rule out a few lake effect snow showers or flurries for far western areas (especially on Thursday and again on Friday night), but the northwest flow trajectory will keep the bulk of this activity over central NY. Daytime temps look to be in the mid 20s to mid 30s (a few colder readings over the Adirondacks) and lows will be in the single digits and teens. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The long term starts off with unseasonably chilly temperatures, as an upper level trough dominates the northeast U.S. with smaller scale disturbances potentially dropping southeast from Canada. However, significant height rises and low level southwest flow should allow temps to rebound to above normal levels by next Tuesday. For Saturday-Sunday, aforementioned upper level trough/cold pool remains anchored across the region, with a few upper level impulses potentially rotating southeastward. Cold temps aloft and some lift with any passing disturbances should bring some afternoon clouds, especially to higher terrain areas. Some snow showers/flurries may also occur, especially Saturday afternoon for higher elevations west of the Hudson River Valley. Clouds and any flurries may be less prevalent for Sunday afternoon, as height rises and subsidence develop. It will remain blustery and cold Saturday, with high temps ranging from the teens across higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks and southern VT, to the mid 20s to lower/mid 30s in valley areas. Cold for Saturday night, especially across the southern Adirondacks where skies may become clear and wind diminishes; temps in this area may fall to around or below zero, with single digits and teens elsewhere. Very slight moderation for Sunday afternoon, with highs in the 30s for most valley areas, and 20s across higher elevations. Rising mid/upper level heights should promote subsidence and a warming trend for Monday-Tuesday. However, a weakening upper level disturbance amid warm advection could allow for a period of clouds Tuesday, especially northern areas, where a few flurries/sprinkles can not be ruled out. Otherwise, after a cold start on Monday with single digits and teens, expect afternoon temps to recover into the upper 30s to lower/mid 40s in valleys, and upper 20s to mid 30s across higher terrain areas. Monday night lows mostly in the 20s. Then milder for Tuesday, with highs reaching the 40s for most elevations below 1500 feet (possibly lower 50s in the mid Hudson Valley), and upper 30s to mid 40s above 1500 feet. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front will approach from the north this afternoon, and then settle southward across the TAF sites tonight. Generally VFR conditions are expected through at least 03Z/Thu, with Cigs mainly above 8000 FT AGL through this morning. As a weak cold front approaches from the north, Cigs will drop into the 4000-6000 FT AGL range from north to south between 16Z-20Z/Wed. These Cigs should persist into tonight, with a chance for some MVFR Cigs as the front passes through (which should be between 03Z-07Z/Thu from north to south). Best chance for MVFR Cigs would be at KPSF after 03Z/Thu. Isolated/scattered light snow showers or flurries may also occur as the front passes tonight, with better chances at KPSF. Light/variable winds will become west to northwest and increase to 5-10 KT by late morning, with a few gusts of 15-20 KT possible at KALB and KPSF. Winds will veer into the northwest to north tonight as the front passes through, with speeds remaining between 5-10 KT, although may briefly become light/variable at KPOU. Low level wind shear is possible through around 15Z/Wed at KPOU and KPSF, as surface winds remain light/variable generally under 5 KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL remain from the west at 30-35 KT. Outlook... Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydro issues are anticipated through the rest of the week. A northern stream disturbance will bring some light snow showers to the Adirondacks for tonight into Wednesday, otherwise, the rest of the area will remain fairly dry. No major storm systems are expected through the rest of the week and any additional light precip that does occur would be in the form of snow showers, which will have little to impact on rivers and streams. Temperatures should be close to normal for Wednesday, but mainly below normal for the rest of the week. Some snowmelt may occur during the daytime for valley areas as temperatures reach above freezing, but any melt will slow down or stop at night as temperatures fall back below freezing across the entire area. Due to the limited and diurnal nature of the melting, no flooding is expected, as any snowmelt looks to be rather slow and river flows won`t be increasing too rapidly at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...SND/Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL HYDROLOGY...Frugis

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